PREMIER LEAGUE SUNDAY: The Striker previews Sunday’s Premier League finale with the title still to be decided. All games include a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ARSENAL V EVERTON
4pm The final day of the 2023/24 Premier League has arrived, and we have a full ten game fixture list on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. All the focus will be on the title race heading into the final day with the Top Four and the relegation battle already decided. Even then, they might not be much to shout about – Manchester City take a two point lead into the final day and they are at home to West Ham trading the shortest price of the day! Maybe we’ll have some drama, but for that to happen Arsenal have to beat Everton and that’s where we start the day. The market is expecting a comfortable home win here with Arsenal trading as short as 1.19 at the time of writing with Everton 17.5 and the draw is 9.0. Arsenal have been superb this season but unfortunately for them they are just going to come up short again – I think they can take more credit from this season though. They absolutely blew up on the run-in last season but that hasn’t been the case this time, plus they have improved a lot at the back. Declan Rice has obviously has a massive impact in the centre of the pitch, and they have the best average xG conceded this season of 0.92 heading into the final game.
In one sense, they are a bit like Klopp’s Liverpool at their peak – they don’t have to change much, it’s just so hard to beat Manchester City. Everton have had a drama filled season – despite playing good football they have been involved in the relegation battle after a point deduction. It’s remarkable that Everton and Nottingham Forest were deducted points this season yet Manchester City face 115 charges and continue to win trophies. Everton have finished the season very strongly though – they’ve won four of their last five games, and they’ve only lost once in their last eight. That was 6-0 away to Chelsea, and other than the Merseyside Derby which is always Everton’s “Cup Final” they have had a relatively easy fixture list. It’s hard to see past the Arsenal win here, but at 1.19 they are hardly worth jumping up and down to back. I feel Everton can score at some stage given their recent form, even with Arsenal being so good at the back this season, and Both Teams To Score is worth a small bet at 2.04.
The Striker Says:
One point win Both Teams To Score at 2.04 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ArlEve
BRENTFORD V NEWCASTLE
4pm Brentford host Newcastle next, and I would have said this could have been one of the most entertaining games on the final day but then I saw Brighton v Manchester United! We should still expect a very open game here. Both sides like to play attacking football, and they have both had a lot of issues at the back this season. Newcastle went into their clash with Manchester United on Wednesday night as favourites but once again struggled away from home to lose 3-2. Their average xG conceded away from home this season is as high as 1.75 and they are only creating an average of 1.33. That’s the main reason why they have dropped out of the Top Four this season – in the middle of the season their away form was effecting their confidence it started to creep into their home performances too. Overall, it’s just been a disappointing season. They can catch Chelsea today and finished sixth, if Chelsea lose at home to Bournemouth – Chelsea are the red-hot favourites there though. Newcastle come into this game as the favourites at 2.32 with Brentford 3.0 and the draw is 4.1 at the time of writing.
As I said above, we should have an open game here. I think this game screams goals, and I was actually surprised to see Over 2.5 goals trading as high as 1.45 when I clicked into this market. Some punters would say that is a short price, but I expected to see it trading in the 1.35 range or at least within a tick or two of that. Over 3.5 goals is also a tempting price at 2.02 or bigger. Newcastle have been leaking chances and goals for fun away from home this season, and Brentford will attack them. Brentford have been leaking goals too because their average xG conceded is 1.61 which is in the bottom six defensive figures this season in the Premier League. Neither side have a reason to sit back here, and as I said this is definitely one of the games that could see a crazy 3-3 or 4-4 final day result. I do feel the 1.45 on Over 2.5 goals looks cracking value, but I’m very happy with a confident bet on Over 3.5 goals at 2.02 – I’d have this odds on.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 3.5 goals at 2.02 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BreNwc
BRIGHTON V MANCHESTER UNITED
4pm Brighton host Manchester United next, and this could easily be the game with the most goals today! We saw another action packed Manchester United game on Wednesday night as they won 3-2. Erik ten Hag gave a good speech to the fans at Old Trafford in their final home game of the season, and now it’s all eyes on what the new owners do during the summer. With so many top clubs looking for a new manager this season, it seems United are in a difficult place. To be honest, there have been so many issues with the squad it’s hard to see how a change in manager will help at this stage – we’ve been through the two/three year cycle of managers time and time again at Old Trafford now. If they sack Erik ten Hag, you can’t see anything changing and we’ll probably be back talking about the next manager leaving at the end of the 2025/26 season. They still have an FA Cup Final to look forward to of course, but they meet Manchester City there so they are very unlikely to end their season with a trophy. Brighton have had a very disappointing season too, and they also have had a lot of issues at the back.
Brighton have been much better going forward however; their average xG created is 1.64 which is the joint-fifth best attacking figure in the Premier League. Five wins from their last 22 Premier League games just isn’t good enough with a stat like that, and they’ve just been very sloppy at the back. United have been woeful at the back too, so it’s no surprise to see Brighton come into this game as favourites. The home win is trading 2.18 with Manchester United 3.15 and the draw is 4.3 at the time of writing. To be honest, neither side inspire confidence coming into this final game and I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market. I feel this game absolutely screams goals, and the market is expecting goals too with Over 2.5 goals trading as short as 1.36. Over 3.5 goals looks a cracking position at 1.87 however, and I’m very happy with a confident bet on that. This should be a very open game with plenty of mistakes at both ends of the pitch.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 3.5 goals at 1.87 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BriMnu
BURNLEY V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
4pm Burnley host Nottingham Forest in what could have been a relegation blockbuster, but unfortunately for Burnley they head into the final day with their faith already decided as they head back to the Championship. They came into this game not really discussed as major relegation candidates after being so successful in the Championship but they just haven’t been good enough. Their average xG created is 1.0 and that’s the third worst attacking figure in the Premier League; indeed the sides with the four worst attacking figures at the bottom four. Nottingham Forest definitely have a lot of work to do if they are going to survive next season – their average xG created is only 1.14 which isn’t too far away from the likes of Luton and Burnley. They come into the final day three points ahead of Luton, but the goal difference is so massive that there is no chance of Luton catching them. If they were playing Manchester City maybe they’d have to worry about Luton winning and their goal difference, but they’ll be fine today. Forest have been better than the bottom three at the back, and that is what saved them.
Nottingham Forest come into the game as the favourites at 2.38 with Burnley 3.0 and the draw is 3.9 at the time of writing. I have to say I was surprised to see Forest trading as short as 2.38 when I clicked into the market. I expected a much more open betting heat; the reality here is we have two very poor sides and it’s easy to pick holes in them. Burnley have been very poor at home this season; only ten points is the joint-worst home record this season and we all know how important home form is in the relegation battle. Forest have only managed 13 points away from home, so it’s not like they have been superb on the road. On the stats, there isn’t that much between the pair – like I said I would have Forest as the favourites but not as short as 2.38. From a value point of view, I’m happy with a Forest lay – I expect a closer game than the odds suggest.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Nottingham Forest to beat Burnley at 2.38 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BrnNot
CHELSEA V BOURNEMOUTH
4pm Chelsea have finished their season strongly, and they aim to finish with five straight wins as they host Bournemouth. They come into the game as the hot favourites, the home win is currently trading 1.47 with Bournemouth 6.6 and the draw is 5.5 at the time of writing. Obviously Chelsea have had a very difficult season but you can see some improvement under Mauricio Pochettino. Their average xG created has been increasing as the season has gone on, it’s 1.64 which is the joint-fifth best attacking figure in the Premier League along with Brighton. If they could iron out the small issues at the back, and also iron out some issues within the squad then they could actually challenge for the Top Four again next season. Around Christmas time, you would have said they were years off. I still feel that there are issues in the squad – after they lost the Carabao Cup Final we saw some players laughing/poking fun at the ones crying, then we also got the little penalty drama in the win over Everton. The one thing to say about Chelsea is that they might not actually be a team, rather every man for himself. Pochettino needs to fix that.
Everything considered, Chelsea won’t be too unhappy with their season – they will get European football. Bournemouth are another side that can be happy with their season; they didn’t even have to worry about getting close to a relegation battle this season. They have played a very attacking brand of football and that has paid off. Their average xG created is inside the top ten at 1.48 and while this has led to them conceding a lot of chances and goals, they have got a lot more results this season. With Chelsea conceding so many sloppy goals this season, Bournemouth will fancy their chances of getting the upset. Only one loss in their last 14 Premier League games for Chelsea doesn’t inspire confidence in the 1.47 lay however, but their games have been jam packed with goals. Bournemouth won’t sit back here either, and Both Teams To Score looks a nice bet at the same price as the Chelsea win.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.47 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ChlBou
CRYSTAL PALACE V ASTON VILLA
4pm We have an interesting game next as Crystal Palace host Aston Villa. Palace have been finishing the season on a high, and seem to be heading into next season in a really good place under Oliver Glasner. Bayern Munich wanted to sign him, but Palace asked for a fee of 100 million! It was very unfortunate that Roy Hodgson had to resign as manager through ill health, but at the time the fans weren’t happy with the style of play and you’d have to say that they finish the season in an exciting place. The only shame was that Hodgson didn’t get to leave on his own terms after doing so much for the club. Aston Villa fans also head into the final day in a great place – they have Champions League football to look forward to next season! It must have been a very strange situation watching Spurs against Manchester City midweek – most of the Spurs fans wanted their side to lose and thus miss out on putting Villa under pressure heading into the final day. Obviously a Spurs result would have effectively handed Arsenal the title, and it turns out that Arsenal not winning was more important to some fans than a chance at a Top Four finish!
This should be a quality game, but I was very surprised when I saw the odds. Crystal Palace come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.91 with Aston Villa 3.75 and the draw is 4.5 at the time of writing. I know they have made huge improvement under Glasner but I wasn’t expecting to see Palace trading odds on here! They are one of the most in-form sides heading into the final day – they’ve won five of their last six including wins against Liverpool, Newcastle and Manchester United. Villa started the season in superb form and although they went through a few bumps, you could argue that they were in the right place at the right time as regards the Top Four. Manchester United and Chelsea were never in the race, and with Spurs you know a mistake is always around the corner. That being said, Villa have still score over two goals per game on average. I’m going to keep stakes small here because as I said Palace are the form team, but I just can’t have them as short as 1.91 here – I feel we’ll see a closer game than those odds suggest and I’m happy with a lay from a value point of view.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Crystal Palace to beat Aston Villa at 1.91 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CryAvl
LIVERPOOL V WOLVES
4pm It’s Jurgen Klopp’s final game as Liverpool manager as they host Wolves at Anfield. He’s going to get some send off; the Liverpool fans absolutely adore him after he guided the club to Premier League success after so many years waiting. It was a shame it was during Covid times and empty stadiums, but we’re still going to see some very emotional scenes here. I have to say I didn’t see the news coming when it broke that Klopp was leaving; he seemed a perfect fit for Liverpool and they continue to play excellent football. Their average xG created this season is 2.23 which is the best attacking figure in the Premier League – it’s 0.03 higher than Manchester City which is no mean feat! Klopp’s Liverpool played some sensational football over the last few years, however as I said about Arsenal above, it’s just hard to beat Pep Guardiola and Manchester City. Where Liverpool can definitely improve is at the back – they concede far more goals and chances compared to Manchester City and Arsenal. It will be interesting to see how the situation plays out however; do Liverpool take a backwards step next season – how much cash to spend will the owners give the new manager too.
They will be fully expected to win here, and they come into the game as the red-hot favourites. Liverpool are trading as short as 1.19 with Wolves 16.5 and the draw is 9.6 at the time of writing. All the focus will be on the Klopp farewell, and we could have a crazy end-to-end game. Neither side have any reason to sit back, so we should have an open and attacking game. The market is expecting goals with Over 2.5 goals trading as short as 1.27 – that’s one of the shortest goal prices of the day! The bet I like is Both Teams To Score at 1.79 however; Liverpool have conceded plenty of chances this season, and they have conceded goals recently too. They’ve conceded nine goals in their last four Premier League games, and they haven’t kept a Premier League clean sheet since March 2nd against Nottingham Forest which was ten games ago. I know Wolves haven’t been great going forward but they can score at some stage in what should be an entertaining game.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.79 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivWvh
LUTON TOWN V FULHAM
4pm Luton Town face the reality of going into their final game against Fulham with no chance of staying up. They are three points behind Nottingham Forest and while they could finish level on points, they have no chance of going past Forest on goal difference. As I aid above, Nottingham Forest would only have to worry if they were playing Manchester City! Luton battled hard this season and you have to give them credit for that, but they just haven’t been playing to a Premier League standard. Their average xG created is only 0.98 – that’s the second worst attacking figure in the Premier League, only Sheffield United have created more. They’ve also been very poor at the back; their average xG conceded is a whopping 1.77 which is the third worst defensive figure. Put the two together and you have the second worst overall performance figure – it’s not surprise to see them going down, only Sheffield United have played worse football than Luton this season. They just haven’t been good enough. Fulham come into this game as the favourites at 2.3 with Luton Town 2.98 and the draw is 4.2 at the time of writing.
What makes this market interesting is that Fulham have definitely struggled away from home this season. They have managed to grind out some recent results, but only Burnley, Nottingham Forest, Luton Town and Sheffield United have had less points than Fulham away from home this season which isn’t a good stat. Watching Fulham this season has been like watching two different teams – the one who plays at home and the one who plays away! They are conceding an average xG of 1.69 away from home which is very high, and they are creating less – at home they create more than they concede. I do feel that the 2.3 is a little short on Fulham here, but there aren’t many positives with this Luton side and they have finished the season with a winless run when they needed the points most. I’m going to keep stakes small here, and the draw looks a nice option at the value price of 4.2. I’d have Fulham a little bigger in the betting and the market more open.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 4.2 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LutFul
MANCHESTER CITY V WEST HAM
4pm This is the fixture everyone will be watching on Sunday afternoon as Manchester City host West Ham with one hand already on the title. They come into the final game with a two point advantage over Arsenal – interestingly Arsenal have an advantage in the goal difference so a draw won’t be good enough for City here. I doubt they are thinking that however! The market is very confident on a home win here with City trading as short as 1.12 at the time of writing – that’s the shortest price of the final day and it’s actually one of the shortest prices of the season. If you fancy a shock, and it would be a massive shock, West Ham are trading 24.0 with the draw 14.5. David Moyes got a good send off in West Ham’s final home game – the fans will never forget him leading them to the Europa Conference League win but the reality is West Ham have really struggled this season. They have an average xG conceded of 1.81 which is the second worst defensive figure in the Premier League this season. That’s quite a shocking stat to be honest – only Sheffield United have been worse at the back. Their average xG created is only 1.19 too, but they are over-performing in front of goal and that is what has them so far up the table.
If they performed in line with their xG, they’d be in the relegation battle. Football is data driven these days, and that’s why David Moyes is going after this game. Manchester City have an average xG created of 2.20 so we have one of the best attacking sides in Europe against one of the worst defensive sides in the Premier League! I can’t see past a City win here and another Premier League title – it’s a massive achievement to claim four in a row. It’s never been done before, but obviously they also have the 115 charges hanging over them and we’ve never had a situation like that either! On the pitch though, City will win this comfortably in my opinion. Any Other Home Win (Manchester City to score four or more goals and win) is trading 2.14 and that looks a nice bet in the Correct Score market. West Ham have been all over the place at the back this season, and City can take full advantage.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Any Other Home Win Correct Score at 2.14 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MciWes
SHEFFIELD UNITED V TOTTENHAM
4pm We finish the final day of the 2023/24 Premier League season with Sheffield United hosting Spurs! I have to say this fixture might have the most strange atmosphere of the final day – we have Sheffield United who have been nailed to the bottom of the table all season heading to the Championship and then we have a Spurs side who basically had their own fanbase cheering against them midweek when they hosted Manchester City. Obviously a result for Spurs there would have handed Arsenal the edge in the title race today, but a win for Spurs would have also given them a chance at a Top Four finish. They come into this game the red-hot favourites at 1.37 with Sheffield United 8.0 and the draw is 6.6 at the time of writing. When you consider the fact that Crystal Palace are trading odds on to beat Aston Villa today too, you can probably understand why Ange Postecoglou was so frustrated and angry in the press conference after the City loss. We also had videos on social media of him having a go at fans who were telling him to throw the game.
Obviously Arsenal and Spurs are massive rivals, and dare I say most fans would rather stop Arsenal winning the title than have a chance at Champions League football. Sky Sports interviewed fans before the game and I have to say a huge percentage wanted them to lose! It’s been a disappointing season for Spurs after a very bright start – they have conceded too many goals and chances at the back again. The positive is that their average xG created of 1.76 is the fourth best in the Premier League – they just need to focus on fixing their issues at the back now. I suppose something “Spursy” is never far away! As I mentioned in the games above, Sheffield United have been the worst performing side in the Premier League this season, their average xG conceded is 1.92 – Spurs can cover the 1.5 goal Handicap here and that looks a very nice end to the day at 1.87. It’s been a brilliant season again, and thanks for reading every preview! Another season of all games covered and hopefully some nice bets landed!
The Striker Says:
Two points win Tottenham -1.5 goals to beat Sheffield United at 1.87 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SheTot
