SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Saturday’s Premier League games including CHELSEA v EVERTON at 5.30pm. All match previews include FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ASTON VILLA V BOURNEMOUTH
3pm We have a smaller than usual Premier League fixture list this weekend on BETDAQ Betting Exchange due to the FA Cup Quarter-Finals taking place. We have no early kick off, and have five fixtures to enjoy. Four of them kick off at 3pm, and we start the day with Aston Villa hosting Bournemouth. The relegation race definitely got spiced up last weekend with Bournemouth’s shock win over Liverpool, especially off the back of the 7-0 win for Liverpool against Manchester United. There’s no getting away from the fact that Bournemouth were lucky – Liverpool finished the game with an xG of 2.30 – but you have to give them credit they grinded out a result. That’s the best they can do against a side like Liverpool. Bournemouth have actually been playing very good football recently, I would say that they are playing their best football of the season. They have managed three results from their last five games, and they very nearly pulled off a result away to Arsenal too. Their losses in those five games came against Manchester City and Arsenal, which is nothing to be ashamed about. Their last five xG figures have been 1.50, 0.96, 1.71, 1.74 and 1.20. Decent figures, and a level above what they have been creating all season – their average xG figure is 1.0.
Aston Villa come into this game in food form too – they are unbeaten in their last three, and they have lost to Manchester City and Arsenal recently too. Since then though they put in good performances against Everton, Crystal Palace and West Ham. They are trading odds on at the time of writing, currently 1.77 and I’m sure they’ll be a popular bet because Bournemouth haven’t been too good away from home this season. They have only managed eight points away from home from their 13 games, which isn’t the worst record in the Premier League but it’s poor nonetheless. Bournemouth did play well away to Arsenal though, and prior to that grinded out a win against Wolves. I do feel we’ll see a close game here, and from a value point of view I’m happy with a small lay at 1.77 on Villa. I just feel we’ll see a closer game than the odds suggest here – it seems a good time to be supporting Bournemouth given the way they are playing.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Aston Villa to beat Bournemouth at 1.77 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AstBou
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● After winning their first ever Premier League meeting with Bournemouth in August 2015, Aston Villa have lost each of their last four against the Cherries.
● Bournemouth have scored exactly twice in each of their last four Premier League meetings with Aston Villa, winning both games at Villa Park 2-1 in that run.
● All four of Aston Villa’s Premier League goals against Bournemouth have come in the second half of games, while six of Bournemouth’s eight strikes against the Villans have come before half time.
● Aston Villa have won just two of their last 10 Premier League games against promoted sides (D3 L5), and are winless in their three such games this season (D1 L2).
● Aston Villa have scored in all 13 of their Premier League games under Unai Emery, having failed to score in six of their 13 before his arrival this season. It’s the longest scoring streak by a club at the start of a manager’s tenure since Leicester scored in their first 17 under Claudio Ranieri in their 2015-16 title winning season.
● Following their 1-0 win against Liverpool last time out, Bournemouth are looking to win consecutive Premier League games for the first time since August 2022, and for the first time in a single season since February 2020. On both of those occasions, the second win in the run came against Aston Villa.
● Bournemouth have kept just one clean sheet in their last 23 Premier League away games, shipping 58 goals in the process. However, both of the Cherries’ wins on the road this season have come in the Midlands (3-2 vs Nottingham Forest, 1-0 vs Wolves).
● Bournemouth have opened the scoring in five of their last seven Premier League games, as many times as they had in their first 19 this season. However, they’ve only won four times when scoring first this term (D4 L2), with no side failing to win as many games as the Cherries when going 1-0 up.
● Ollie Watkins is Aston Villa’s top Premier League goalscorer this season with nine goals. He could become the first player to score 10+ in three consecutive top-flight campaigns for the Villans since Christian Benteke (2012-13 to 2014-15), and the first Englishman to do so since Gabriel Agbonlahor (2007-08 to 2009-10).
● Philip Billing is Bournemouth’s top Premier League goalscorer this season, netting twice as many goals in 25 appearances this term (6) as he had in 77 games across his three previous campaigns combined (3). Five of his six goals this season have been Bournemouth’s first of the match, giving the Cherries the lead in their last two fixtures against Arsenal and Liverpool.
BRENTFORD V LEICESTER
3pm Next we have an interesting market as Brentford host Leicester. We had midweek action in the Premier League this week, and Brentford were one of the sides in action as they were away to Southampton. They recorded a very smooth 2-0 win, and come into this fixture in great form. It’s fair to say that every game is important now for Leicester, the results in the relegation battle didn’t go their way at the weekend. Southampton, Leeds and West Ham managed to pick up draws, and then Bournemouth beat Liverpool too. Those results and the fact that Leicester have lost five in a row in all competitions, four in the Premier League, has definitely dragged them back into the relegation battle. Leicester have been very up-and-down this season, they sat in the bottom three for ages at the start of the season then won a few games before the World Cup, and now they are back on a downward momentum run at the moment. They need to pick up a result soon otherwise they’re heading back in the bottom three. To be fair to Leicester, they have had to play Manchester United, Arsenal and Chelsea in that run. The loss to Southampton was a massive blow though.
Leicester need to start picking up points. In fairness to them, they did finish the Southampton and Chelsea games with a higher xG figure than they conceded. That was progress, but they are still conceding an average xG of 1.7 this season. That’s a very high figure, and shows why they are towards the bottom of the table. I wouldn’t say they have been poor away from home – they actually have the same amount of points at home and away this season! Brentford are definitely more comfortable at home though, and the 2.04 on the home win is a very tempting bet. That being said, Leicester have had lots of action in their games this season and Brentford play a very open game – you only have to look at their average xG figures at both ends of the pitch to see that! Both Teams To Score looks cracking value here at 1.75 in what should be a very open end-to-end game.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Both Teams To Score at 1.75 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BreLei
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Brentford have won none of their three Premier League games against Leicester (D1 L2), though they did come from 2-0 down to draw in the reverse fixture on the opening weekend of the season.
● Leicester are unbeaten in their last seven league games against Brentford (W5 D2) since a 3-2 loss in the second tier in March 1953. They’ve won all three of their away games against the Bees in that run.
● Having lost their first three Premier League away games against London sides this season, and conceding 12 goals in the process, Leicester won their last visit to the capital 2-0 against West Ham. The Foxes haven’t won consecutive such matches since October/December 2020 against Arsenal and Spurs.
● Brentford have lost just one of their 13 Premier League home games this season (W7 D5) and are unbeaten in nine since losing 3-0 to Arsenal in September (W5 D4). Coming into this weekend’s games, only Manchester United (12) are on a longer current run without defeat at home.
● Leicester City have suffered 16 Premier League defeats this season, which is Brendan Rodgers’ most league defeats in a single campaign in his managerial career. The Foxes last lost more matches in a single season in 2016-17 (18).
● Leicester have lost their last four Premier League games, scoring just one goal in this run. This comes after consecutive victories in February which saw them score eight goals (4-2 vs Aston Villa, 4-1 vs Tottenham).
● Leicester have scored a league-high 11 Premier League goals from outside the box this season. These goals have accounted for 30% of their total (11/37), with the Foxes only netting a higher share from distance in a single campaign in 1994-95 (33% – 15/45).
● Only Ivan Toney (8) has scored more home goals for Brentford in the Premier League this season than Mathias Jensen (4), with the Dane netting three in his last four at the Gtech Community Stadium.
● Leicester’s James Maddison has scored in each of his last four Premier League away games against London sides – only one player has scored in five consecutive visits to the capital for a non-London based side, with Ruud van Nistelrooy doing so with Man Utd between September 2002 and September 2003.
● James Maddison has more goals (9) and more assists (5) than any other Leicester player in the Premier League this season but has gone three games without a goal involvement for the first time since April 2022.
SOUTHAMPTON V TOTTENHAM
3pm Southampton were another side who were in action midweek, they lost 2-0 to Brentford and were totally outplayed too. This is probably the most interesting game for the weekend in the Premier League! Southampton are obviously heavily in the relegation battle, and then you have Spurs fighting for a Top Four spot but they have been quite poor away from home. All their average performances have come away from home, so Southampton will fancy getting a result here. The market clearly doesn’t trust Spurs away from home – they are odds on but they are trading 1.88 at the time of writing. Usually you’d see a Top Four side shorter than that against a side in the relegation battle. Spurs have lost their last two away games, 1-0 to Wolves and 1-0 to Sheffield United in the FA Cup. Two sides that wouldn’t be too far away from Southampton level wise – prior to those two games they lost 4-1 to Leicester as well who are also involved in the relegation battle. It would take a brave punter to take the 1.88 on Spurs here in my opinion!
The big problem with taking on Spurs here, is you have to rely on Southampton who let’s face it, aren’t reliable. They have managed more points away from home this season compared to at home, and they sit rock bottom of the home form table with only nine points at home which is a very low return. No such thing as home advantage for the Saints! It’s hard to be confident on either side here to be honest, and I’m happy to stay away from the match odds market. Southampton haven’t been creating a lot of chances this season, and they have been scoring even less. Most of the low xG figures from Spurs this season have come away from home, so I’m happy with a small bet on Under 2.5 goals at 1.94. I feel Southampton will sit back here and play for a draw, and I can’t see Spurs blowing them away either. In the end I would lean towards Spurs grinding out a win, but you wouldn’t be surprised at all to see them lose 1-0 away from home again would you!
The Striker Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 1.94 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SouTot
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Since their return to the Premier League in 2012, Southampton have won just two of their 10 Premier League home games against Tottenham (D3 L5), with these wins coming consecutively in March 2019 and January 2020.
● Tottenham are looking to complete the Premier League double over Southampton for the seventh time, something they’ve only done as often against Man City (9), Aston Villa (7) and Everton (7).
● Southampton have scored at least once in each of their last 14 Premier League games against Spurs, since a 2-0 home loss in December 2015. However, they’ve kept just one clean sheet in their last 21 against them, a 1-0 win in January 2020.
● Between December 2019 and January 2021, Southampton won five of six Premier League games against sides starting the day in the top four of the table (L1). However, since then Saints are winless in 15 such games (D6 L9), conceding 43 goals and scoring just nine in return.
● Spurs have won eight of their last 10 Premier League games at 3pm on Saturday, losing the others against Leicester and Wolves this season. They beat Southampton in this kick-off slot on the opening weekend, last facing a side in both Premier League meetings in Saturday 3pm games in 2017-18 (D1 L1 vs West Brom and W2 vs Stoke).
● In all competitions, Tottenham have lost each of their last four away games, the last three of which without scoring. It’s Spurs’ longest run of away defeats in succession since May 2019 (5 in a row), while not since January 1983 have they lost four straight away matches all without scoring (a run of 5).
● Southampton’s James Ward-Prowse has been involved in more Premier League goals against Tottenham than he has any other opponent (8 – 4 goals, 4 assists). He opened the scoring for Saints in the reverse fixture this season but hasn’t scored home and away against Spurs in the same campaign before.
● Tottenham’s Harry Kane has been directly involved in 17 goals in 15 Premier League appearances against Southampton (11 goals, 6 assists), only having a hand in more against Leicester (22 – 18 goals, 4 assists). Kane is one goal away from scoring 10 away Premier League goals in a seventh different season – no other player in the competition’s history has done so more than four times.
● Tottenham’s Son Heung-min has scored more Premier League goals against Southampton than he has against any other opponent (10). The Korean has scored 99 Premier League goals overall and would be the first Asian player to reach 100 in the competition.
● Against no side has Richarlison scored more Premier League goals than he has against Southampton, with his five goals coming in his last seven games against them. The Brazilian is yet to score in 18 Premier League appearances for Tottenham, however.
WOLVES V LEEDS
3pm We finish the 3pm games with Wolves hosting Leeds in a massive game in the relegation battle. Wolves might feel including them in the relegation battle is a little harsh given they have moved up the table in recent weeks, but they start the weekend only three points away from the bottom three, and they’ve played a game more too. Leeds are four points behind Wolves as they sit in the bottom three, and it goes without saying that they need a win here. The major problem for Leeds heading into this game however is their away form – they have been poor away from home all season. They’ve only managed six points from their 13 games which is the joint-lowest return in the Premier League this season. While you wouldn’t say that Wolves have been very strong at home, it’s hard to support Leeds away from home at the moment. Their last four away games have finished with xG figures of 0.87, 0.79, 0.87 and 0.98. I know they’ve had to play Chelsea and Manchester United in that run, but they’ve also lost to Nottingham Forest and Everton. Leeds fans will say that they are much better than Wolves up front and create more – that is true, but can they put in a performance here?
These two actually met on the opening day of the season – Leeds won 2-1 with home advantage but we had a very even game. There was only 0.03 between them in the xG figures. Wolves were totally outplayed away from home last weekend against Newcastle, but they did beat Spurs in their last home game. I have to say I do expect a close game here – Wolves don’t create a lot up front. Their recent results have finished with them conceding a higher xG figure than they created. They basically have to grind out every result they have – they rarely blow sides away, apart from the 3-0 win over Liverpool here! You’d have to lean towards a Wolves win here, but the 2.24 does feel a little short in my opinion. I know Leeds have been very poor away from home this season, but it’s hard to justify the odds on Wolves when they have such a low average xG figure this season. They aren’t even taking all their chances too because their average goals scored is only 0.7! I’m happy to keep stakes small in this one, but the draw is worth a small bet at 3.35.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.35 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WolLee
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Having been unbeaten in six league games against Leeds between 2017 and 2021 (W5 D1), Wolves have lost their last two against the Whites.
● Following their 2-1 win on the opening weekend of the season, Leeds are looking to complete their first league double over Wolves since 2015-16, and first in the top-flight since 1973-74.
● Wolves have won three of their last four home league games (L1), more than they had in their previous 12 (W2 D3 L7). All five of their home league wins this season have been to nil, with Wolves winless in their last 10 league games in which they’ve conceded at Molineux (D2 L8).
● Leeds have earned four points from their three Premier League games under Javier Gracia (W1 D1 L1), as many as they had in their 10 games before his arrival (W0 D4 L6). However, the Whites are winless in their last seven away from home (D2 L5).
● Leeds have won each of their last three Premier League games when starting the day in the relegation zone, beating Brentford on the final day last season, and Liverpool and Southampton this term.
● No side has fewer away wins (1) or away points (6) in the Premier League this season than Leeds United, who have lost nine of their 13 away league games this term. Not since 2006-07 in the Championship have the Whites had as many as 10 away league defeats in 14 such matches from the start of a campaign.
● Wolves have a shot conversion rate of 6.8% in the Premier League this season, their lowest in any of their nine campaigns in the competition. Only once have they scored more than twice in a Premier League game this term, doing so in a 3-0 win over Liverpool in February.
● Wolves manager Julen Lopetegui has won both of his previous meetings with Leeds’ Javier Gracia in all competitions. These games came in the 2020-21 campaign, with Lopetegui’s Sevilla beating Gracia’s Valencia 1-0 in LaLiga and 3-0 in the Copa Del Rey.
● Leeds’ Patrick Bamford scored his second Premier League goal of the season and first as a starter against Brighton last time out. He last scored in consecutive Premier League appearances in May 2021.
● Wolves have had just three players score more than once for them in the Premier League this season – Rúben Neves (5), Daniel Podence (5) and Adama Traoré (2). No team has had fewer players score multiple goals so far this term.
CHELSEA V EVERTON
5.30pm We finish the day with Chelsea hosting Everton. This should be a good game, and we have plenty of talking points too! Chelsea have finally come good in recent weeks, and they have managed to put three wins together in all competitions. Obviously the highlight of that run was the 2-0 win over Dortmund in the Champions League. The UK press were on Graham Potter’s back, understandably so really, and there was talk of Potter getting sacked if he didn’t win against Leeds and Dortmund. Two wins eases the pressure, but if those rumours are actually true it’s not a good sign either. Being in a position where his job depends on certain results is not good! Chelsea had been unlucky to go on such a long run without a win because they were finishing games with xG figures of over 2.0 and still losing – the loss here against Southampton was a classic example. Sean Dyche will be hoping Chelsea return to not taking their chances here though, and you have to say he has done a great job since taking over. Another win last weekend over Brentford put Everton out of the relegation zone for the time being, and although they are still very much in trouble they are finally heading in the right direction.
It’s hard to read too much into the long-term Everton stats over the season because they have definitely improved since Dyche took over. However, they’ve only managed eight points away from home all season which has to be a worry here. They have been scoring an average of under one goal per game, and conceding an xG of 1.8 which is very high. However, since Dyche took over they have been creating a lot of chances. They have had xG figures of 2.05, 2.19, 1.77, 1.88 and 1.60 in their last five games. They might not have won every game, but they are impressive figures for a club like Everton. Chelsea come into the game as the heavy odds on favourites, but 1.49 isn’t an appealing price in my opinion. I just feel Everton are in a good place at the moment, and they can make this game closer than those odds suggest. I wouldn’t put anyone off a small Chelsea lay at the odds, but I like Over 2.5 goals here at 2.18. I was surprised to see this trading so high – Everton have attacked under Dyche and Chelsea have been creating good xG figures lately too. They have been conceding plenty of chances as well, their xG conceded against Leicester last weekend was 2.22 so I feel we’ll see goals here.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.18 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CheEve
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Chelsea are unbeaten in their last 27 Premier League home games against Everton (W15 D12) since a 1-0 loss in November 1994. Against no side have they ever had a longer unbeaten run at Stamford Bridge in their top-flight history.
● Before this season, Everton have beaten Chelsea in each of the last four Premier League campaigns, though all of their victories have been at home. They’ve not beaten the Blues in five straight league seasons since between 1931-32 and 1935-36.
● Following their 1-0 victory at Goodison Park on the opening weekend, Chelsea are looking to complete the league double over Everton for the first time since 2016-17.
● Everton are winless in their last 11 Premier League away games against London sides (D3 L8), failing to score in each of the last four. The Toffees last went five league games without a goal in London between April and October 2005, while they last had a longer winless run in the capital between 1970 and 1974 (17).
● Chelsea have won their last two Premier League games, as many as they had in their previous 15 combined (D6 L7). They last won more consecutively in September/October – a run of four which included Graham Potter’s first three games in charge.
● Everton have won three of their seven Premier League games under Sean Dyche so far (D1 L3), as many as they had in their 20 matches under Frank Lampard this season (D6 L11).
● Everton have won just two of their last 30 Premier League away games (D8 L20), while also keeping just two clean sheets in this run. Indeed, since the start of last season, the Toffees have won fewer away games (3) and earned fewer points on the road (18) than any of the 17 ever-present sides.
● Chelsea have scored five goals in their last two games (2-0 v Borussia Dortmund, 3-1 v Leicester), as many as they had in their previous 12 in all competitions. The Blues are also looking to keep three consecutive home clean sheets in all competitions for the first time since September 2021.
● 40% of Sean Dyche’s Premier League victories (30/75) have been by a 1-0 scoreline, including all three of his wins as Everton manager. Of the 52 managers with at least 50 wins in the competition, only Tony Pulis (42%) has won a higher share by that exact score (41/98).
● Kai Havertz is looking to score in three consecutive appearances for Chelsea in all competitions for the second time, previously doing so in March 2022. The German is the Blues’ top scorer in all competitions this term (8).
