PREMIER LEAGUE SUNDAY: The Striker previews NEWCASTLE v ASTON VILLA and ARSENAL v MANCHESTER UNITED both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NEWCASTLE V ASTON VILLA
2pm We have a massive Super Sunday from the Premier League on Betdaq Betting Exchange! There’s no doubt that Arsenal v Manchester United will take all the headlines today in the prime time Super Sunday TV slot later – as it should being the highlight of the weekend – but we also have a cracker to start the day as Newcastle host Aston Villa. This should be a very competitive affair – I’m sure we’ll have some big opinions on the prices here with Newcastle the favourites and Aston Villa so high in the table. Newcastle are trading 2.04 with Aston Villa 3.85 and the draw is 3.95 at the time of writing. Aston Villa have been massively over-performing this season – their average xG created is only 1.38 which is a mid-table figure in the Premier League. Obviously Unai Emery has done superbly well to get as much as possible out of this squad; fans have been calling him the xG killer given the results have been so good versus the xG figures! The reality is Villa are conceding more than they are creating; they are getting away with things massively at the back. Their average xG conceded is 1.44 but their actual goals conceded figure is 1.14. There’s a lot of points there.
Newcastle have been playing better football – they have a better attacking figure with an average xG created of 1.57 – the joint-sixth best in the Premier League this season. They also have a better defensive figure than Villa; their average xG conceded is 1.29. The problem for Newcastle this season is that they haven’t been taking their chances – they did sell their main striker very late in the transfer window though! I’m not surprised to see Newcastle as the favourites here, but you can quite clearly be negative about both sides here. Newcastle haven’t got over the line in enough games this season, they have started to win games lately – the 0-0 last weekend against Wolves last a reminder that they still have issues. I do feel this is a game for small stakes as it’s hard to have confidence in either side. Over 2.5 goals is odds on at 1.7, and while I was thinking we’d see goals here it’s hard to make the case that it should be much shorter – especially given Newcastle have struggled to convert their chances and Villa have gotten away with so much. I feel the 2.04 on Newcastle is a little short all things considered, and this should be a close game – I’m happy with a small bet on the draw.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.95 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLNeAs
ARSENAL V MANCHESTER UNITED
4.30pm We finish Super Sunday with a blockbuster as Arsenal host Manchester United. We started a new era with Michael Catterick taking over at Manchester United last week, and we saw an incredible performance as United beat City 2-0 in the Derby. Obviously that was an excellent start, but we have seen this time and time again from United in recent years. They turn up for the big games, and throw in a woeful performance in games that they “should win” on paper. They could easily set the world alight here, and then lose next week when hosting Fulham. That result gave Arsenal a chance to go nine points clear of Manchester City, but they fluffed their lines in a draw at Nottingham Forest – disappointing considering a win would have meant they had two hands on the title never mind one! Arsenal have been absolutely superb this season though, and it’s no surprise that they come into the game as the odds on favourites. Arsenal are trading 1.62 with Manchester United 6.2 and the draw is 4.3 at the time of writing. The most fascinating thing about this game is how Arteta will set up his Arsenal side – Arsenal were trading at a very similar price to beat Liverpool recently here, and they didn’t really go for it.
They almost played for the draw; not exactly like the best side in the league. Consistency has won the day for Arsenal this season though with everyone else dropping points. United have been sloppy at the back as well, so they will likely get a lot of chances here. Somewhat ironically given they have sacked Ruben Amorim, United have the best attacking figure in the Premier League this season – they have been sloppy at the back but their average xG created of 1.81 is very impressive – better than Arsenal at 1.73. Where Arsenal have excelled this season is at the back – their average xG conceded of 0.89 is the most impressive defensive figure in Europe. It’s hard to see past an Arsenal win here, but the 1.62 doesn’t jump off the page as good value in my opinion – they didn’t really attack the game against Liverpool and United do tend to turn up for the big games. I can see United making this game very open, and while that might not be Arsenal’s style, they can fight fire-with-fire when needed as we saw midweek in the Champions League against Inter Milan. I’m happy to keep stakes low, but I do like goals here – Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.76 and that’s worth backing.
The Striker Says:
One point win Over 2.5 goals at 1.76 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLArMu
