THE STRIKER: previews Sunday’s Premier League games between SOUTHAMPTON v BRIGHTON, LEICESTER v SHEFFIELD UNITED, ARSENAL v SPURS and MAN U v WEST HAM all with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.

The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!

Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.

SOUTHAMPTON V BRIGHTON

12pm We have another excellent day in the Premier League with some fascinating markets! We have some very open betting heats on BETDAQ Betting Exchange, and hopefully we can find some winners. The pressure is really on Brighton after Fulham’s recent momentum and they find themselves in a relegation battle. It’s actually remarkable how they have ended up where they are given how well they have played. The xG table puts them in fifth, and they have been remarkably unlucky in recent weeks. They created xG figures of 2.44, 3.03 and 3.28 in a draw with Aston Villa and two losses against Crystal Palace and West Brom. They should have picked up a draw against Leicester too, but they have another good chance to pick up three points here.

Southampton broke their losing run with a smooth 2-0 win over Sheffield United but then lost to Man City midweek. To be fair that was expected, and they will say that they were unlucky to lose all those games looking at the xG figures. I almost say this every week now, but I have to back Brighton at the odds. They are playing their best football of the season and while they might play superb and lose again – they simply have to keep playing like this because the results will come eventually. The 2.72 is too big on Brighton given their form and this seems a good time to meet Southampton too.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Brighton to beat Southampton at 2.72 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQsoubha

MATCH STATS

  • Southampton are unbeaten in all seven of their Premier League meetings with Brighton (W3 D4), more than they’ve faced any other side without defeat in the competition.
  • All three of Brighton’s Premier League away games against Southampton have been draws, with the Seagulls opening the scoring in two of those and coming from two goals down in the other.
  • Southampton are looking to complete their first league double over Brighton since the 2005-06 campaign when the sides were in the Championship.
  • Southampton have kept a clean sheet in all five of their Premier League home wins so far this season. When they’ve conceded at least once at St Mary’s this term, they’ve won none, drawn one and lost six of their seven matches.
  • Southampton’s seven Premier League games on a Sunday this season have produced 29 goals (16 for, 13 against) – at 4.1 per game, it is the second-highest ratio for a team in Sunday games this season, behind only Aston Villa (4.3).
  • Only Southampton themselves have dropped more points from winning positions in the Premier League than Brighton this season (17), with the Seagulls losing against Leicester last time out despite taking an early lead.
  • Brighton have lost each of their last three Premier League games, last losing four in a row in April 2019 under Chris Hughton.
  • Brighton’s Graham Potter has only lost four consecutive league games as a manager once previously, doing so with Östersunds FK in the Swedish Superettan across two seasons between October 2013 and April 2014. He has never lost four in a row in the same season.
  • Southampton’s Danny Ings has scored in each of his last three south coast derbies in the Premier League, netting against Brighton twice and Bournemouth once. The only player with more goals in matches of this kind (featuring Bournemouth, Brighton, Portsmouth & Southampton) than Ings (4) is Callum Wilson (6).
  • Brighton’s Adam Lallana scored his first Premier League goal in 503 days last time out against Leicester. He could become the 24th different player to score both for and against Southampton in the Premier League, though he hasn’t found the net in back-to-back league games since December 2016.

LEICESTER V SHEFFIELD UNITED

2pm You get the feeling that this is a big game for Leicester. They got back to winning ways last weekend against Brighton, scoring late to come back and win 2-1 from 1-0 down. That was needed given the progress of Chelsea in recent weeks, and now I feel they really need to win this game in their bid for a Top Four finish. Sheffield United are a poor side, and they are there for the beating. Although Leicester have a cushion on the likes of West Ham and Everton, I feel Chelsea will overtake them and to lock in a Top Four finish they need to winning games like this. Leicester have been creating enough to beat this Sheffield United side, and even when Sheffield United beat Aston Villa recently they were very lucky to do so, conceding an xG of 2.19.

There’s no doubt that Sheffield United will give Leicester a lot of chances, and the 1.57 on Leicester is too big to turn down. I would have them shorter than 1.5 – I know they haven’t been filling backers will confidence lately and crashed out of the Europa League too, but they are playing well enough to beat Sheffield United. Brendan Rodgers got it wrong when he rested players for the Europa League, and in general they have been creating enough to win games in the Premier League. Sheffield United have conceded xG’s like 2.1, 2.19, 3.0 and 2.39 recently – Leicester should win here.

The Striker Says:
Three points win Leicester to beat Sheffield United at 1.57 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQleishu

MATCH STATS

  • Leicester City have won all three of their Premier League meetings with Sheffield United, netting exactly two goals each time.
  • Sheffield United are winless in their last seven league meetings with Leicester (D2 L5) since a 3-0 home win in April 2008 in the Championship.
  • Leicester have won a league-low 36% of their Premier League points in home games this season (19/53). Only Crystal Palace in 1997-98 (33%) have ever won fewer than 36% of their points in a Premier League season at home.
  • Sheffield United have scored just 16 Premier League goals this season, with only Derby in 2007-08 (13), Aston Villa in 2014-15 (15) and Huddersfield Town in 2018-19 (15) scoring fewer at this stage of a Premier League campaign.
  • Leicester’s six home Premier League defeats this season have all come with them starting the day in the top four – in top-flight history, only Spurs in 1984-85 (7) have had more home defeats in a season when starting the day of the match in the top four of the division.
  • Sheffield United have lost 22 of their 28 Premier League games this season (W4 D2) – in only two top-flight campaigns have they lost more: 23 in 1933-34 and 26 in 1975-76, finishing in bottom place on both occasions.
  • Leicester striker Jamie Vardy has either scored (2) or assisted (1) a goal in all three of his Premier League meetings with Sheffield United, netting a 90th minute winner in the reverse fixture at Bramall Lane in December.
  • Sheffield United are the only current Premier League club that Leicester manager Brendan Rodgers has a 100% win ratio against (3 wins in 3), and one of only three overall along with Cardiff City and Huddersfield Town.
  • Among goalkeepers to start at least 25 away Premier League games, Sheffield United’s Aaron Ramsdale has the lowest clean sheet ratio (6%, 2/32). Ramsdale hasn’t kept a clean sheet in any of his last 23 away starts, with only John Ruddy (24, Aug 2011 – Oct 2012) and Russell Hoult (26, Feb 2003 – May 2005) having longer runs without an away clean sheet.
  • Leicester’s Kelechi Iheanacho is looking to score in three consecutive Premier League appearances for the first time – his appearance against Brighton was only the 13th time in 132 games he has played at least 80 minutes in a match, netting 10 goals in those 13 appearances.

ARSENAL V TOTTENHAM

4.30pm It’s North London Derby time for the prime TV slot on Super Sunday! Either club will be happy with their performance this season, but it is Arsenal who should be more worried for the future. They have slipped down to mid-table and at one stage they were close to a relegation battle! That lasted about as long as Spurs title challenge, and while Spurs had a major blip mid-season they appear to have turned things around recently. That’s a huge positive with Jose Mourinho – has this been the only time he turned things around rather than losing the dressing room? They have a decent chance of a Europa League spot now again. Both sides had a good win on Thursday in the Europa League, and it’s no surprise to see an open market in what is usually a great game for the neutrals.

Arsenal could only manage a 1-1 draw with Burnley last weekend in a game where we backed them. However, they didn’t play badly and finished with an xG of 2.86. Looking at their xG figures it really shows that they aren’t solid at the back yet and if they come into pressure they will still be the “same old Arsenal” and it’s for this reason that I like Spurs today. Spurs come into the game in excellent form after a run of confidence boosting results. They have scored 15 goals in five games and if their 1-0 win against Fulham they should have scored more – plus Fulham went on to beat Liverpool afterwards. I can fully understand why we have an open market, but I would have Spurs as marginal favourites rather than Arsenal and I’m happy to take the 2.9.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Tottenham to beat Arsenal at 2.9 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQarsttm

MATCH STATS

  • Arsenal are winless in their last five meetings with Tottenham in all competitions (D2 L3) – they’ve never gone six without a win against their north London rivals before.
  • Tottenham are looking to win three consecutive league games against Arsenal for the first time since October 1974, while victory at the Emirates would give them their first league double over the Gunners since 1992-93.
  • Arsenal have lost just two of their last 35 home league games against Spurs (W19 D14), going down 1-3 in May 1993 and 2-3 in November 2010.
  • Only Everton vs Liverpool (24) has finished as a draw more often than Arsenal vs Tottenham in Premier League history (23). Meanwhile, the north London derby has seen both teams find the net more often than any other fixture in the Premier League (38 games).
  • Arsenal have lost just one of their last seven home league games (W3 D3), though this was in their last such game against Manchester City. The Gunners have lost five home league games already this season, last losing more in a single campaign back in 1994-95 (6).
  • Having won their first four away league games this season, Tottenham have won just two of their subsequent nine on the road in the Premier League (D3 L4). Meanwhile, having scored 11 goals in their opening two away league games this season (5-2 v Southampton, 6-1 v Man Utd), Spurs have netted just 10 in their last 11 away from home.
  • No Arsenal manager has ever lost their first three north London derby matches (as Mikel Arteta could do with defeat here), while no Tottenham manager has ever won their first three such games (as José Mourinho could do).
  • Tottenham striker Harry Kane is the all-time highest goalscorer in Arsenal v Tottenham matches in all competitions, netting 11 goals for Spurs against the Gunners in total.
  • Arsenal strikers Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Alexandre Lacazette have each scored nine Premier League goals this season, and could become the fifth/sixth players to reach double figures in each of their first four Premier League campaigns for the club, after Ian Wright, Dennis Bergkamp, Thierry Henry and Olivier Giroud.
  • Tottenham’s Gareth Bale has had a hand in six goals in his last four Premier League appearances (4 goals, 2 assists). The Welshman has also netted five Premier League goals against Arsenal in his career, more than against any other side in the competition.

MANCHESTER UNITED V WEST HAM

7.15pm We finish Super Sunday with a cracker as Man United host West Ham. United would have been gutted to concede such a late goal in the Europa League on Thursday against AC Milan in a game that they deserve to win. That gives them a much tougher job next week, but they can’t relax here as West Ham have been excellent this season. United look a little short for me here at 1.93. They have had four draws in their last five games and I know one of those was a meaningless game against Real Sociedad, they were very poor against Crystal Palace. The win against Man City will always grab headlines, but United tend to over-perform in the big games these days.

West Ham have been one of my favourite sides this season because they have performed so well and they have also offered a lot of value in the markets. We landed a nice bet on them to beat Leeds on Monday night and they actually played extremely well against Man City prior to that game despite losing 2-1. The Hammers have been excellent going forward and they have been creating a host of chances all season. United have sometimes struggled at Old Trafford this season and I feel they should be odds against here. They have conceded enough goals to suggest the Hammers can score and make life very difficult for them, and the 1.93 looks a great lay to finish an excellent day in the Premier League!

The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Manchester United to beat West Ham at 1.93 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQmunwhm

MATCH STATS

  • Manchester United are looking to complete their first league double over West Ham since 2013-14, when they were managed by current Hammers boss David Moyes.
  • West Ham are winless in their last 12 Premier League away games against Manchester United (D3 L9), since a 1-0 victory on the final day of the 2006-07 campaign.
  • West Ham have led Manchester United at half-time in each of their last three Premier League games, though have gone on to win just one of those (D1 L1). They are one of four sides to lead the Red Devils at the interval in three consecutive Premier League matches (Arsenal in 1999 to 2000, Chelsea in 2003 to 2004 and Liverpool in 2000 to 2001), with no team doing so for four games in a row.
  • Manchester United have netted 15 goals in their last three home Premier League games (W2 D1), scoring at least three times in each game. They last scored 3+ goals in four home games in a row between May and September 2011 under Sir Alex Ferguson.
  • West Ham are looking to become the fourth London team to win at Old Trafford in the league this season, after Crystal Palace, Spurs and Arsenal. The only previous league campaign in which four London sides have won away to Man Utd was in 1986-87 (Charlton, Chelsea, West Ham and Wimbledon).
  • Manchester United are looking to keep four consecutive league clean sheets under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer for the first time, last doing so in January 2018 under José Mourinho.
  • Former Man Utd boss José Mourinho won 6-1 at Old Trafford with Tottenham earlier this season – victory for David Moyes’ West Ham here would be just the third occasion of two former managers winning a Premier League away game against a former side in a season, with Glenn Roeder and Harry Redknapp winning at West Ham in 2006-07, and Kenny Dalglish and Roy Hodgson winning at Blackburn in 2011-12.
  • West Ham manager David Moyes has never won a Premier League away game against Manchester United, drawing four and losing nine of his 13 visits to Old Trafford with Everton, Sunderland and West Ham.
  • Man Utd’s Bruno Fernandes has scored in each of the first 11 calendar months he’s made an appearance in the Premier League (February 2020 – March 2021), becoming the first player to achieve that feat since Charlie Austin between August 2014 and January 2016.
  • West Ham defender Craig Dawson has scored three Premier League goals in 12 games this season, only netting more in 2015-16 and 2016-17 for West Brom (4). Dawson has ended on the winning side in 67% of his Premier League appearances for the club (8/12), the best ratio of any player to play 10 times for the Hammers.

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