SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Saturday’s five matches including a recommended BETDAQ bet.
CRYSTAL PALACE V FULHAM
3pm We have another excellent Saturday on BETDAQ Betting Exchange from the Premier League this week! We have no early kick off this weekend, so we start the weekend with three fixtures at 3pm. The first of which is Crystal Palace hosting Fulham and we have an interesting market here. I’m sure there will be some big opinions either side of the book on the Crystal Palace price at exactly 2.0 at the time of writing with Fulham trading 4.3 and the draw is 3.7. Both sides have had a positive start to the season results wise, and they sit right beside each other in the table just inside the top half with seven points. Performance wise, Crystal Palace have been much the better side though, and I have to say the 2.0 is a very tempting bet to start the day. I know we’ve spoke about this before, but Fulham were very lucky to finish where they did last season as they conceded a host of chances. There was quite a big difference in their xG conceded and goals conceded in the end, but you have to give them huge credit for grinding out as many result as they did. Plus, they were decent going forward too which got them a lot of results.
The xG figures for Fulham are poor again this season. They have created the lowest average this season at 0.80 after five games, and they are conceded an average xG of 1.78 too. That makes for pretty poor reading. They did manage to pick up a 2-2 draw at Arsenal which deserves huge credit, but their two wins have come against Everton and Luton Town who will surely both be in the relegation battle this season. I wouldn’t be a huge fan of Crystal Palace, but they are playing nice football under Roy Hodgson – their average xG is 1.55 which is the seventh highest in the Premier League this season. It’s basic mid-table figures I know, but their performance level is far greater than Fulham’s. With home advantage here it’s hard to see past Palace at 2.0 and they are a confident bet to start the day.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Crystal Palace to beat Fulham at 2.0 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CryFlm
LUTON TOWN V WOLVES
3pm Next we have a fascinating fixture as Luton host Wolves. We’re only five games into the season, four games for Luton, but these two already feel like they are certain to be in the relegation battle. Luton have lost all four of their games while Wolves have only managed a win over Everton which is hardly a good formbook either. A win for either here might actually kick start their season and give them some confidence – I feel it’s a much more important game for Luton because a win for Wolves would really see Luton struggling. You don’t mind them losing to the likes of Brighton and Chelsea away; but losing to Wolves at home is definitely a major red flag for relegation. It’s early days in the season, but the stakes couldn’t be higher here. Wolves come into the game as favourites at 2.32 with Luton Town 3.45 and the draw is 3.55. Neither side have great xG figures, and their performances have clearly been very average. Neither side are a side you could trust to be honest, and it will be very interesting to see who comes out on top today, if indeed we actually do get a winner.
Luton have the second worst record up front this season. They have only managed to create an average xG of 0.84 – only Fulham have a worst record up front with an average xG of 0.8. The issue for Luton as well is they are conceding an average xG of 1.83 which is exceptionally high compared to what they are creating. We are judging them after only four games, but you’d have to say they don’t look up to Premier League standard at the moment. Unfortunately money talks in the Premier League, and that’s where Luton struggle. Wolves’ figures aren’t much better. They are conceding a high xG too at 1.80 and only creating an average of 1.25 going forward. We have two sides here with issues at the back, but neither might be good enough to take advantage! I can see a cagey game with so much at stake too, and Under 2.5 goals jumps off the page here at 1.9. I was tempted by the draw at 3.55, but I wasn’t expecting to see Under 2.5 goals trading as big as 1.9.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.9 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LutWol
MANCHESTER CITY V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
3pm We finish the 3pm fixtures with the shortest price of the weekend in the Premier League as Manchester City host Nottingham Forest. It’s fair to say that the market is very confident on a home win here with City trading as short as 1.18 at the time of writing. If you fancy a shock, Nottingham Forest are 20.0 with the draw at 9.4. Although 1.18 is a very short price, it’s not even the shortest price City have been this week! They were 1.08 to win in the Champions League midweek against Red Star Belgrade – they actually suffered a shock just before half-time when Red Star Belgrade took the lead but City controlled the second half and won 3-1 in the end. This game is more than likely going to be how many goals City can score rather than will the win. City are the only side left in the Premier League with a 100% record, but they have been conceding the odd goal recently. Sheffield United, Fulham, West Ham and then Red Star Belgrade all managed to score. City seem to have a different gear when they go behind or get into trouble, but that’s something to keep an eye on.
They also have injury worries. I saw a joke on Twitter this week saying poor Guardiola with his injury list; he can only replace when with £50-60 million players! That’s Man City for you isn’t it. Guardiola held a bizarre press conference this week saying Nottingham Forest had more Champions Leagues than City; I’m not really sure what he gets from saying things like that but anyway. City have one of the best average xG figures going forward in the Premier League, and they are also conceding the least amount of chances too. Their average xG conceded is only 0.77, and I know they have been giving away the odd sloppy goal, they are actually less likely to do that in the big games in my opinion. Forest have been conceding a lot of goals and this could be a game where City rack up four or five goals. Both Teams To Score is tempting at 2.29 but Any Other Home Win (City to score four or more and win) is worth backing in the Correct Score market at 2.91.
The Striker Says:
One point win Any Other Home Win Correct Score at 2.91 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MciNtt
BRENTFORD V EVERTON
5.30pm We have a very interesting market next as Brentford host Everton. Brentford come into this game as the odds on favourites – currently trading 1.84 at the time of writing – but they’ve only won once in their opening five games and it will be interesting to see can they put this average Everton side to the sword. Everton have had a desperate start to the season and they look nailed on to be in the relegation mix. They are “lucky” that Luton Town and Sheffield United don’t look up to Premier League standard – those two are decent odds on to get relegated but I wouldn’t be surprised if Everton took up that third spot. They’ve yet to win a game this season, but in fairness to Dyche’s men they have lost 1-0 three times so they aren’t getting hammered every week. They could only draw 2-2 with Sheffield United and also got beaten 1-0 by Wolves with home advantage. That’s two major red flags when it comes to relegation to be honest. It will be interesting to see do we get any dressing room problems, or indeed do the owners get trigger happy with Dyche. It’s not a good situation at the moment!
In fairness to Everton if you look at their xG figures, they haven’t played that badly. It’s very marginal, but they are creating more chances than they are conceding. Their average xG created is 1.41 and their average conceded is 1.37. Fulham, for example, have no relegation worries but their xG figures are terrible. If Everton’s were that bad you’d be really worried! Everton seem to lack the fight to grind out results, and against a Brentford side that will keep attacking they might struggle here. Brentford have opted to go down the same path as the likes of Brighton with an xG model, and they have had great success with that thus far. They are creating an average xG of 1.48 which is a decent figure. They play a very open game so we should have chances here; I just don’t see Everton being good enough up front to take advantage. I’m not going to go mad with the stakes, but the 1.84 is worth backing on Brentford.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Brentford to beat Everton at 1.84 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BreEvr
BURNLEY V MANCHESTER UNITED
8pm It’s not our usual schedule to have a late game on Saturday, but we have a fascinating one this week as Burnley host Manchester United. Will we see more pain for United? The club is definitely under a cloud at the moment; another loss mid-week in the Champions League has piled the pressure on this fixture. We’re not quite in “must win” territory yet, but United need something to kick start their season very soon. Even the wins against Wolves and Nottingham Forest at home were filled with poor play and raised more questions than answers. We had more examples of players not tracking back on Wednesday night at Bayern Munich – you have to ask the question; are the players working hard enough? I don’t see this being the managers fault. Once again we had massive errors on Wednesday night from individuals that cost United massively. The Onana error for the first goal just shouldn’t happen really, but life goes on. Burnley are sitting in the relegation zone with only one point from four games, and they will surely be eying up this fixture as an excellent chance to notch up some points. I’m sure they’ve went through every tape of United players not tracking back, and you’d expect an exceptionally high work rate and energy from Burnley here.
United are the odds on favourites – they are trading 1.8 at the time of writing with Burnley 4.6 and the draw is 4.3. I have to say nothing makes me want to back United here at the odds. They just haven’t been playing well enough to back them at odds on. They have got away with average performances at home against weaker opposition but I can definitely see them struggling away from home. They have had a reasonably difficult fixture list having lost to Spurs, Arsenal and Brighton but they are conceding more chances than they are creating at the moment. Their average xG conceded is pretty high at 1.62. Burnley’s is high too at 1.7 and although I couldn’t put anyone off the United lay at the odds because I fully expect a closer game than those odds suggest, Over 2.5 goals looks a cracking bet here at 1.65. Burnley will give United plenty of chances and I would be surprised if United were able to keep a clean sheet as well. Overs is a confident bet to finish the day.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.65 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BurMnu
