SUNDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews a massive Sunday in the Premier League including the top of the table clash between LIVERPOOL v MAN CITY – all games include a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ASTON VILLA V TOTTENHAM
1pm A massive Super Sunday from the Premier League awaits! We have some huge games on BETDAQ Betting Exchange; no doubt all eyes will be on the top of the table clash between Liverpool and Manchester City later but we start the day with a huge Top Four battle too between Aston Villa and Spurs. In between we also have two very interesting markets, and they could have an impact on the relegation battle too. Some Sundays are better than others! We start at the earlier than usual time of 1pm, and we also have the most open market of the day too. Aston Villa are the favourites with home advantage at 2.54 with Spurs 2.68 and the draw is 4.1 at the time of writing. I have to say on first look at the market, the draw definitely feels big at 4.1. I know the market is probably thinking Spurs will be in “need to win” mode given they are five points behind, but away from home a draw wouldn’t be a bad result here for Spurs. I know it’s against Chelsea, but they do have a game in hand which would close the gap to two points if they can win – and let’s be honest Chelsea have been bang average this season. This has been a very tough place to come and win this season too; Arsenal and Manchester City both lost 1-0 here.
Given the results over the last few weeks, especially the Spurs loss to Wolves when they had home advantage, it’s definitely advantage Aston Villa in the battle for fourth. If Villa were to win here I would suggest that would be a knockout blow for Spurs – at the end of April and early May they have to play Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool all back-to-back. That is one hell of a difficult run-in, plus all three will likely be going for the title too given the way things are looking. Villa also have to play those three on the run-in but they are more spaced out. There’s only 0.02 between the sides on overall performance figures this season; Spurs have been better going forward and Villa have been better at the back. Villa have obviously been very good at home; their average xG conceded at home is only 1.09. I can see why Villa are the favourites, but I still feel the draw at 4.1 is cracking value here. I would lean towards Villa winning the game but there’s very little between the sides and the 4.1 does stand out in the market here.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 4.1 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AvlTot
BRIGHTON V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
2pm We have two games kicking off at 2pm involving the Europa League sides and against sides in the relegation battle. We start with Brighton hosting Nottingham Forest, and while on paper this is a game that you’d expecting Brighton to win they have struggled getting over the line lately. They come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.81 with Nottingham Forest 4.7 and the draw is 4.2 at the time of writing. They’ve only recorded three wins from their last twelve Premier League games which is a very poor return, especially when considering how good they have been going forward this season. That’s not even mentioning the hammering Roma gave them on Thursday! Their average xG created is 1.72 which is the fifth best attacking figure in the Premier League, they should really be ahead of Manchester United, West Ham and Newcastle. Forest fans will be glued to every Luton game at the moment – it definitely looks like it will be one or the other going down. Forest started this weekend with a four point advantage, but Luton have a game in hand. It’s a huge week for Forest as Luton play their game in hand midweek and then the two sides face each other next weekend!
It’s hard to expect anything from Forest here, but with Brighton struggling to win games every point is so important at the moment. Points away from home have been hard to come by for Forest – only nine all season, once again much like last season they just haven’t travelled well. Their average xG created away from home is a very poor 0.89. Remarkably, their two away wins this season have come against Chelsea and Newcastle; two sides you’d expect to win much like Brighton here! This game falls in between the two Last 16 legs of the Europa League for Brighton but that tie is effectively dead now that Roma won the first leg 4-0, however I still feel the 1.81 is worth backing here. There aren’t many positive things to say about Forest lately, especially away from home. I’m happy to keep stakes limited because there are worries given Brighton’s recent run, but they should outclass this Forest side.
The Striker Says:
One point win Brighton to beat Nottingham Forest at 1.81 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BhaNot
WEST HAM V BURNLEY
2pm Next we have a very interesting market as West Ham host Burnley. West Ham have been getting a lot of results this season, they started this matchday sitting in seventh and they’ve recorded back-to-back wins now after going six games without a win. As I have highlighted over the last few weeks, there are some major red flags in the West Ham performance figures this season. Their average xG conceded is a whopping 1.81 – only Sheffield United, and we know how bad they have been, have given away more chances this season. West Ham are also massively over-performing in front of goal; their average xG created is only 1.14, in the bottom six attacking figures, but their actual goals scored average 1.59. That’s a huge difference, and has masked over a lot of the problems at the back. Eventually The Hammers will stop scoring from awkward angles because that’s just probability isn’t it. Football is all about putting the ball in the back of the net, but the xG figures and stats can easily guide us on how sides are playing. Usually it’s a correct reflection too. You can definitely see West Ham dropping down the table towards the end of the season.
What makes this game very interesting though is West Ham come into the game as the odds on favourites. The Hammers are trading 1.7 with Burnley 5.5 and the draw is 4.2 at the time of writing. I wouldn’t be rushing to take the 1.7 on West Ham given how many chances they are conceding, but they are coming up against one of the worst sides in the Premier League here. Burnley look nailed on to go back down to the Championship, and their average xG created is only 0.94. That’s the second worst attacking figure in the Premier League so it’s highly likely that West Ham will “get away” with being poor at the back. This is a game for small stakes in my opinion; it’s hard to have much faith in either side. West Ham have got a lot of results this season, but it’s not my style to follow results and ignore performance figures. With West Ham conceding so many chances, Both Teams To Score is worth a small bet at 1.78 – I can definitely see Burnley conceding so it’s just about Burnley finding a goal at some stage.
The Striker Says:
One point win Both Teams To Score at 1.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WhuBur
LIVERPOOL V MANCHESTER CITY
3.45pm Premier League games don’t come much bigger than this! What a blockbuster fixture to enjoy as Liverpool host Manchester City – heading into the weekend this is a top of the table clash but with Arsenal at home to Brentford on Saturday I’d expect to see Arsenal sitting top when this game kicks off. You don’t need me to tell you how big this game is, and we have a fascinating afternoon ahead. Manchester City come into the game as the favourites at 2.32 with Liverpool 3.1 and the draw is 3.95 at the time of writing. With only one point between the sides having played the same amount of games, a draw is probably a decent result for both sides in fairness. You’d expect City to finish the season very strongly – they’ve been here before after all, and perhaps you could say winning is more important for Liverpool. Jurgen Klopp’s men have been in superb form lately even with their injury worries, and bagged five goals on Thursday night in the Europa League. That was after their remarkable 1-0 win away to Nottingham Forest last weekend. City have been ticking off the wins too; they actually haven’t lost in the Premier League since early December.
Arsenal have been the best side at the back this season, but these two have been the best going forward. They both have an average xG over 2.0, which is absolutely superb in a league as good as the Premier League. City are marginally better, but just by 0.07. The biggest difference is at the back; City’s average xG conceded is 0.93 while Liverpool’s is 1.21. City are the better side, but that’s reflected in the odds. I don’t see much value in the match odds market here; I think the odds are pretty much bang on. Where I see value is in the goals market – Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.53 and that looks cracking value here. These two only know one way to play and that’s to attack, but I can’t see Liverpool sitting back with home advantage either. Another option is Both Teams To Score at 1.5 which I wouldn’t put anyone off at just three ticks lower but the Overs option looks an excellent bet in my opinion. We’ve had some high scoring games between these two recently, and even in the 1-0 wins looking at the xG figures it could have easily be something like 3-3! This game screams goals, and at 1.53 Over 2.5 goals is worth a Max Bet.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.53 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivMnc
