SUNDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Sunday’s final day in the Premier League with all matches kicking off at 4.30pm. All previewed with FACTMAN stats and recommended BETDAQ bets.
ARSENAL V WOLVES
4.30pm After a brilliant 2022/23 season, it’s the final day of the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! All ten fixtures kick off at the same time on Sunday, and we have a hectic afternoon ahead. With the title and the Top Four spots already decided, all the drama is going to be at the bottom of the table. All eyes will be on Everton Leicester and Leeds, but we start with Arsenal hosting Wolves. Arsenal have been outplayed in their last two games against Brighton and Nottingham Forest, and they look like a side who have found it hard to deal with the title race being over. Gary Neville said it well on Sky Sports – when you’ve had an intense battle and the race is lost, you can switch off and lose a few games. Back in front of their own fans here on the final day though, Arsenal are trading the shortest price of the day to win at 1.4. Wolves are trading 8.4 and the draw is 5.4 at the time of writing. Although Wolves have been very poor away from home this season, I wouldn’t be rushing to back Arsenal here at 1.4. I would expect a better performance from them than we have saw over their last two games, but it’s hard to make the case that they should be much shorter than 1.4.
Wolves have finished the season fairly strongly considering they weren’t miles away from a relegation battle at points throughout the season. Wolves have had issues away from home all season – they’ve only managed 11 points from 18 away games this season and that puts them in the bottom three on the away form table. The only two sides with worse records are Leeds and Nottingham Forest. I don’t see much value in the match odds market, so we’re going to have to look around the side markets for some value. Wolves haven’t been creating a lot to finish the season – their last four xG figures have been 1.38 v Everton, 0.40 v Manchester United, 0.66 v Aston Villa and 0.56 v Brighton. Those low figures coupled with the fact that Wolves have been poor away from home, I feel Arsenal can keep a clean sheet. Both Teams Not To Score is 2.14 and that’s definitely worth a bet at the odds. I know both sides have nothing to play for however, so I’m keen to keep stakes small with a bet like this on the final day.
The Striker Says:
One point win Both Teams Not To Score at 2.14 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ArsWol
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Arsenal have won their last three Premier League games against Wolves, having won just two of their previous eight against them (D3 L3).
● Wolves have only lost one of their last five Premier League away games against Arsenal (W1 D3), though it was in this exact fixture last season (1-2).
● Arsenal have won their final league game in each of the last 11 seasons and are unbeaten in their last 17 on the closing day (W15 D2) since a 2-1 loss at Birmingham City in 2004-05. The Gunners have won their last 13 final day matches when finishing the season at home, since losing 3-1 to Spurs in 1992-93.
● Wolves have lost their final league match in each of the last five seasons. Indeed, they’ve lost their final match in seven of their eight Premier League campaigns, with the exception being a 2-1 win against Sunderland in 2009-10.
● Arsenal have won their final match of the season more often than any other Premier League side (21), while the Gunners also have the highest win rate on the final day than anyone else in the competition (70%).
● Arsenal have won 25 Premier League games this season, only winning more in their title winning campaigns of 2001-02 and 2003-04 (both 26). However, the Gunners have lost and failed to score in their last two games, having only failed to find the net in two of their first 35 this term.
● Wolves are winless in their last seven Premier League away games (D2 L5), losing the last three by an aggregate score of 10-1. They’ve not lost four in a row on the road in the top-flight since a run of six between September-December 2011.
● Wolves are the lowest scoring side in the Premier League this season with 31 goals. If they fail to score in this game it will be their lowest ever tally in a Premier League campaign, while the last time the lowest goalscorers in a single season weren’t relegated was 2017-18 (Huddersfield Town).
● Aaron Ramsdale, Gabriel Magalhães, Ben White and Bukayo Saka have all played in all 37 of Arsenal’s Premier League games so far this season. The last time the Gunners had as many as four players play every one of their league games in a single campaign was in 1990-91 (David Seaman, Lee Dixon, Nigel Winterburn, Steve Bould).
● In what will potentially be his final game as an Arsenal player, Granit Xhaka could make his 225th Premier League appearance, level with Kolo Touré as the joint-13th most for the Gunners. This is already his best league season with Arsenal in terms of goals (5) and joint-best for assists (7, level with 2017-18).
ASTON VILLA V BRIGHTON
4.30pm We should have an entertaining game here as Aston Villa host Brighton. It’s been a brilliant week for Brighton who confirmed their place in the Europa League next season with a 1-1 draw at home against Manchester City on Wednesday night. That spot in Europe is fully deserved because they have been playing some top class football for a while now. It’s hard to believe that they were in the relegation battle in 2020/21. To be fair Brighton should have never been close to that relegation battle because they were creating so many chances but failing to take them. That has changed this season – their average xG created has been 2.1, and their actual average goals scored works out at 1.9. They have been reasonably solid at the back too, their average xG conceded is 1.4 – that’s an area to work on heading into next season if they are looking to improve. Aston Villa are just behind Brighton in the table and are currently in the Europa Conference League spot heading into the final day. European football would be a huge achievement for Villa, but they have a fight on their hands. Spurs are only one point behind them and Brentford are two points behind.
It’s been an incredible turnaround for Villa since Unai Emery took over. They were closer to a relegation battle than a European finish when he arrived! When he took the job, I thought it was a massive step down from Villarreal in La Liga but obviously he knew what he was doing. Villa have played very good football under Emery and created more chances than ever before. This should be an entertaining game between two sides enjoyable to watch, and Villa will be hoping to benefit from the fact that Brighton have nothing to play for here. Villa can’t catch them, and Brighton can’t catch Liverpool. Brighton usually play an open and entertaining game, so imagine what they’ll do playing as free spirits! I feel this game screams goals, and the 1.59 looks cracking value in what should be a very open game.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.59 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AstBri
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Aston Villa have lost just one of their seven Premier League matches against Brighton (W4 D2), going down 2-1 at home in November 2020.
● Brighton have lost their last three Premier League games against Aston Villa, having lost just one of their previous seven against them in league competition. They’ve never lost four in a row against the Villans before.
● Aston Villa have won their final game in just one of their last eight Premier League campaigns (D2 L5), beating Chelsea 2-1 in 2020-21. Indeed, no team has lost their final game of the season more often than Aston Villa in the competition (14, level with Everton).
● Brighton have lost their final league game in three of their five Premier League campaigns, winning the other two. Before their promotion to the division, they’d only lost their last league game in three of the previous 19 seasons (W7 D9).
● Victory for Aston Villa will see them qualify for at least the Europa Conference League play-off stage next season, their first appearance in European competition since the 2010-11 Europa League qualifying rounds.
● Aston Villa have won their last six Premier League home games, scoring 12 goals and conceding just once. They last won seven in a row in the competition at Villa Park between December 1992 and February 1993.
● Brighton have only failed to score in one of their 18 Premier League away games this season, going down 2-0 against Brentford in October. They’ve found the net in each of their last 13, their longest scoring streak on the road in league competition since a run of 16 between August 2009 and February 2010 in League One.
● Jacob Ramsey turns 22 on the day of this game; the last Aston Villa player to score a Premier League goal on their birthday was Julian Joachim in September 1997, while no player in the division overall has scored on their birthday in the final match of the season before.
● Ollie Watkins has scored 14 Premier League goals this season, with Christian Benteke the last Aston Villa player to net more in a single campaign (19 in 2012-13).
● Brighton’s Danny Welbeck has been involved in five goals in his last four Premier League appearances on matchday 38 (2 goals, 3 assists), scoring in each of his last two such games with Watford (v Arsenal 2019- 20) and Brighton (last season v West Ham).
BRENTFORD V MANCHESTER CITY
4.30pm This could be another very entertaining game as Brentford host Manchester City. As I mentioned above, Brentford still have something to play for here. They are two points behind Aston Villa in the race for that seventh place and a Europa Conference League spot. They have to win here and hope Aston Villa and Spurs lose today. While the Europa Conference League is a disappointing season for Spurs, it would be a great achievement for Villa and Brentford so let’s plenty to play for! From a Manchester City point of view, they are done with the Premier League now. They’ve got the trophy, and all focus is now on the FA Cup Final and then the Champions League Final in their bid for a famous treble. It would be a superb achievement, and I don’t expect Guardiola to risk anyone carrying a knock here, or you’d expect some of his star players to be subbed off early too. City played earlier in the week away from home and drew 1-1 with Brighton – only two goals but it was actually a very entertaining game, it could have been 3-3!
With City’s likely approach to this game and changes expected, we have a bigger than usual Man City price! They are still odds on, but not heavily odds on and they could even start 2.0+ based on the team news. They are trading 1.89 at the time of writing with Brentford 4.2 and the draw is 4.1. I’m happy to stay away from the match odds here – you’d expect to see City outclass Brentford but who knows what XI we’ll get and obviously Brentford will be more up for this game than City. This game is basically just ticking a box for most of the City players unless they are pushing for a place in the starting XI for the two Finals. Unfortunately we didn’t land our Over 2.5 goals bet between Brighton and City during the week, but the xG figures show how unlucky we were – we really should have had more goals. City will play an open game here again, and so will Brentford to be honest. I like the Overs again, this time at 1.64.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.64 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BreMan
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Following their 2-1 win at the Etihad in November, Brentford are looking to complete their second ever league double over Man City. They previously did so in 1937-38, but this is just the third campaign in which they’ve met since then.
● Man City have won five of their six Premier League away games against London sides this season, with the exception being a 1-0 loss at Spurs. Only one team has ever won six away games in the capital in a single campaign in English league history – Liverpool in 1988-89.
● Only two teams have ever done the Premier League double over Manchester City in a season where they were crowned champions, with both of them being London clubs – Chelsea in 2013-14 and Tottenham last season.
● Brentford have alternated between victory (2) and defeat (2) in their last four final league matches of a season, losing 2-1 at home to Leeds last term.
● Man City have won their final league game in eight of the last nine seasons, including each of the last six in a row. Their last such defeat was at home to Norwich in the 2012-13 campaign (2-3).
● This will be Manchester City’s 1,000th Premier League game, the 10th team to reach the landmark. Six of the previous nine teams won their milestone game (Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Manchester United, Tottenham and West Ham) with the other three losing (Chelsea, Everton and Newcastle).
● Brentford have won four of their last five Premier League games (L1), more than they had in their previous 13 combined (W3 D6 L4). The Bees have also lost just one of their last 14 home league games (W7 D6).
● Man City’s Kevin De Bruyne has been involved in nine goals in his last six final day appearances in the Premier League, scoring three and assisting six. Overall, only Nolberto Solano (7) has more assists on the final day in Premier League history than the Belgian.
● Bryan Mbeumo has been involved in six goals in his last six Premier League games (4 goals, 2 assists), and is looking to score in three consecutive league games for Brentford for the first time since December 2019 (a run of four).
● Erling Haaland has scored five of Manchester City’s nine Premier League goals in London this season, the joint most for a Man City player in a single campaign (Sergio Agüero in 2015-16 and Edin Dzeko in 2011-12 also five).
CHELSEA V NEWCASTLE
4.30pm Obviously all eyes are on the relegation battle today, but this is an interesting clash as Chelsea host Newcastle. Chelsea fans are wishing this season away at the moment – it has been a total disaster, and they’ll be glad to see the back of it. One wonders what the atmosphere will be like here – usually sides do a lap after the game, I’d assume there won’t be much love. Obviously the manager(s) get the blame, but at some point the finger has to point to the players – they haven’t been good enough under three managers this season. There needs to be a lot of change during the summer, and Mauricio Pochettino has a lot of work to do. We see the manager and the players; but the real problem at Chelsea in my opinion is the ownership now. Bad decision off the pitch lead to problems on the pitch – however as Erik ten Hag has shown at Manchester United a good manager can set the tempo of the club despite the owners. That is Pochettino’s job for next season. Surely he can do better than a bottom half finish anyway!
It’s a sign of the times that Newcastle come to Chelsea and they are the favourites. They have had an excellent season, and they fully deserve their spot in the Top Four. The atmosphere next season with them in the Champions League will be fantastic; but also it will attract a higher quality player to the club as well. When the owners took over they were in the relegation zone and looked like going down – it’s hard to believe they have reached the Top Four so soon. Money matters in football, but this rapid success was a surprise – the general feeling was finish mid-table and then attempt for a Europa League or Europa Conference League spot next season! Chelsea have been all over the place lately, and they were an embarrassment at Old Trafford on Thursday night. I’m keeping stakes small because neither side have anything to play for here, but Newcastle look the best bet at 2.48. They have been levels above Chelsea this season, and it looks like the squad just haven’t been playing for Lampard either.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Newcastle to beat Chelsea at 2.48 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CheNew
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Chelsea have lost just one of their 27 Premier League home games against Newcastle (W20 D6), winning the last nine in a row since a 2-0 loss in May 2012.
● Following their 1-0 win at St James’ Park in November, Newcastle are looking to complete their first league double over Chelsea since 1986-87.
● Newcastle have won four and drawn two of their six Premier League games in London this season. They last remained unbeaten in the capital in a single top-flight campaign in 1996-97 (W2 D3).
● When finishing a Premier League season at home, Chelsea are unbeaten in their last 12 final day matches (W9 D3), since a 3-1 loss against Aston Villa in 2001-02.
● Newcastle have won their final league match in seven of the last eight seasons, with the exception being a 3-1 home loss to Liverpool in 2019-20.
● Chelsea are winless in their last seven home games in all competitions (D3 L4), their longest since a run of 10 between November 1987 and April 1988. The Blues have also failed to score in eight home games in all competitions this season, last failing in more in 1980-81 (9).
● Newcastle United have kept 14 Premier League clean sheets this season, only ever keeping more in 1993- 94 and 2011-12 (both 15). Nick Pope has been in goal for all 14 shutouts, with Tim Krul the only Magpies keeper to record more in a season (15 in 2011-12).
● Kieran Trippier has created 110 chances for his teammates in the Premier League this season – it’s the most on record (since 2003-04) for a Newcastle player in the competition, and the second most by a defender after Leighton Baines in 2012-13 (116).
● Kai Havertz (5) and Raheem Sterling (4) are the only two players to score more than once for Chelsea in the Premier League at Stamford Bridge this season, with 10 players netting exactly one home goal for the Blues this term.
● Callum Wilson has scored four Premier League goals in London this season – the only Newcastle player to score more in a single campaign is Peter Beardsley, who netted six in 1993-94.
CRYSTAL PALACE V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
4.30pm Nottingham Forest have the luxury of heading into the final day safe from relegation as they travel to take on Crystal Palace. Nottingham Forest spent most of the season odds on to go down, and that was intense pressure after all their summer signings and wage bill. Going back down to the Championship could have caused huge problems. Everything worked out in the end, but they have a lot of work to do during the summer. They will be delighted to not be in the relegation battle given the final game is away from home – they have been woeful away from home this season with just seven points from 18 games. That’s the worst away record in the Premier League. I suppose what it also highlights is how important home form is when you’re in a relegation battle. Southampton and Leicester have been the worst two sides at home this season, and they start the day in the bottom three – Everton aren’t far away either! Crystal Palace start the day in 11th, and the only thing they have to play for here is that a win would see them finish ahead of Chelsea no matter the Chelsea result. Not sure how important that is to them, but here we are.
The home side have been through a manager this season with Patrick Vieira getting sacked after a terrible run of form. To be honest the xG figures on Palace this season were terrible, but they did have a performance boost when Roy Hodgson came back so you can see the quality is there in the squad. Who they bring in as manager in the summer will be very important. Ironically Vieira had two chances to step back into Premier League management since Palace, if you believe the papers he could have taken over at Leeds or Everton. Palace come into the game as the odds on favourites, possibly understandable given the Forest away record but you have to say Forest have finished the season strongly. I know Chelsea have been so poor, but they finished that game away from home with a higher xG figure than they conceded. I feel this one will be closer than odds of 1.75 suggest on Palace, and I’m happy with a lay from a value point of view.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Crystal Palace to beat Nottingham Forest at 1.75 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CryNot
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Crystal Palace have won just one of their last nine home league games against Nottingham Forest (D4 L4). This is the first time they’re hosting them since September 2012 (1-1), and the first time in the Premier League since April 1995 (1-2).
● Nottingham Forest are unbeaten in their last seven top-flight meetings with Crystal Palace, since a 1-0 home loss in February 1991. They’ve won each of the last three against the Eagles in the Premier League, winning both fixtures in 1994-95, and 1-0 at the City Ground this season.
● Crystal Palace have never lost their final league match of the season in the top-flight when finishing the campaign with a home game, winning seven and drawing three of their 10 such matches.
● This is the first time Nottingham Forest are finishing a league campaign away to a London side since 2010- 11, when they beat Crystal Palace 3-0 at Selhurst Park in the Championship.
● Crystal Palace have lost just one of their last nine Premier League home games (W3 D5), and are unbeaten in all four since Roy Hodgson’s return (W3 D1). Only one of their five home defeats this season has come to a side from outside London (0-1 v Man City in March).
● Just 18.9% of Nottingham Forest’s Premier League points have come in away games this season (7/37), the lowest ratio across a single campaign since 2016-17 (Hull 17.6%, Burnley 17.5%).
● After winning just three of their first 17 Premier League games following the World Cup break (D5 L9), Nottingham Forest have won three of their last five (D1 L1), with their victory against Arsenal last time out securing their Premier League status for another season.
● Only Bournemouth (15) have conceded more headed goals than Crystal Palace (14) in the Premier League this season, with the Eagles only shipping more in a single campaign in 1994-95 (16).
● Eberechi Eze has been involved in 14 goals in 37 Premier League games this season (10 goals, 4 assists), more than any other Crystal Palace player. Half of these have come in his last eight appearances (6 goals, 1 assist).
● Taiwo Awoniyi has scored in seven different Premier League games this season, putting Nottingham Forest 1-0 ahead every time. He could become the first Forest player to score in four consecutive top-flight appearances since Stan Collymore, who scored in six in a row in March/April 1995.
EVERTON V BOURNEMOUTH
4.30pm We have three massive fixtures coming up with Everton, Leeds and Leicester all in action. Two of those three will go down and you’d have to say Everton have the “easiest” fixture being at home to Bournemouth here. Leeds and Leicester have winnable games too as Spurs have been so poor this season and obviously West Ham have a Europa Conference League Final coming up. Everton start the day sitting outside the bottom three, and they have a two point cushion over Leicester and Leeds. They are in a pretty strong position, however Leicester have a better goal difference than them so they can’t approach this fixture with the mindset of a draw will be enough. Whatever happens, we’re going to have high drama. Everton come into this game trading as the heavy odds on favourites at 1.53 with Bournemouth 7.2 and the draw is 4.8. That’s very much a “need to win” price on Everton in my opinion, and I wouldn’t be rushing them back them as short as that! They have been decent at home under Sean Dyche, but it’s hard to make a strong argument that they should be shorter, thus making 1.53 good value.
The good news for Everton fans is that Bournemouth have lost their last three games. It looks like they have switched off a little since confirming the fact that they were saying up. You can’t blame the players and staff; in fairness to them they were odds on to go down for most of the season. Indeed, they were pretty much the favourites to go down from everyone. They lost Scott Parker early in the season and that looked a shock decision so early, especially considering they had only played Aston Villa, Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool! In hindsight it was the right decision, Parker gave an interview saying they weren’t up to Premier League standard and you just can’t say that out loud to the media. Everton are in prime position to cash in if Bournemouth have eased off, but I’m going to stay away from the match odds market here – that Everton price is very unappealing. Bournemouth only created an xG of 0.28 away to Crystal Palace before losing 1-0 to Manchester United last weekend – Everton can keep a clean sheet here and Both Teams Not To Score looks worth backing at 2.02.
The Striker Says:
One point win Both Teams Not To Score at 2.02 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EveBou
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Having won their first four Premier League home games against Bournemouth, Everton lost their last such meeting with the Cherries, going down 3-1 on the final day of the 2019-20 season.
● Bournemouth have won their last three Premier League games against Everton, netting exactly three goals each time. They had only won two of their first eight against them in the competition (D2 L4).
● Everton have lost their final league match in five of the last six seasons (D1), conceding at least three goals in each defeat. Their last two have seen them lose 5-0 at Man City and 5-1 at Arsenal.
● Bournemouth have alternated between victory (3) and defeat (2) in their final league match in each of the last five seasons. They beat Millwall 1-0 last season, and also beat Everton 3-1 in their last such game in the Premier League in 2019-20.
● Everton are winless in their last four Premier League home games (D1 L3), losing the last three in a row and conceding 10 goals in the process. The Toffees had won three of their first four home games under Sean Dyche previously (L1).
● Everton have picked up 18 points in their 17 Premier League games under Sean Dyche (1.1 per game), compared to 15 points in 20 games under Frank Lampard this season (0.8 per game).
● None of Bournemouth’s last 15 Premier League games have been drawn (W7 L8). However, after winning five of their seven games in April, the Cherries have lost all three so far in May.
● Bournemouth have won five Premier League away games this season – only in their maiden campaign of 2015-16 have they ever won more on the road (6).
● Bournemouth have conceded 70 Premier League goals this season, yet are safe from relegation and could finish as high as 13th. Before this season, there had been just seven occasions of a team conceding 70+ plus goals and not being relegated from the division, with Bournemouth becoming the first side to do so twice (also in 2018-19).
● Dwight McNeil is Everton’s top Premier League goalscorer this season with seven goals. As it stands, it’s the Toffees’ lowest scoring top scorer in a single campaign since 2001-02 (Duncan Ferguson and Tomasz Radzinski with 6).
LEEDS V TOTTENHAM
4.30pm Leeds host Spurs with their situation looking bleak. They need to win and hope Leicester and Everton both lose. Unlike Leicester, their goal difference is worse than Everton – only by three which isn’t much considering Leeds must win and Everton lose so it gets close anyway but Leeds are very unlikely to stay up. Leicester have a much better goal difference, and not only that – Everton and Leicester both have easier fixtures too. For Leicester, West Ham have the Europa Conference League Final so they will hardly be fully focused on that game. The only positive for Leeds is that they have played much better football at home this season, and most of Spurs poorer performances have come away from home too. Leeds have only managed nine point from their 19 away games, only Nottingham Forest have had a worse away record this season, but the difference between between them at home is eight points. Leeds haven’t been one of the worst three sides at home, but they haven’t been good enough to cope with being that poor away from home. They go into the final day with a chance of staying up though, just a very slim one.
Everton and Leicester are trading as favourites to win their games, but Leeds are the outsiders. We have a very open market, but Spurs are favourites at 2.5 with Leeds 2.84 and the draw is 4.0. Leeds have finished the season very poorly – only two points from their last eight games just when the pressure was on has put them in a terrible position. To be fair though Spurs haven’t been much better – they have only managed seven points from their last eight games, and they are like Chelsea in the sense that they just want the season to finish. They still have a chance of getting a Europa Conference League spot if they win here and Aston Villa fail to win but I’m not sure how much that is worth to them. It would be a good chance to finally win a trophy if they played their first XI in fairness! This game screams goals between two sides who are poor at the back, and Leeds have to win too so it should be entertaining. Over 2.5 goals is a nice position at 1.56.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.56 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeeTot
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Leeds have won just one of their last 10 Premier League games against Spurs (D1 L8), a 3-1 home win in May 2021.
● Tottenham have won two of their last three Premier League away games against Leeds, as many as they had in their previous 15 top-flight visits to Elland Road (D6 L7). They’ve not won consecutive away league games against the Whites since October 1979.
● Leeds have lost their final league match in just one of the last 10 seasons, winning each of the last three in a row. As a top-flight side, Leeds have lost their final league match in just one of their last 15 campaigns (W7 D7), going down 1-0 at Chelsea in their 2003-04 relegation campaign.
● Tottenham have lost their final league game in just one of the last 12 seasons (W9 D2), going down 5-1 at already relegated Newcastle in 2015-16.
● Leeds will be relegated to the Championship if they fail to beat Tottenham, their seventh top-flight relegation overall and second from the Premier League after 2003-04.
● Defeat for Tottenham would ensure no European football for them next season, for the first time since 2009-10. Indeed, it would mean they finish no higher than 8th, which would be their lowest finishing position since 2008-09 (also 8th).
● Leeds have dropped 25 points from winning positions in the Premier League this season, their most ever in a single campaign. They’ve lost five of their last 13 games when opening the scoring (W4 D4), as many as in their previous 36 in the top-flight (W25 D6 L5).
● Spurs striker Harry Kane has scored on the final day of the season in each of the last five Premier League campaigns. Overall, he’s scored nine goals on the closing day, with no player netting more in the competition’s history.
● Harry Kane has scored in 25 different Premier League games for Tottenham this season, the outright most of any player in a 38-game campaign. A goal in this match will see him equal Andrew Cole’s overall record of 26 games scored in, achieved in 1993-94.
● Rodrigo is Leeds’ top scorer in the Premier League this season with 13 goals in 30 games, as many as he’d scored in his previous two campaigns combined (13 in 57 games). He scored twice in the Whites’ 4-3 defeat at Spurs in the reverse fixture, with Brian Deane in 1994-95 the last Leeds player to score home and away league goals against them in a single campaign.
LEICESTER V WEST HAM
4.30pm We finish the relegation battle with Leicester hosting West Ham. As I mention above, the fixture list has worked in Leicester’s favour with West Ham being in the Europa Conference League Final. They have a decent gap between the final day here and that Final, but there’s no way they are going to be focusing on anything else only a major European trophy. Their Premier League season has been very disappointing, but their European journey overshadows that and it’s a case of ticking this box and playing the final game. After competing for the European spots, it’s disappointing to be sitting down in 14th but here we are. Leicester have had a worse season as they start the day in the bottom three, and they are odds on to get relegated too. They have to win here and hope Everton fail to win at home against Bournemouth to escape the bottom three. They are lucky their goal difference is better than Everton’s so Everton have to win – there hasn’t been many positive things about Leicester’s season so they’ll take anything here on the final day! The players just haven’t been good enough this season, and a change in manager didn’t improve their performances at the time either.
The only thing I’d say about Leicester is that they have played well under pressure in the run-in. They have created more chances than ever before, and while they haven’t got the results I feel that’s a reflection that they could have played better all season to be honest. They created xG figures of 2.94 v Wolves, 2.34 v Leeds, 3.06 v Everton, 3.27 v Fulham before they bumped into Liverpool and Newcastle. They have conceded far too many sloppy goals this season, and that has cost them – especially recently against Leeds, Everton and Fulham when they played well enough to win those games. While West Ham’s focus might be elsewhere, the 2.0 is still too short on Leicester in my opinion. Only Southampton have a worse home record this season; once again highlighting how important home form is in a relegation battle. I’m going to stay away from the match odds market here, and once again I like goals. Leicester have to go for it, and they have been so poor at the back too we should have an entertaining game. Over 2.5 goals is the value at 1.71.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.71 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeiWes
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Leicester are looking to complete the Premier League double over West Ham for the fourth time, previously doing so in 2000-01, 2016-17 and 2019-20.
● West Ham have alternated between a loss (2), a win (2) and then a draw (2) in each of their last six Premier League away games against Leicester, drawing 2-2 in this exact fixture last season.
● Leicester have won their final league game in just one of the last seven seasons (D3 L3), though it was a 4- 1 victory at home to Southampton last season.
● West Ham have lost their final league game in just one of the last six seasons (W4 D1), though it was a 3-1 loss away to Brighton last season.
● Failure to win will see Leicester City relegated from the Premier League, just seven years after winning the league title under Claudio Ranieri. They would be the second side to be relegated from the division after winning it, after Blackburn Rovers (champions 1994-95, relegated 1998-99 and 2011-12).
● Leicester have won just two of their last 12 Premier League home games (D2 L8), failing to keep a single clean sheet in those 12 matches. Both of their victories in this run have seen them concede the first goal (4-1 v Tottenham, 2-1 v Wolves).
● West Ham have lost 19 Premier League games this season, with 12 of those coming away from home. They’ve not lost 20 in a single campaign since 2013-14 under Sam Allardyce (20).
● Leicester striker Jamie Vardy has scored seven goals in eight final day appearances in the Premier League – among current Premier League players, only Harry Kane (9) has scored more such goals than Vardy.
● West Ham’s Jarrod Bowen has had a hand in five goals in his five Premier League games against Leicester (3 goals, 2 assists), his most goal involvements against a single top-flight opponent.
● James Maddison has been involved in more Premier League goals than any other Leicester player this season (19 – 10 goals, 9 assists). The only player to reach double figures for both goals and assists in a single campaign for the Foxes is Riyad Mahrez, who did so in both 2015-16 and 2017-18.
MANCHESTER UNITED V FULHAM
4.30pm The final two games involve Manchester United and Liverpool, and things could have been very different if Manchester United didn’t hammer Chelsea on Thursday night! Erik ten Hag was in no mood for drama on the final day however, and United go into the final day with the Top Four finish in the bag. They can relax and enjoy the final day at home, and ten Hag has a chance to rest some players before the FA Cup Final next weekend against Manchester City too. That will be a huge game for United as they try to stop Manchester City winning the treble as they did in 1999. I know Chelsea were all over the place on Thursday night, but United were in superb form. They finished the game with an xG of 4.34 and could have scored even more than four goals. They face a Fulham side here who have finished the season well scoring nine goals in their last three games, and we should get a good game here. Fulham have had an incredible season to finish in the top half – especially considering they would have been one of the favourites to go down after coming up from the Championship. As I have highlighted in recent weeks though, they clearly have had issues at the back this season and they need to work to correct them during the summer.
Their average xG conceded this season is as high as 1.9 which is basically relegation standard. Their actual goals conceded works out at 1.4, and while on paper it’s “only” a difference of 0.5 that difference equals a huge amount of points. The xG table puts them into the bottom five for example, which should be ringing alarm bells for next season. It’s hard to see either side sitting back here with nothing to play for, and we should have a very entertaining game. United come into the game as the short favourites at 1.57 with Fulham 6.4 and the draw is 4.8 at the time of writing. I couldn’t put anyone off United at 1.57, but I would expect a few changes here and with that in mind I’m happy to go into the goals market. Over 2.5 goals is 1.51 and this looks cracking value at only a couple of ticks shorter than the United win. Fulham have been involved in plenty of high scoring games this season, and Overs looks the best bet of the day in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.51 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MunFul
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● After losing back-to-back Premier League games against Fulham in March/December 2009, Manchester United are unbeaten in their last 14 against the Cottagers (W11 D3).
● Fulham have lost 18 of their last 21 away league games against Manchester United, with their only win in that time coming in October 2003 under Chris Coleman (3-1). However, the Cottagers have come away with a draw in two of their last three Premier League visits to Old Trafford.
● Manchester United have won all five of their Premier League games against promoted sides this season, last winning all six in a single campaign back in 2011-12.
● Fulham have only won three of their 53 Premier League away games against sides in the top four of the table, drawing 12 and losing 38. Those wins came at Manchester United (3-1 in October 2003), Tottenham Hotspur (1-0 in March 2013) and Leicester City (2-1 in November 2020).
● Manchester United have only lost their final Premier League game in one of their nine campaigns in which they’ve contested the FA Cup final that season (W6 D2), going down 1-0 at home to West Ham in 2006-07.
● Manchester United have lost their final league game in two of the last four seasons (W2), as many times as they had in their previous 33 top-flight campaigns before this (W23 D8).
● Fulham have lost their final league game in four of the last five seasons (D1), going down 4-0 at Sheffield United in the Championship last season.
● Fulham are already guaranteed their first top half finish in the Premier League since 2011-12 (9th), while their 54 goals this season is the most they’ve ever scored in a single campaign in the competition. They’ve also won 15 games this term, their second-most ever in a top-flight season after 1959-60 (17).
● Fulham have earned more points (7) and scored as many goals (9) in their last three Premier League games as they had in their previous nine combined (6 points, 9 goals).
● Aleksandar Mitrovic has scored 14 Premier League goals this season, including three in his two games since returning from suspension. Only Clint Dempsey (17 in 2011-12) and Dimitar Berbatov (15 in 2012-13) have ever netted more in a single season for Fulham.
SOUTHAMPTON V LIVERPOOL
4.30pm We finish the final day and the 2022/23 season with Southampton hosting Liverpool. The mood here will be pretty bleak with both sides having poor seasons. Southampton just haven’t been up to Premier League standard this season and they have been confirmed as relegated for a few weeks now, while Liverpool missing out on a Top Four finish is a huge blow considering they were title contenders going into the start of the season. Liverpool started the season badly and they were never able to correct things really – I felt Klopp would sort out the issues at the back during the World Cup – he would find a system that worked, but Liverpool were still conceding goals left, right and centre after the World Cup! That highlighted that Klopp at nowhere to go to solve the issues with the squad and I would worry about them again next season if they don’t make the right signings during the summer. They have finished the season very strongly, but they haven’t had a difficult fixture list. I know their fans enjoyed the 7-0 win over Manchester United, but there’s no trophies for that.
Only Arsenal are trading at a shorter price than Liverpool today. The away win is 1.46 at the time of writing with Southampton 7.2 and the draw is 5.5. I have to say I expected to see Liverpool trading under 1.4 and the shortest price of the day. Being at home isn’t an advantage for Southampton – they have the worst home record in the Premier League this season. They have only managed ten points from their 18 home games, and they have actually managed more points away from home this season. Home form is always vital when you get into a relegation battle, and Southampton just didn’t have that this season. I can’t see past a Liverpool win to finish the day here – there’s a huge gulf in class between the sides and Southampton just haven’t been good enough. I’m not going to go crazy with the stakes because both sides have nothing to play for, but the 1.46 is worth taking on a Liverpool win. They have been scoring plenty of goals to finish the season and Southampton have been conceding far too many all season.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Liverpool to beat Southampton at 1.46 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SouLfc
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Southampton have lost 10 of their last 11 Premier League games against Liverpool, with the exception being a 1-0 home win in January 2021.
● Liverpool haven’t conceded more than once in any of their last 13 Premier League games against Southampton, shipping just five goals in total since a 3-2 loss at St Mary’s in March 2016.
● Southampton have lost their final league game in each of the last two seasons, going down 4-1 at Leicester last season and 3-0 at West Ham in 2020-21. They’ve not lost their last game in three consecutive campaigns since doing seven in a row between 1932-33 and 1938-39.
● Liverpool have won their final league game in each of the last six seasons, since a 1-1 draw at West Brom in 2015-16. Their last such defeat was a 6-1 hammering at Stoke in 2014-15.
● The team finishing bottom of the table (Southampton this season) has won their final Premier League game in just one of the last 20 campaigns, with Sheffield United beating Burnley 1-0 in 2020-21.
● Southampton are winless in their last 12 Premier League games (D3 L9). Only twice in their league history have they had a longer run without a win, going 20 games between August-December 1969, and 17 games between November 1988 and March 1989.
● Liverpool have won their last three Premier League away games, as many as they had in their first 15 on the road this season (D4 L8). They’ve scored 11 goals in these three victories, as many as in their previous 13 away league games.
● If he plays for Liverpool in this match, it will be James Milner’s 16th appearance on the closing day of the Premier League season, the joint-most in the competition’s history (Ryan Giggs, Paul Scholes, Jamie Carragher and Gareth Barry also 16).
● Of everyone to score at least 20 combined Premier League goals across the last three seasons, Southampton’s James Ward-Prowse has scored the lowest percentage of them in home games, with just six of his 26 goals in that time coming at St Mary’s Stadium (23%).
● Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has been involved in 17 goals in 14 Premier League games since the start of March (11 goals, 6 assists), more than any other player in the competition in that time.
