SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Saturday’s three games with FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet. Starting with CRYSTAL PALACE v WEST HAM at 12.30pm.
CRYSTAL PALACE V WEST HAM
12.30pm We have a shorter than usual Premier League fixture list on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this Saturday after a very busy midweek fixture list! We only have three games to look at, and we don’t have a late kick off fixture either. We do have three very interesting markets though, and we start the day with Crystal Palace hosting West Ham. Both sides suffered losses midweek with Palace losing 2-0 away to Wolves and West Ham losing 2-1 to Liverpool. That ended the unbeaten run of Roy Hodgson since he returned as Crystal Palace manager, and although it was a disappointing performance Palace have been pretty impressive since he took over. You couldn’t probably just about still include West Ham in the relegation battle, they are five points ahead of Leicester starting the weekend though and it would be a shock if they went down. That Nottingham Forest win does open things up a little though, and I feel West Ham just have get something from this game because they play Manchester City and Manchester United in their next two fixtures. Then they have a pretty “easy” run-in on paper, but they do have a Europa Conference League Semi-Final which will obviously pull their focus away.
The fixture list is a good motivation for the Hammers here in my opinion. Win here and relax – go into that Semi-Final without worry domestically will be the target. This should be a very close game though, and we have the most open market of the day by far. Crystal Palace are marginal favourites at the time of writing at 2.84 but there’s only six ticks between the sides as West Ham are 2.6 while the draw is 3.25. Away form has been a major issue for West Ham this season; they only have 12 points away from home this season but they have won their last two games away from home against Fulham and Bournemouth. Not great quality opposition but certainly an improvement and they were two decent performances too. They played very well in between those wins at home against Arsenal as well, but you could say Palace have been playing their best football of the season too since the change in management. I fully understand why we have an open market here, it’s hard to see anything bar a very close game, and the draw is worth a small investment at 3.25.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.25 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CryWes
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Following their 2-1 win at the London Stadium in November, Crystal Palace are looking to complete the Premier League double over West Ham for the third time (also in 2013-14 and 2019-20).
● West Ham have lost just one of their last eight away league games against Crystal Palace (W5 D2), with their last two visits both ending in 3-2 victories.
● Crystal Palace haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 17 Premier League games against West Ham, though they’ve also scored against them in each of the last 11. Only two Premier League fixtures have seen both teams score in more consecutive meetings than this one (11) – Fulham v Man City (15 between 2004 and 2011) and Newcastle v Wolves (13 between 2003 and 2021).
● The team scoring first has won just one of the last 11 Premier League meetings between Crystal Palace and West Ham (D5 L5), with that win coming for the Hammers in this exact fixture last season.
● Crystal Palace have earned just five points from their nine Premier League London derby matches so far this season (W1 D2 L6), though their only victory so far came in the reverse fixture at West Ham.
● West Ham have won their last two Premier League away games, as many as they had in their previous 21 (D4 L15). They won 1-0 at Fulham and 4-0 at Bournemouth but haven’t won three in a row on the road without conceding since a run of four between April and September 2007.
● Crystal Palace have won just one of their last nine Premier League home games (D5 L3), failing to score on six occasions in that run. They’re unbeaten in their two at Selhurst Park since Roy Hodgson’s return to the club, however (W1 D1).
● Crystal Palace have failed to score in 15 different Premier League games this season. Since they returned to the top-flight in 2013, they’ve only failed to score in more games in two campaigns – 17 in 2013-14 and 16 in 2019-20.
● Lucas Paquetá has scored in each of his last two Premier League appearances for West Ham, netting as many times in those games as in his first 21 league games for the Hammers (two goals). Paquetá last netted in three league games in a row in September 2021 for Lyon in Ligue 1.
● Declan Rice could become only the sixth player to make 200 Premier League appearances for West Ham United should he feature in this game. Aged 24 years and 105 days on the day of this game, he will be the ninth youngest to this milestone in the Premier League overall, and youngest since Raheem Sterling in 2018 (23y 325d).
BRENTFORD V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
3pm Just the two games kicking off at 3pm this week, and we start with Brentford hosting Nottingham Forest. Both sides would have been absolutely delighted with their midweek wins with Brentford beating Chelsea 2-0 away from home and Nottingham Forest beating Brighton 3-1. Will Frank Lampard ever win a game as Chelsea manager you might ask!? That win pushed Forest out of the bottom three and they have given themselves a real chance of staying up now. They wouldn’t have been expected to win that game, but the pressure is still on. The major issue for Forest this season has been their away form – they have only managed six points away from home this season which has really put them in the position they find themselves in. That’s the worst return away from home in the Premier League. Clearly they have been much better in front of their own fans, and it’s hard to support Forest in the markets in any away game. They have a tricky run in too – they have to play Arsenal and Chelsea, plus have this away game and then Crystal Palace away from home on the final game. Obviously they will target the home fixture against Southampton, but a win there might not be enough and they’ll need something elsewhere.
Brentford have been a very entertaining side to watch this season. Their average xG created is 1.8 and their average conceded is 1.6. Most of their games are end-to-end, and I would expect another very entertaining game here. Forest have been conceding goals for fun, especially away from home, and their average xG conceded is 2.0. They have an issue going forward – they are scoring less than one goal per game on average this season – but Brentford will give them chances. With the Forest away record, I’m sure Brentford will be a very popular bet at 1.7 here – indeed, I couldn’t put anyone off the home win. However, I really like Over 2.5 goals at 2.02. I was very surprised to see it trading marginally odds against when I clicked into the market. Both sides have been involved in lots of high scoring games this season, and both tend to fight fire-with-fire when they go behind. I think this game screams goals, and at 2.02 it’s worth a Max Bet in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.02 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BreNot
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Brentford have won just one of their last six league games against Nottingham Forest (D2 L3), with the only previous Premier League meeting between the sides ending 2-2 in November.
● Nottingham Forest have won two of their last four away league games against Brentford (D1 L1), having won just one of their first 12 visits between 1933 and 2016 (D6 L5).
● Nottingham Forest have lost nine of their last 11 Premier League away games against London sides (W1 D1), losing all four this season by an aggregate score 14-1.
● Brentford have won both of their home Premier League games against the promoted sides so far this season, having failed to win any of their three away from home against them (D2 L1).
● Brentford have failed to score in just two of their last 18 Premier League home games, with both failures coming against fellow London sides this season (0-3 v Arsenal, 0-0 v Chelsea).
● Nottingham Forest have lost their last six Premier League away games, conceding at least twice in each defeat. They last lost more consecutive league games on the road between January-March 2010 (7), while they last did so in the top-flight between October and February in 1961-62 (9).
● Both Brentford and Nottingham Forest won their last Premier League games, despite enjoying far less possession than their opponents – Brentford with 27% vs Chelsea, Forest with 25% vs Brighton. It was the Bees’ fourth win of the season with fewer than 30% possession, the most by a team in a season since Crystal Palace in 2016-17 (also four).
● Nottingham Forest have the fewest points (6) and fewest goals scored (7) in Premier League away games this season. However, they scored more than once in an away league game in their 3-2 defeat at Liverpool last time out.
● Brentford striker Ivan Toney has scored in both of his previous league games against Nottingham Forest, with each of these coming in the Bees’ 2020-21 promotion season from the Championship.
● Nottingham Forest’s Morgan Gibbs-White has been involved in three goals in his last two Premier League appearances (2 goals, 1 assist), netting in both games. No Forest player has scored in three consecutive top-flight appearances this season, with Dougie Freedman the last to do so in March 1999.
BRIGHTON V WOLVES
3pm We finish Saturday in the Premier League earlier than usual as Brighton host Wolves. We have another side here who struggle away from home – from the sides sitting in the bottom five of the away form table, three of them are away today! Wolves have only managed 11 points from their 16 away games this season – not as bad as Nottingham Forest above but a reason why they have hung around the relegation battle this season. A win on Tuesday over Crystal Palace means they don’t have to worry heading into their final games, and they have won their last three home games just at the right time. In between those three wins though they lost away to Leicester, and Leicester also created their highest xG of the season against them too. That performance and results probably just highlights their issues away from home. Brighton come into this fixture needing a boost in confidence – they were beaten 3-1 away to Nottingham Forest midweek after losing to Manchester United on penalties in the FA Cup last weekend. As I said in my preview of their midweek game, when you go through you get a boost but when you get knocked out you feel it in your legs – it was a long and intense game – it will be interesting to see their performance here.
Brighton come into the game the heavy odds on favourites. They are trading 1.55 at the time of writing with Wolves 7.2 and the draw is 4.6. I look at this market, and nothing jumps off the page here. I wouldn’t be rushing to back Brighton as short as 1.55 after their last two games, and then you wouldn’t be keen to support Wolves away from home. I feel the best option here is to stay away from the match odds market, the best option when there is no value on offer is not to force anything. Brighton have been fantastic going forward this season – their average xG is 2.1 this season but Wolves have had issues going forward. Their average xG created is only 1.1 this season, and they are scoring less than one goal per game this season too. I feel Brighton will keep a clean sheet here, and Both Teams Not To Score is a nice bet at 1.94 but I’m happy to keep stakes small here.
The Striker Says:
One point win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.94 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BriWol
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Brighton are looking to complete their first league double over Wolves since 2016-17, following their 3-2 win at Molineux in November.
● Wolves won this exact fixture 1-0 last season but have never won consecutive away league games against Brighton.
● Brighton have scored at least three goals in five different Premier League home games this season, as many times as they’d managed in the previous two campaigns combined. Indeed, only Arsenal and Manchester City have scored 3+ goals in more different home games this season.
● Wolves haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 13 Premier League away games, since a goalless draw at Bournemouth in August. Wolves are winless in their last five on the road (D2 L3), having won two of their first four under Julen Lopetegui (D1 L1).
● Brighton and Hove Albion have lost two of their last three Premier League matches (W1), as many as in their previous 13 combined (W7 D4). Their 3-1 defeat to Nottingham Forest was their heaviest in a league game when scoring first since May 2019, a 4-1 loss to Manchester City.
● Wolves have won three of their last four Premier League games (L1), not conceding a goal in any of these victories. It’s as many clean sheets as they’d managed in their previous 19 Premier League matches beforehand.
● This will be Wolves manager Julen Lopetegui’s 200th top-flight match in charge across spells in Portugal, Spain, and England (W110 D52 L37). He drew his 50th, won his 100th, and lost his 150th such matches.
● Daniel Podence is the only Wolves player to score more than once away from home in the Premier League this season, netting 33% of their goals on the road so far (4/12).
● Wolves have benefitted from three own goals in the Premier League this season, with all of these coming since February. No Wolves player has scored more than twice in the league in that time.
● Brighton’s Facundo Buonanotte scored on his first Premier League start against Nottingham Forest in midweek, aged just 18 years and 124 days. Should he start and score in this game, he would be the youngest player in Premier League history to score in his first two starts, breaking the record set by Ritchie Humphreys in 1996 (18y 264d).
