THE STRIKER: previews the Premier League games on Sunday with extended stats and recommended BETDAQ bets. The action starts at midday with CHELSEA v BURNLEY.

The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!

Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.

CHELSEA V BURNLEY

12pm Another action packed Sunday in the Premier League with some fascinating fixtures! It’s been an action packed week for Chelsea too. They have sacked Frank Lampard and I was surprised they weren’t able to beat Wolves at home midweek. There was a little bit of drama on social media with some players after the Lampard news and I felt he had lost the dressing room looking at that. I thought we’d see a different Chelsea side, but they didn’t create much and it was a pretty boring 0-0 draw. Burnley will fancy their chances of getting a result here after their good recent run of results.

This is a fascinating start to the day. I have to say after seeing the way Chelsea played midweek against Wolves, who have been very average this season, I’m not keen at all on the 1.38 on Chelsea. Burnley are pretty average themselves, indeed they were very lucky to beat Aston Villa. xG finished 2.98 to 0.79 in Villa’s favour. However, Burnley were decent away to Liverpool not long ago and had a confidence boosting win against Fulham in the FA Cup. Chelsea may come out on top, but I can’t have them at the odds here after their week and I feel the 1.38 is worth a small lay to start the day.

The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Chelsea to beat Burnley at 1.38 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQchebrn

MATCH STATS

  • Chelsea have lost one of their 13 Premier League games against Burnley (W9 D3), losing 2-3 on the opening day of the 2017-18 season at Stamford Bridge as reigning champions.
  • Burnley have only won six points in 13 Premier League matches against Chelsea (W1 D3) but five of those six have been earned at Stamford Bridge, via a win (3-2 in 2017/18) and two draws (1-1 in 2014/15 and 2-2 in 2018/19).
  • None of the 13 Premier League meetings between Chelsea and Burnley have been goalless at half-time – this is the only Premier League fixture played more than 10 times to see a goal scored in the first half of each meeting.
  • Chelsea are winless in three home league games, last having a longer league run without a victory at Stamford Bridge in May 2016 under Guus Hiddink (five games).
  • Chelsea netted 29 goals in their first 14 Premier League games this season (2.1 per game), but have scored just four in their subsequent six (0.7 per game). The Blues haven’t netted more than once in these six games, last having a longer league run of failing to score at least twice between October-December 2015 (7).
  • Burnley are looking to win three consecutive Premier League games for the first time since April 2019. Meanwhile, the last time they won three consecutive top-flight games all against sides starting the day in the top half of the table was in March 1965.
  • Burnley came from behind to win a Premier League game for the first time this season in their last match against Aston Villa. The 3-2 victory was the first time they’d scored as many as three goals in 30 Premier League games, since beating Bournemouth 3-0 in February 2020.
  • In their 0-0 draw with Wolves last time out, Chelsea recorded 78.9% possession and 832 successful passes, the Blues’ highest figures in a Premier League home match since we have this data available (2003-04).
  • Burnley striker Jay Rodriguez has scored in four of his seven starts against Chelsea in all competitions, netting four goals, though only one of those was scored at Stamford Bridge – for Southampton in a 3-1 defeat in December 2013.
  • Of all keepers to have played at least twice this season, only Ederson (61%) has kept a clean sheet in a higher share of their games than Chelsea’s Édouard Mendy (50% – 8/16).

LEICESTER V LEEDS

2pm Another fascinating fixture! Leeds got back to winning ways on Tuesday against Newcastle but they didn’t create as much as they usually do and gave away an xG of 1.44. Considering how poor Newcastle have been that was a slightly worrying performances. We landed a very nice bet on Leeds, but I feel that was because Newcastle have been so poor rather than Leeds being superb. They seem to have dropped their level in recent weeks, and this is a great chance for Leicester to get back to winning ways after their 1-1 draw with Everton midweek.

Leicester had been on a winning run prior to that game against Everton, and in fairness to them they were on top in that game too. There wasn’t much between the sides as I thought, but Leicester had an xG of 1.15 to 0.65. They have been playing some good football lately, and were impressive against Chelsea here recently. If Leeds were in better form I feel they could get a result here, or at least score a few times, but I think this is an ideal time to back Leicester. Leeds giving up an xG of 1.44 to Newcastle is a worry, and with Leicester scoring goals they can take advantage of Leeds little dip in form going forward.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Leicester to beat Leeds at 1.86 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQleilee

MATCH STATS

  • Leicester City are looking to record a league double over Leeds for the first time since the 2004/05 campaign when the sides were in the Championship.
  • Leeds United’s only previous Premier League match at the King Power Stadium was back in September 2003, losing 4-0 under Peter Reid. Their only away league win against Leicester at the King Power was in November 2011 in the Championship, a 1-0 win.
  • Leicester are looking to win four consecutive games against Leeds in all competitions for only the second time, also doing so between September 1997 and November 1998, although their last three wins have all been in different seasons: 2013/14, 2017/18 and 2020/21.
  • Leicester are unbeaten in seven Premier League games (W4 D3), with only Manchester City on a longer current run without defeat in the competition (11).
  • Leeds are the only side yet to have had an away draw in the Premier League this season, with the Whites winning five and losing five of their 10 games on the road. Indeed, none of their last 16 Premier League away games has ended level (W6 L10) since a 1-1 draw with Manchester United in February 2004.
  • Leicester have won their last two Premier League home games, as many as they had in their previous seven (W2 D1 L4). The Foxes last had a longer league winning run at the King Power Stadium between August-December 2019 (7).
  • Leicester have scored more goals from the penalty spot than any other side in the Premier League this season (8), while no side has conceded more penalty goals than Leeds (6).
  • Leicester’s Harvey Barnes has been involved in five goals in his last six Premier League games (3 goals, 2 assists), more than in his first 13 appearances this season (3 goals, 1 assist).
  • All six of Raphinha’s Premier League goal involvements for Leeds this season have come away from home (3 goals, 3 assists), with the Brazilian scoring and assisting in the Whites’ 2-1 win at Newcastle last time out.
  • After scoring six goals in his first six Premier League games for Leeds, Patrick Bamford has scored just four in his last 13 in the competition.

WEST HAM V LIVERPOOL

4.30pm Another very interesting fixture – it really is a cracking Sunday in the Premier League! A win for West Ham here would see them go ahead of Liverpool into the top four, which is a remarkable effort considering David Moyes joined the club to keep them in the Premier League! They have been excellent this though; they have been creating a lot of chances and have been one of my favourite teams to back, offering a lot of value at times. Liverpool got back to winning ways against Spurs on Thursday night in a very impressive performance. That was more like it from that after a run of five Premier League games without a win, and although the Hammers have been great this season, if Liverpool play like that again they will win here.

Liverpool only allowed Spurs an xG of 0.11 and created 2.39 themselves. They are very impressive figures and the type of figures you usually see from this Liverpool side. It will be very interesting to see how they perform here – do they continue or go back to playing under-par like previous weeks. I feel the match odds on BETDAQ Betting Exchange are very fair here with Liverpool 1.8 – that looks about right. I can see plenty of goals here, West Ham have been great going forward and Liverpool like to play an attacking game too; they’ve conceded their fair share recently too. Overs looks the value for me at around 1.7.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.7 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwhulfc

MATCH STATS

  • West Ham United are winless in nine Premier League matches against Liverpool (D2 L7), their worst such run against them since going 10 without a win between September 2000 and January 2007.
  • Liverpool lost their last three matches at Upton Park in all competitions but are unbeaten in all four of their games at London Stadium (W3 D1).
  • Liverpool could become the second team to go unbeaten in their five Premier League away games at London Stadium, after Manchester City (W4 D1).
  • The only stadium at which Liverpool have played more top-flight league matches without losing than London Stadium (4) is Wimbledon’s Plough Lane, playing five games there between 1986/87 and 1990/91 without defeat (W4 D1).
  • West Ham have won each of their last six games in all competitions – only twice in their history have they won seven in a row, doing so between November/December 1985 and January/February 2006.
  • Liverpool have only lost one of their last 31 Premier League games played on a Sunday (W21 D9), with that defeat coming at Aston Villa earlier this season (2-7). Each of the Reds’ last three league games on Sunday have finished level.
  • West Ham’s first two Premier League wins this season were 4-0 against Wolves and 3-0 against Leicester. Since then, the Hammers have won eight more league games, with each of these victories being by a one-goal margin.
  • Michail Antonio has scored more goals against Liverpool in the Premier League than any other player for West Ham (4 in 6 appearances). All four goals have come against Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool.
  • Since the 2017/18 season, Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has scored in six of his seven Premier League games against West Ham, netting seven goals.
  • Tomas Soucek’s seven Premier League goals have been worth 10 points to West Ham so far this season. The last player whose goals earned the Hammers more points in a single Premier League campaign was Dean Ashton in 2007-08 (11).

BRIGHTON V TOTTENHAM

7.15pm We finish the weekend with Brighton taking on Spurs and I’m sure a lot of punters will have to double take when they see the Spurs price. They are trading at 2.4 to beat a Brighton side who sit 17th in the table. In fairness, Spurs lost Harry Kane to injury against Liverpool midweek so I can understand the drift on them. Kane is a massive part of the Spurs XI and they will certainly be worse without him. The 2.4 is still tempting however, and I’m happy to have a small bet on the away win. Stakes have to be kept small without Kane and Spurs were also poor against Liverpool midweek – but Brighton are a couple of levels below this Spurs side.

Brighton were very unlucky not to beat Fulham midweek in an 0-0 draw. They finished the game with an xG of 2.37 and perhaps out of all sides towards the relegation zone they will feel the most hard done by. They have to convert their chances though at the end of the day and they have had some very poor performances too. As I said, this is a game for small stakes and it will be interesting to see how Spurs get on without Kane. They have done OK without him at times though, in the Europa League for example, and at 2.4 I feel it’s worth taking a chance on them this weekend. Let’s see how they perform with a view to next week, but the 2.4 is worth taking.

The Striker Says:
One point win Tottenham to beat Brighton at 2.4 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQbrittm

MATCH STATS

  • Brighton and Hove Albion have lost five of their seven Premier League matches against Spurs (W1 D1), with their only win coming at the Amex Stadium last season.
  • Spurs have won 10 of their 15 top-flight matches against Brighton (67%) – their second-best win ratio against a team they’ve played more than 10 times in the top-flight, behind only Swansea City (13/18, 72%).
  • Brighton are winless in their last 14 Premier League home games (D7 L7). The last side to have a longer such run were Derby County in the 2007-08 campaign (16 games).
  • Tottenham have lost just one of their last 12 away Premier League games (W6 D5), with that defeat coming at Liverpool in December.
  • Brighton have taken four points from their last two Premier League games (W1 D1), as many as from their previous eight in the competition (W0 D4 L4). The Seagulls are looking to keep three consecutive Premier League clean sheets for the first time since October 2018.
  • Tottenham haven’t lost any of their last 12 Premier League games against sides starting the day in the bottom four (W6 D6), with their last defeat coming at home to Newcastle in August 2019.
  • Coming into this matchday, no team has had more goalless draws in the Premier League this season than Brighton (3). Indeed, since their promotion to the division in 2017, the Seagulls have had more Premier League games finish 0-0 than any other club (14).
  • Coming into this matchday, Tottenham have scored more goals in the opening 15 minutes of Premier League games than any other side this season, while no side has conceded fewer in this timeframe this term than Brighton (1).
  • Spurs boss José Mourinho has lost both of his away Premier League matches against Brighton, losing in 2017/18 and 2018/19 with Man Utd – Mourinho has never lost three consecutive away league games against an opponent in his entire managerial career.
  • Harry Kane has scored five goals for Spurs against Brighton in all competitions, with these goals coming in five different matches. In his Tottenham career, against no side has he scored more goals without ever netting more than once in a match (also 5 vs Crystal Palace).

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