THE STRIKER: previews Sunday’s Premier League games between SOUTHAMPTON v MAN U, CHELSEA v TOTTENHAM and ARSENAL v WOLVES all with extended stats and a recommended bet.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
SOUTHAMPTON V MANCHESTER UNITED
2pm We have a fantastic day ahead in the Premier League! So many questions, very competitive games and interesting narratives everywhere, I can’t wait. We start with Southampton hosting Manchester United with United looking more than a little short at 2.06. Southampton have been excellent this season – even enjoying top spot for a few hours prior to the International break. This should be an excellent test for United who haven’t looked to be in the same form as they were when they returned from lockdown last season.
United were quite poor when they beat West Brom 1-0 last weekend. While they were always likely to win midweek against Istanbul Basaksehir, it was good to see them score four goals from a United fan perspective. They need to create more chances in general. They were good away to Everton but Southampton were able to beat Everton recently and I think this is a good time to lay United. Southampton are in excellent form and full of confidence. A minor worry might be that they were better away from home last season compared to at home, but I still think laying United at 2.06 offers a lot of value.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Manchester United to beat Southampton at 2.06 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQsoumun
MATCH STATS
- Southampton are winless in their last eight Premier League meetings with Man Utd (D5 L3) since a 1-0 win at Old Trafford in January 2016. However, four of their last five against the Red Devils have ended level.
- Manchester United haven’t lost any of their last nine Premier League away games against Southampton (W5 D4). Their only defeat at St Mary’s in the competition came back in August 2003 (0-1).
- Manchester United have come from behind to win nine Premier League games against Southampton – only the Red Devils themselves have won more from behind against an opponent in the competition (10 vs Newcastle).
- Southampton have won each of their last three Premier League home games, winning 2-0 each time. They last won four in a row at St Mary’s back in May 2016.
- Manchester United have won their last seven Premier League away games – they’ve never won eight in a row on the road in the top-flight before. Meanwhile, the Red Devils are looking to win their first four away games to a league season for the third time in their history, also doing so in 1913-14 and 1985-86.
- 19 of Manchester United’s 115 Premier League goals under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer have been scored from the penalty spot (16.5%) – it’s the joint-highest ratio of goals scored from the penalty spot for a team under a manager in the competition’s history (level with Crystal Palace under Roy Hodgson, min. 50 goals scored).
- Southampton are unbeaten in their last seven Premier League games (W5 D2), with only Tottenham on a longer current run in the competition. Saints last went longer without defeat between September-November 2013 under Mauricio Pochettino (8).
- Southampton’s Theo Walcott has scored three Premier League goals against Manchester United, with all of these coming at a different ground (Old Trafford, Emirates, Goodison Park). Only Les Ferdinand (5), Nicolas Anelka (4) and Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink (4) have scored a Premier League goal against Man Utd at more different venues.
- Since his debut in the competition, Man Utd’s Bruno Fernandes has been involved in more Premier League goals than any other player in the competition (24 – 14 goals, 10 assists), while only Kevin De Bruyne (74) has created more chances than the Portuguese (56).
- No player has scored the winning goal in more different Premier League games than Bruno Fernandes this season, with the Portuguese netting the winner in all four of Manchester United’s victories so far this term.
CHELSEA V TOTTENHAM
4.30pm What a superb fixture to take the prime time TV slot on Super Sunday! Here’s a thought – has there been a more important London Derby between these clubs over the last few years? Neither have challenged for the title for a while, but with Liverpool and Man City coming back to the pack and both these sides in excellent form – it’s early in the season but the winner lays down a massive marker for the busy Christmas period. Spurs have their two massive London derbies back-to-back, but they will fancy their chances against Arsenal. A Chelsea win would be massive for them, and after just beating Man City last weekend they will surely be full of confidence.
I’m really looking forward to this fixture. Both sides are in excellent form and while Spurs started the weekend in top spot, a Chelsea win would see them overtake their London rivals. Jose Mourinho really has this Spurs team playing for him – we have seen this before only for it to go massively wrong, but for the time being it’s classic Jose Mourinho. They are out-working teams, and with Kane and Son he has the talent to employ the tactics he wants. It will be fascinating to see what happens if Kane and Son hit a dip in form, but for now they are firing. I’m a huge fan of Chelsea at the moment and we have landed some nice bets on them already this season, but today I’m happy to go against them at the odds. They are 2.16 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange and I just feel that is too short with Spurs playing excellent football. I fully expect a closer game than those odds suggest, and I have to lay them from a value point of view.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Chelsea to beat Tottenham at 2.16 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQchettm
MATCH STATS
- Chelsea have won their last three Premier League games against Spurs, more than they had in their previous eight against them (W2 D2 L4). They last won more consecutively against them in the competition between January 2000 and March 2002 (six games).
- Tottenham have won just one of their last 34 away games against Chelsea in all competitions (D11 L22), losing the last three in a row since a 3-1 victory in April 2018.
- Spurs have kept just one clean sheet in their last 17 away matches against Chelsea in all competitions, a 0-0 draw in March 2012.
- Chelsea (7, level with Southampton) and Tottenham (8) are on the current longest unbeaten runs in the Premier League, with Spurs one of three sides with a 100% away record in the competition so far this term.
- Since the start of 2018-19, Chelsea have won eight of their 10 home London derbies in the Premier League (D1 L1), dropping points in consecutive games last season against West Ham (0-1) and Arsenal (2-2).
- Tottenham have won all four of their Premier League away games so far this season – only four teams have ever won their first five on the road in a Premier League campaign (Newcastle in 1994-95, Charlton in 2005-06, Chelsea in 2008-09 and Man City in 2017-18). Meanwhile, Spurs have only done this once in their top-flight history, doing so in their last title winning season of 1960-61.
- Tottenham are looking to win five consecutive Premier League games for the first time since December 2018. The Lilywhites will have been top of the Premier League table for at least seven days this season, more than they had in their previous 10 campaigns combined (6 days between 2010-11 and 2019-20).
- Tottenham boss José Mourinho has lost both of his Premier League meetings with Chelsea manager Frank Lampard – the Portuguese has never lost three consecutive league matches against the same manager or club before.
- Chelsea striker Tammy Abraham is looking to score in three consecutive Premier League games for the first time since September 2019. He’s scored 18 Premier League goals since the start of last season, twice as many as any other player for the Blues.
- Tottenham striker Harry Kane has been involved in 16 Premier League goals this season (7 goals, 9 assists), more than any other player. He’s averaging a goal or assist every 50 minutes so far in the competition this term.
ARSENAL V WOLVES
7.15pm Arsenal and Wolves finish an excellent day. This should be a very competitive game, with both sides very similar. Indeed, only a point separates the pair with Wolves on 14 and Arsenal 13 after nine games each. There’s been a lot of buzz around Arteta and Arsenal but personally I don’t see it. They have been lucky to win some big games, but you only have to look at their underlining numbers to see that they are the same old Arsenal side – they have just had a decent run of results. For example, they finished with ten men against Leeds but managed a 0-0 draw while giving away an xG of 2.01.
I would love to go strongly against Arsenal with a reliable side, but while I feel that Arsenal are worth laying at 2.22 today, the stake has to be small because Wolves have been very hit-and-miss this season. I take on board that they never create a lot of chances, they are a side who will grind out results rather than blow teams away. However, the lack of chances this season is a worry, and perhaps that’s reflected in their results. You never see many goals in their games, and while Arsenal might be able to out-score them today I just can’t have the home win as short at 2.22. I don’t think there will be much between the sides, and the Arsenal lay is worth a small investment.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Arsenal to beat Wolves at 2.22 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQarlwol
MATCH STATS
- Arsenal have lost just one of their last 19 top-flight meetings with Wolves (W13 D5), going down 1-3 at Molineux in April 2019.
- Wolves are winless in their last nine away league games against Arsenal (D4 L5) since a 3-2 victory in September 1979. However, each of their last three visits to the Emirates have ended in a 1-1 draw.
- Arsenal have lost their last two home Premier League games by an aggregate score of 0-4 – they’ve not lost three in a row at home in the league without scoring since a run of four in November/December 1908.
- Arsenal have scored just one goal in their last five Premier League games, failing to score in either of their last two. They last went three league games without scoring back in February 2016.
- After a 10-game unbeaten run in Premier League games in London (W5 D5), Wolves have lost their last two in the capital by an aggregate score of 0-6.
- Only Tottenham (9) have conceded fewer Premier League goals this season than Wolves (10). However, coming into this weekend’s games, Wolves have scored fewer goals than any other side in the top half of the table (9).
- Arsenal haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last seven Premier League home games, their longest run without a league shutout at home since a run of nine between January-August 2007.
- Arsenal are averaging just 9.1 shots-per-game in the Premier League this season, their lowest on record in a single campaign in the competition (since 1997-98). Indeed, their lowest three average shots-per-game figures have been in the last three seasons (also 12.3 in 2018-19 and 10.7 in 2019-20).
- No Arsenal player has had more shots (13) or created more chances (11) than Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang this season. However, the Gabonese striker has scored just one goal in his last eight league games.
- Since Wolves were promoted back to the Premier League in 2018, Raúl Jiménez has scored 32% of their goals in the division (34/107). Of the ever-present teams in that time, only Jamie Vardy at Leicester (36%) and Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (33%) have scored a higher share of their side’s goals since 2018-19.
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