PREMIER LEAGUE SUNDAY: The Striker previews LIVERPOOL v BRIGHTON and MANCHESTER CITY v ARSENAL both including a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LIVERPOOL V BRIGHTON
2pm It’s a blockbuster Super Sunday from the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We’re going to find out a lot more about the title race with Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal all in action. Obviously City v Arsenal is going to take all the headlines but Liverpool hosting Brighton is a top quality fixture to get us underway too! Liverpool will be expected to win here and sit top of the table before Manchester City and Arsenal clash later, but Brighton do create pretty of chances. They have been conceding plenty of goals this season too however, that’s why they sit in mid-table. Liverpool are the odds on favourites at 1.4 with Brighton 8.2 and the draw is 6.0 at the time of writing. It’s a reflection of how poor Brighton have been at the back that Liverpool are as short as 1.4 here – Brighton have only kept four clean sheets in the Premier League this season which isn’t the type of record you want to bring to Anfield! Those clean sheets came against Nottingham Forest, Sheffield United, Wolves and West Ham too – all those sides have an average xG created of 1.18 or under. Compare that to Liverpool’s average xG created of 2.12!
The best way to describe Brighton this season is sloppy. Their average xG conceded is 1.28 which is a reasonable figure – Liverpool’s is 1.22 for example. However, Brighton’s actual goals conceded average is 1.57 which is a good bit over their xG and the reason why they are a mid-table side this season. Their attacking figure is good – it has them in the top five going forward. Liverpool have obviously been exceptional going forward this season, only Manchester City are creating more chances and there’s only 0.05 in the difference too. I couldn’t put anyone off Liverpool here at 1.4, but it is hard to argue that they should be massively shorter. This game screams goals to me, and the market is expecting goals too with Over 2.5 goals trading one tick shorter than the Liverpool win at 1.39. I was surprised to see Both Teams To Score trading as high as 1.63 when I clicked into the market. I know Brighton have been disappointing at times this season, but they are still creating a lot of chances. This is going to be a very open game, and while Liverpool might score three or four I can also see Brighton finding the net at some point. BTTS is a confident bet.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Both Teams To Score at 1.63 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivBha
MANCHESTER CITY V ARSENAL
4.30pm The Premier League have saved the best until last this weekend, no question about that. Manchester City host Arsenal in one of the biggest games of the season, and it will be fascinating to see how Arsenal perform here. It isn’t quite the title decider that we had last season with Liverpool involved too, and very likely to be sitting top by the time these two kick off. Arsenal were absolutely blown away by City in the run-in last season – this game is going to be so important for them from a mental point of view. It really was a case of men v boys last season; now we’ll see how Arsenal have improved since. Manchester City come into the game as the marginal odds on favourites – they are trading 1.97 with Arsenal 4.1 and the draw is 3.95 at the time of writing. Based purely from a stats point of view, we have the best attacking side against the best defensive side here. Manchester City have an average xG created of 2.17 which is incredibly impressive – to have an average xG over 2.0 is fantastic, to do it in a league as strong as the Premier League is exceptional. Arsenal have an average xG conceded of just 0.88 this season – that’s the best record at the back and why a lot of football pundits are actually giving them a better chance of winning the title this season compared to last even with the lead they had.
In fairness to City, they aren’t far behind Arsenal. They have an average xG conceded of 0.96 – the only two sides with an average under 1.0. The next best is Liverpool, quite a bit away at 1.22. Arsenal aren’t as good as City or Liverpool going forward, but again there isn’t a huge amount in it. Arsenal’s average xG created is 1.91; impressive by most standards! We do have the best two sides in the Premier League here, even if Liverpool are a shorter price to lift the title than Arsenal. Arteta has given Arsenal a massive backbone while he’s been here, and that has been the major difference. Not only that, they are just as impressive at the back away from home – even Wenger’s Arsenal used to crumble under pressure away from home. Arsenal have got results from the last two meetings between the sides, but their record here isn’t as good – they have lost their last eight visits in all competitions which is quite the record. I know there isn’t much in it, but City are clearly the better side overall – they are much better going forward comparing the two, and there isn’t much between them at the back. I’d make City a little shorter than 1.97 especially with their record here.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Manchester City to beat Arsenal at 1.97 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MciArl
