SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews the first Premier League Saturday of the new season with the action underway at 12.30pm with Arsenal v Nottingham Forest at the Emirates. All matches include FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ARSENAL V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
12.30pm The Premier League season is finally upon us, and we have a brilliant Saturday ahead on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We have six matches to enjoy and plenty of talking points as we begin a new season which is full of hope (at the moment!) for every club. We kick off the day with Arsenal hosting Nottingham Forest. These two were involved in plenty of drama last season with Arsenal getting themselves into a position to win the title and Nottingham Forest getting into danger in the relegation battle before saving themselves. Forest actually managed to beat Arsenal 1-0 in the second last game last season, however Arsenal hammered them 5-0 earlier in the season when they had home advantage. I’m sure Arsenal will benefit greatly from being involved in the title race last season, and although they came up massively short when the pressure came on, it should stand to them. They are clear second favourites heading into this season, and improvement will be expected – especially after the Declan Rice signing too.
As you would expect, Arsenal come into the game as the heavy odds on favourites. The home win is trading 1.28 at the time of writing which is the shortest price of any side over the opening weekend. Nottingham Forest are trading 13.0 while the draw is 6.8. Although Forest finished the season very strongly, they still had massive issues at the back. Their average xG conceded last season was 1.9 which is very high, and if they don’t improve that they will be in the relegation battle again. With Arsenal having one of the best records going forward last season, it’s really hard to see past the home win here. However, it’s hard to make the case that Arsenal should be shorter than their current 1.28 in my opinion – I just don’t see any value in that price. Arsenal weren’t expected to be in the title race last season, and they basically had no pressure. This time is different, and the jury is definitely out looking at how they handled pressure last season. I can see them winning, but it might not be pretty. Under 2.5 goals is worth a small bet at 2.76 or bigger.
The Striker Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.76 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ArsNtt
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Arsenal are unbeaten in their last nine home league games against Nottingham Forest (W5 D4) since a 3-1 defeat in March 1989. One of those nine unbeaten games was a 2-1 win in their first game of the season in 1998-99 – the last campaign in which Forest were relegated from the Premier League.
● Nottingham Forest beat Arsenal 1-0 in their most recent league meeting in May – they haven’t won consecutive games against the Gunners since September 1978 under Brian Clough.
● Arsenal have begun their Premier League campaign with a game in London in 10 of the last 11 seasons, with the exception being a 1-0 win at Newcastle in 2019-20. This is their first opening game on home soil since losing 2-0 to Man City in 2018-19.
● Nottingham Forest have lost their opening league game in each of the last four seasons – they’ve never done in five consecutive campaigns before.
BOURNEMOUTH V WEST HAM
3pm We have four games kicking off at 3pm, and we start the action with Bournemouth hosting West Ham. Bournemouth will be hoping for a better start to this season than last, however at the end of the day their sole goal last season was to stay up and they achieved that. We have Luton Town and Sheffield United odds on to go down this season, and Bournemouth will be hoping the markets are correct because you’d have to feel that they are one of the other sides in danger. They finished strongly under pressure which is always impressive, but their stats are a major worry. Their average xG conceded was a very high 1.8 and they didn’t create much going forward – their average xG created was only 1.1. Those stats are relegation standard to be honest. West Ham were involved in the relegation battle at times with Bournemouth, they were never in danger of going down or getting seriously involved in the relegation battle, but that was a reflection of their poor season domestically. They went from battling for a European spot to not being far away from the relegation battle.
Their domestic season was quickly forgotten when they lifted the Europa Conference League title however! They solid Declan Rice for big money, and now it’s up to David Moyes to try and replace the balance of the side without Rice in midfield. That’s a big ask, and it will be very interesting to see how the Hammers start their season. On paper, they have a reasonably easy start here against Bournemouth, but West Ham’s away form was a major issue last season. Bournemouth will also be thinking this is a relatively easy fixture to start! West Ham only managed 12 points away from home last season, which put them just outside the bottom three on the away table. We have a very open betting heat here – West Ham are the favourites at 2.6 which is OK in my book – you couldn’t have Bournemouth as favourites – however, I feel the value play here is the draw at 3.45. This should be a very close game, and I’d have the draw a little shorter.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.45 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BouWhm
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Bournemouth have lost their last three Premier League games against West Ham without scoring a single goal – they had only lost two of their first nine against the Hammers (W4 D3), scoring in all but one of those games.
● West Ham have never lost against Bournemouth in the Premier League with David Moyes in charge (W3 D2), with their four defeats against them coming under Slaven Bilic (2) and Manuel Pellegrini (2).
● Bournemouth have started their league campaign with a home game in each of the last five seasons (W3 D2), beating Aston Villa 2-0 on their return to the Premier League last term.
● West Ham have lost their opening game of the season more often than any other side in Premier League history (15), while David Moyes has lost such games more often than any other manager (10).
BRIGHTON V LUTON TOWN
3pm Next we have Brighton hosting Luton Town, and you’ll see Luton Town in the news a lot over the next few weeks given their home ground! We should see some excellent pictures from their home ground, and what a low level it is compared to other Premier League grounds. Money talks in football these days, especially in the Premier League, and it really is hard to see Luton surviving this season. You’d love if they did of course, but it is hard to see. They are heavy odds on favourites to go down. They face a tough challenge away from home here too against a top class Brighton side. Brighton were exceptional going forward last season, they had an average xG of 2.1 and fully deserved their spot in the Top Six and also in Europe. That was a massive achievement for the club, and shows all the hard work they have put in behind the scenes. They are owned by a Professional Gambler, and most of their play is xG based – that’s been a huge success for them.
One wonders whether or not Graham Potter regrets moving to Chelsea, but that’s a topic for another day! Brighton come into this game as the heavy favourites – they are trading 1.35 at the time of writing and I couldn’t put anyone off including them in their opening weekend Acca at those odds. Brighton always tend to create a lot away from home, and it’s hard to see this Luton side living with them. Luton tried to keep games as tight as possible in the Championship last season, and you can see them employing the same tactics in the Premier League. It will be very interesting to see how successful they are over the next few weeks, but I like Brighton on the handicap here. The 1.8 -1.5 goals looks a very nice price, and it’s a confident bet.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Brighton -1.5 goals to beat Luton Town at 1.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BriLut
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Brighton and Luton haven’t met in a league game since 2007-08, with the Seagulls winning both games in League One that season. In the top-flight, their only two meetings were in 1982-83, both wins for the Hatters (5-0 home, 4-2 away).
● This is the first time Brighton and Luton will meet in their first league games of a season since the 1928-29 campaign in the Third Division South, won 1-0 by the Hatters.
● Brighton have won their opening league game in each of the last two seasons, last doing so in three consecutive campaigns between 1974-75 and 1976-77.
● This will be Luton’s first top-flight game since a 2-1 loss to Notts County in May 1992. They’re the 51st team to play in the Premier League, with two of the last three clubs making their debut in the competition winning their opening match (Huddersfield in 2017, Brentford in 2021).
EVERTON V FULHAM
3pm This is an interesting fixture! Everton and Fulham have very similar profiles this season, and perhaps this result can set the tone for both of their seasons! Everton were involved in another relegation battle last season, and while Fulham had a wonderful season results wise their performances were average. That’s why they are trading at similar odds to get relegated this season. Everton’s average xG conceded last season was 1.5 while Fulham’s was a very high 1.9. They managed to finish just inside the top ten, but when you look at the stats from Fulham you’d have to worry about this season. You simply cannot afford to concede that many chances at this level and get away with it. Sean Dyche has done a wonderful job at Everton, but they haven’t had a good transfer window and it will be interesting to see does he come under pressure if it looks like they will be in another relegation battle.
Fulham would be one of my outside (4.0+) bets to go down this season. Their xG figures are just so poor. I do feel for both sides getting off to a positive start will be very important, because morale and momentum is a massive factor when you’re at the level of these two. I have to say I was expecting an open market when I clicked into this market, and I was very surprised to see Everton as short as 2.22. I’m not a fan of Fulham so I’m going to keep stakes very limited, but the 2.22 jumps off the page as a good value lay here. Everton were very poor at home last season; they actually finished in the bottom three on the home form table and while Fulham conceded a lot of chances last season, they still managed to find results and couple that with Everton’s poor home form and 2.22 is just too short in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Everton to beat Fulham at 2.22 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EveFlm
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Everton won their first 14 home Premier League matches against Fulham between 2002 and 2018 but have lost each of their last two against the Cottagers at Goodison Park, going down 3-1 in April most recently.
● Fulham have faced Everton in their opening game of a top-flight season twice previously and lost both games, losing 3-0 in 1963-64 and 1-0 in 1966-67.
● Everton have only lost their opening Premier League game in one of the last 11 seasons (W4 D6), though that defeat did come at home to Chelsea last season.
● When they’re not a newly promoted club, Fulham are unbeaten in their last five MD1 games in the Premier League (W3 D2), keeping a clean sheet each time. This is their first such game since a 1-0 win at Sunderland in 2013-14.
SHEFFIELD UNITED V CRYSTAL PALACE
3pm We finish the 3pm games with Sheffield United hosting Crystal Palace, and you could be forgiven for skipping over this game. This definitely has a feel of only getting two minutes on Match of the Day! It’s hard to see the standard being too high here, but Crystal Palace will be viewing this game as a good chance to start their season on a positive note. They were terrible last season under Patrick Vieira, but turned things around under the evergreen Roy Hodgson who came in as caretaker manager until the end of the season. Hodgson has agreed to stay on as manager for this season too, and the 75 year old shows no signs of slowing down! Sheffield United were clear second best in the Championship, but they are odds on to go back down this season; themselves and Luton are the big favourites in the relegation market, and they would desperately love a winning start to get the momentum going. This game is marginally the most open market of the day with Sheffield United 3.0, Crystal Palace 2.66 and the draw is 3.3.
Palace were pretty solid away from home last season despite throwing in some woeful performances under Vieira. I won’t be judging their overall figures too harshly given the improvement that came under Hodgson but they have to start creating more. Their average xG last season was only 1.2, and they are conceding more chances. Sheffield United couldn’t be faulted in the Championship – their average xG was 1.8 and their average conceded was only 1.0. They will be hoping to keep those solid figures at the back – it’s hard to see them having as much success going forward at this level. I can see a very cagey affair here between two sides who actually aren’t far away from each other in terms of ability. Palace are rightfully favourites, but I feel the match odds market is right here. Under 2.5 goals is my bet at 1.68 – I don’t see many chances in this one.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.68 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SfuCry
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Sheffield United have lost just one of their last five home league games against Crystal Palace (W3 D1), though it was their last such meeting in May 2021 (0-2).
● All six Premier League meetings between Sheffield United and Crystal Palace have seen the winning team keep a clean sheet – the Eagles won both meetings in both 1992-93 and 2020-21, while the Blades won both in 2019-20.
● Sheffield United have won their opening league game in just one of the last nine seasons (D1 L7), beating Brentford 1-0 in 2017-18. They’ve lost their last three in a row, only once having a longer such run (4 between 1928-29 and 1931-32).
● Crystal Palace have lost their opening league game in each of the last two seasons (0-3 v Chelsea, 0-2 v Arsenal). They’ve never done so in three consecutive top-flight campaigns before.
NEWCASTLE V ASTON VILLA
5.30pm We finish the first Saturday of the season in the Premier League with Newcastle hosting Aston Villa. We have two clubs here who will be very excited heading into the 2023/24 season – both will be expecting great things and their fans will also get to experience Europe too which is fantastic. It’s hard to believe how far these two have come, but here we are. When the Saudi money arrived for Newcastle they were in the relegation battle and now they have Champions League football. While when Unai Emery took over at Aston Villa last season they were closer to a relegation battle than European football! It will be interesting to see how both clubs cope with the added stress of the bigger fixture list, but it’s good worries to have I’m sure. It’s hard to fault Newcastle last season, they finished with an average xG of 2.1 and an average conceded of 1.2. They fully deserved their spot in the Top Four, and had better stats than Manchester United for example. They were only beaten twice at home too, and this is a tough test for Villa.
I’m not going to read too much into the overall stats from Villa because it was night-and-day the difference between Emery and Gerrard. They were exceptionally poor going forward under Gerrard but Emery transformed the side. They definitely weren’t as good away from home compared to at home, and that could prove to be the difference here. The 1.78 on Newcastle is a nice price in my opinion, it’s nothing to go crazy on considering it’s the opening weekend of the season, but it’s a nice value price. Newcastle were exceptional last season, and at times I felt they were very undervalued from the market too. That’s changed now because everyone knows just how good this Newcastle side is now, but the 1.78 still offers some value here. Villa will have another good season in my opinion, but there is a big gulf in class between the sides. We should have an excellent Saturday ahead, and it’s great to have the Premier League back!
The Striker Says:
Two points win Newcastle to beat Aston Villa at 1.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NewAvl
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Newcastle are unbeaten in their last 14 Premier League home games against Aston Villa (W8 D6) since a 3-0 loss in April 2005.
● Aston Villa beat Newcastle 3-0 at Villa Park in April, but haven’t won consecutive Premier League meetings with the Magpies since doing the double over them in 2004-05.
● Newcastle have won their opening league game in two of the last three seasons (L1), having done so in just one of their previous 12 campaigns (D4 L7). Following their 2-0 win against Nottingham Forest last season, The Magpies are looking to win their opening league game in consecutive campaigns for the first time since 2006-07/2007-08.
● Aston Villa have lost their opening league game in each of the last two seasons, losing against promoted sides on both occasions (Watford in 2021-22, Bournemouth in 2022-23). They’ve not lost their first league game in three consecutive campaigns since doing so between 1967-68 and 1969-70 in the second tier.
