SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Saturday’s games starting with BOURNEMOUTH v LIVERPOOL – all games including FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BOURNEMOUTH V LIVERPOOL
12.30pm We have another cracking Saturday in the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! Every weekend seems to have massive games and full of drama at the moment – Arsenal had taken all the headlines last Saturday only to be triumphed by Liverpool beating Manchester United 7-0 on Sunday! We kick off the weekend with Liverpool as they travel to take on Bournemouth. It would be a classic example of Liverpool this season to beat Manchester United 7-0, and then lose to Bournemouth! There’s no getting away from the fact that Liverpool have been woeful at the back this season, but they come into this game with five clean sheets in a row in the Premier League. In between that run was of course the embarrassing 5-2 defeat an Anfield against Real Madrid, and you have to say that they have had an relatively easy fixture list playing Everton, Crystal Palace and Wolves. The jury was still out when they beat Newcastle 2-0 because they conceded so many chances in the second half when Newcastle were down to ten men. I think the reality is Liverpool still have massive issues, and a headline win at their biggest rival just papers over the cracks for the time being.
With Bournemouth sitting bottom of the table, Liverpool come into the game trading heavy odds on favourites. Bournemouth fans would have been getting excited 2-0 up against Arsenal at the weekend, and in fairness a draw would have been a good result for them too away from home. Southampton winning last weekend also was a bitter blow for Bournemouth, but they will feel that they can get a result here given Liverpool have conceded so many chances this season. From a Bournemouth point of view, they just have to attack and see what happens. Liverpool are conceding an average xG of 1.6 this season which is an exceptionally high figure for a club like them. I’m happy to stay away from the match odds market here because Liverpool have been conceding too many goals to back them at 1.46 here. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.65 and given Bournemouth have had plenty of goals in their games too this season, we should have an entertaining game here. I feel this game just screams goals on paper, and at 1.65 it’s worth a Max Bet.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.65 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BouLiv
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Bournemouth have won just one of their 11 Premier League meetings with Liverpool (D1 L9), losing the last seven in a row by an aggregate score of 28-1.
● Liverpool won the reverse fixture against Bournemouth 9-0 at Anfield in August – the most goals they’ve ever scored against an opponent in a single top-flight season is 11, doing so on five occasions and most recently against Ipswich Town in 2001-02.
● Liverpool have drawn 2-2 at Fulham and lost 1-0 at Nottingham Forest so far this season – only in 2010-11 (L3) and 2003-04 (D2 L1) have they failed to win away against all three promoted clubs in a single Premier League campaign.
● Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in each of their last five Premier League games, as many as they had in their previous 24 combined. They last had a longer run of games without conceding between December 2019 and January 2020 (7).
● Bournemouth have lost three Premier League games this season in which they have had a two-goal lead (v Spurs in October, Leeds in November, Arsenal this month), the most by a side in a single campaign in the competition. Overall, they have lost 17 points from winning positions in 2022-23, behind only Leicester (19) in the Premier League this term.
● After losing three of their first four Premier League games in 2023 (D1), Liverpool have now won four of their last five (D1). They scored as many goals in their 7-0 win against Man Utd last time out as they had in their previous eight league games combined.
● Since (and including) Bournemouth’s first Premier League defeat under Gary O’Neil back in October, the Cherries have lost more Premier League games than any other side (11). Indeed, they won more points in their first six league games under O’Neil (10 – W2 D4) than they have in their subsequent 15 (8 – W2 D2 L11).
● Liverpool’s Roberto Firmino has been directly involved in 12 Premier League goals against Bournemouth (5 goals, 7 assists), only registering more goal involvements in the competition against Arsenal (13). Indeed, the Brazilian was involved in five of the Reds’ goals in their 9-0 win in the reverse fixture (2 goals, 3 assists).
● Philip Billing is Bournemouth’s highest Premier League goalscorer this season with five goals – he’d netted just three goals across his three previous campaigns in the competition combined. His opener against Arsenal last time out was the second fastest goal scored from the start of a game in Premier League history (9.11 seconds).
● Mohamed Salah has been involved in 10 goals in his last eight games in all competitions (5 goals, 5 assists). The Liverpool forward has both scored and assisted in five different matches in all competitions this term, with no Premier League player doing so more often.
EVERTON V BRENTFORD
3pm We have four games kicking off at 3pm, and we start with Everton hosting Brentford. This is another game that will have a big impact on the relegation battle with Everton sitting in the bottom three. They were involved in a huge relegation battle last weekend against Nottingham Forest, having to settle for a 2-2 draw even though they played the better football. They finished with an xG figure of over double what they conceded, and you’d have to be impressed with how they have played since Sean Dyche took over. They have won two of their six games, and their xG figures have been 1.91, 0.50, 1.60, 1.88, 1.77 and 2.19. The 0.5 figure was away to Liverpool, where they just got outplayed. Their away form has really improved since Dyche took over too – their xG figure was 1.77 away to Arsenal and then 2.19 away to Nottingham Forest. Brentford are having a great season, and they were involved in another entertaining game last weekend with a 3-2 win over Fulham. Just looking at their xG figures you can see how entertaining they have been to watch this season – their average xG created is 1.9 and their average conceded is 1.5. Dyche hasn’t had Everton sitting back since he took over, so this should be a very good game.
We have an exceptionally open market – there’s only two ticks between the sides with Everton 2.84 and Brentford are 2.86! We could easily flip-flop favourites here a few times before kick off, which doesn’t happen often in the Premier League! Supporting Everton in the markets hasn’t been a good idea over the last two years, but looking at their xG figures they are playing their best football for a long time in my opinion. It has been literally ages since they have put together decent performances like this – they haven’t got the results, but their performance level is pretty high. I was surprised to see Over 2.5 goals trading as high as 2.37 when I clicked into the market – Everton will play an open game here and Brentford always attack so I feel we’ll see plenty of chances, and we should see three or more goals.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.37 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EveBre
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Everton lost this exact fixture 3-2 last season – they’ve never lost back-to-back home league games against Brentford before.
● Brentford are unbeaten in their three Premier League games against Everton (W2 D1), only picking up more points in the competition against West Ham (9) than against the Toffees (7).
● London clubs have lost their last three Premier League away games against Everton, since Chelsea won 1-0 on the opening weekend. Indeed, three of Everton’s four home wins this season have come against London sides (West Ham, Crystal Palace, Arsenal).
● All four of Everton’s home wins in the Premier League this season have seen them keep a clean sheet, with the Toffees losing seven of their eight games at Goodison Park when conceding at least once (D1).
● Brentford are unbeaten in their last five Premier League away games, winning two and drawing three. Only once have they had a longer run without defeat on the road in the top-flight, going nine games between January and April 1936 (W3 D6).
● Everton have conceded a league-high eight goals from fast breaks in the Premier League this season, while only Man Utd (7) have scored more such goals this term than Brentford (5).
● Since the resumption of the Premier League on Boxing Day following the World Cup break, six of Everton’s eight league goals have been scored from a set piece (3x corner, 2x penalty 1x free-kick). Just one of their 11 goals before the break had been from such a situation.
● Everton manager Sean Dyche has won three of his four league games against Brentford (all with Burnley), though the exception was a 2-0 loss in his last such meeting almost exactly a year ago (12th March 2022).
● Demarai Gray is Everton’s top scorer in the Premier League this season with four goals – no side has a lower scoring top scorer in the competition so far this term than the Toffees (level with Jarrod Bowen at West Ham).
● Only Ivan Toney (18) has been directly involved in more Premier League goals for Brentford this season than Mathias Jensen (8 – four goals and four assists). The Danish midfielder has scored three times in his last six appearances in the competition, after only netting once in his first 49.
LEEDS V BRIGHTON
3pm Once again, we have a game that will impact the relegation battle again! This time it’s Leeds taking on Brighton, and to be honest this is another game that screams goals on paper. Both sides like to play an open and attacking game, and we should have an entertaining affair. Leeds start the weekend sitting just outside the bottom three, but they have the same amount of points as Everton, and to be honest the race is so close no one is safe sitting in the bottom six at the moment. You’d have to fancy Leicester and West Ham to have the class to stay up, but they are still hanging around the bottom of the table! Leeds have collected most of their points at home this season, so they’ll be hoping to pick up something here. Away from home, Leeds have only managed six points from their 13 games this season so they are definitely a team to take on away from home. You can’t say the same about Brighton however, because they are sitting in the top five on the away form table. They were exceptionally impressive at home last weekend though hammering West Ham 4-0; in general they have been fantastic going forward all season.
Brighton’s average xG created this season is a very high 2.0, and to be honest with a figure like that they should be higher than eighth in the table. The xG table actually puts them up into third place, it’s probably a classic case of Brighton not their chances – remember when they were in the relegation battle but finished every game with a crazy xG figure! It would be nice to see them get a European spot because they deserve it, but let’s see. With Leeds conceding an average xG of 1.6 this season I feel this game is there for the taking, and while I couldn’t put anyone off backing Brighton at 2.02 as I said above this game screams goals. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.95 which is only seven ticks below Brighton who are trading 2.02, and I have to say I’m much happier with the overs bet. Another Over 2.5 goals bet so hopefully we have an entertaining day!
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.95 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeeBri
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Leeds have won just one of their last 12 league games against Brighton (D2 L9), a 2-0 home win in the Championship in March 2017. They’ve scored just four goals in this run, failing to score at all on nine occasions.
● Brighton are unbeaten in all five of their Premier League meetings with Leeds (W3 D2), keeping four clean sheets and conceding just one goal in these games.
● Leeds have won just one of their last 12 Premier League games (D4 L7), beating Southampton 1-0 in Javier Gracia’s first match in charge. The Whites’ last three games have all ended in 1-0 wins for the home side (beat Southampton, lost to Everton and Chelsea).
● Leeds are looking to win consecutive home league games for just the second time since the start of last season, with the other occasion being against Wolves and Chelsea in their first two at Elland Road this term.
● Brighton have scored 43 Premier League goals this season, their highest tally in a single campaign in the competition. Their goals scored has risen in each of their last five Premier League seasons, becoming the first team to see an increase in goals scored in five straight top-flight campaigns since Manchester United between 1989-90 and 1993-94.
● Brighton are unbeaten in their last five Premier League away games (W3 D2), the joint-longest current run in the division, along with Brentford (5). They’ve won five of their 11 away games this season (D3 L3), only winning more in a single Premier League campaign in 2021-22 (7).
● Brighton have had 61 more shots on target than they’ve faced in the Premier League this season (136 for, 75 faced) – only Manchester City (88) have a higher positive difference in the competition so far this term.
● Brighton have only failed to score in one of their 11 Premier League away games so far this season (0-2 vs Brentford in October). No team has failed to find the net in fewer games on the road so far this term (Arsenal also once).
● Following Leeds’ 1-0 win against Southampton, Javier Gracia is looking to become the first manager to win his first two top-flight home games in charge of the Whites since Jimmy Armfield in October 1974, who took over as full-time manager from Brian Clough.
● Brighton’s Kaoru Mitoma has scored six Premier League goals this season – it’s the joint-most netted in a single campaign by a Japanese player, level with Shinji Kagawa (2012-13) and Shinji Okazaki (2017-18).
LEICESTER V CHELSEA
3pm It’s been a fantastic week for Chelsea, and they have a great chance of putting three wins together as they take on Leicester. There was a lot of talk in the UK media last week that Graham Potter’s job depended on the two results against Leeds and Dortmund, if that was true then things couldn’t have gone better for him. That being said, if he’s already at the stage where he has to win certain games to stay in the job, that is a worry in itself. To be fair to Potter and Chelsea, they have been playing good football and they have been very unlucky at times. The first leg against Dortmund was a classic example because they finished that game with an xG of 2.34 despite losing 1-0. If they start taking their chances, then they can definitely put a few wins together. You’d have to feel that they have a great chance of winning here too – Leicester have been very poor at home this season, they’ve only managed 12 points here which is the second worst return in the Premier League this season – only Southampton have less points at home. Southampton managed a huge win over Leicester last weekend too, which drags Leicester back into the relegation battle for the time being. They can’t seem to get away from it for long!
Chelsea backers have had their fingers burnt this season in general, and definitely since the World Cup, but I feel this is a good time to back them. They finished with an xG of over 2.0 again midweek against Dortmund, and they have finished a lot of games with an xG of over 2.0 which they didn’t win either. In my opinion, they basically needed a confidence boosting win and then a good run will come. They simply have to start taking their chances. Although we can have a big debate about whether Graham Potter was an improvement on Thomas Tuchel, I feel looking at the xG figures he is doing a good job. He does have them creating chances and playing well. Obviously I’m not going to go mad with the stakes on Chelsea yet because confidence in them isn’t fully there, but you can clearly see the signs that they are playing well and to be honest Leicester have been so average this season they are there for the taking. The 2.0 is worth taking on Chelsea.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Chelsea to beat Leicester at 2.0 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeiChe
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Leicester have won just one of their last six home league games against Chelsea (D2 L3), winning 2-0 in January 2021. They lost this exact fixture 3-0 last season.
● Chelsea are looking to complete their first league double over Leicester since the 2016-17 campaign, following their 2-1 win against them at Stamford Bridge in August.
● With 24 goals scored and 25 goals conceded, Chelsea’s Premier League games have seen fewer goals than any other side this season (49). Meanwhile, only Man City’s (91), Arsenal’s (84) and Tottenham’s (82) games have seen more goals than Leicester’s (79 – F36 A43).
● Chelsea are without a win in their last 10 away games in all competitions (D3 L7), their longest winless streak on their travels since going 17 without victory from April 2000 to January 2001. The Blues have scored just four goals in this 10-match period, their fewest over a run of 10 away games since August-December 1993 (also 4).
● Leicester have lost 15 Premier League games this season, behind only Southampton (16) in 2022-23, and their most in a single campaign since 2018-19 (16). Foxes boss Brendan Rodgers has never suffered more league defeats in a season in his managerial career (also 15 with Swansea in 2011-12).
● Leicester have failed to have a shot on target in their last two Premier League games, since James Maddison’s 90th minute effort against Manchester United. Since game-by-game shot data is available (2003-04), no team has ever failed to land a shot on target in three consecutive Premier League games before.
● Leicester’s Brendan Rodgers has won just two of his 21 meetings with Chelsea as a manager in all competitions (D9 L10), with that 10% win ratio against the Blues his lowest against any side he has faced more than twice in his managerial career.
● Raheem Sterling scored his first Chelsea goals in the Blues’ 2-1 win over Leicester in August. He’s netted braces in his last two Premier League games against Leicester, having scored just once in his first 14 appearances against them.
● Harvey Barnes scored Leicester’s goal in their 2-1 defeat at Chelsea in August – the last player to score home and away league goals against the Blues in a single season for the Foxes was Muzzy Izzet in 2000-01.
● James Maddison has scored more goals (9), provided more assists (5) and created more chances (42) than any other Leicester player in the Premier League this season. He’s one of only two players to lead all three categories for a club this season, along with Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah.
TOTTENHAM V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
3pm We finish the 3pm games with Spurs hosting Nottingham Forest. Spurs come into the fixture under a cloud after crashing out of the European League midweek. They had home advantage in the second leg and were 1-0 down after the first leg, but couldn’t manage to find a goal to even force extra-time. AC Milan did a number of them, and Spurs had no answers finishing the game with an xG of just 0.51. AC Milan actually finished the game with an xG of over three times that, and Spurs went out with a whimper. Obviously we’ve had a big reaction to that, as you would expect online, and I always feel Conte doesn’t help the situation in times like this. He said he was discuss his future at the end of the season – that basically leaves everyone in limbo. You’re either committed or you’re not! It will probably depend on where Spurs finish in the Premier League now, and it’s absolutely vital they hold onto that fourth position. Losing to Wolves last weekend doesn’t help that, and now they are under pressure from Liverpool. As things stand heading into this weekend, Liverpool are only three points behind Spurs with a game in hand. Thankfully for Spurs because Liverpool have been so poor at the back this season, the London club have a better goal difference.
If Spurs want to hold onto that fourth position, and it’s the only thing they have left to play for this season, they have to win games like this. You’d imagine Harry Kane would leave too without Champions League football, but in the grand scheme of things he is wasting his talent at Spurs too because it’s unlikely he’ll ever win anything with the club. Nottingham Forest will be delighted with their season so far – they start the weekend four points away from the bottom three and they have three clubs between them and the relegation zone too. Most of their points have come at home though, away from home they’ve only managed six points all season which is the joint-lowest return in the Premier League. I’m going to stay away from the match odds market for that reason, as the 1.48 on Spurs seems fair value. Forest have been involved in some very entertaining games this season, and I believe they can score at some stage. Both Teams To Score is trading 2.12 and that’s worth a small investment.
The Striker Says:
One point win Both Teams To Score at 2.12 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TotNot
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Tottenham have won their last three league games against Nottingham Forest, and last won four in a row against them between August 1963 and December 1964.
● Nottingham Forest have won three of their last four away league games against Spurs, though this is their first such visit since a 2-0 loss in November 1998.
● Tottenham have won 28 of their last 31 Premier League home games against promoted sides (D2 L1), with their only defeat in that run coming against Wolves at Wembley in 2018-19.
● Nottingham Forest have lost eight of their last 10 Premier League games in London (W1 D1), with their only win in that run coming at Wimbledon in March 1999. Forest have lost all three of their visits to the capital this season by an aggregate score of 11-0.
● Tottenham have won each of their last three Premier League home games, all without conceding. Spurs last won four straight home league games while keeping a clean sheet each time in March 2018, when they played their home games at Wembley under Mauricio Pochettino.
● Tottenham are one of two sides yet to draw a Premier League game in 2023, winning five and losing five. So far this year, only Man City (7) and Arsenal (6) have won more Premier League games than Spurs, while only Everton (6) have lost more often than them.
● Having been unbeaten in their first five Premier League games of 2023 (W3 D2), Nottingham Forest are winless in their last four (D2 L2). The Tricky Trees have won just once away from home all season (D3 L8), and remain the lowest goalscorers on the road so far this term (3).
● Harry Kane has scored three goals in his three appearances for Spurs against Nottingham Forest in all competitions, including a brace at the City Ground in the reverse fixture this term. He’s two goals away from netting 20 Premier League goals in a season for the sixth time, something only Sergio Agüero (6) and Alan Shearer (7) have achieved previously.
● In three substitute appearances in the Premier League this season, Tottenham’s Son Heung-min has scored four goals from just five shots (80% conversion). In his 21 starts this term, he’s scored just one goal from 51 shots (2% conversion).
● Brennan Johnson has been directly involved in nine Premier League goals this season, more than any other Nottingham Forest player (7 goals, 2 assists). Seven of these involvements have come in his nine appearances in 2023 (5 goals, 2 assists), with only Erling Haaland and Marcus Rashford (8 each) being involved in more this calendar year.
CRYSTAL PALACE V MANCHESTER CITY
5.30pm We finish Saturday with Crystal Palace hosting Manchester City. It’s very hard to see past a City win here but it’s worth remembering Palace managed a 0-0 here last season – also in March – so I’d keep that in the back of your mind before considering whether to take the 1.4 on City. Palace have been very poor this season though, and to be honest they have been lucky not to be involved in the relegation battle. They start the weekend sitting five points away from the bottom three, but there are enough clubs between them and the bottom three that they seem safe. Their stats are very poor – their average xG created is only 1.0 and their average conceded is a high 1.7 – usually stats you see from sides in a relegation battle to be honest! The xG table actually puts them in the bottom three, and that’s a fair reflection of their form this season. City should hammer them on paper, but they have thrown in a few odd results this season – hence why they are five points behind Arsenal in the title race! City fans must have been getting excited last weekend when Bournemouth were leading 2-0, but Arsenal have landed multiple late crushing blows to City fans this season!
I really don’t rate Palace, so I feel this is a case of how many goals can City score rather than will they win. I wouldn’t put anyone off including City in their weekend Acca at 1.4, but I’m going to look around the side markets for a bigger price. I expect plenty of chances for City here, Palace have been conceding a lot of chances this season and City are obviously one of the best sides in Europe going forward. Any Other Away Win (Man City to score four or more and win) is an appealing price at 5.8, but City do have midweek action in the Champions League so they might ease up once they have a decent lead. I like the 2.08 on City to cover the 1.5 goal handicap. I was surprised to see this trading odds on – I suppose Palace have got a result off City in two of their last three meetings, but Palace have been so poor this season I expect a smooth win for City this time around.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Manchester City -1.5 goals to beat Crystal Palace at 2.08 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CryMci
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Crystal Palace are winless in their last seven Premier League home games against Manchester City (D2 L5), since a 2-1 win in April 2015. They’ve failed to score in five of these seven games, including each of the last three.
● Each of Man City’s last nine goals against Crystal Palace in the Premier League have come in the second half of games, with the Citizens failing to score in the opening 45 minutes in each of their last four against the Eagles.
● Crystal Palace are winless in nine Premier League games (D5 L4), the longest ongoing run among sides currently in the competition. Indeed, no side has fewer Premier League points in 2023 than the Eagles (5, level with Bournemouth).
● Though they’re unbeaten in their last three away league games, Man City have already dropped more points in away Premier League games this season (15) than they did in the whole of 2021-22 (11).
● Crystal Palace’s last four home league games have all been drawn. The Eagles last drew five straight home league matches in March 2000 in the second tier, while the last team to do so in the Premier League were Burnley in March 2021.
● Crystal Palace have failed to register a single shot on target in more different Premier League games than any other side this season (4). They’ve not managed one in their last two matches, with no Premier League side on record failing to do so in three consecutive games before (since 2003-04).
● No team has conceded fewer goals from set piece situations in the Premier League this season than Crystal Palace (5, including penalties), while the Eagles have netted a league-high share 43% of their goals from set pieces this term (9/21).
● Erling Haaland scored his first Premier League hat-trick in the reverse fixture against Crystal Palace, as Man City came from 2-0 down at half-time to win 4-2. Only Emmanuel Adebayor against Derby County in 2007-08 has ever scored two hat-tricks against an opponent in the same Premier League season.
● Man City’s Phil Foden is looking to score in three consecutive Premier League games, previously doing so in June/July 2020, and September/October this season. He’s scored nine times in the competition so far this term and could reach double figures for the very first time.
● Bernardo Silva has scored in his last two Premier League games for Man City – only once has he scored in more consecutive top-flight matches, doing so in four in a row with Monaco in April/May 2015.
