PREMIER LEAGUE SUNDAY: The Striker previews LIVERPOOL v CRYSTAL PALACE, WEST HAM v FULHAM and ARSENAL V ASTON VILLA all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LIVERPOOL V CRYSTAL PALACE
2pm We have another fascinating Super Sunday from the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. It’s another big day in the title race with Liverpool and Arsenal both in action, however they are both at home and will be fully expected to win. Although you could have said that about Liverpool in the Europa League this week; they started at 1.38 to beat Atalanta here and got tonked 3-0! It’s been a poor few days for Liverpool; they were odds on to beat Manchester United last weekend and had to settle for a draw which was a setback in the title race. I know Old Trafford is always a big game for Liverpool, but United have been so poor at the back this season that was definitely two points dropped rather than one earned. If you’re looking for a re-set though, Crystal Palace at home is pretty much the perfect fixture. Anything bar a comfortable win for Liverpool would be a massive shock here. They come into the game as the red-hot favourites; the home win is as short as 1.23 with Crystal Palace 14.5 and the draw is 7.8 at the time of writing.
I know it’s been a difficult week for Liverpool, this in my opinion this is going to be a case of how many goals they will score rather than will they win. We’ll have to look to the side markets for some value here; from a match odds point of view I would recommend including Liverpool in any weekend Acca. Liverpool have an average xG created of 2.20 which is the best attacking figure in the Premier League heading into this week – to highlight the gulf in class between the sides that’s nearly double the Palace figure of 1.12 which is the fourth worst attacking figure! Palace have been sloppy at the back too; they are conceding an average of 1.74 goals per game – over their xG, but it’s hard to see past a comfortable Liverpool win here. The Reds are scoring over two goals per game while Palace are conceding the same. Liverpool are trading 1.61 -1.5 goals and that’s my most confident bet of the day – not quite a five out of five, but four out of five!
The Striker Says:
Four points win Liverpool -1.5 goals to beat Crystal Palace at 1.61 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivCrl
WEST HAM V FULHAM
2pm Aside from the two massive home favourites on Sunday, we have a very open betting heat in between! West Ham host Fulham and this is very close to being the most open market of the Premier League weekend. There’s plenty to discuss here; to be honest it’s mostly reasons to take on both sides! It’s hard to have confidence in either side looking at the stats, and you can understand the open market. West Ham are the favourites at 2.48 with Fulham 3.0 and the draw is 3.75. West Ham were put to the sword on Thursday night against Bayer Leverkusen on Thursday night; to be honest they were lucky to only lose 2-0 – they were absolutely battered. West Ham have been one of the biggest over-performing sides in the Premier League this season; their average xG created is only 1.16 which is the sixth worst attacking figure but their actual goals scored is 1.63. That’s a huge difference, and the reason they have been getting away with conceding an average xG of 1.78 which is a massive figure to be honest. Only Sheffield United have been conceding more chances this season; I know another talking point is that Manchester United aren’t far off the West Ham figure but that doesn’t make it any better.
Although the stats clearly point to being against West Ham here, Fulham have been very poor away from home this season. It’s like they have been a different side at home and away! At home, they are creating more chances than they are conceding but away from home they have been exceptionally poor at the back. Their average xG conceded is as high as 1.72. They have started to get some recent results away from home – they beat Manchester United, which isn’t difficult these days, but conceded three goals in a 3-3 draw with Sheffield United too – they drew 2-2 away with Burnley too. Only Burnley, Nottingham Forest, Luton and Sheffield United have less points away from home this season. As I said, it’s hard to have confidence in either side here, but I like Over 2.5 goals at 1.71. We have two very poor sides at the back here who make plenty of mistakes; I would be surprised if we didn’t see goals!
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.71 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WhuFul
ARSENAL V ASTON VILLA
4.30pm We finish Super Sunday with Arsenal hosting Aston Villa. This is a huge game for both sides, but Arsenal will be fully expected to win with home advantage. The Gunners are trading as short as 1.31 with Aston Villa at 11.5 and the draw is 6.6 at the time of writing. Aston Villa managed to beat Arsenal and Manchester City back-to-back when they had home advantage earlier in the season – they were comfortably put in their place when losing 4-1 to City in their last away game and you wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar result here. Although Villa are hanging in the Top Four battle, they have definitely lost momentum in recent months. It’s one win in five games now after a 3-3 draw with Brentford last weekend who haven’t been having the best season either. They are conceding more chances and goals, and if you bring that kind of form to Arsenal away then more than likely you’re going to get punished. It is interesting to see what kind of performances we get from Arsenal on the run-in though; they fell to pieces on the run-in last season – they could be in a situation where City and Liverpool have already notched up wins this weekend!
Despite Villa’s poor run of results in the Premier League recently, they did win midweek in the Europa Conference League Quarter-Finals. They went down without a real fight against City – surely they have to attack here and just see what happens. They do come up against the best defensive side in the Premier League however; Arsenal have an average xG conceded this season of only 0.91. The only other side sub 1.0 is Manchester City. The market is expecting goals with Over 2.5 goals trading 1.52, and that looks a little short to me – I don’t see a huge amount of value in that price especially considering the market is expecting Arsenal to do most of the work with Both Teams To Score priced at 1.92. I know Villa got a hammering off City, but they still got on a score sheet. We might see a similar result, but I still feel the better value bet is BTTS rather than Over 2.5 goals at the odds. I know Arsenal have been exceptional at the back, but Villa have created a decent amount this season and the 1.92 is worth backing.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.92 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ArsAvl
