THE STRIKER: previews Sunday’s Premier League games with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet. Five matches starting with SOUTHAMPTON v SHEFFIELD UNITED at 12pm.

The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!

Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.

SOUTHAMPTON V SHEFFIELD UNITED

12pm We have a busy Sunday in the Premier League as we have a full midweek fixture list so there’s no Monday Night Football. We start with Southampton hosting the hapless Sheffield United who are nailed to the bottom of the Premier League. In fairness to Sheffield United they don’t deserve to be so far away from everyone else – they have been playing some reasonable football – they just can’t get any results. I think the West Brom game was a classic example of their luck this season; they created an xG of 3.25 and lost 1-0. With only one draw from 11 games morale must be low and as we saw with Watford last season, if things don’t turn around quickly you can play quality football and still go down.

Sheffield United face another tough task today as Southampton have been excellent this season. They started the weekend in 5th place, and even topped the Premier League for a few hours this season. Apart from giving away a two goal lead against Man United have been playing rock solid football and it’s hard to see past them today. My issue from a betting point of view is that the 1.76 is probably a handful of ticks too short given that Sheffield United haven’t been playing that poorly. I much prefer over 2.5 goals at 2.04 given how many goals both sides have had in their games this season.

The Striker Says:
One point win Over 2.5 goals at 2.04 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQsoushu

MATCH STATS

  • Southampton won both Premier League meetings with Sheffield United last season – they’ve not won three league games in a row against the Blades since winning four consecutively against them in the second tier in 1950.
  • Sheffield United have conceded exactly three goals in all three of their Premier League away games against Southampton (D1 L2), with their last top-flight victory at Saints coming in January 1992 (4-2).
  • Southampton have won six of their opening 11 games in the Premier League this season – only in 2014-15 (8) have they picked up more victories in their opening 11 games of a top-flight campaign.
  • Sheffield United are winless in all 11 of their Premier League games so far this season; the last side to fail to win any of their opening 12 Premier League fixtures from the start of a campaign were QPR in 2012-13 (a competition record 16 without a win). In English top-flight history, only Manchester United in 1930-31 have won as few or fewer points after 11 league games (0) as the Blades (1).
  • Southampton have scored at least twice in each of their last six Premier League home games, their longest such run in the top-flight since a run of eight between February-May 1984.
  • Sheffield United have lost 13 of their last 14 Premier League games (D1), scoring just six goals in this run. No side has scored fewer goals than the Blades this season (5).
  • Sheffield United have lost all five of their Premier League away games this season – they last lost their first six on the road in a top-flight campaign back in 1975-76.
  • Southampton currently lead all Premier League teams for defensive actions outside of their own defensive third this season (347), while only Leeds United (8.5) are allowing fewer opposition passes per defensive action in the attacking and middle thirds than the Saints (10.7).
  • Danny Ings has been directly involved in eight goals in eight Premier League games this season (six goals and two assists); the most of any Southampton player. Ings has only failed to score or assist in one of his last seven appearances in the competition, versus West Brom in October.
  • Since the start of last season, Oliver McBurnie has scored more Premier League goals than any other Sheffield United player (7). He netted his first of the season last time out against Leicester, but has never scored in consecutive appearances in the competition.

CRYSTAL PALACE V TOTTENHAM

2.15pm It’s been an excellent time for Spurs. They started the weekend sitting in first and Jose Mourinho was named manager of the month. It’s much deserved too, as he has his side playing some excellent football. Palace come into the game full of confidence after putting five past West Brom last weekend; we have to consider just how poor West Brom have been however, but nonetheless it would have been a nice boost for Palace who have struggled to score over the past two years. Spurs have been creating chances for fun, and it’s likely they will outscore this Palace side.

Palace have had three standout results this season. The 3-1 win over United, 4-1 over Leeds and 5-1 over West Brom. I think everyone can agree they were a little lucky to beat Leeds 4-1, and United played terribly at Old Trafford. Other than those games Palace have been very beatable and with Spurs playing such good football it’s hard to look past them at 1.79. Kane and Son are in red-hot form and if that continues I can only see one result here. Spurs would be an excellent addition to any BETDAQ Multiple today too!

The Striker Says:
Three points win Tottenham to beat Crystal Palace at 1.79 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQcrytot

MATCH STATS

  • Crystal Palace are winless in their last 10 Premier League meetings with Tottenham, with their 1-1 draw in this exact fixture last season ending a run of nine straight league defeats against them.
  • Tottenham have kept a clean sheet in 12 of their last 22 Premier League meetings with Crystal Palace (including eight in the last 10). Of all teams they’ve faced more than 10 times in the competition, they’ve not conceded in the highest % of games against the Eagles (55%).
  • 20 of Tottenham’s last 25 Premier League goals against Crystal Palace have been scored in the second half of games. However, all five of their strikes against them last season came in the opening 45 minutes.
  • Crystal Palace have hit at least four goals in two of their last four Premier League games – 4-1 and 5-1 wins over Leeds and West Brom respectively – having managed that feat just three times in their first 117 games under Roy Hodgson.
  • Spurs manager Jose Mourinho has won 40 of his 63 Premier League London derbies (64%), the highest ratio of any manager to manage at least 20 in the Premier League. However, he is winless in his last two London derbies versus Crystal Palace (D1 L1).
  • Crystal Palace have lost 18 of their last 22 home Premier League matches against teams starting the day in the top-four of the league (W1 D3), with their only win that run coming in Roy Hodgson’s first win as Eagles boss in October 2017 against Chelsea.
  • Crystal Palace striker Christian Benteke scored twice in his last Premier League appearance against West Brom, as many as he’d scored in his previous 31. The Belgian hasn’t scored in consecutive league appearances since April 2017.
  • Crystal Palace have scored more goals in their last two Premier League games with Wilfried Zaha in the starting XI (9) than in their previous 19 without him in the line-up (7), a run stretching back to January 2017.
  • Tottenham duo Son Heung-min and Harry Kane have combined for 11 Premier League goals this season, with only Alan Shearer and Chris Sutton (13 in 1994/95) and Ryan Fraser and Callum Wilson (12 in 2018/19) combining for more in a single campaign. Prior to this season, the most goals two players had combined for in a club’s first 11 matches of a season was Shearer/Sutton for Blackburn in 1994/95 and Thierry Henry/Reyes for Arsenal in 2004/05 (6 goals).
  • Harry Kane has scored 20 goals and assisted 11 in 29 Premier League appearances under Jose Mourinho at Tottenham, averaging a goal or assist every 83 minutes. Since 2004/05, among the 175 players to play at least five league games under Mourinho the only two with a better average goal/assist ratio under Mourinho are Cristiano Ronaldo (one ever 59 minutes) and Gonzalo Higuaín (one every 72 minutes).

FULHAM V LIVERPOOL

4.30pm Liverpool are the shortest price of any side to win in the Premier League this weekend on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. They are currently just 1.36 at the time of writing. You can’t really blame the markets, Fulham have been poor this season. They did manage to pull themselves out of the bottom three with a win over Leicester before losing to Man City however, and perhaps they might be able to stay up this season. Liverpool played out a meaningless 1-1 draw in the Champions League midweek, but they looked in great form thrashing Wolves 4-0 last weekend.

With Liverpool pretty short in the match odds market, we’ll have to look towards the side markets as I’m not keen on lumping on 1.36. Liverpool have had some issues at the back lately after suffering injuries and with Fulham creating chances in their recent fixtures I like a small bet on Both Teams To Score at 1.73. Before losing to Man City, Fulham recent xG figures read; 1.98, 1.90, 1.89 and 1.53. They are creating enough to score against a weakened Liverpool side at the back, but Liverpool should win easily in the end.

The Striker Says:
One point win Both Teams To Score at 1.73 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQfulliv

MATCH STATS

  • None of Fulham’s 14 Premier League home games against Liverpool have finished level, with the Cottagers winning just five to the Reds’ nine.
  • Liverpool have won their last six Premier League meetings with Fulham by an aggregate score of 18-4, since losing both meetings against them in the 2011-12 campaign.
  • Liverpool have scored in both halves in each of their last six Premier League meetings with Fulham – only against Bournemouth (7) have they ever found the net either side of half-time in more consecutive Premier League meetings.
  • Fulham have lost their last six home Premier League matches played on Sunday, with only Aston Villa losing more in a row in home matches on Sundays in Premier League history (seven in a row between 2015 and 2020).
  • Liverpool have won their last 18 Premier League matches against newly-promoted teams – in top-flight history, only Chelsea (27 between October 2002 and November 2006) have had a longer winning run against newly-promoted teams.
  • Fulham boss Scott Parker has lost 15 of his 21 Premier League matches as a manager (71.4%), the second-highest ratio of any manager with 20+ games, behind Roy McFarland (72.7%, lost 16 out of 22). Jürgen Klopp’s last 15 Premier League defeats in charge of Liverpool have been spread over a period of 161 matches.
  • Liverpool manager Jürgen Klopp has won 16 of his 26 away Premier League matches in London (61.5%), the best win ratio of any manager to manage in at least 10 away games in England’s capital city.
  • Fulham’s André-Frank Zambo Anguissa has completed the most dribbles in the Premier League this season (38); Zambo Anguissa has ended on the losing side in 73% of his appearances in the competition (24/33), with only former Sunderland and Ipswich midfielder Tommy Miller losing a higher percentage (76%) among players with 30+ games.
  • Since the start of the 2017/18 season, Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has scored 82 goals in 118 Premier League appearances, the most of any player in that time. However, Salah has scored just one goal in his last 12 games in London, netting against West Ham in January.
  • Liverpool’s Georginio Wijnaldum has played exactly 95 times in both home and away Premier League games – in home games, the Dutchman has scored 23 goals from 143 shots (16.1% conversion), while away from home, he has netted just three times from 85 shots (3.5% conversion).

ARSENAL V BURNLEY

7.15pm Say what you want about Arsenal, but it’s never uneventful! They have had a rollercoaster over the last week, scoring 11 times in the Europa League but losing to Wolves and Spurs, and then prior to that very lucky to draw 0-0 with Leeds. There was a stat going around on Twitter this week that only clubs relegated or promoted this season (apart from Leeds) have created fewer chances than Arsenal have created since Arteta took over. After a bright start with result and some optimism, we now know that it’s the same old Arsenal. It will be interesting to see how they fare against a poor Burnley side here.

Burnley have improved in recent weeks but they still started the weekend in the bottom three. They have managed to get something from three of their last four and we can write off the loss away to Man City. They were never a flashy side and always had to grind out results – we had a 0-0 the last time the sides met at the start of the year and I wouldn’t be keen lumping on Arsenal here at 1.57. I can see Burnley frustrating this Arsenal side and while they might win in the end, under 2.5 goals is worth a small bet for me at 2.0.

The Striker Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.0 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQarsbur

MATCH STATS

  • Arsenal have won each of their last nine home meetings with Burnley in all competitions – only against Stoke (16) and Barnsley (10) are they on a longer current winning run at home.
  • Burnley have lost all six of their away Premier League games against Arsenal, their worst 100% losing record away at a single side in the competition.
  • Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 15 league meetings with Burnley (W11 D4) since a 0-1 home loss in September 1974. In the Premier League, only against Portsmouth (14) have the Gunners played more games without ever losing than they have vs Burnley (12).
  • Arsenal have lost each of their last three Premier League home games – they last lost four consecutive home league games back in December 1959, a run which included a 2-4 defeat against Burnley on the 12th December.
  • Arsenal have won just 13 points in their opening 11 league games this season, their worst start to a season since 1981/82 (12 points). The Gunners have lost six of their last nine games (W2 D1), their worst run across a spell of nine games since April 1995 under Stewart Houston.
  • Burnley have netted just five goals in 10 Premier League games this season, the second time they’ve scored five or fewer after 10 games in a season in the Premier League (also 5 in 2014/15). They are one of two teams to do this on two separate occasions, along with Sheffield United (4 in both 2006/07 and 2020/21).
  • Arsenal striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored more Premier League goals against Burnley than he has any other side in the competition (7 in 5 games). The Gunners captain has netted in all three of his appearances against the Clarets at the Emirates (5 goals).
  • Arsenal go into this match in 15th position, their lowest position as many as 12 league games into a season since December 1983, when they were 16th ahead of their 18th match against Watford, winning 3-1.
  • Only Claudio Ranieri (11) has managed more Premier League games against Arsenal without winning than Sean Dyche (10 – D1 L9). Dyche has beaten 27 of the 29 teams he has faced in the top-flight, failing only against the Gunners and Sheffield United (2 games).
  • Burnley’s Ashley Barnes has ended on the losing side in all seven Premier League games against Arsenal – only three players have played eight times against the Gunners and lost all eight: Kevin Lisbie, Jonathan Fortune and Sun Jihai.

LEICESTER V BRIGHTON

7.15pm A very interesting fixture to end the day from a betting point of view. Leicester have been having a bit of a wobble recently and Brighton have been playing some good football. We should get a decent game here, and for me Leicester are a little short at 2.1. In fairness to Leicester they grinded out a 2-1 win to steady the ship last weekend against Sheffield United, however we all know what type of season they are having with only one point from 11 games. Leicester have been giving away too many chances recently, and you can see where their problems have come from looking at the xG numbers. They gave up an xG of 4.35 against Liverpool!

I like the Leicester lay here because Brighton have been creating enough chances to suggest they can score and make this game a lot closer than odds of 2.1 suggest on Leicester. In Brighton’s last four games their xG figures read; 2.0, 2.22, 1.42 and 1.59. Those are some nice figures and they have played Liverpool along with Southampton and Aston Villa who have been playing well. This is more of a value call rather than a very strong opinion on the match result, but I have to lay Leicester at the odds.

The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Leicester to beat Brighton at 2.1 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQleibri

MATCH STATS

  • Leicester are unbeaten in all six of their Premier League meetings with Brighton (W4 D2), keeping a clean sheet in four of those six matches.
  • Brighton have won just one of their last eight away games against Leicester in all competitions (D3 L4), winning 4-1 in a Championship fixture in April 2014.
  • Leicester have lost four of their last six home Premier League games (W2), as many as they lost in their first 23 at the King Power under Brendan Rodgers (W14 D5) – defeat here would see them equal last season’s tally for home league defeats already in 2020/21 (4).
  • Brighton have won just two of their opening 11 games in the Premier League this season (D4 L5), their joint-fewest at this stage of a top-flight campaign in the club’s history (also two in 1979-80 and 1980-81).
  • Leicester went unbeaten against Brighton in the Premier League last season (W1 D1), while they faced just two shots on target across the two meetings. For the Seagulls, those two shots on target was their joint-fewest against a team in the Premier League last season, along with their total against Manchester City.
  • Brighton have picked up 14 points in their last eight away Premier League games (W4 D2 L2), as many as in their previous 20 on the road (W2 D8 L10).
  • Jamie Vardy’s 90th minute winner for Leicester at Sheffield United was the Foxes’ 10th goal scored in the final 20 minutes of Premier League games this season, the most of any club. It was also their fourth in the final five minutes of games, with only Man Utd (6) and Newcastle (5) scoring more.
  • Since Brendan Rodgers’ first Premier League match in charge of Leicester in March 2019, Jamie Vardy has scored 41 Premier League goals, eight more than any other player in the division in this time. Only Luis Suárez (54) has scored more goals in the Premier League under Brendan Rodgers than Vardy.
  • Brighton’s Neal Maupay has scored four goals in the Premier League this season from an expected goals total of 6.32 – his under-performance of 2.32 is the worst of any striker in the competition in 2020-21.
  • James Maddison registered his first Premier League assist of 2020 against Sheffield United, setting up Leicester’s winning goal with the 46th chance he had created this year. Maddison is looking to assist in back-to-back league games for the first time since August 2019.

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