PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: The Striker previews Saturday’s Premier League action including Man City v Fulham, all previewed with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats via FACTMAN.
LEEDS V BOURNEMOUTH
3pm We have another busy Saturday in the Premier League this week on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! It’s a shame we don’t have an early kick off this Saturday with no 12-30pm game, but we kick the action off with Leeds host Bournemouth in the first of four 3pm games. Leeds recorded a massive 2-1 win away to Liverpool last weekend, and they needed that result as they would have been joint-bottom on nine points without it! That result was a compete bonus, but it does shoot them up to 15th and results like that always have a huge impact on the relegation battle was they are totally unexpected. Liverpool were trading around 1.35 to win that game before the off, but now Leeds have a massive confidence boost and a brilliant chance to follow that up with another three points here. Bournemouth have definitely improved lately, especially since sacking Scott Parker, but they remain odds on to go down this season. They just look short of Premier League quality to be honest, but I have to say I do have great respect for them – they are a limited side but they battle very well. That fighting spirit might actually keep them up this season! Bournemouth will be hoping that Southampton and Wolves don’t improve – I think those two have to go down to see Bournemouth safe.
Leeds come into this game trading odds on favourites – how quickly the market changes – prior to beating Liverpool Leeds went eight Premier League games without a win and they played Everton, Brentford, Aston Villa, Crystal Palace, Leicester and Fulham on that run too – basically most of the sides that are around them in the table. Ironically their best performance came here in a 1-0 loss to Arsenal when they created an xG of 2.35. Although the manager moaned about “boring” Aston Villa when the sides met here, they conceded an xG of 2.58 in that game and I wouldn’t say Leeds have been superb at home this season – they did hammer Chelsea 3-0 though. On balance, I feel the 1.79 on Leeds is too short, but I’m happy to look past the match odds market and back Over 2.5 goals here at 1.85. Both sides have been playing end-to-end football recently and we should have an open game here with lots of chances. Leeds are always entertaining to watch, and Bournemouth have been attacking more recently when they go behind. I’d be surprised if we didn’t see goals.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.85 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeeBou
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MANCHESTER CITY V FULHAM
3pm We have the shortest price of the weekend here as Manchester City host Fulham. The market is fully expecting a comfortable home win with City trading as short as 1.16 at the time of writing. Forget about that being the shortest price in the Premier League, it has to be one of the shortest prices around Europe this weekend! It will be interesting to see what involvement Erling Haaland has in the match or even squad. He missed the Champions League midweek and Guardiola said he wasn’t even training with the squad, but he hoped that he would be back for this game. We’ll just have to wait and see on that one, but he will make a big difference to the goal and handicap markets. I wouldn’t put too much weight on the Champions League result midweek anyway with City already certain of finishing top, and to be honest Guardiola doesn’t need to risk Haaland here in a game that they should win if he’s not 100%. I have to say that I have been very impressed with Fulham this season, they have almost completely removed themselves from the relegation discussion now and they start the weekend sitting up in seventh. They should come up short against this City side here though – but let’s be honest it’s very hard to get a result here. City had to work very hard to beat Leicester last weekend, and they couldn’t manage to create an xG of over 1.0.
City clearly weren’t at their best that day, and I would watch the team news closely here. Fulham based their success in the Championship last season on being rock solid at the back but they have been conceding high xG figures this season. To their credit though, they have been creating a lot of chances too. With City trading so short in the match odds market, we’re going to have to look around the side markets for some value here. The market is also expecting goals, with Over 2.5 goals as short as 1.33 – that’s mainly because the market is expect City to hammer Fulham but I don’t see them running riot. Over 3.5 goals is also odds on, and I’m happy to have a small bet on Under 3.5 goals at around 2.2. I fully expect City to win, but I think they’ll grind out a 2-0 or 3-0 win without getting out of second gear. We know sides have a very busy fixture list heading into the World Cup, and City can’t win every game 4-0+!
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 3.5 goals at 2.2 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MciFul
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NOTTINGHAM FOREST V BRENTFORD
3pm At the start of the season football fans could have called this a “massive relegation battle” but I think that’s unfair on Brentford now. It’s Nottingham Forest that are in big trouble, and they still sit bottom of the table. They were hammered last weekend 5-0 by Arsenal, but they did manage a shock 1-0 win against Liverpool prior to that, and I’m sure if you offered them three points from those two games without kicking a ball they have would have delighted! They still have major issues though, and they have to target fixtures like this to get points. When you look at the table it’s very hard to see Forest actually staying up. You’d expect to see Leicester move away from the bottom three, and then you have Leeds beating Liverpool recently and even Bournemouth are a few points ahead of them. They will need the likes of Aston Villa, Wolves and Southampton to drop a lot of points – which is possible but I’d say Forest will very likely be one of the three going down at the end of the season. That will leave the club in trouble with such a high wage bill now – interesting to see what they do in the January transfer window! From a Brentford point of view, you couldn’t be happier with their start to the season.
They start the weekend sitting up in 11th and if they could finish there at the end of the season that would be a great achievement. Don’t forget losing Christian Eriksen would have been a big blow too. He did so well for them last season and created so much. Brentford were unlucky not to beat Wolves last weekend, drawing 1-1 in a game where they created an xG figure of nearly double what they conceded. We have a very open market here, an Brentford are trading marginal favourites at 2.7. You’d have to be worried about them away from home this season though – they have yet to win away from home and they’ve shipped a lot of goals too. They have conceded 15 goals in their six away games this season, but obviously I am uncomfortable laying Brentford against a side like Nottingham Forest. Bournemouth played out a very cagey 0-0 draw with Brentford earlier in the season, and I do fancy a draw here – but I’m going to take a chance in the Correct Score market and have a small bet on 0-0 at 11.5.
The Striker Says:
One point win 0-0 Correct Score at 11.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NotBre
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WOLVES V BRIGHTON
3pm We finish the 3pm games with Wolves hosting Brighton. It will be very interesting to see how Wolves perform here – there’s no getting away from the fact that they are slap bang in the relegation battle now, but they have been much better at home compared to away. They’ve only lost twice here all season, and one of those games was against Manchester City. They lost their last home game 4-0 to Leicester, but they created an xG of 2.01 and should have at least made it closer. Leicester’s xG was only 0.89 so you could say they were lucky to win, but you can’t really say that when you win 4-0 – they just took their chances! Brighton have been fantastic this season, but unlike Leicester that day against Wolves, they haven’t been taking all their chances! They have been creating very close to two goals per game and they have been pretty good away from home. They won their opening three away games, they took the headlines on the opening weekend with a 2-1 win at Old Trafford too, but they are without a win in their last three away. Let’s not judge them on that though because they had to play Liverpool and Man City – they actually picked up a 3-3 draw with Liverpool, and then they lost 2-0 to Brentford but finished the game with an xG of 2.03.
There are definitely areas that Brighton can work on – they especially need a natural goal scoring striker – but in the main they are a solid side. They should get the job done here, I just want to not go mad with the stakes. Wolves have been pretty average this season, but as I said they have shown good signs at home. I would still have Brighton shorter than their current 2.24, but it’s not something I want to have a Max Bet on! Wolves are there for the taking, and I would fully expect Brighton to create more chances. The big question, as is always the question with this Brighton side, is will they take them? That has to be the big worry here and perhaps that is why we can get 2.24 on the away win rather than closer to 2.0. The 4-1 win over Chelsea was very impressive from Brighton last weekend though, and hopefully we see a similar performance here.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Brighton to beat Wolves at 2.24 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WolBri
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EVERTON V LEICESTER
5.30pm We finish a very interesting Saturday with Everton hosting Leicester. Although both sides have been pretty average this season, this is an interesting clash. Leicester have started to put some results together recently, but they still sit in the bottom three. I don’t see them staying there for long however – they have won three of their last six games now and although they are still playing average football they are the classic case of “too good to go down.” Ironically, they put in one of their better performances of the season when losing last weekend against Manchester City – they managed to hold them to an xG of just 0.73. That was the first time this season in the Premier League that a side kept City to an xG of under 1.0. They wouldn’t have been expected to win, and they can hold their heads high in a 1-0 defeat. Everton have been ticking along nicely this season after being involved in the relegation battle last season – you can see that they have made improvement this season. They are still an average side though, and you’d expect to see them finish in or around 12th where they started the weekend. When you look at the under-lining numbers for Everton, they are worrying.
For example, at the moment Everton are conceding an average of 0.9 goals per game, but their xG is double that at 1.8. Eventually, teams are going to start taking the chances Everton give them and that’s when they will run into problems. Leicester’s under-lining numbers have been poor too, but they aren’t conceding as many chances as Everton this season. I’m not surprised to see an open market here – if you look at the xG table both sides are actually right beside each other, and they have very similar profiles too. Leicester actually creep ahead of Everton on that table, but with home advantage Everton deserve to be favourites. I think we’ll have a very close game here between two evenly matched sides, and the draw is worth a small investment at 3.45. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 0-0 in this game either, but the 3.45 is a nice position to have the 1-1 outcome on our side too.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.45 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EveLei
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