THE STRIKER: previews the FA Cup fourth round matches on Sunday including MAN U v LIVERPOOL at 5pm – all games previewed with with extended stats and recommended BETDAQ bets.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
CHELSEA V LUTON TOWN
12pm What a day ahead in the FA Cup! We have some fascinating markets on BETDAQ Betting Exchange – today has a bit of everything. All eyes will be on Man United v Liverpool later but we have some big teams against small teams and interesting Championship v Premier League games – we have it all! We start with Chelsea hosting Luton, and Frank Lampard will probably be delighted to change competition here. After a very poor run, Chelsea have slipped down to 8th in the Premier League table which is remarkable given their excellent start – they were touted as title challengers at one point! Lampard is definitely feeling the pressure, and it’ll be interesting to see his team selection here.
I’d assume we’ll see a lot of changes for Chelsea given the gulf in class between the sides, but Lampard simply can’t afford a loss and an embarrassment like that. Luton Town are only a mid-table Championship side, and Chelsea can afford to rest their stars and ease past them. The markets expect an easy home win, with Chelsea trading as short as 1.17! Personally given their run I wouldn’t be investing at those odds, Luton tend to try and keep games very tight so I assume they’ll be quite negative today. I don’t see Chelsea running riot either, and under 3.5 goals looks worth backing at 1.7.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.7 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQCheLut
MATCH STATS
- This is the first meeting between Chelsea and Luton since April 1994, when the Blues beat the Hatters 2-0 in the FA Cup semi-final to reach their first final since 1970.
- Luton have been eliminated from seven of their last eight FA Cup ties against Premier League opponents, beating Norwich as a non-league side in January 2013.
- Chelsea have progressed from 51 of their last 53 FA Cup ties against sides from a lower division, losing against Barnsley in March 2008 and Bradford in January 2015.
- Since losing to Chelsea in the 1993-94 semi-final, Luton have reached the FA Cup fifth round in just one of the subsequent 26 campaigns, doing so as a non-league side in 2012-13.
- Chelsea striker Olivier Giroud has been involved in 25 goals in 32 FA Cup appearances in his career (16 goals, 9 assists), including 19 in 20 starts in the competition (12 goals, 7 assists).
BRENTFORD V LEICESTER
2.30pm This is a fascinating clash. It will be very interesting to see what Brendan Rodgers does with his team here. If he rests too many of the first XI then I can see Brentford winning. Brentford are a very solid side. They just missed out on a place in the Premier League when losing in the Championship Playoff Final and they sit in third this season too – indeed they have a game in hand that could push them into second and an automatic spot. They recently beat Newcastle in the third round, however they lost 2-0 to Spurs in the Carabao Cup semi-finals.
I think we’ll see a lot of movement in the market around the team news here what side Leicester decide to field. Also, given the way the FA Cup is viewed these days too – let’s not fully rule out Brentford deciding to rest players too as they push for a place in the Premier League! Given the situation with the team sheets here, it is shrewd to keep stakes to a minimum however I do like the Leicester lay here at 1.75. Brentford are an excellent side and I fully expect them to make this one closer than odds of 1.75 suggest on Leicester.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Leicester to beat Brentford at 1.75 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQBrtLei
MATCH STATS
- Brentford are winless in their last seven meetings with Leicester in all competitions (D1 L6), most recently a 0-1 home loss at this stage of the FA Cup last season.
- Leicester have progressed from all four of their FA Cup ties against Brentford, doing so in January 1936, February 1947, February 1949 and January 2020.
- Brentford have been eliminated from 12 of their last 13 FA Cup ties against top-flight opponents, with a 2-1 victory over Sunderland in January 2006 the exception in this run.
- Since returning to the Premier League in 2014, Leicester have reached the FA Cup fifth round in four of the previous six seasons, failing only in 2015-16 and 2018-19.
- Leicester striker Kelechi Iheanacho averages a goal once every 88 minutes in his FA Cup career (10 goals, 877 minutes), though the Nigerian has scored in just one of his last six appearances in the competition.
MANCHESTER UNITED V LIVERPOOL
5pm Here it is, undoubtedly the highlight fixture of the round. Despite all the history between the sides and the build-up we’re going to have for this fixture – you have to say that the last few meetings between the sides have been very boring! The 0-0 an Anfield last weekend was without much drama, and there wasn’t many chances either. United will say that they had the better chances, and it will be interesting to see the team sheets here given the situation in the Premier League. Liverpool lost yet more ground when losing 1-0 at home to Burnley on Thursday night and they have really thrown away the league in recent weeks. The sides they have dropped points against have been very surprising and they just haven’t played like they can.
United went back to the top of the table with a win midweek after going behind against Fulham. I keep saying they aren’t playing like Champions, however they keep winning and that’s a credit to them. I take on board the fact we’ll probably get a more open game here in Cup football, but it’s hard to ignore the draw at 3.75 given how the two sides play and there wasn’t much between them. We’ll likely see changes here, but that will probably reduce the goal chances and I wouldn’t rule out a 0-0 again. The 3.75 offers a lot of value on the draw.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.75 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQUtdLfc
MATCH STATS
- After winning seven consecutive FA Cup ties against Liverpool between 1948 and 1999, Manchester United have lost two of their last three against the Reds in the competition.
- Liverpool have been eliminated from the FA Cup by Manchester United more than they have any other opponent in the competition’s history (9, including final defeats).
- Manchester United are unbeaten in their last seven home games against Liverpool in all competitions (W3 D4) since a 0-3 loss in March 2014. They last had a longer unbeaten run against Liverpool at Old Trafford between 1990-2000 (12 games).
- Since a 1-1 draw with West Ham in the 2015-16 quarter-final, Manchester United have won their last seven FA Cup home games without conceding a single goal.
- Liverpool have only reached the FA Cup fifth round in one of manager Jürgen Klopp’s five previous seasons at the club, doing so last term before being eliminated by Chelsea.
EVERTON V SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY
8pm We finish the day with Everton hosting Sheffield Wednesday. Everton will be fully expecting to win here and the market has them pretty short at 1.37. Sheffield Wednesday haven’t played since the 9th of January, however they have put a few wins together and they should come into this game to give it a go with some confidence. I say some confidence because they are still sitting in second last in the Championship. Those wins have got them back into touching distance but they still have a lot of work to do if they are going to stay up. It will be interesting to see what side Everton name here as they are only two points behind Liverpool in fourth. They are bang in the mix for European football.
I would expect a few changes for Everton, and while I wouldn’t have much interest in taking the 1.37 as a single, it’s definitely something to put in BETDAQ Multiples today. Both sides have been generally keeping games tight recently and I can’t see Everton running riot here either. Sheffield Wednesday will probably set up negatively and I’m surprised to see under 2.5 goals at odds on. Indeed, the 2.2 offers a lot of value as I’d have it marginally odds on looking at the stats.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.2 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQEveWed
MATCH STATS
- This will be the 20th FA Cup match (including replays) between Everton and Sheffield Wednesday, the third most played match in the competition’s history. Everton have progressed from the last five ties, most recently a fourth round meeting in 1989-90.
- In all competitions, Sheffield Wednesday have lost just one of their last nine away games against Everton (W5 D3), though this is their first visit since a 1-1 draw in the Premier League in March 2000.
- Everton are looking to reach the FA Cup fifth round for the first time since 2015-16; the Toffees have progressed from 11 of their last 12 FA Cup ties against sides from a lower division.
- Sheffield Wednesday have been eliminated from 16 of their last 17 FA Cup ties against Premier League opponents, with the exception being a 1-0 win at Brighton last season.
- Sheffield Wednesday’s Callum Paterson has been involved in five goals in his last five appearances in the FA Cup (3 goals, 2 assists).
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