SUNDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews the two matches between SHEFFIELD UNITED v BRIGHTON and LUTON TOWN v MANCHESTER UNITED both including a recommended BETDAQ bet.
SHEFFIELD UNITED V BRIGHTON
2pm It’s an interesting Super Sunday in the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We have two odds on favourites away from home who have been leaking a lot of goals this season against two sides in the relegation battle. We start the day with Sheffield United hosting Brighton, and I was probably being generous saying Sheffield United were in the relegation battle. The reality is they are nailed on to go back down to the Championship; they start the weekend seven points behind Luton Town having played a game more. They did put a massive dent in the chances of Luton Town staying up however with a win away from home last weekend. Brighton are having a disappointing season as well; they sit in mid-table and they’re six points behind Manchester United in sixth – they’ll very likely miss out on the Europa League spots this season. Sheffield United have been the worst side in the Premier League this season – they have the lowest attacking figure and the worst defensive figure too. Their actual goals conceded average is as high as 2.5 – as I say you don’t win many games conceding twice, whatever about more than that!
Brighton have also had major issues at the back. They’ve been playing a very open game, and they’ve just been too sloppy at the back. Their average xG conceded is 1.33 which is respectable, but their actual goals conceded average is 1.67. They’re in the top five when it comes to attacking though, and while they have gone through a tough time for getting results they should be able to outclass this Sheffield United side. Brighton are trading 1.68 with Sheffield United 5.1 and the draw is 4.6 at the time of writing. The 1.68 feels too big on Brighton here, but Sheffield United did manage to keep them to a 1-1 draw earlier in the season when Brighton had home advantage. Brighton scored early, but you’d have to be disappointed they didn’t create more to win the game from there. Obviously Brighton haven’t been winning a huge amount of games this season and that is a worry; I don’t won’t to support Sheffield United this season because they have been so poor. I feel the best option here is to stay out of the match odds market; Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.59 and that looks the best position given how poor both sides have been at the back.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.59 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SheBri
LUTON TOWN V MANCHESTER UNITED
4.30pm We have another interesting market here as Luton Town host Manchester United. It’s easy to pick holes in both sides here, and in fairness it’s always entertaining with this United side – mainly because they concede so many chances! Erik ten Hag’s men come into the game as the odds on favourites; they are trading 1.85 at the time of writing with Luton Town 4.2 and the draw is 4.4. As I said above, Luton suffered a major blow in their chances of staying up last weekend with a loss here against Sheffield United. That was a golden opportunity for three points against the worst side in the Premier League and after heading into that game with so much momentum it was a bitterly disappointing result. Speaking of momentum, Manchester United definitely have the wind in their sails at the moment. Three wins in a row has seen them build a little gap between the top six and the rest – United have Aston Villa firmly in their sights after beating them last weekend, but it’s hard to see them catching Spurs in fourth. Fifth seems the best hope for United. Despite the recent wins, the red flags are still there – their average xG conceded has come up to 1.60 which is an exceptionally high figure for one of the top sides. Away from home that increases to a whopping 1.76 which is a very high figure; that’s bigger than Luton Town’s average xG conceded for example.
It feels like United are never far away from conceding chances and goals, and a lot of their results depend on how they perform going forward. They’re having a good run at the moment, but you just know they’ll find themselves 2-0 down soon eventually – maybe they’ll come back to win 3-2 though the way things are going! With that in mind though, I just can’t commit to backing United here at 1.85 – I can see them being a popular bet considering their recent wins, but it’s still too short given all the chances they have been conceding. The big question here is will Luton be good enough to take advantage, however once again I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.6 and that price jumps off the page; we have two sides who consistently leak goals and chances, and I can see a very open game. I like the Overs in both games today, but this is my best bet of Super Sunday.
The Striker Says:
Four points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LutMun
