PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker looks ahead to Saturday’s Premier League games which start at 12.30pm with the small matter of the Manchester derby !!! All games previewed with FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MANCHESTER UNITED V MANCHESTER CITY
12.30pm It’s a wonderful Saturday in the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week! We head into the weekend with plenty of talking points, and we start Saturday with the biggest one of all in the Manchester Derby! It’s going to be a huge weekend in the title race with Spurs hosting Arsenal tomorrow, and we’re going to know a lot more by the end of the weekend. Manchester United come into this game on a long winning run now, although it was broken by the World Cup break, and you have to say that they have had an easy fixture list. Nevertheless they will take the confidence of a winning side into this game and it will be very interesting to see how they get on against their local rivals. City have completely outplayed United in their recent meetings – they’ve scored ten goals in the last two meetings, and United players have mainly be criticised for giving up after going behind, almost like they had no belief they would get a result. Whatever happens here, it will be interesting to see how the United players handle themselves – from the outside, it looks like ten Hag has filled them with confidence but this is a massive test. City come into the game off the back of a shock loss to Southampton in the Carabao Cup midweek – I’m not sure where that loss came from, but they could have easily had one eye on this fixture and took the Cup game too lightly.
City come into the game trading as the odds on favourites. They are currently trading 1.88 at the time of writing, with Manchester United 4.5 and the draw 4.0. We have got used to seeing City odds on, sometimes long odds on, to beat their city rivals but I would expect to see United go into this game with some hope given the way things have gone recently. The loss against Southampton would have raised a few eyebrows, but I would expect to see City get back to winning ways here. Although United have put this nice run together, they have been playing clubs down the table – I think reality is going to hit, and I wouldn’t be surprised if City banged in a few goals before half-time too. While I’m very confident on the away win, I’m even more confident on Over 2.5 goals. This United side will attack back, and they should make for a very end-to-end game with plenty of chances. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.75 which isn’t too far off the City price, but I feel this game screams goals and the 1.75 is a cracking price. It’s a Max Bet for me in what should be another very entertaining Manchester Derby.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MunMun
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Manchester United have lost more Premier League home games against Manchester City than they have versus any other opponent (8), while no side has beaten the Red Devils more often overall in the competition than the Citizens (18, level with Chelsea and Liverpool).
● Manchester City are looking to complete the Premier League double over Manchester United for the sixth time, which would be more often than any other side in the competition’s history (Liverpool also 5).
● Manchester United have conceded 12 goals in their last three Premier League meetings with Man City, including six in their meeting at the Etihad Stadium in October. It’s as many goals as they’d shipped against the Citizens in their 12 previous meetings combined.
● This is the earliest into a calendar year the Manchester Derby has been played in the Premier League since 2006, when Manchester City won 3-1 at the Etihad on January 14th.
● Following their 6-3 win against Man Utd in October, Manchester City are looking to equal or break their record number of league goals scored against their rivals in a season, scoring eight against them in 1954- 55 (3-2 home, 5-0 away). The most goals the Red Devils have conceded against an opponent in a Premier League season is nine against Liverpool in 2021-22.
● Since and including their win over Liverpool on August 22nd, no team has won more points in the Premier League than Manchester United (35), winning 11 of their 15 games in this time (D2 L2). They had lost each of their four league games before this.
● This will be Pep Guardiola’s 500th game of his top-flight managerial career, taking charge of 152 in LaLiga with Barcelona, 102 in the Bundesliga with Bayern Munich, and this will be his 246th in the Premier League with Man City. The Spaniard has won 379 of his 499 games to date (76% – D68 L52), with this the most wins and best win rate (100+ games) of any manager in Europe’s big-five leagues since Guardiola’s first top-flight season in 2008-09.
● Both Erling Haaland and Phil Foden scored hat-tricks for Man City in their 6-3 win over Man Utd in the reverse fixture. The last player to score in both Premier League meetings for the Citizens against Man Utd in a season was Sergio Agüero (2014-15), and the last Englishman to do so was Shaun Wright-Phillips (2003-04), while no Man City player has ever scored 2+ goals in both league meetings.
● Marcus Rashford has scored in his last three Premier League appearances for Manchester United and is looking to score in four in a row for the first time since January 2019. However, he hasn’t scored in any of his last five appearances against Man City in the competition, managing just one shot on target in these games.
● Against Chelsea last time out, Riyad Mahrez scored Man City’s 50th Premier League goal by a substitute under Pep Guardiola (excl. own goals), with only Man Utd (57) having more goals by substitutes in the competition since 2016-17. Mahrez has scored nine of those goals, the most of any substitute in Guardiola’s entire managerial top-flight career.
BRIGHTON V LIVERPOOL
3pm We have four games kicking off at 3pm, the first of which is Brighton hosting Liverpool. It hasn’t been a good return to action after the World Cup for Liverpool as they lost to Brentford last weekend. I think the general feeling was that they would make a run at the Top Four when we re-started after the World Cup, but what we’ve watched on field is that Klopp still hasn’t fixed all their issues at the back. I have to say I was surprised with how poor Liverpool have been at the back – especially given Klopp had all the time during the World Cup to form a plan. They were all over the place against Brentford, and then could only manage a 2-2 draw with Wolves in the FA Cup at the weekend. Another fixture in the replay that they didn’t need to be honest. Given how good Brighton have been going forward this season, it’s easy to understand why Liverpool are trading odds against here. I’m sure they’ll be a popular bet at 2.12 given they usually start at much lower odds each week, but I really wouldn’t be rushing to back them here at the odds. They have just conceded too many sloppy goals this season.
Brighton might have only played Everton and Middlesbrough in their last two games, but they did score nine goals in those two games, and that’s not the stat Liverpool fans want to see! I have to say I wouldn’t be surprised to see Brighton get a result here, but I’m going to stay away from the match odds market here because it’s hard to get away from Over 2.5 goals at 1.62. Liverpool games just scream goals at the moment, and this one is no different. We have landed some nice bets on Overs in Liverpool games recently, but I feel Brighton are the perfect opponent here for goals too so I’m happy to have a Max Bet on Over 2.5 goals at 1.62. Brighton are creating an average xG of 1.8 per game this season which is clearly impressive – put that together with their average conceded of 1.4, and then you see Liverpool are conceding an average xG of 1.7 per game this season which is incredibly high and I can only see another end-to-end game involving Liverpool here. Overs looks a cracking bet.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.62 on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BriLiv
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Brighton have won just one of their 11 Premier League games against Liverpool (D3 L7), a 1-0 win at Anfield in February 2021.
● Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 10 away league games against Brighton (W5 D5), winning four of their five visits to the Amex Stadium in the Premier League (D1).
● Brighton won none of their first five Premier League games under Roberto De Zerbi (D2 L3) but have won four of their last six under the Italian (L2). The Seagulls converted just 6% of their shots in their first five games under him (4/68) but have scored with 21% of their shots in the last six games (17/80).
● Liverpool have lost three of their last seven Premier League games (W4), as many as in their previous 37 games combined (W26 D8). The Reds haven’t started a calendar year with two league defeats in a row since 1993 against Aston Villa and Wimbledon.
● Brighton have scored 32 Premier League goals in their 17 games in the 2022-23 season, exactly twice as many as they had at this stage in 2021-22 (16). It’s the most the Seagulls have scored at this stage of a league season since 1976-77 under Alan Mullery (39).
● Liverpool have earned just 28.6% of their Premier League points this season away from home (8/28), the lowest ratio in the division. However, Brighton have won the lowest share of their points in home games this term (41% – 11/27).
● Leandro Trossard has scored five Premier League goals for Brighton against Liverpool, including a hat-trick in the reverse fixture in October. Only Pascal Groß (6 vs Man Utd) has scored more goals for the Seagulls against a specific opponent in the competition.
● Among Brighton players to play at least 250 minutes in the Premier League this season, Kaoru Mitoma averages the most touches in the opposition box per 90 minutes (7.1) and most completed dribbles per 90 (2.2). He could also become the first Japanese player to score in three consecutive Premier League appearances.
● Liverpool will be without the injured Virgil van Dijk for this game – the Reds are, however, unbeaten in their last 14 Premier League games when the Dutchman hasn’t started (W11 D3) since losing 1-0 at home to Fulham in March 2021.
● Brighton forward Evan Ferguson has scored in his last two Premier League appearances – aged 18 years and 87 days on the day of this game, Ferguson could become the third-youngest player to score in three consecutive Premier League appearances, behind Danny Cadamarteri (18 years, 6 days) and Michael Owen (18 years, 12 days). The Irishman would be the youngest non-English player to do so.
EVERTON V SOUTHAMPTON
3pm We have three more fixtures kicking off at 3pm, and they are all going to have a massive impact on the relegation battle. This is probably the biggest afternoon in the relegation battle of the season given all the sides involved, and I’m sure we’ll have plenty of drama! We start with Everton hosting Southampton, and this is probably the biggest game of the three with both sides sitting in the bottom three. Southampton have returned from the World Cup with three losses to sit bottom of the table. Although they broke that losing run in the FA Cup with a win away to Crystal Palace and then followed that up with a shock win over Manchester City midweek in the Carabao Cup, I’m sure they would have preferred if those fixtures were Premier Leagues game because they desperately need the points! Everton, somehow, managed a 1-1 draw away to Manchester City but losses against Wolves and Brighton have put them back into the bottom three. That loss against Wolves on Boxing Day was a massive blow, and it puts them in big danger again. It’s obvious that Southampton are in bigger trouble compared to Everton, and a loss here for the Saints would likely see them go very short odds to go down. High stakes game ahead!
Everton come into the game as decent favourites – they are currently trading 2.26 at the time of writing with Southampton 3.55 and the draw 3.45. Both sides have clearly been playing average football this season, and I was surprised to see Everton trading as short as 2.26 when I clicked into the market. I’m going to keep stakes low here because I expect a low quality game, but Everton look a good value lay at 2.26. I know we are supporting Southampton, which hasn’t proven profitable this season, but I just expect a closer game than those odds suggest. Everton have been poor at home this season, they sit in the bottom three on the home form table too so Southampton can grind out a result here. Everton have actually been conceding more chances than Southampton this season, so maybe we might see a huge away win here too. What a week that would be for Southampton after beating City in the Carabao Cup midweek!
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Everton to beat Southampton at 2.26 on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EveSou
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Following their 2-1 win at St Mary’s in October, Everton are looking to complete their first Premier League double over Southampton since 2001-02.
● Southampton are winless in their last 17 Premier League away games against Everton (D5 L12), since a 2-0 victory in November 1997.
● Everton have lost their last two Premier League games against sides bottom of the table, going down 2-1 against both Norwich (January 2022) and Wolves (December 2022). None of the six ever-present Premier League sides have ever lost three in a row against teams starting the day at the foot of the table before.
● Everton have lost their last three home Premier League games. The Toffees haven’t lost four in a row on home soil in the league since a run of seven defeats between April and September 1958.
● Southampton have lost their last six Premier League games – they’ve never lost seven consecutive league games in their history.
● Everton have conceded 17 goals in their last 10 Premier League games, after conceding just seven in their first eight games this season. However, in their first eight games their opponents scored around six goals fewer than their xG would have suggested (13.1 xG, 7 conceded), whereas in their last 10 games their xG against has been 17.6 (17 conceded).
● Two of Southampton’s three Premier League victories this season have come away from home, beating Leicester in August and Bournemouth in October. However, Saints have lost more away games than any other side in the Premier League this term (7).
● Excluding own goals, Southampton have conceded from 13.6% of their shots faced in the Premier League this season (30 goals conceded from 221 shots), a league-high ratio. Meanwhile, only Newcastle (5.5%) have conceded a lower percentage of their shots faced than Everton this term (8.1% – 24/296).
● Southampton have lost all four of their Premier League games under Nathan Jones so far. Including caretakers, only four managers have ever lost their first five games in charge in the competition – Mick McCarthy (2003), Chris Hughton (1997-2010), Eric Black (2007-2016) and Scott Parker (2019).
● Since the start of last season, Demarai Gray has scored more Premier League goals than any other current Everton player (8), despite enduring runs of 21 games (December 2021 to August 2022) and 13 games (August 2022 to December 2022) without a goal in that time.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V LEICESTER
3pm We have the first of two very open markets here as Nottingham Forest host Leicester. The market is finding it hard to pick a favourite here with just six ticks between the sides, but at the moment Leicester are marginal favourites at 2.74. Leicester are your classic “too good to go down” side, but for the time being they are in the relegation discussion. They moved out of the bottom three with a good run before the World Cup, but the World Cup came at a bad time for them and they have re-started their season with three losses putting them back in a little danger. They look like they are sitting comfortably when you glance at the table, but they are only two points away from the bottom three despite starting the weekend sitting in 13th. They did have to play Newcastle and Liverpool in that run so it was a tricky fixture list, but it was disappointing to see them lose away to Fulham and then they were completely outplayed by Newcastle in the Carabao Cup midweek after “only” beating Gillingham 1-0 in the FA Cup last weekend. When I look at the Leicester performances, I just have no confidence in them and it will be interesting to see can they get a result here.
Nottingham Forest are still one of the favourites to go down this season, but they have definitely turned the momentum around in recent times. They aren’t odds on for relegation anymore, and that win over Southampton last week was huge. The loss against Blackpool in the FA Cup was surprising, but I’m not sure they’ll be too bothered. Picking up a point here against Chelsea was also a great boost, and whatever happens they have given themselves an excellent fighting chance of staying up now. The market is correct here in the sense that we should see a very close game, and while it’s only very marginal I don’t agree with Leicester being the favourites here. I’m happy with a small stakes lay on the away side – Nottingham Forest come into this game in the better place and they should be able to get another result.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Leicester to beat Nottingham Forest at 2.74 on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NotLei
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● This is Nottingham Forest’s first home league match against Leicester since February 2014 (2-2). They’ve lost just one of their last 17 at home against the Foxes (W11 D5), losing 3-2 in May 2013.
● Leicester are looking to complete their first league double over Nottingham Forest since 1971-72, a season that saw Forest relegated from the top-flight.
● Leicester have never scored a Premier League away goal against Nottingham Forest, with their three visits to the City Ground in the competition producing just three goals (2x 1-0 defeats and a 0-0 draw).
● Following a 1-0 win at Southampton last time out, Nottingham Forest are looking to secure consecutive Premier League victories for the first time this season. They’ve won seven points from their last four league games (W2 D1 L1), as many as they had in their previous 12 beforehand (W1 D4 L7).
● Leicester City lost their opening league game of 2023, losing 1-0 to Fulham. The Foxes haven’t started a year with two consecutive league defeats since 2006 in the Championship, while in the Premier League they haven’t since 2001 against Bradford and Ipswich.
● All four of Nottingham Forest’s Premier League victories this season have been by a 1-0 scoreline, with the Tricky Trees picking up just four points from the 13 games in which they’ve conceded at least once (D4 L9).
● Leicester have lost their last two Premier League games against newly promoted teams, losing to Bournemouth and Fulham, last losing more in a row between January and August 2001 (four in a row).
● Nottingham Forest have fired fewer shots on target than any other side in the Premier League this season (54), with only Wolves (11) scoring fewer goals than Steve Cooper’s side (13).
● All four of Taiwo Awoniyi’s Premier League goals for Nottingham Forest this season have been the opening goal of the game, with three of those proving to be the only goal. The last player to score in four 1-0 wins in a single Premier League campaign was Salomón Rondón in 2015-16, while the last player to see each of his first five Premier League goals all be the opener of a match was Sadio Mané (first six from October 2014 to March 2015).
● Leicester’s Jamie Vardy has scored just one goal in his 18 Premier League appearances this season, his fewest goals after 18 league appearances in a season since 2014-15 (also one). This game could be his first aged 36 in the Premier League, with only four outfield players appearing aged 36+ for the Foxes (Roberto Mancini, Les Ferdinand, Marcin Wasilewski & Wes Morgan).
WOLVES V WEST HAM
3pm We finish the 3pm games with another huge game at the bottom of the table as Wolves host West Ham. Although I said above Everton v Southampton was the biggest game in the relegation battle today, this game is very close behind. West Ham are sitting just outside the bottom three but they have the same amount of points as Everton while Wolves are sitting in 19th. It wasn’t so long ago that both these sides battled for European spots, but they have been playing average football this season. I don’t think there’s a question about West Ham going down – they are simply too good and at stages last season they were involved in the Top Four battle, but for Wolves they have been poor for a while now and they are in big trouble this season. They just aren’t creating enough in front of goal, and they aren’t even taking their low amount of chances either. They have scored the lowest amount of goals in the Premier League this season at 11, and because they aren’t solid at the back any more like they used to be, that all means that they aren’t winning many games. That being said, they have picked up a few points recently. They managed a huge win away to Everton on Boxing Day, and then picked up a point away to Aston Villa too. They nearly held on for a draw here against Manchester United in the middle of those games too, so West Ham are going to have to work very hard to win here.
Just like the Nottingham Forest v Leicester fixture above, the market is having a hard time trying to decide the favourite here. This time there’s only four ticks between the sides, and we have a very open and even betting heat. Wolves are the marginal favourites at 2.8, but there really isn’t much between them. West Ham have slightly better stats when you look at their xG figures, but they are hardly impressive – they are basically creating what they are conceding this season. That’s still better than Wolves who are conceding more than they are creating! Neither side are reliable coming into this game, and I just don’t want to support West Ham in their current form. The best option looks to be a small investment on Under 2.5 goals at 1.76. Both sides have struggled to score goals this season, and we’re sure to have a very tense affair given how big this game is for both sides. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a full-time score of 0-0!
The Striker Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 1.76 on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WolWes
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Wolves have lost four of their last five Premier League games against West Ham, though they did win their last home game against them in November 2021.
● West Ham are looking to win three consecutive league games against Wolves for the first time since a run of eight between 1920 and 1958.
● Wolves have won four points in their three league games under Julen Lopetegui so far (W1 D1 L1), as many as they had in their previous nine before his arrival. However, they’ve lost their last four at home, last having a longer losing run at Molineux in the Premier League between January and April 2012 (9).
● West Ham are winless in their last six Premier League games, their longest such run since a run of seven between January and February 2020. Away from home they’re winless in seven (D2 L5), their longest run in the Premier League on the road since between December 2019 and July 2020 (8).
● Wolves have scored just 11 goals in the Premier League this season, fewer than any other side. Just three of those have come in the second half of matches, both a league-low total and proportion (27%) in the competition this term.
● West Ham have conceded at least twice in each of their last five Premier League games, last having a longer run of conceding multiple goals in the division in March/April 2019 (6).
● 26.7% of West Ham’s Premier League goals this season have come from the penalty spot, a higher share than any other side (4/15). Indeed, in Premier League history only Crystal Palace have scored a higher share from the spot in a single campaign (26.8% in 2004-05).
● West Ham’s Jarrod Bowen has scored four goals in his last five Premier League games against Wolves, netting more goals against them than he has any other opponent in the competition.
● Daniel Podence has scored two goals in his last three Premier League games for Wolves, as many as he had in his previous 19 beforehand. Eight of his 10 Premier League goals overall have come in the first half of games, including each of his last five.
● West Ham’s Gianluca Scamacca scored his first Premier League goal in the reverse fixture against Wolves – he’s never scored home and away against an opponent in the same season in his top-flight career.
BRENTFORD V BOURNEMOUTH
5.30pm We finish a fascinating day with Brentford hosting Bournemouth. This is another game that’s going to have a big impact on the relegation battle, and Bournemouth are going to know what has happened in all the 3pm fixtures before they kick off. When you look at the relegation odds, Bournemouth are still the clear favourites but they start the weekend sitting outside the bottom three. Their stats are very poor – they are conceding an average xG of 1.8 per game and only creating 0.9 in the Premier League this season, but they have grinded out a few results and that’s to their credit. They might have some very average performances, but there’s fight in them – the worrying thing from a Bournemouth point of view is they seem to slip down the table as the weeks go past, and eventually they’ll be sitting in the bottom three. At least that’s what the betting markets are expecting anyway! Brentford should get the job done here, and they will be a popular bet at 1.69 on Saturday afternoon. Bournemouth have been very poor away from home this season; only managing five points from their nine away games – that’s the joint worst return in the Premier League this season.
Brentford would have been disappointed to lose 1-0 to West Ham in the FA Cup last weekend, but they are flying in the Premier League at the moment. Since returning from the World Cup they have drawn 2-2 with Spurs and beaten Liverpool 3-1, along with beating West Ham 2-0. You can see by their xG figures that they are creating a lot going forward, but not only that – they aren’t conceding too many chances either. They kept Spurs down to an xG of just 1.05 and then Liverpool to 1.97 (they created more at 2.51). Both of those performances came at home, and if they can perform anywhere close to that level then they should get the job done here. Bournemouth have been so poor away from home this season, it’s hard to see past a Brentford win here so I’m keeping things simple and going with the 1.69. I couldn’t put anyone off Over 2.5 goals either, but it’s the Brentford win for me.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Brentford to beat Bournemouth at 1.69 on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BreBou
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Brentford have won three of their last four league games against Bournemouth (D1), more than they had in their previous 14 against them (W2 D6 L6).
● Bournemouth are winless in their last seven away league games against Brentford (D4 L3), losing their last two visits in February 2015 and December 2020.
● Brentford are winless in their three Premier League games against promoted sides so far this season (D2 L1), drawing 0-0 with Bournemouth in the reverse fixture in October.
● Brentford are unbeaten in their last six Premier League matches (W3 D3), last enjoying a longer run without defeat in the top-flight between December 1937 and January 1938 (7).
● Bournemouth have lost 18 of their last 23 away Premier League matches (W3 D2), losing the last four in a row. They’ve only kept one clean sheet in this run, a 1-0 win at Chelsea in December 2019.
● Bournemouth have had just 144 shots in their 18 Premier League games so far this season, with their average of eight shots per match the lowest on record by any side in a single campaign (since 1997-98).
● Bournemouth have shipped 29 goals in their nine away Premier League matches this season, the joint most after nine away games in a season (also Sheffield Wednesday in 1999-00 and Burnley in 2009-10).
● Including penalties, only Fulham have scored more set-piece goals than Brentford (13) in the Premier League this season, while Bournemouth (18) have conceded more such goals than any other side.
● Brentford have the best shot conversion rate of any Premier League side so far this season (16.3%). Since the restart after the World Cup, the Bees have scored with 25% of their total shots in the competition (7 goals from 28 shots).
● Bournemouth goalkeeper Mark Travers has conceded 39 goals in 14 Premier League appearances so far – only one goalkeeper has ever conceded 40+ goals in their first 15 games, with David Watson doing so for Barnsley in the 1997-98 season (41).
