🆕 THE STRIKER: Got off to a flying start with his selections on the Premier League. He now previews the Super Sunday action including the Merseyside derby EVERTON v LIVERPOOL at 7pm. Don’t miss his preview with recommended BETDAQ bets and extended match stats.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
NEWCASTLE V SHEFF UTD
2pm Super Sunday is back! Sheffield United were unlucky not to come back with a win on Wednesday night as they had a clear goal not given by the technology, however apart from that they actually created very little. Newcastle have kept things very tight here all season but their xG numbers are very poor. They have only conceded 12 goals, but they have conceded an xG of nearly 27. They are lucky to be where they are in the league. A similar conceded stat could be applied to Sheffield United; they have conceded 12 goals but gave up an xG of nearly 22.
On paper, it looks like there will be very little goals between these two. But they are conceding chances and with Sheffield United surely improving for their game against Villa, I feel under 2.5 goals doesn’t offer any value at around 1.6. I’d only be a backer at 1.8. The draw is a good price at 3.2 here, as Newcastle do battle hard and Sheffield United need to create more after Wednesday night. It’s hard to see anything but a close game here.
The Striker Says:
One point win on the Draw at 3.2 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQncasut
MATCH STATS
- Newcastle United have won their last four league games against Sheffield United, with their last defeat against the Blades coming in their last Premier League meeting at St James’ Park in November 2006 (0-1).
- This is Sheffield United’s first away league visit to Newcastle since a Championship match in April 2010, losing 2-1.
- In all competitions, Newcastle have won five of their last six home games against Sheffield United, losing the other in November 2006 in the Premier League. The Magpies have netted 14 goals across those five victories.
- This will be just Newcastle’s second league match played in the month of June, with their other ending in a 2-4 defeat to Newport County in the second tier back in 1947.
- Newcastle are the joint-lowest home scorers in the Premier League this season (12), and are yet to score more than twice in any of their 14 league games at St James’ Park this season.
- Newcastle are looking to pick up back-to-back Premier League victories for the first time since December, with one of their wins back then coming against Sheffield United.
- Newcastle have kept a clean sheet in five of their last six home Premier League games against promoted sides (W2 D3 L1), with the exception being a 1-2 loss against Wolves last season.
- Though he hasn’t scored in six appearances since December, Jonjo Shelvey has scored more than twice as many Premier League goals as any other Newcastle player this season (5), with his five goals coming from just 10 shots on target.
- Among the 41 teams Newcastle manager Steve Bruce has faced at least 10 times in his managerial career, only against QPR (73.3%) does he have a better win ratio than against former side Sheffield United (72.7%), winning eight of his 11 games against them.
- Sheffield United manager Chris Wilder’s only previous visit to Newcastle came in a League Cup tie in August 2015, with his Northampton side losing 1-4.
ASTON VILLA V CHELSEA
4.15pm While Villa benefited from a failure in goal line technology, you have to say that they did perform reasonably well against Sheffield United on Wednesday. They didn’t score but created an xG of 1.38 which is an improvement from 0.67 against Leicester and .42 against Southampton before lockdown. Chelsea have a face run-in in the race for a Top Four finish, and they need to win games like this. They have been performing well this season, and I like them to win at 1.57 but that won’t be my bet here.
Under 2.5 goals jumps off the page to me. I checked the market odds expecting to see around 2.0 after doing my tissue prices, and I seen 2.46 on unders! Chelsea are rock solid at the back, only conceding an xG of 1.46 per away game. Villa aren’t scoring and Chelsea running riot is an obvious worry given Villa’s performances this season but they are solid at the back on Wednesday and with this being the first game back for Chelsea, I can see a cagey start and a low scoring game. Chelsea to win 1-0 or 2-0 perhaps, but I like this unders price at 2.46.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.46 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQavlche
MATCH STATS
- Aston Villa have lost nine of their last 10 Premier League games against Chelsea, winning the other at Villa Park in March 2014.
- Chelsea have won their last five league games against Aston Villa, their best winning run against the Villans.
- Aston Villa have taken just two points from their last 63 available against ‘big six’ Premier League sides, (W0 D2 L19), drawing with Man City in November 2015, and with Man Utd this season.
- Aston Villa have won on six of the seven days of the week in the Premier League this season, with the only exception being Sunday. A win here will see them become just the second team in top-flight history to win a match on all seven days of the week within a season, after Tottenham in 1986-87.
- After a run of eight straight wins, Chelsea lost their last Premier League game against a side in the relegation zone, going down 1-3 at Everton in December. They’ve not lost consecutive such games since January 2011 (vs Birmingham and Wolves).
- Chelsea haven’t won any of their four away Premier League games in 2020 (D3 L1), having won seven of their previous nine on the road (L2). They last had a longer winless run away from home between September-December 2015 (7 games).
- As a player, Chelsea manager Frank Lampard won just four of his 16 Premier League visits to Villa Park (D8 L4). His last appearance there with Chelsea saw him score twice in a 2-1 victory to become the Blues’ all-time leading goalscorer.
- Chelsea striker Olivier Giroud has scored in his last six games against Aston Villa in all competitions, netting eight goals; all appearances came while he was at Arsenal between 2013 and 2016.
- Aston Villa keeper Pepe Reina has kept a clean sheet in 40% of his Premier League appearances against Chelsea (6/15). Of the 16 keepers to have faced the Blues at least 15 times in the competition, only Nigel Martyn has a better ratio against them (42% – 8/19).
- Willian has scored in each of his last two games in all competitions for Chelsea, netting as many goals as he’d scored in his previous 23 for the Blues (2).
EVERTON V LIVERPOOL
7pm Unfortunately for Liverpool, Arsenal were unable to beat City on Wednesday so they won’t be winning the title against their bitter rivals tonight! They are so far clear at the top of the Premier League table though, it won’t bother them at what stage they confirm the title – they know it’s coming. The behind closed doors is a big element here given we always have an excellent atmosphere for a Merseyside Derby, and that can only favour Liverpool. The Reds have only conceded 9 times away from home this season which is remarkable, even the xG of close to 16 is reasonably solid.
There’s no doubt that Everton have improved under Carlo Ancelotti and if he stays for a season or two, we could easily see Everton become a Europa League side once again. Liverpool have been superb this season though, and even though Everton have improved I still can’t see them handling this Liverpool side. They play excellent football and as we seen with City on Wednesday, when the top teams settle down to pass the ball around the other sides can’t touch them. Liverpool have the class to do that here and they should win. They are worth backing at 1.64.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Liverpool to beat Everton at 1.64 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQevelvp
MATCH STATS
- Everton are winless in 18 Premier League meetings with Liverpool (D10 L8) since a 2-0 win back in October 2010 at Goodison Park.
- Six of the last seven Premier League meetings between Everton and Liverpool at Goodison Park have ended as draws, with Liverpool winning the other 1-0 in December 2016.
- Everton have failed to score in their last three home league games against Liverpool, managing just 19 shots across those games. The Toffees last failed to score in four consecutive home games against their rivals back in April 1978 (six in a row).
- In all competitions, Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 21 games against Everton – only against Aston Villa (22 between 1981-1992) have they had a longer such run against an opponent.
- Liverpool’s only previous competitive match played in June was their Champions League final victory over Spurs last season. Meanwhile, this will be Everton’s first ever competitive match in the month.
- Everton are winless in three Premier League games (D1 L2), though they are unbeaten in seven at Goodison Park (W4 D3) since losing 0-2 against Norwich in November.
- Liverpool have been behind at some point in each of their last three Premier League games, after a run of 15 straight games without trailing. The Reds last went behind in four consecutive league games between May-August 2016.
- Liverpool’s Divock Origi has scored five goals in seven appearances against Everton in all competitions, netting a brace in the reverse Premier League fixture at Anfield. The last Reds player to score more than once in both Merseyside league derbies in a season was Dick Forshaw in 1925-26 (hat-trick at Anfield, two at Goodison).
- Michael Keane and Richarlison scored Everton’s goals in their 2-5 defeat against Liverpool in the reverse fixture. The last Everton player to score home and away against Liverpool in the same league season was Andrei Kanchelskis in 1995-96.
- Just two of Liverpool forward Mohamed Salah’s 16 Premier League goals this season have come in away games (12.5%). Of the 204 occasions of a player netting 15+ Premier League goals in a full campaign, the only player with a lower ratio of goals scored on the road was Cristiano Ronaldo in 2008-09 (11.1% – 2/18).
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