THE STRIKER: previews a selection of Premier League games on Sunday – the final day of the season. ARSENAL v WATFORD, CHELSEA v WOLVES, LEICESTER v MANCHESTER UNITED and WEST HAM v ASTON VILLA – all matches previewed with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.

The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!

Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.

ARSENAL V WATFORD

4pm What an excellent final day of the Premier League! We have some massive games at the bottom of the table along with a huge game between Leicester and Manchester United in the race for a Top Four finish. We start with Arsenal hosting Watford in a must ‘get a result’ game for Watford. They will stay up with a draw if Aston Villa lose against West Ham, but realistically they need to win and hope Villa lose. A draw might not be good enough.

The good news for Watford is that this game is meaningless for Arsenal as they focus on the FA Cup Final next weekend. Of course their pride is at stake and their class might get them through, but it will be Watford trying to force it. As we seen with Chelsea against Liverpool midweek, this doesn’t necessarily mean a good result for Watford! Arsenal were very poor against Aston Villa midweek, and that’s why Watford find themselves in this position. Looking at the odds, I have to have a small lay of Arsenal at 2.0. I fully expect a closer game than those odds suggest as Arsenal were so poor against Aston Villa. Watford have been poor this season though, and although their xG numbers put them higher in the table, stakes should be kept to a minimum.

The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Arsenal at 2.0 with BETDAQ Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQarswat

MATCH STATS

  • Arsenal have won five of their six Premier League home games against Watford (L1), keeping a clean sheet in each victory.
  • In their 13 Premier League meetings with Arsenal, Watford have only scored the first goal of the game on one occasion, doing so in their 2-1 victory at the Emirates in January 2017.
  • Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 14 final day Premier League games (W12 D2), winning the last eight in a row. Arsenal haven’t lost their final league game when being played at home since a 1-3 defeat to Spurs in 1992-93, winning 10 in a row on home soil since.
  • Watford haven’t won their final league game of a season (excluding play-offs) since 2011-12 against Middlesbrough (D2 L5 since). In the Premier League, Watford have won just one of their six closing weekend matches (D2 L3), beating Coventry 1-0 in 1999-00.
  • Arsenal lost their last match against a side in the relegation zone, 0-1 vs Aston Villa on Tuesday night. They’ve not lost consecutive such matches in the top-flight since 1983 (vs Birmingham in March and vs Leicester in November). However, they’ve not lost twice in a row against sides in the drop zone when the games have been played back-to-back.
  • Watford have conceded at least once in each of their last nine Premier League games – no side is on a longer current run without a clean sheet in the competition.
  • Watford are winless in seven Premier League away games (D1 L6), losing each of the last five in a row. The Hornets’ last four Premier League away wins have been against sides who were in the bottom four of the table.
  • After a run of three straight home defeats in December, Arsenal are unbeaten in their last eight Premier League games at the Emirates Stadium (W6 D2), with the Gunners netting 18 goals and conceding just five in that run.
  • Arsenal have been issued with 83 yellow cards in the Premier League this season, their most in a single campaign in the competition. Indeed, the Gunners have more yellows (83) and more red cards (5) than any other Premier League side this season, while Watford have committed the most fouls (469).
  • Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored four goals in his four Premier League games against Watford, though three of these strikes have come at Vicarage Road.

CHELSEA V WOLVES

4pm All eyes will be on Leicester v Manchester United but this is a massive game too. A win would give Chelsea a Top Four finish, but Wolves are pushing for a Europa League spot too and start the final day in 6th, just one point ahead of Spurs. What a fixture. Sky Sports noted that we seen the good and bad sides of Chelsea on Wednesday night against Liverpool and that was very true. Excellent going forward but very poor at the back. They just can’t seem to deal with corners and crosses into the box.

That is surely an area that Wolves will focus on here, and they have been very good at grinding out results this season. Chelsea could blow them away going forward if they score early, but I suspect we’ll have a cagey start in such a big game. On balance I like the Chelsea lay here at 1.87 for very similar reasons as the Arsenal lay. I just can’t see the game reflecting the odds on Chelsea. Wolves have beaten the big sides this season and unlike a lot of teams today, they have something to play for too. The value option is the Chelsea lay in my view, with stakes small because it isn’t exactly a banker bet.

The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Chelsea at 1.87 with BETDAQ Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQchewol

MATCH STATS

  • Chelsea are unbeaten in all five of their Premier League home games against Wolves (W4 D1), last losing against them in the top-flight at Stamford Bridge in March 1979 (1-2).
  • Since returning to the Premier League in 2018, Wolves have scored five goals in three Premier League games against Chelsea – more than they’d netted against the Blues in their first eight such games against them (4).
  • When finishing the season at home, Chelsea haven’t lost their final Premier League match since 2001-02 (1-3 vs Aston Villa), winning seven and drawing three since.
  • Wolves have lost four of their five closing day matches in the Premier League, winning the other against Sunderland in 2009-10.
  • Chelsea need just a draw from this game to guarantee a top four finish and Champions League football next season. However, the Blues have lost two of their last three Premier League games (W1), as many defeats as in their previous 11 (W6 D3).
  • Victory for Wolves will guarantee them a sixth place finish this season, their highest top-flight finish since the 1979-80 campaign (6th).
  • Chelsea have conceded 54 Premier League goals this term, only in 1994/95 and 1996/97 have they conceded more in a single campaign in the competition (55 goals conceded on each occasion); indeed, Chelsea have conceded 46% of the shots on target they have faced this season (54/117), the highest ratio in the division.
  • Wolves could become the fourth different side to go through an entire Premier League campaign without any English goalscorers (excluding own goals), after Fulham (2001-02 and 2005-06), Arsenal (2006-07) and Stoke (2015-16). Of those other clubs, only Arsenal in 2006-07 (13) had more different goalscorers than Wolves this season (12).
  • Chelsea striker Tammy Abraham has scored in all three of his league appearances against Wolves, netting six goals in total, including a hat-trick in the Blues’ 5-2 win in the reverse fixture.
  • Raúl Jiménez’s 17 Premier League goals this season have been worth 19 points to Wolves, more than any other player in the competition; indeed, the Mexican has netted eight match-winning goals this campaign, another divisional high.

LEICESTER V MANCHESTER UNITED

4pm What a final day fixture, It’s all to play for! Leicester could have a Top Four finish with a draw here and a Chelsea loss but they won’t be thinking that. Realistically they need to win, and while that is the right mindset to have – it probably helps Manchester United as they’ll be able to play counter attacking football with their excellent front three. United have been poor in their last two fixtures though, and even allowing for West Ham being in good form, it was disappointing that they couldn’t win at Old Trafford on Wednesday.

Having said that, Leicester only find themselves in this position going into the final day because they have been very poor since lockdown. Other than smooth wins against Sheffield United and Crystal Palace (who have been woeful) they have been very poor and while United should win here, they are just too short at 2.3. United have looked tired in their last two games and I expect a drama filled game with plenty of mistakes. Both Teams To Score is my selection at 1.74, United can score against this Leicester side but with the amount of mistakes we’ve seen from United lately it’s hard to not see Leicester scoring. This should be an excellent game with a lot of action and drama! Ideal for the final day.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.74 with BETDAQ Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQleimun

MATCH STATS

  • Leicester have won just one of their 13 Premier League home games against Manchester United (D4 L8), beating them 5-3 in September 2014.
  • Man Utd are unbeaten in their last 10 Premier League matches against Leicester (W7 D3). Only against Aston Villa (15) are they enjoying a longer ongoing unbeaten run among current Premier League sides.
  • Manchester United have opened the scoring within the opening 10 minutes in each of their last three Premier League matches against Leicester.
  • Leicester have lost just one of their last 12 final league games of the season (W7 D4, excluding play-offs), losing 4-5 at Spurs in 2017-18.
  • Manchester United lost their final league game in 2018-19, going down 0-2 at home to Cardiff. They’ve not lost consecutive closing day games since a run of three between 1982-83 and 1984-85.
  • A win would guarantee Leicester qualify for next season’s Champions League for only the second time, while a draw or better for Man Utd would cement their position in the top four.
  • Leicester are averaging just 1.1 points-per-game in the Premier League since the restart (9 points from 8 games), compared to 1.8 points-per-game this season before the enforced break (53 points from 29 games).
  • Should he start, Harry Maguire would become the first Man Utd outfield player since Gary Pallister in 1994-95 to start every game in a Premier League campaign for the Red Devils.
  • Man Utd’s Juan Mata has been involved in six goals in his last six Premier League games against Leicester (4 goals, 2 assists), scoring three in his last two against them at the King Power Stadium.
  • Leicester’s Jamie Vardy has 23 Premier League goals this season, just one short of his best ever tally in a top-flight campaign (24 in 2015-16). Vardy has also scored four goals in five appearances on the final day of Premier League campaigns.

WEST HAM V ASTON VILLA

4pm I finish my preview with my strongest bet of the day. I really can’t have Villa at 2.32 to beat West Ham here. I take on board that West Ham have nothing to play for and that Villa are fighting to stay up, but they just shouldn’t be as short as 2.32 to win. West Ham have finished the season in excellent form and their xG numbers have been very impressive. Villa managed to grind out a home win against Arsenal midweek to put themselves in this position, but that shouldn’t make them 2.32 here.

West Ham created more in their 1-1 draw with Manchester United at Old Trafford in an important game for United but meant nothing to the Hammers, and prior to that their xG numbers have been: 0.97, 4.0, 2.14, 2.33 and 2.38. They have been creating chances for fun and they can outscore this Villa side. Arsenal didn’t create anything against them midweek, West Ham will be a step up in this form and the Villa lay is a very confident bet.

The Striker Says:
Four points lay (liability) Aston Villa at 2.32 with BETDAQ Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQwhuast

MATCH STATS

  • West Ham are unbeaten in their last four home league games against Aston Villa (W2 D2), with the Hammers keeping a clean sheet each time.
  • Aston Villa have won just one of their last seven Premier League meetings with West Ham (D4 L2), winning 1-0 at Villa Park in May 2015.
  • Aston Villa have failed to score in five of their last seven Premier League meetings with West Ham, though three of those five games have finished 0-0.
  • West Ham have won their final Premier League game in each of the last three seasons – it’s their best ever winning run on the season’s final matchday in the competition.
  • Aston Villa haven’t won their final league match in any of the last eight seasons (excluding play-offs), with their last victory on the final day coming against Liverpool in 2010-11 (D2 L6).
  • Since the Premier League resumed in June, West Ham have earned 11 points from their eight games (W3 D2 L3); this is as many as they had accrued across the 15 such matches directly before the season was temporarily suspended in March (W3 D2 L10).
  • Since David Moyes took charge of his first Premier League game back at West Ham in January, only Man City (7) have scored 3+ goals in more different Premier League games than the Hammers (6).
  • Aston Villa have won two of their last three Premier League games (D1), as many as they had in their previous 15 in the competition (W2 D3 L10).
  • Aston Villa are looking to avoid being the 10th side to fail to record a clean sheet on the road in a Premier League campaign. For the Villans, it would be the second occasion that they’ve not had a shutout away from home in a single season in the competition (also, 2010/11).
  • Aston Villa’s Trézéguet has scored three goals in his last three Premier League games, as many as he had in his previous 30 in the competition.

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