PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker looks ahead to the Premier League games on New Year’s Eve with match previews, FACTMAN stats and recommended BETDAQ bets.
WOLVES V MANCHESTER UNITED
12.30pm It’s another busy day in the Premier League as we end 2022 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange It’s been a hectic Christmas and New Year period in the Premier League as always, and the action feels non-stop at the moment. We kick off another busy Saturday with Wolves hosting Manchester United. Both these sides returned to action with a win earlier in the week – the win for United was expected at home to Bournemouth, but Wolves recorded a huge win away to Everton. That’s really opened up the relegation race, and now Wolves are sitting in 18th just one point behind Everton and West Ham. With Everton having to play Manchester City away later in the day, Wolves have a better chance of getting points this weekend. That being said, Wolves have been pretty average this season and one win over Everton doesn’t change that given they have been involved in the relegation battle for a while now and barely only survived last season. United played pretty much as expected when beating Bournemouth 3-0 on Tuesday – they looked solid at the back too which is a welcome change from last season. Erik ten Hag is definitely making progress, but you always question United going into games like this away from home.
The market feels the same way in my opinion with United trading 1.98 at the time of writing. There will always be question marks about United away from home in tricky games at the moment, but I feel the 1.98 is worth backing here. Wolves have been very average this season, and one win over Everton doesn’t change that. As you would expect sitting in the bottom three, they are conceding more chances than they are creating however their main issues seem to be up front. Their average xG created per game is 1.1 this season, and they aren’t even converting that low figure. They have only scored close to half of that, and United should easily create more here. I’m not going to go mad with stakes because United haven’t exactly blown sides away this season, but they have been doing enough to beat a side like Wolves here. There really wasn’t much between Everton and Wolves; indeed Wolves conceded a higher xG than they created, and United have looked a better side without Ronaldo all season – they should be more settled now he’s gone.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Manchester United to beat Wolves at 1.98 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WolMun
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Wolves won their last Premier League meeting with Manchester United, 1-0 at Old Trafford in January. They last won consecutive league games against them between September 1979 and August 1980 (three in a row).
● Manchester United have won their last two Premier League away games against Wolves, winning in May and August 2021 – they’ve never won three consecutive league visits to Molineux before.
● After netting nine goals in two meetings with Wolves in the 2011-12 Premier League campaign (4-1 at home, 5-0 away), Manchester United have netted just nine goals in their last 11 meetings with Wolves in all competitions.
● Wolves have lost just one of their last nine league games played on New Year’s Eve (W4 D4), though it was in their last such match back in 2016 (1-2 at home to QPR).
● Manchester United haven’t lost their final league game in any of the last 10 calendar years (W7 D3), since a 3-2 defeat to Blackburn in 2011. That loss was also their only Premier League defeat on New Year’s Eve (W2 D1).
● Manchester United have won four of their last seven Premier League away games (D1 L2), having lost seven in a row on the road before this. They’ve scored in every game in this current run of seven, but the only time they scored more than twice saw them end up on the losing side (3-6 vs Manchester City in October).
● Wolves beat Everton 2-1 last time out in their first league game under Julen Lopetegui – he could become just the third manager to win his first two top-flight games in charge of Wolves, after Andy Beattie (November 1964) and Sammy Chung (August 1977).
● Wolves are looking to secure consecutive Premier League wins for the first time since March, which also included an away win against Everton. However, they’ve lost their last three home league games by an aggregate score of 9-2.
● Since their return to the Premier League in 2018, Wolves have scored eight 90th minute winning goals in the competition, including one against Everton last time out. Only Liverpool (10) and Tottenham (9) have netted more in this period.
● 40% of João Moutinho’s Premier League goals for Wolves have come against Manchester United (2/5). However, both of these strikes have come at Old Trafford, including the winner the last time the sides faced in January.
BOURNEMOUTH V CRYSTAL PALACE
3pm Plenty of action on Saturday afternoon with four games kicking off at 3pm. We start with Bournemouth hosting Crystal Palace, and both sides will be really looking at this game as a chance to claim three points. Bournemouth returned with a 3-0 loss away to Manchester United, but you can easily forgive them that. It’s games like this that will decide whether or not they stay in the Premier League. They haven’t slipped down to the relegation zone, but they are trading odds on to go down this season with the markets expecting them to struggle. It looks very competitive down towards the bottom of the table, and it actually looks like it’s going to be a cracking finish this season. Crystal Palace are sitting comfortably in mid-table, but they have been pretty average this season. When you look at their stats, they are comparable to sides sitting in the bottom three to be honest. They are conceding an average xG of 1.7 per game this season and only creating 1.1. That 1.1 is actually the same figure going forward as Wolves as mentioned above, who indeed do sit in the bottom three. Although they are “too good to go down” I wouldn’t be surprised to see Crystal Palace involved in the relegation battle at some stage. They definitely have the stats to support that view, but of course there are sides with less quality in their squad.
We have a very open market here, and it should be a very close game. Crystal Palace look a little short to me at 2.64 – I would have the odds a lot closer together to be honest. Bournemouth are trading 3.0 and although I wouldn’t fully commit to backing them, it’s definitely a better value bet than Crystal Palace. It’s nice to have the draw on our side here which is why I like the Crystal Palace lay. Bournemouth have very similar stats to Crystal Palace this season – they are conceding an average xG of 1.8 per game while only creating 0.9. I can see why Crystal Palace are favourites, but I just wouldn’t have such a big difference in the market between the sides. We should have a very close game here to be honest, and there won’t be much between them.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Crystal Palace to beat Bournemouth at 2.64 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BouCry
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Bournemouth have won just two of their 10 Premier League games against Crystal Palace (D4 L4), winning 2-1 in both February 2016 and October 2018.
● Having won just one of their first seven Premier League games against Bournemouth (D4 L2), Crystal Palace have won each of their last three against the Cherries.
● Crystal Palace have kept a clean sheet in three of their five Premier League away games against Bournemouth – only at Leicester (4) have the Eagles recorded more shutouts on the road in the competition.
● Bournemouth have won their last two league games played on New Year’s Eve, most recently a 3-0 victory over Swansea City in 2016.
● Crystal Palace won 3-0 against Norwich in their final league game of 2021, having not won their last game in any of the previous nine calendar years (D7 L2). They last won consecutive matches between 2001 and 2003 (3).
● Bournemouth are looking to win consecutive Premier League home games for the first time since February 2020, while their five goals scored in their last two home matches is more than they’d netted in their first six at the Vitality Stadium this season (4).
● Crystal Palace have won just one of their last nine away league games (D4 L4), failing to score in four of their last five on the road. The Eagles haven’t won outside of London in the Premier League since April, though that victory did come on the south coast (2-1 vs Southampton).
● Crystal Palace have failed to register a single shot on target in their last two Premier League games – since we have match-by-match shot data (2003-04), no team has ever failed to do so in three consecutive matches.
● Crystal Palace have lost their last two Premier League matches – only once have they lost three in a row under Patrick Vieira, doing so in November/December last year. Their two defeats have come against newly promoted Nottingham Forest and Fulham, with only two teams in top-flight history losing three in a row all against promoted teams: Norwich in April 1992 and Sunderland in April 2003.
● Kieffer Moore has scored three goals in his last two home Premier League games. Indeed, he’s the only Bournemouth player to score more than once at home this season, netting four of the Cherries’ nine league goals at the Vitality Stadium.
FULHAM V SOUTHAMPTON
3pm At the start of the season this fixture could have been viewed as a massive six-point relegation battle, but Fulham have been superb. They re-started their season with a cracking 3-0 win away to Crystal Palace, and now sit inside the top half of the table. Any talk of them being involved in the relegation battle is gone now. Unfortunately for Southampton, the same cannot be said about them. After the results on Boxing Day earlier in the week, they now sit at the bottom of the table. Things are very tight between the bottom five however, and a win would actually move them out of the bottom three if other results went their way. It’s not like they are detached sitting at the bottom of the table, and at the moment I would be more worried about their performances rather than their position. As you would expect looking at the table, they are conceding more chances than they are creating at the moment. Things aren’t very bleak looking at their stats though, and I wouldn’t have them odds on to go down yet. Fulham deserve to be the clear favourites coming into this game, but Southampton will view this game as a good chance to pick up points.
The Saints re-started their season with a 3-1 loss at home against Brighton, but they actually didn’t play that badly. They finished the game with an xG of over double what they conceded, and it was probably one of the better performances this season – they just didn’t get the result. It was their second highest xG of the season – ironically they also lost the game which they recorded their highest! Before the World Cup they had a reasonably difficult fixture list against Liverpool, Newcastle and Arsenal within four games but they have been creating more going forward. I don’t disagree with the market here that Fulham should be favourites, but the 2.1 is a little too short for me. I couldn’t put anyone off laying Fulham at the odds, but with Southampton creating more I feel we will see goals here. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.78 and that looks cracking value. Fulham have been involved in a lot of high scoring games this season, and they can add this one to the list.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FulSou
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Fulham have won just one of their last nine Premier League games against Southampton (D4 L4), picking up a 3-2 home win in November 2018.
● Southampton have won just one of their last 16 away league games against Fulham (D7 L8), a 3-0 victory in February 2014 under Mauricio Pochettino.
● Southampton have won just two of their last 15 Premier League games in London (D4 L9), with those victories coming consecutively at West Ham and Tottenham last season (both 3-2).
● Fulham’s final league game over each of the last four calendar years have produced a total of just three goals, with the Cottagers beating Huddersfield and Stoke 1-0 in 2018 and 2019 respectively, drawing 0-0 with Southampton in 2020 and losing 1-0 to Sheffield United last year.
● Southampton haven’t won their final league game in any of the last 11 calendar years (D6 L5) since beating Huddersfield 4-1 in 2010. When playing their final league game of a year away from home, Saints are winless in 15 (D6 L9), since beating Oxford 2-1 in 1975.
● Fulham have scored 82 goals in 39 league games in 2022 – it’s their highest number of league goals in a single calendar year since netting 85 in 2000.
● Southampton have lost eight of their last 10 Premier League away games (W2), with their 1-0 win at Bournemouth in October their only clean sheet in their last 22 on the road.
● Southampton have lost both of their two Premier League games under Nathan Jones – Saints have already had four managers lose each of their first three in charge of the club in the competition, more than any other side (Dave Jones, Stuart Gray, Nigel Adkins and Mark Hughes).
● Fulham are averaging 4.8 shots on target per game in the Premier League this season (77 in 16 games) – only in 2011-12 (5.1) have they had a higher such average in a single campaign in the competition.
● Aleksandar Mitrovic has scored 10 goals in just 13 Premier League appearances for Fulham this season, just one shy of his best return in a single campaign in the competition (11 in 2018-19).
MANCHESTER CITY V EVERTON
3pm Next we have the shortest price of the day as Manchester City host Everton. Although City are now under a lot of pressure in the title race with Arsenal still holding a decent lead, this should be a one way traffic. The market is very confident on the home win here with City trading as short as 1.17 at the time of writing. City returned to action with a pretty routine win over Leeds on Wednesday night – they scored three times and Haaland was on the mark – what is new? They finished the game with an xG of over 4 so they could have easily banged in more goals. Everton had a very different experience when they returned – they lost 2-1 at home to Wolves putting them under immense pressure in the relegation battle. That win for Wolves moved them only one point behind Everton, and now Everton face the toughest fixture possible in the Premier League. It will be very interesting to see how Lampard gets on over the next few weeks, and if things don’t turn around will he keep his job?
Realistically, we aren’t going to learn anything from this game. There’s too much of a gulf in class between the sides, and it’s very difficult to see past a City win here. I feel it’s more of a case of how many goals will they score rather than will they win. With that mind, we’ll have to look around the goal and handicap markets to find some value. Although Everton lost to Wolves on Boxing Day, they did finish the game with a higher xG figure – let’s not hit the panic button yet but they are so poor at the back it’s hard to see City not scoring a few times here. Everton are conceding an average xG of 1.8 per game in the Premier League, and City creating an average xG of 2.3! This game just screams an easy win for City, and City look a nice price at 2.05 to cover the 2.5 goal handicap.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Manchester City -2.5 goals to beat Everton at 2.05 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MciEve
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 11 home league games against Everton (W7 D4), having lost four in a row against them at the Etihad before this.
● Everton have lost each of their last nine Premier League games against Manchester City – only against Portsmouth have they ever lost more consecutively in their league history (13 between 1947 and 1956).
● Everton have won just four of their 30 Premier League away games against reigning champions (D6 L20), with each victory coming against a different side – Blackburn in 1995-96, Manchester United in 2013-14, Leicester in 2016-17 and Liverpool in 2020-21.
● Manchester City have lost their final league game in just one of the last 21 calendar years (W11 D9), going down 1-0 at Liverpool in 2016. However, the Citizens are winless in all four of their Premier League games played on New Year’s Eve (D3 L1).
● Everton are unbeaten in their last six league matches played on New Year’s Eve (W4 D2), though this is their first such match since a 1-0 win at Sunderland in 2005.
● Manchester City’s 2-1 defeat to Brentford in their last home league match ended a run of 11 straight wins at the Etihad Stadium. Four of their last five home league defeats – including the one against Brentford – have been due to 90th minute winning goals from the opposition.
● No side has lost more Premier League away games so far in 2022 than Everton (12). The Toffees last lost more on the road in a single calendar year in 1999 (13).
● After conceding just 12 goals in their first 13 Premier League games this season, at an average of 0.9 per game, Everton have now shipped seven in their last three matches (2.3 per game).
● Man City’s Phil Foden has scored three goals in his last four Premier League games against Everton, while he’s also had a hand in nine goals in eight league appearances at the Etihad this season (6 goals, 3 assists).
● Erling Haaland has scored 17 goals in 11 home games for Manchester City in all competitions this season – the last player to net more in a single campaign at the Etihad was Sergio Agüero in 2018-19 (19 in 20 games).
NEWCASTLE V LEEDS
3pm We finish the 3pm kick offs with Newcastle host Leeds. Newcastle fans have been living the dream this season, and they returned with a comfortable 3-0 win away to Leicester on Boxing Day. It’s fair to say that most football fans will “expect” them to fall out of the Top Four as the season goes on, but their performances have been top notch. With Spurs and Chelsea dropping points, and who knows how reliable Manchester United are these days – you have to say that Newcastle have a fantastic chance at actually finishing in the Top Four. It would be an absolute dream if they could do that this season now they have big money backing them with their new owners – Champions League football will attract higher quality players way more quickly than expected. I felt they might only compete for a Europa League spot this season, maybe not even get one, and then make more summer signings etc but they have been superb this season. With Leeds struggling and conceding plenty of chances, Newcastle will be looking at this game as another great chance at getting three points.
While Newcastle started the season not expected to be sitting this high in the table, they are playing the quality of football that deserves to finish Top Four. They are creating an average xG of 2.0 per game and only conceding 1.1. Not only have they been excellent going forward, they have been rock solid at the back too. It’s clear that they are full of confidence at the moment, and they are worth backing here at 1.5. Newcastle have offered us a lot of value this season, and I’m happy to back them again. When you compare the stats to Leeds there’s only one winner here in my opinion – Leeds are conceding an average xG of 1.9 whereas Newcastle are creating more than that. With home advantage, this should be another three points from Newcastle – what a story they have been this season!
The Striker Says:
Three points win Newcastle to beat Leeds at 1.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NewLee
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Newcastle won 1-0 in their last Premier League match against Leeds, last beating them in consecutive top-flight matches between December 2000 and January 2002 (a run of four).
● Leeds are unbeaten in their last three away league games against Newcastle (W1 D2) – they’ve never gone four without defeat at St James’ Park before.
● Before Newcastle last faced Leeds in January, they were second-bottom of the Premier League with 12 points, one win in 20 games and were 10 points behind the Whites. Since and including that game – a 1-0 win for Newcastle – the Magpies have earned 70 points, more than double the amount Leeds have.
● Newcastle haven’t won their final league game in any of the last five calendar years (D4 L1) since beating Nottingham Forest 3-1 in the Championship in 2016. They last won their final such game as a top-flight side in 2014 (3-2 vs Everton).
● Having failed to win their final league game in any of the nine calendar years between 2010 and 2018 (D3 L6), Leeds have now won their last game in two of the last three.
● This is Leeds’ first league game on New Year’s Eve since 2011, and a 4-1 defeat at Barnsley. Meanwhile, Newcastle have lost seven of their last eight games on the day (W1), with this their first since a 2-0 loss at Spurs in 2005.
● Only Liverpool (45) and Manchester City (43) have earned more home points than Newcastle (40) in the Premier League in 2022. The Magpies last earned more points at St James’ Park in a single calendar year in 2016 (42), while they last did so when spending 100% of their time in the Premier League in 2002 (47).
● Newcastle have won each of their last six Premier League games, last having a longer such run in September/October 1996 (7 under Kevin Keegan).
● Newcastle’s Miguel Almirón has scored nine goals in his last 14 Premier League games, as many as he had in his first 112 appearances in the competition. He could become just the second Paraguayan to reach double figures in a single Premier League campaign, after Roque Santa Cruz in 2007-08 (19).
● Chris Wood has scored two goals in his last three Premier League games, as many as he had in his first 29 appearances for Newcastle. The Magpies have won all four league games in which he’s scored, with three of the four goals proving to be the winning strike.
BRIGHTON V ARSENAL
5.30pm We finish 2022 with Brighton hosting Arsenal! You have to say it’s been a brilliant 2022 for Arsenal, and now the question is can they keep their good run going into 2023? The World Cup took away all the talking points when Manchester City lost to Brentford on the final weekend before the break, and that has somewhat taken the pressure off Arsenal. They have a sizable lead now, and that pressure is just going to creep on from here – the big question now is can they handle it? Arsenal have been known to crumble under pressure over the last few years, and it will be interesting to see how their title bid goes over the next month or so. They come into this game trading odds against to win – they are currently trading 2.18 at the time of writing. Both sides recorded 3-1 wins on Boxing Day, and Brighton have been very impressive this season. This will be a tough test for Arsenal, and I wouldn’t be rushing to back them at 2.18 here. It’s games like this that will decide the title; everyone is just waiting for them to slip up but in fairness to them they have put in some impressive displays under pressure away from home so far. They will be fully tested at the back here, because Brighton have been creating an average xG of 1.8 this season.
While I feel the Arsenal price at 2.18 is a little short, I wouldn’t have a very strong opinion on their price. They have surprised me at times this season, and as I said above handled themselves well in difficult situations away from home. I’m happy to sit out of the match odds market here. This game just screams goals to me – Brighton have been excellent going forward but they have also leaked chances too – Over 2.5 goals looks a very nice price at 1.91. Both sides are showing very high average xG’s of very close to 3 goals per Premier League game they are involved in this season with Brighton recording 3.1 and Arsenal 2.9 – Arsenal’s actual figure is actually higher at 3.2. It’s hard to see this game not being entertaining as both sides like to attack, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a very open game if we get an early goal. I was very surprised to see Over 2.5 goals trading as big as 1.91, and I’m happy with a Max Bet at those odds!
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.91 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BriArs
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Brighton have lost just one of their five Premier League home games against Arsenal (W2 D2), a 1-0 loss in December 2020.
● Brighton are one of just three teams that Arsenal have lost (4) more Premier League games than they’ve won (3) against, along with Manchester United (W17 L26) and Liverpool (W17 L25).
● Brighton beat Arsenal 3-1 in the League Cup in November this season – only once have they beaten the Gunners twice in the same campaign, winning both Premier League meetings in 2019-20. Indeed, victory here would also be the first time they’ve ever won three in a row against Arsenal in all competitions.
● Brighton have lost their final league game in just one of the last six calendar years (W3 D2), though that defeat did come at home to Arsenal in their final game of 2020.
● Arsenal have won just two of their last seven league games played on New Year’s Eve (D3 L2), beating Aston Villa 3-0 in 1988 and QPR 1-0 in 2011.
● This is Brighton’s first league game on New Year’s Eve since 2011, and a 2-0 defeat away against Coventry. Overall, they’ve lost five of their last seven New Year’s Eve league games (W1 D1), with the only victory in that run coming against Birmingham City in 1988.
● Arsenal have kept six clean sheets in their eight Premier League away games this season (more than any other side), as many as they’d managed in 19 games on the road last term. However, the two games in which they conceded are the only two away games they’ve failed to win this season (1-3 vs Man Utd, 1-1 vs Southampton).
● Brighton have lost two of their four home league games under Roberto De Zerbi (W1 D1), having been unbeaten in their final seven at the Amex Stadium under Graham Potter (W4 D3).
● Brighton forward Danny Welbeck has scored four goals in his last five games against Arsenal in all competitions, in a run stretching back to Man Utd’s 8-2 win over the Gunners in August 2011. He’s also netted against them this season, doing so in the Seagulls’ 3-1 win in the League Cup in November.
● Martin Ødegaard is Arsenal’s highest scorer away from home in the Premier League this season (4 goals), netting braces at both Bournemouth and Wolverhampton Wanderers. Only five players have ever scored multiple goals in 3+ away games in a single Premier League campaign for the Gunners – Ian Wright (3 in 1993-94), Dennis Bergkamp (3 in 1997-98), Emmanuel Adebayor (4 in 2007-08), Robin van Persie (3 in 2011-12) and Alexis Sánchez (3 in 2016-17).
