THE STRIKER: previews Sunday’s Premier League games between BRIGHTON v SHEFFIELD UNITED, TOTTENHAM v LEICESTER, MANCHESTER UNITED v LEEDS and WEST BROM v ASTON VILLA all with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.

The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!

Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.

BRIGHTON V SHEFFIELD UNITED

12pm We have massive day of Premier League action on the last Super Sunday before Christmas! We have big games at the bottom of the table as well as the top, and it promises to be a fascinating day – let’s hope we can find some winners! We start the day with Brighton hosting Sheffield United in the early kick off. As the weeks and losses go by things get more and more desperate for Sheffield United. They have played some reasonable football and don’t deserve to be so far adrift at the bottom of the table, but here we are and they need to quickly try and get some points. That’s easier said than done.

Brighton have played some good football at times and they have been unlucky at times too – especially that loss against Man United and they actually did enough to beat Liverpool too while having to settle for a 1-1 draw. As the weeks go by I feel it’s tougher and tougher for Sheffield United to turn around morale and while it’s not worth a very strong bet, I do feel it’s worth backing the draw here at 3.9. For me Brighton are just a little short at 1.73 and I fully accept Sheffield United have been finding it tough, but I feel the value is with the draw. Of course as we saw when we backed Sheffield United against West Brom at 3.0 the luck doesn’t always go our way. They finished with an xG of 3.25 but lost 1-0!

The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.9 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQbhashe

MATCH STATS

  • Brighton are winless in four league meetings with Sheffield United (D1 L3), since a 2-1 Championship win at Bramall Lane in January 2005.
  • Sheffield United are unbeaten in their last five away league games against Brighton (W3 D2), since a 0-2 loss in the second tier in May 1987. The Blades won this exact fixture 1-0 last season.
  • Brighton are unbeaten in their five Premier League games against sides starting the day bottom (W2 D3). These five games have produced just four goals (3 for Brighton, 1 against), with no side scoring more than once in a game.
  • Sheffield United have won just three of their 20 Premier League games played on Sundays (15%) – of teams to have played at least 20 games on that day, only QPR have a lower win rate than the Blades (5/38 – 13.2%).
  • Of the ever-present Premier League sides in 2020, Brighton have won the fewest home points this calendar year (10), while Sheffield United have won the fewest on the road (6).
  • Brighton have won their final league match before Christmas in just two of their last 12 seasons (D3 L7).
  • Sheffield United are unbeaten in their final league match before Christmas in each of their last 12 seasons (W6 D6) since a 0-1 defeat at Cardiff in December 2007 – last season, their final match before Christmas was a 1-0 away win at Brighton.
  • Brighton are winless in their last 10 Premier League home games (D4 L6) since beating Arsenal 2-1 in June. Only once in their league history have they gone longer without a win at home (12 games between October 1997-February 1998).
  • Sheffield United are winless in their last 12 Premier League away games (D2 L10), losing each of the last eight in a row. The Blades last lost nine consecutive league games on the road between August-November 1975 when also in the top-flight.
  • In their 0-0 draw with Fulham last time out, centre back Lewis Dunk had 56% of Brighton’s total shots (5/9), and 75% of their shots on target (3/4).

TOTTENHAM V LEICESTER

2.15pm Manchester United v Leeds will have a lot of eyeballs later, but this game is the highlight of the day for me. Indeed, it’s my biggest bet of the day on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. I really fancy Spurs to get back to winning ways here and I’d have them odds on instead of the current 2.18 on offer. Leicester might have been sitting in the top four coming into this weekend but their performances haven’t been too impressive. If you took out their 5-2 win over City I think they have been reasonably average – and City aren’t even too great this season either. Of course, Spurs suffered a huge blow losing in the final moments of the game against Liverpool but they have a great chance to bounce back here.

Spurs have been excellent this season. You only have to look at their xG figures to see how many chances they have been creating and how good they are playing. They didn’t deserve to lose against Liverpool either – they actually performed very well. Leicester have had a very up-and-down season. They’ve lost to the likes of Everton, Fulham, Aston Villa and West Ham. I think Spurs will out score them today as they’ll create more and I really like the odds at 2.18. It’s not quite a max bet, but it’s close.

The Striker Says:
Four points win Tottenham to beat Leicester at 2.18 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQttmlei

MATCH STATS

  • Tottenham have won five of their last seven Premier League meetings with Leicester (L2), netting 21 goals across these games.
  • Leicester have won just one of their last nine Premier League away games against Spurs (D2 L6), winning 1-0 at White Hart Lane in their 2015-16 title-winning season.
  • Tottenham have only failed to score once in their last 20 Premier League meetings with Leicester, doing so in a 0-1 home loss in January 2016.
  • Spurs have won their final league match before Christmas in six of their last seven seasons, though they lost 0-2 to Chelsea last season.
  • After picking up just six points in their first nine away Premier League matches of 2020 (W1 D3 L5), Leicester have won 15 points in their last six games on the road (W5 L1).
  • Tottenham have lost only one of their last 11 home games in the Premier League (W7 D3), after losing three of their first eight such matches under José Mourinho in the competition (W5 L3).
  • Leicester boss Brendan Rodgers has faced José Mourinho more times without ever winning in all competitions than he has against any other manager in his career (P7 – W0 D2 L5).
  • Tottenham’s Harry Kane has scored 14 goals in just 10 Premier League appearances against Leicester, more than he’s netted versus any other opponent in the competition. Only Sergio Agüero (15 vs Newcastle for Man City) has scored more goals for a single club against a specific opponent in the competition’s history.
  • Leicester striker Jamie Vardy has scored 18 goals in his last 18 away Premier League appearances. Vardy has scored away Premier League goals against Spurs at White Hart Lane and Wembley and will be the first player to score away goals against an opponent on three different grounds if he scores against them in this match.
  • Tottenham’s Son Heung-min has been directly involved in seven goals in his last seven Premier League appearances against Leicester, scoring four goals and assisting three more.

MANCHESTER UNITED V LEEDS

4.30pm The “War of the Roses” returns. I’m sure the fans will be gutted they can’t be there to see it. I dare imagine how many Leeds could have taken to Old Trafford if given the chance. This should be a fascinating game as Leeds have been very good in the Premier League this season. They really don’t deserve to be as far down the table as they are as they have been creating some excellent chances. Their issues are obvious though – they play an open game and concede chances, and you just can’t do that in the Premier League. Those tactics might work against Man United though as United have been giving away a lot of goals this season.

United got right back into the mix at the top of the table with a 3-2 win over Sheffield United midweek, they have a game in hand and with the others dropping points a win in the game in hand would put them in a brilliant position. The problem for United is you look at games like this and just don’t fancy them. They’re trading 1.74 and that jumps off the page as a lay for me. They have been consistently giving away too many goals this season and they can’t win every game 3-2. Leeds create enough to suggest they could score once or twice, maybe even more, and I have to lay United at the odds.

The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Manchester United to beat Leeds at 1.74 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQmunlee

MATCH STATS

  • Manchester United are unbeaten in their last 15 home league games against Leeds (W9 D6), since a 0-1 loss in February 1981. This is the first league meeting between the sides since a 1-1 draw at Old Trafford in February 2004.
  • Leeds won their last away game against Man Utd in any competition, winning an FA Cup tie 1-0 in January 2010 thanks to a Jermaine Beckford goal.
  • Man Utd have lost just one of their last 13 Premier League games against Leeds (W8 D4), going down 0-1 at Elland Road in September 2002.
  • Manchester United have played more home Premier League games against Leeds without losing than against any other club (P12 W8 D4).
  • Manchester United lost their final league match before Christmas last season to Watford – they haven’t done so in consecutive years since 1995, when the second of these matches was a Christmas Eve loss at Elland Road against Leeds.
  • Manchester United haven’t scored more than one goal in any of their last seven home Premier League matches – in their top-flight history, they’ve only gone longer without netting at least twice on one occasion, doing so in eight games between February-April 1920.
  • Leeds won 5-2 in their last Premier League match against Newcastle United, the first time they have scored five goals in a top-flight match since April 2003 vs Charlton (6-1). This is the third time they have scored five goals in their last league match before facing Man Utd, with the other two also vs Newcastle (5-2 in 1929 and 5-0 in 1966).
  • Leeds manager Marcelo Bielsa has beaten Manchester United twice in his managerial career, winning home and away with Athletic Club in the last 16 of the 2011/12 UEFA Europa League. Bielsa’s Athletic side were one of only two teams Sir Alex Ferguson faced as Man Utd manager more than once while losing each time, along with Borussia Dortmund.
  • Paul Pogba made his senior club debut for Manchester United as an 18-year-old in a League Cup match against Leeds back in September 2011, replacing Ryan Giggs in the second half in a 3-0 victory for the Red Devils.
  • Patrick Bamford has scored nine goals in his first 13 Premier League games for Leeds – a goal in this match would see him become the fastest Englishman to 10 Premier League goals for the Whites, and the fastest by any player since Mark Viduka in November 2000 (9 apps).

WEST BROM V ASTON VILLA

7.15pm We finish the day with West Brom taking on Aston Villa after picking up a surprise point against Manchester City midweek. Villa let us down as we backed them to beat Burnley in a 0-0 draw, we were very unfortunate not to collect however as Villa created an xG of 2.05 to 0.31 in a game they dominated. West Brom were exceptionally lucky to get a draw with City, and they were also very lucky to beat Sheffield United recently too. Aston Villa looks an excellent value bet at 2.04 to end the day.

Even in the recent games Villa have lost they have performed well. The volume of chances they are creating is very impressive and while they might not win every game, like the 0-0 draw with Burnley midweek, I don’t mind backing a side performing as good as Villa are at 2.04 against a poor side like West Brom. It seems to me the best West Brom can hope for is another draw in which Villa dominate but struggle to put the ball in the net. I feel Villa’s luck with even out here this week and they are a very good bet at 2.04.

The Striker Says:
Three points win Aston Villa to beat West Brom at 2.04 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQwbaast

MATCH STATS

  • West Brom are unbeaten in their last eight home games against Aston Villa in all competitions (W3 D5), since a 1-2 Premier League loss in September 2008.
  • Aston Villa have lost two of their last four Premier League meetings with West Brom (W1 D1), as many as they had in their first 16 against them in the competition (W6 D8). This is the first top-flight meeting between the sides since a goalless draw in January 2016.
  • In the Premier League, West Brom have lost their final league match before Christmas in each of their last four campaigns between 2014/15 and 2017/18.
  • Aston Villa have won their final league match before Christmas in just one of their last nine seasons (D3 L5) and haven’t done so in the top-flight since beating West Brom in December 2010.
  • After netting five goals in their first three Premier League games this season (D1 L2), West Brom have scored just five in their subsequent 10 in the competition (W1 D3 L6), and never more than once in a match in that run.
  • Aston Villa have won away from home against one newly promoted team this season, beating Fulham 3-0. They haven’t won two away games against newly promoted teams in a Premier League season since 2008/09, when one of those wins was against West Brom (also vs Hull).
  • Aston Villa have won four of their five away games in the Premier League this season (L1), as many as they had in their previous 42 on the road in the competition (W4 D8 L30). Indeed, the Villans already have more away points this season (12) than they managed in the whole of last term (11).
  • West Brom have the lowest expected goals (xG) total in the Premier League this season (7.5). Their record of 0.6 xG per game in the Premier League this season is a stark contrast to their 1.7 in the Championship last season, the second highest in the division.
  • West Brom are the only side yet to score a headed goal in the Premier League this season, while almost a quarter of their goals conceded so far have been headers (6/26 – 23%).
  • Sam Allardyce has taken charge of more different clubs in the Premier League than any other manager, while West Brom will be his eighth different managerial role in the competition. Allardyce has only lost his first Premier League game in charge of a team on one occasion (W5 D1 L1), losing with Sunderland in October 2015 (0-1 v West Brom).

Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.

Bet via BETDAQ mobile below