PREMIER LEAGUE SUNDAY: The Striker previews Sunday’s three matches including LIVERPOOL v SPURS all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BRIGHTON V ASTON VILLA
2pm We have a fantastic Super Sunday from the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week! We have three cracking fixtures headlined by Liverpool v Spurs late. We kick off the action with the most open betting heat of the day as Brighton host Aston Villa. It’s another big day in the Top Four race with Aston Villa and Spurs both away from home; however Aston Villa have a very strong hold on that fourth spot now after Spurs lost a game in hand away to Chelsea on Thursday night. Three losses in a row at the most important time of the season for Spurs leave Aston Villa with a seven point advantage; they just have to not blow up now and they will see Champions League football. Their fans got a taste of European football this season, but it looks like they are going to crash out of the Europa Conference League at the Semi-Final stage after losing 4-2 to Olympiakos on Thursday night. Brighton are another side that got a taste of European football this season in the Europa League, but they won’t be repeating that next season as they have had a terrible time of things. They start the weekend down in 12th, they’ve just been far too open at the back and that’s really cost them this season.
Aston Villa come into the game as the favourites at 2.54 with Brighton 2.88 and the draw is 3.85 at the time of writing. Brighton have really let themselves down this season; they have an average xG created of 1.65 which is the fifth best attacking figure in the Premier League – better than Aston Villa for example! They have been so sloppy at the back though; their average xG conceded isn’t that bad at 1.34 but their actual goals conceded average is up at 1.68 which is where the problem is. As I said about them heading into the Bournemouth game last week, only four wins from their last 19 games is a shocking stat for the amount of chances they create. They were all over the place against Bournemouth last weekend too. The 2.54 on Villa is a tempting bet even with them having a massive game on Thursday night that would have taken its toll, however Brighton games have had lots of goals lately and I can see them being very open again here. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.55 and I would have it sub 1.5 – Villa don’t sit back under Emery so we should have a very entertaining game.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.55 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BriAvl
CHELSEA V WEST HAM
2pm We have a London Derby next as Chelsea host West Ham. These two clubs started the weekend sitting beside each other in the table with Chelsea two points ahead with a game in hand. The reality is neither club will be happy with that – Chelsea fans want to be a Top Four side again and West Ham fans have got a taste of European football now after their Europa Conference League success. David Moyes has got some criticism this season – he is right when he says he’s been the clubs most successful manager in the modern era but the reality is they have major red flags in their stats. Their average xG conceded is a whopping 1.82 which is the second worst defensive figure in the Premier League this season; only Sheffield United are conceding more chances than that! What has West Ham sitting in mid-table is they are massively over-performing in front of goal. Their average xG created is only 1.17 but their actual goals scored is 1.6. They are in the top four over-performing sides this season, and you’d have to be worried with a view to next season if they stop scoring from awkward angles and play in line with their xG – as we know tends to level out over time. They could have a very disappointing season next year if things don’t get improved during the summer.
Chelsea are another club that need massive work during the season. To me their squad looks broken at the moment, and there have been plenty of signs that they aren’t playing for each other this season. Fighting over penalties at this level is a joke really for example. They have improved a lot going forward, obviously Cole Palmer is their star man, but they have huge issues at the back. Their average xG conceded of 1.49 is mid-table level but they have been conceding more than that – they’ve just been sloppy at the back. They come into this game as the odds on favourites at 1.67 with West Ham 5.0 and the draw is 4.9 at the time of writing. It’s hard to be confident on Chelsea this season, but I couldn’t put anyone off them at 1.67 given the chances West Ham have been conceding this season. I do feel this game screams goals however, both sides have been very poor at the back and I feel we’re going to get a very end-to-end and attacking game here – Over 2.5 goals looks a very nice position at 1.45. I’d be surprised if we didn’t see goals and it’s my most confident bet of the day!
The Striker Says:
Four points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.45 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CheWhu
LIVERPOOL V TOTTENHAM
4.30pm The Premier League have once again saved the best until last this weekend as Liverpool v Spurs takes up the prime time Super Sunday TV slot. I think its fair to say both clubs are finishing the season in an ambulance as they say, and we saw that with how angry Ange Postecoglou was on the touchline as he watched his side lose to Chelsea on Thursday night. We also saw tensions flare between Mo Salah and Jurgen Klopp last weekend too. Both sides have played well pretty much all season, but things have gone up in smoke in a matter of days – three losses for Spurs sees them with little hope in the Top Four race, and then for Liverpool it seemed like their season finished in days when they lost here to Crystal Palace and lost 3-0 to Atalanta in the first leg of their Europa League Quarter-Final. Liverpool have gone on to lose to Everton, and then could only draw 2-2 with West Ham last weekend. Spurs were always going to have a difficult finish to the season given their fixture list, and they still have to play Manchester City too! It’s not a surprise to see Liverpool come into this game as the odds on favourites – they are trading 1.5 with Spurs 5.9 and the draw is also 5.9 at the time of writing.
Both clubs clearly come into this game in a bad place. You’d have to say Liverpool should win here – they have home advantage and they have been much better than Spurs this season. I’m not overly keen on the 1.5 though; it’s just hard to make the case that they should be massively shorter than that and thus offer value. What happened between Salah and Klopp last weekend was surprising too; Salah seemed to be seething post game as well. Spurs have leaked a lot of chances and goals this season, and they come up against the best attacking side in the Premier League here. Liverpool have an average xG created of 2.22 which is only marginally ahead of Manchester City but shows how good they have been going forward. This game is another one today that absolutely screams goals; both sides like to play an open game and both have to win to see what happens to other clubs on the run-in. I expect a very entertaining end-to-end game; Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.29 so the market is expecting plenty of chances – I like Over 3.5 goals at 1.73. everything just points to a very open game; you wouldn’t be surprised to see a 4-4 for example!
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 3.5 goals at 1.73 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivThm
