PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: The Striker looks ahead to a bumper eight-match Premier League Saturday starting with Aston Villa v Arsenal at 12.30pm. All matches include FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ASTON VILLA V ARSENAL
12.30pm We have a huge Premier League Saturday on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week with a bumper eight fixtures taking place! We kick the day off with Aston Villa hosting Arsenal, and it’s been a huge week for Arsenal. After dropping points against Everton and Brentford they went into the game with Manchester City Wednesday night with the position at the top of the table up grabs. Unfortunately for Arsenal, they gave up their lead to Manchester City, and now they find themselves sitting behind City on goal difference. There were signs of Arsenal not handling the pressure over the last few weeks – as I said at the time that FA Cup clash against City was very important from a mental point of view and Arsenal haven’t been the same since. They were totally outplayed away to Everton, and in the 1-1 draw against Brentford they conceded a higher xG figure than they created. The only good news for Arsenal is that now they can start again – whether or not they have the talent to still win the title is a big question – although the gap looked big, it was closed quite quickly! How they react now is very important, and from that point of view this is a must win game.
They come into the game trading odds on, currently 1.89 at the time of writing, and I’m sure there will be some big opinions on their price either side of the book. Aston Villa have conceded seven goals in their last two Premier League games, but included in that was a fixture against Manchester City which you can always forgive them – conceding four against Leicester was probably more worrying! Arsenal have been fantastic away from home, and I would definitely lean towards them if I was having a bet in the match odds market. From the same number of away games this season, Arsenal have managed five more points than City to sit clear at the top of the away form table. Although I feel they will win the game, I’m not backing them. There are too many questions – and their last performance away to Everton was very poor. The bet that jumps off the page is Over 2.5 goals at 2.02 – Aston Villa have had plenty of open games recently and they will know if they attack Arsenal they will cause them problems, and then Arsenal have been superb going forward this season too. I’m going to keep stakes limited, but Overs looks a very nice option.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.02 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AstArs
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● After winning three consecutive Premier League games against Arsenal from July 2020 to February 2021, Aston Villa have now lost each of their last three against the Gunners.
● Only against West Ham United (14) have Arsenal won more Premier League away games than they have against Aston Villa (13), though they have lost two of their last three visits to Villa Park.
● Aston Villa lost 4-2 against Leicester in their last home league game, but haven’t lost consecutive matches at Villa Park since April last year. However, one of those defeats back then was against Arsenal.
● Arsenal have lost their last two away games in all competitions, as many as they had in their first 14 on the road this term (W11 D1). They last lost three on the bounce away from home in December 2021, while they’ve not lost three in a row without scoring since December 2009.
● Aston Villa have lost their last two Premier League games, as many as they had in their previous nine (W6 D1). They’ve shipped seven goals across these two defeats, as many as they had in their previous seven Premier League games combined.
● Nine of Aston Villa’s 34 Premier League goals conceded this season have come in the opening 15 minutes of games, both a league-high total and percentage (26%). However, the Villans have also scored a league- high share 31% of their Premier League goals in this timeframe this season (8/26).
● Aston Villa boss Unai Emery took charge of 51 Premier League games for Arsenal between August 2018 and November 2019 (W25 D13 L13). This will be the Gunners’ 10th Premier League match against one of their former managers – the previous nine were all against George Graham between 1996 and 2000 (W4 D4 L1), with their only defeat coming at Spurs in November 1999 (1-2).
● Aston Villa striker Ollie Watkins has scored in three successive league games for the first time since August 2018, with Brentford in the Championship, and will be looking to net in four consecutive league appearances for the first time in the top four tiers of English football.
● Arsenal midfielder Jorginho scored his only away brace in the Premier League to date against Aston Villa, netting two penalties in Chelsea’s 3-1 win at Villa Park in December last season.
● Arsenal goalkeeper Aaron Ramsdale has kept more away clean sheets than any other goalkeeper in the Premier League this season (7). Indeed, the last keeper to keep more shutouts on the road for the Gunners in a single league campaign was Jens Lehmann in 2003-04 (8), the last time Arsenal won the title.
BRENTFORD V CRYSTAL PALACE
3pm We have a very busy afternoon with six fixtures kicking off at 3pm. We usually don’t have this much these days with more TV games, but because of the Champions League and the League Cup not far away too, it’s a very busy Saturday afternoon. We start the action with Brentford hosting Crystal Palace, and we have two sides heading in different directions here. Brentford are unbeaten in their last ten Premier League games which goes back to before the break for the World Cup. Included in that run is two draws against Spurs and Arsenal, and wins against Manchester City and Liverpool – you can’t knock that form! Crystal Palace meanwhile haven’t won a Premier League game in their last six, but they have picked up draws against Newcastle and Manchester United – both times they were outplayed too. Indeed, Palace have only managed one win since the World Cup and that came against Bournemouth who have been dropping down the table like a stone. I wouldn’t say that Palace are involved in the relegation battle yet, but if they keep going the way they are then they will surely come under pressure at some point.
Brentford are having a great season sitting in eighth, and although they are very likely to come up short they won’t rule themselves out of the race for European spots. Manchester United or Newcastle will win the League Cup, so we should see an extra European spot in the Premier League with them two in the Top Four. Looking at the home form table, Brentford have been even better at home and while the Palace away form isn’t a negative, it’s a big positive for Brentford to be at home. While I was expecting to see Brentford trading odds on, I was surprised to see them trading as big as 1.93. They have been top class this season, playing at a different level to Crystal Palace and the xG figures are night-and-day when you look at the sides. Brentford are creating an average xG of 1.8 this season while Palace are conceding an xG of 1.7. I feel there’s only one winner here, and the 1.93 is worth a Max Bet on Brentford.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Brentford to beat Crystal Palace at 1.93 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BreCry
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● All three Premier League meetings between Brentford and Crystal Palace have been drawn. Only three fixtures in the competition have ever seen the first four meetings end level – Arsenal vs QPR, Bournemouth vs Watford and Southampton vs Stoke.
● Crystal Palace are winless in their last three away league games against Brentford (D1 L2) since a 3-0 win on Christmas Day 1957 in the Third Division South.
● Brentford remain unbeaten in their last 10 Premier League games (W5 D5), with only Newcastle (17) currently enjoying a longer run without defeat in the competition. However, those two sides have drawn the most games this term (Newcastle 11, Brentford 10).
● Crystal Palace are winless in their last six Premier League games (D3 L3), losing three of their last four on the road (W1), with each of those defeats coming by a single goal margin (vs Nottingham Forest, Chelsea and Man Utd).
● Brentford have won their last three home Premier League games, without conceding in the last two. They last won four successive home matches in the top-flight between September and October 1937 (4).
● Crystal Palace have won just one of their seven Premier League London derbies this season (D1 L5), losing each of the last three without scoring. Their only such victory this season did come away from home however, beating West Ham 2-1 in November.
● 17% of Brentford’s attempted passes this season have been long, the highest share in the division, while the only forward to contest more aerial duels than Bees striker Ivan Toney (144) this term is Fulham’s Aleksandar Mitrovic (170).
● Only the top two sides Arsenal and Manchester City (10 and 11 respectively, before their midweek meeting) have scored in both halves in more different Premier League games this season than Brentford (9). The Bees have netted in the first and second half in each of their last four home league games.
● No side has won more points from losing positions in the Premier League this season than Crystal Palace (14). Only in 2014-15 (21) and 2017-18 (15) have the Eagles ever recovered more such points in a single Premier League campaign.
● Ivan Toney has been directly involved in seven goals in his last seven Premier League games (6 goals, 1 assist), with these accounting for 58% of Brentford’s total goals in these matches (7/12).
BRIGHTON V FULHAM
3pm There’s a lot of talking points this afternoon, and this fixture is in danger is getting lost in my opinion! Even though they are both sitting in the top seven in the Premier League, unless anything dramatic happens you can definitely see this fixture only getting a few minutes on Match Of The Day. Brighton and Fulham actually have the same amount of points as each other, but Brighton have two games in hand. Unfortunately Brighton let us down last weekend away to Crystal Palace, they had to settle for a 1-1 draw but they absolutely battered Palace and should have won the game. They finished the game with an xG of 2.74 and only conceded 0.81. You can’t really knock Brighton looking at their stats this season – they are creating an average xG of 1.9 per game and conceding 1.3. They have been excellent, and fully deserve to be in the mix for the European spots. One wonders if Graham Potter is asking himself whether or not he made the right choice leaving given the season Chelsea are having. Fulham might be sitting beside them in the table, but their performances haven’t been at the same level.
Fulham have been massively over-performing at the back this season. Their average xG conceded is a very high 1.9, but their actual average is only 1.3. Eventually, sides will start taking their chances against them. You still have to give them massive credit because they were one of the favourites to go down at the start of the season, and now they would say they are in the mix for a European spot! Looking at their xG figures, I would expect them to drop down the table as the season goes on. I’m not going to go too mad with the stakes here because I fully respect the fact that Fulham have been grinding out a lot of results, and they are impressive going forward too, but Brighton look cracking value at 1.71. Their performances have been at a much higher level, and when you have a side creating so much against a side leaking chance, I can only see one outcome.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Brighton to beat Fulham at 1.71 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BriFul
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Brighton have faced Fulham more often without ever winning than they have any other opponent in the Premier League (5 – D3 L2).
● Following their 2-1 win at Craven Cottage in August, Fulham are looking to complete their first league double over Brighton since the 1992-93 third tier campaign.
● Brighton are unbeaten in their last nine Premier League home games against promoted sides (W4 D5), keeping a clean sheet in each of their last seven. Their last such defeat was in December 2019 against Sheffield United (0-1).
● Brighton are unbeaten in their five Premier League games so far in 2023, winning three and drawing two. They last had a longer run without a league defeat at the start of a calendar year in 2012 (first 12).
● Brighton have won their last two Premier League home games, beating Liverpool 3-0 and Bournemouth 1-0. They last won three in a row at home in November 2019, while they last won three in a row at home without conceding in September 2015 in the Championship.
● Fulham have won 10 Premier League games this season, with only Arsenal, Man City, Man Utd and Tottenham winning more. It’s their most wins in a top-flight campaign since 2012-13 (11), and double the amount they won in their last Premier League season in 2020-21 (5).
● Including penalties, no side has scored more goals from set piece situations in the Premier League this season than Fulham (15), while Brighton have conceded a league-high share 46.4% of their goals from set- pieces (13/28).
● Brighton are averaging 14.1 shots per game in the Premier League this season, and have a shot conversion rate of 13.2%, both their highest averages in any of their six Premier League campaigns. They’ve also netted 39 goals so far this term, only netting more in 2020-21 (40) and 2021-22 (42).
● Brighton’s Solly March has scored five goals in his last seven Premier League games, more than he had in his first 156 appearances in the competition (4). He’s netting once every 263 minutes on average under Roberto De Zerbi, compared to once every 2343 minutes under Chris Hughton/Graham Potter.
● Against no side has Fulham’s Aleksandar Mitrovic scored more Premier League goals than he has against Brighton, netting four times in five appearances against the Seagulls.
CHELSEA V SOUTHAMPTON
3pm An interesting betting heat here as Chelsea host Southampton. The pressure grew on Graham Potter this week with a loss in the Champions League – it was “only” 1-0 away to Dortmund, so the tie isn’t lost by any means but if Chelsea crash out of the Champions League at the Last 16 stage along with sitting mid-table in the Premier League then that is obviously a terrible season. Plus we all know how trigger happy the Chelsea owners are! The performance was good, and we know Potter is a big fan of xG so he won’t be unhappy – football is a results business though, and they simply have to start winning games. They have finished with a higher xG figure now against Fulham, Liverpool, Fulham and Dortmund and failed to win – realistically things could be very different if they won those four games, but here we are. The good news for Chelsea fans is that when you’re on a run like this, Southampton at home is an ideal fixture. They will be fully expected to win this fixture, and I suppose that brings its own pressure when you’re going through a difficult run.
Chelsea are trading 1.42 at the time of writing, and I feel given the situation that is a price to avoid this weekend. You certainly wouldn’t include them in any Acca this weekend! They are creating some decent chances now, but they haven’t found the winning groove yet. Southampton have had a big week sacking their manager – they basically had no choice after the interview he gave after the Wolves game. He made out going to ten men was an advantage for Wolves – he will go into the hall of fame for worst Premier League managers given his record! Chelsea have had Under 2.5 goals in their last five fixtures in all competitions, and given how limited Southampton have been up front I feel we’ll see Unders win again here. Under 2.5 goals is 2.02, and considering Chelsea have been struggling to score recently I expect them to grind out a 1-0 or 2-0 win; very similar to the Crystal Palace game.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.02 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CheSou
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Chelsea lost the reverse fixture 2-1 against Southampton in August – they’ve not lost consecutive league matches against Saints since December 1993.
● Southampton are looking to complete their first league double over Chelsea since the 1987-88 campaign – their 1-0 win at Stamford Bridge that season saw a 17-year-old Alan Shearer make his senior English league debut.
● Chelsea have drawn their last three Premier League matches, last having a longer run of consecutive draws in their final five matches in the 2006-07 campaign.
● Southampton have kept just one clean sheet in their last 28 Premier League matches, a 1-0 away win at Bournemouth in October. Their last clean sheet against a side that wasn’t newly promoted to the division that season was in April 2022 at home to Arsenal, a 1-0 win.
● Chelsea’s seven Premier League games in 2023 have seen just nine goals scored (4 for, 5 against), with only games involving Newcastle (5) and Fulham (8) seeing fewer. They haven’t scored more than once in any of their last seven league games, last going longer without scoring at least twice during a nine-game run in November and December 2010.
● Since the Premier League returned after the World Cup in December, Southampton have lost the most matches in the division (6) and only Bournemouth (2) have picked up fewer points (3). They’ve lost nine of their last 10 league games (W1), their joint most defeats over a 10-game run in their entire league history, also losing nine out of 10 between May and September 1993.
● Chelsea’s Mason Mount has been involved in five goals in his five Premier League starts against Southampton (4 goals, 1 assist) – only against Norwich (7) has he been involved in more.
● Raheem Sterling has been involved in 12 goals in 19 Premier League games against Southampton (8 goals, 4 assists), netting Chelsea’s goal in their 2-1 loss earlier this season. Only against West Ham (14) has he been involved in more in the top-flight.
● Chelsea’s Graham Potter has drawn 37% of his Premier League games as a manager (50/136), the second- highest ratio of any manager with 100+ games in the competition, behind Alex McLeish (38%). He’s also drawn more than half of his games against sides starting that day in the relegation zone (13/24, 54%), winning just six times against sides in the bottom three (L5).
● Southampton have given 5,060 minutes to players under the age of 21 in the Premier League this season, more than any other team, with eight different players featuring (Lavia, Bazunu, Mara, Bella-Kotchap, Edozie, Larios, Alcaraz, Sulemana). Indeed, at this stage of a Premier League season (22 games), only Man Utd in 1995-96 (6,658) and Man City in 2007-08 (5,131) have awarded more such minutes.
EVERTON V LEEDS
3pm What a huge fixture we have next as Everton host Leeds. This is a real relegation six pointer now, and the loser is going to be under immense pressure. Prior to the World Cup, especially after beating Liverpool at Anfield, Leeds fans would have felt they weren’t in the relegation battle they have yet to win a Premier League game since returning to action and they have dropped down the table. They start the weekend sitting just outside the relegation zone in 17th, only one point ahead of Everton in 18th who have the same amount of points as Bournemouth and then we have Southampton who have sacked their manager. Leeds haven’t been playing bad football – indeed they have been unlucky to lose three times. They finished the game with a higher xG figure while losing to Aston Villa, Nottingham Forest and Manchester United. Not taking their chances has always been a problem at Leeds, and it continues to be – of course, they have also got lucky at times – United completely outplayed them at Old Trafford but had to settle for a draw, and the same applies to Newcastle in a 0-0 there. While Leeds are hanging around the relegation battle, you’d have to expect them to come out of it – they are creating so many chances they are bound to win games.
The same doesn’t apply for Everton, who recorded a massive win in their last home game against Arsenal, but then got outplayed in the Merseyside Derby on Monday night. They are conceding an average xG of 1.8 per game, and their actual figure is only 1.4 so things could be even worse! We did see a bounce when Sean Dyche took over against Arsenal, but the reality is Everton have a very limited squad. Their defence is Championship level to be honest, but they will be delighted to have home advantage in this game. Interestingly, both sides have poor home and away form here – Everton sit in the bottom three on the home form table, and Leeds have only managed six points away from home to sit in the bottom three on the away form table! It’s no surprise that we have an open market, but I would have the sides closer together. Everton look a little short at 2.58, and Leeds a little big at 3.1. I’m happy to have the draw on our side here, so from a value point of view I’m happy with the Everton lay at the odds.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Everton to beat Leeds at 2.58 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EveLee
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Everton have lost just one of their last 10 Premier League games against Leeds (W5 D4), going down 1-0 at home in November 2020.
● Leeds have won just one of their last 15 away league games against Everton (D7 L7), a 1-0 victory in November 2020.
● Leeds have failed to win any of their last three Premier League games against sides in the relegation zone, drawing two and losing one. The Whites had only failed to win three of their previous 14 such games following their return to the division in 2020 (W11 D2 L1).
● One of Leeds United’s four league wins this season came at Anfield against Liverpool in October. The Whites haven’t won away from home against both Liverpool and Everton in a league season since the 1932-33 campaign.
● Since Leeds beat Chelsea in August, they have won fewer Premier League games than any other team (P19 W2 D6 L11) and only Southampton have won fewer points (11) than the Whites (12). Should they fail to win this game, it would be their fewest league wins across a 20-game span (2) since a run of two wins in 20 games between February and August 1947.
● Following their 1-0 win against Arsenal in Sean Dyche’s first game in charge, Everton are looking to win consecutive Premier League home games for the first time since March/April last season. Both of those victories back then were by a 1-0 scoreline.
● Everton are the lowest scorers in the Premier League this season with 16 goals, though these have come from 10 different goalscorers (excl. own goals). Only three players have scored more than once for the Toffees this term, with one of those (Anthony Gordon, 3) no longer playing for the club (Demarai Gray 3, Dwight McNeil 2).
● Leeds have only won four of their 22 Premier League games this season (D7 L11), their joint-fewest at this stage of a league season in their history, winning four of their opening 22 games in 2003-04 in the last season they were relegated from the top-flight.
● Everton manager Sean Dyche has never beaten Leeds United in the Premier League in four previous meetings, all while as Burnley manager (D1 L3). He has beaten all 30 other teams he’s faced in the top- flight apart from the Whites, and could become the sixth manager to face 30+ teams in the Premier League and beat them all, along with Arsène Wenger (46), Alex Ferguson (44), José Mourinho (38), Brendan Rodgers (36) and Gordon Strachan (32).
● Leeds full-back Junior Firpo has been booked 13 times in his 30 Premier League appearances and is averaging a card every 155 minutes, the worst ratio of any player to play at least 2,000 minutes in the competition’s history.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V MANCHESTER CITY
3pm We have the shortest price of the weekend next as Nottingham Forest host Manchester City. It’s been an excellent week City, they have closed a five point gap to take the lead on goal difference at the top of the Premier League. Obviously beating Arsenal away from home was a big part of that, but it was pretty much Arsenal fluffing their lines as well. City will be fully expected to win here, and they are trading as short as 1.35 at the time of writing. Nottingham Forest will be absolutely delighted to be starting the weekend sitting in 14th place, they have been excellent since the World Cup, but there is a big gulf in class between the sides here. I can’t see City fluffing their lines here after beating Arsenal midweek, and I can’t see Guardiola letting the side relax either. It will be interesting to see how Nottingham Forest set up here, whether they opt to defend or attack. Either way I can see City having a ball for most of the game here, but whatever Nottingham Forest do here it’s hard to see past a Manchester City win. With them trading as short as 1.35, we’ll have to look around the side markets for some value here.
Nottingham Forest have been conceding a lot of chances this season, and if City can score an early goal you might see a cricket score. Forest’s average xG conceded is as high as 1.8 per game this season, and when you compare that to City’s average xG created at 2.2 then we could see fireworks here! From that point of view, I was surprised to see Over 2.5 goals trading as high as 1.68 when I clicked into the market. City enjoy playing an open game, and I could easily see them leaving gaps at the back too if they go 2-0 up. Both Teams To Score is trading 2.1, which isn’t too high so obviously the market gives Forest a decent chance of scoring here, and I feel Over 2.5 goals is a very nice option. I just don’t see Guardiola easing up in the Premier League even with the Champions League games coming up.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.68 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NotMci
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● This is the first time Nottingham Forest are hosting Man City in a league match since October 2001 (1-1 in second tier), and the first time in a Premier League match since September 1995 (3-0 win).
● Man City won the reverse fixture against Nottingham Forest 6-0, last completing a top-flight double over them back in 1990-91.
● Since losing three Premier League games in a row at the City Ground in August and September, Nottingham Forest are unbeaten in seven on home soil (W4 D3), their best home unbeaten run in the top- flight since a 20-game stretch between February 1995 and January 1996.
● Manchester City have won their last nine Premier League games against newly promoted sides since a 2-1 home defeat to Leeds United in April 2021. Away from home, they have won their last five in a row and not lost since September 2019 against Norwich.
● Nottingham Forest have lost their last seven Premier League games against the reigning champions by an aggregate score of 29-3, including a 6-0 defeat to Man City earlier this season. Their last win against the reigning champions was in December 1994 away at Man Utd (2-1).
● Nottingham Forest faced 87 shots in their first six home Premier League matches this season, an average of 14.5 per game across those games, with 31 of those on target (5.2 per game). In their last five home games, they have only faced 37 shots, an average of 7.4 per game, with just nine of those on target (1.8 per game).
● This is Man City’s first away Premier League game kicking off at 3pm on a Saturday of the season. They have won their last 14 away league games kicking off that time, last losing on the road in a Saturday 3pm kick off in September 2013 at Aston Villa.
● Brennan Johnson has scored in each of his last two home Premier League appearances for Nottingham Forest and is looking to become only the fourth Forest player to score in three appearances in a row at the City Ground, after Stan Collymore (6 in a row, 1995), Jason Lee (4 in a row, 1995) and Dougie Freedman (two runs of 3 in a row, 1998 and 1999).
● Erling Haaland scored a hat trick in Man City’s 6-0 win over Nottingham Forest in August. The only player to have scored a hat-trick in both fixtures against a side in a season in Premier League history is Emmanuel Adebayor for Arsenal vs Derby in 2007-08, while the City Ground has only ever seen one hat-trick scored in 110 Premier League games – by Ole Gunnar Solskjaer for Man Utd in February 1999.
● Man City’s Kevin De Bruyne has been directly involved in 25 goals in 34 Premier League appearances against newly promoted teams (8 goals, 17 assists). He didn’t score or assist in his 21-minute substitute appearance against Nottingham Forest in August, with the Tricky Trees one of only two sides he’s faced without scoring or assisting in the Premier League, along with Huddersfield Town (three games).
WOLVES V BOURNEMOUTH
3pm We finish the 3pm games with Wolves hosting Bournemouth. This is another massive game at the bottom of the table, and by the end of today we should have a better idea who is going down this season! Bournemouth haven’t been in the bottom three for long, but they have been odds on to go down for ages. This is because their performance level was always poor, they just got lucky with results to have them further up the table. Since returning after the World Cup they have been dropping down the table like a stone, and I’m sure Wolves will be looking at this fixture as a great chance to collect another three points. Last weekend ended up being very good for Wolves, despite things looking quite bleak! They were a man down and 1-0 down away to Southampton last weekend, but managed to turn it around to win 2-1. They left them sitting in 15th, five points away from Everton in the bottom three and also left Southampton without a manager. The win over Liverpool would have been viewed as a complete bonus, but Wolves actually put in their best performance of the season – if they can repeat that they will blow Bournemouth away.
You can fully understand Wolves coming into this game trading odds on, and they will be a popular bet at 1.71 today. They are definitely one for any Acca this weekend in my opinion! Bournemouth have been very poor, and there’s no signs of things getting better either. They did manage a draw against Newcastle last weekend, but still conceded a relatively high xG figure. Their average xG conceded is 1.8 per game this season which is what we usually see from sides in the relegation battle. Bournemouth major problem is they are only creating an average xG of 0.9. They aren’t scoring, and are conceding goals for fun. It’s no wonder they were always favourites to go down. It might not be the best game of football to watch, but I can’t see past a Wolves win here. Bournemouth will give them chances, and the home side can grind out a win.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Wolves to beat Bournemouth at 1.71 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WolBou
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Wolves have never lost in five previous Premier League meetings with Bournemouth (W3 D2), keeping three clean sheets and conceding just twice.
● Bournemouth have kept just two clean sheets in their 11 league games against Wolves (W4 D3 L4), with one of those coming in the reverse fixture this season (0-0).
● Wolves are unbeaten in their last seven Premier League games against promoted sides (W3 D4) since a 2- 0 home loss to Brentford in September last season. Their three such games this season have produced just one goal (goalless draws with Fulham and Bournemouth, 1-0 win vs Nottingham Forest).
● Wolves have won three of their last four Premier League games (L1), as many as they had in their previous 25 (D7 L15). They’re looking to secure three consecutive top-flight victories for the first time since January 2022.
● Wolves have beaten West Ham 1-0 and Liverpool 3-0 in their last two Premier League home games. They’ve not won three in a row at Molineux without conceding in the top-flight since a run of five between October and December 1969.
● Since beating Everton 3-0 in November, Bournemouth are winless in seven Premier League matches (D2 L5), scoring just two goals in this run. They’ve lost their last six away from home in the league, failing to score in each of the last four.
● Wolves have scored just seven goals in the second half of Premier League games this season, fewer than any other side. Five of these seven strikes have come in their four victories so far under Julen Lopetegui.
● Wolves have benefitted from an own goal in their last two Premier League games, with Liverpool’s Joel Matip and Southampton’s Jan Bednarek putting past their own keepers. The only team to benefit from an own goal in three consecutive Premier League matches are Everton in April 2014.
● Wolves’ Diego Costa could make his 100th Premier League appearance in this match. He scored 52 goals in 89 appearances for Chelsea, compared to none in 10 with Wolves, while no player has had more shots on target without scoring than the Spaniard this season (8).
● Bournemouth concede a goal on average every 80 minutes with Neto in goal in the Premier League this season (13 goals conceded, 1035 minutes), compared to once every 30 minutes with Mark Travers between the posts (31 goals conceded, 945 minutes).
NEWCASTLE V LIVERPOOL
5.30pm We finish Saturday with an intriguing affair! Newcastle host Liverpool, and I’m sure if you asked most football fans who would be sitting in the Top Four and ninth at the start of the season they would have got it wrong! It’s a sign of the times that we see Newcastle trading as favourites – something most football fans wouldn’t have believed at the start of the season. The betting markets are usually the fastest to react to change, and it just reflects how the sides have played this season. Liverpool have been especially poor away from home – they have only managed eight points from their ten games, which actually puts them in the bottom six of the away form table. They only have three more points away from home than Bournemouth which is quite the stat for a side like Liverpool! As we all know, they have looked clueless at the back this season and they have been put under the most pressure away from home. They are conceding chances for fun, and their average xG conceded this season in the Premier League is 1.7 which is a figure we usually see from sides in the relegation battle! The thing about Liverpool though is they are always entertaining, and they are still excellent going forward – their average xG created is very high at 2.2. You can see why they are still be talked about as getting into the Top Four, but if that was to happen you have to feel that they have to win this game.
Newcastle have been excellent this season, and they fully deserve to be sitting in the Top Four. Their price reflects how good they have been this season, and they deserve to be favourites here. They are creating an average xG of 1.9 and only conceding 1.1 – impressive, and stats you’d expect from a Top Four side. There have been signs of them slowing down in recent weeks however – it’s been years since they were towards the top of the table, and maybe they are feeling the pressure. They’ve had five draws from their last six Premier League games, but you can’t be too harsh on them because their performances have been quite strong. They basically need to start taking their chances – for example they had 0-0 draws against Crystal Palace and Leeds but finished those games with xG figures of 1.78 and 2.85. With Liverpool so poor at the back and so good going forward, this game screams Over 2.5 goals to me – it’s a very appealing bet at 1.86! We’ve landed some nice bets on Overs in Liverpool games this season, and I feel this is worth a very confident bet.
The Striker Says:
Four points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.86 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NewLiv
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Newcastle are winless in their last 12 Premier League meetings with Liverpool (D4 L8) since a 2-0 home win in December 2015 under Steve McClaren.
● Liverpool are unbeaten in five away league games against Newcastle (W3 D2) – they’ve never gone six without defeat at St James’ Park in their league history.
● Liverpool have come from behind to beat Newcastle 10 times in the Premier League, including a 2-1 win in the reverse fixture this season. No side has done so more often against a single opponent in Premier League history (Man Utd also 10 vs both Newcastle and Southampton).
● This is the first time Newcastle are facing Liverpool in the Premier League while at least five places above the Reds in the table since September 2006, when 15th place Liverpool beat Newcastle in 9th 2-0 at Anfield.
● Since losing 2-1 to Liverpool in August, Newcastle are unbeaten in their last 17 Premier League games, their joint-longest run without defeat in their league history (also 17 in 2009-10 in the Championship). They’ve also not conceded more than once in any of these 17 games – only once have they had a longer run without conceding at least twice in their league history (18 between November-March in 2003-04).
● Liverpool have lost their last three Premier League away games. They last lost four in a row on the road in April 2012, the fourth game of which was a 2-0 loss at Newcastle United.
● Liverpool’s last three away league games have seen them lose 3-1 to Brentford, 3-0 to Brighton and 3-0 to Wolves. The Reds’ haven’t conceded 3+ goals in four consecutive away league games since September 1954.
● Alexander Isak scored on his Newcastle debut in the reverse fixture against Liverpool. The last Magpies player to net home and away league goals against the Reds in the same season was Alan Shearer in 1999- 00.
● Miguel Almirón has scored 10 goals in 22 Premier League appearances for Newcastle this season, which is one more than he managed in his first four campaigns combined (9 goals in 110 games). However, he’s not scored in any of his last four home league games, since netting against Aston Villa in October.
● Mohamed Salah – who has scored six goals in his last 10 Premier League games against Newcastle – has scored 126 Premier League goals for Liverpool, and is just two goals away from equalling Robbie Fowler (128) in becoming the Reds’ highest scorer in the competition.
