THE STRIKER: previews Sunday’s Premier League games between WEST HAM v ARSENAL and ASTON VILLA v TOTTENHAM with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
WEST HAM V ARSENAL
3pm It might be a shortened Premier League fixture list with the FA Cup Quarter Finals taking centre stage this weekend, but what a Super Sunday we have! We start the day at a later time than usual, but what a cracker. West Ham host Arsenal in a London derby and I’m fascinated to see who comes out on top here. West Ham have been excellent this season, and they can claim that they are genuine Top Four contenders looking at the table. We all know how poor Arsenal have been this season, but they are playing their best football of the season at the moment – even in their 1-0 loss against Olympiakos on Thursday in the Europa League they created an xG of 2.61 and they had a two goal advantage after the first leg anyway.
I’m not surprised to see a very open market on BETDAQ Betting Exchange because Arsenal do come here in good form. I noted their xG against Olympiakos above, but they also played very well in their 1-1 draw with Burnley too – finishing with an xG of 2.86. The Arsenal form is there for all to see but I still wouldn’t have them as favourites here given the way West Ham have played this season. The Hammers have come up short against both Manchester clubs recently, but they have offered a lot of value this season and they have been excellent going forward. For all that Arsenal are playing well – this will be a big test for them against a side that attacks well. I expect a very close game, but an entertaining affair too, and for me West Ham are the value at 2.96. I wouldn’t put anyone off the Arsenal lay, and perhaps that might prove better to have the draw on your side too, but the 2.96 on West Ham is too big for me to ignore.
The Striker Says:
Two points win West Ham to beat Arsenal at 2.96 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwhuarl
MATCH STATS
- West Ham have won just three of their 24 Premier League home games against Arsenal (D8 L13). The Gunners are the only side the Hammers have won as many as two more away games (5) as they have home games (3) in the Premier League.
- Arsenal have completed the Premier League double over West Ham on 11 previous occasions, more than they have against any other side in the competition.
- West Ham have lost more Premier League games against Arsenal than they have versus any other side in the competition (32). Meanwhile, Arsenal have won more Premier League away games against West Ham than they have versus any other side (13).
- This is just the fourth time West Ham have faced Arsenal in a Premier League match while above them in the table, with the Gunners unbeaten in the previous three – 0-0 in September 2005, 3-1 in October 2012 and 2-1 in December 2014.
- No side has won more points in Premier League London derbies this season than Arsenal (13), with the Gunners already picking up more points in their six such games this season than they managed in eight games last term (10).
- West Ham have lost two of their last three Premier League games (W1), as many as they had in their previous 14 (W8 D4). However, the Hammers haven’t lost consecutive league games since their opening two matches this season, the second of which came at the hands of Arsenal.
- West Ham have won five of their last six Premier League home games (L1), including each of the last three in a row. They last won four consecutive top-flight home games back in May 2002 under Glenn Roeder.
- Jesse Lingard has scored four goals in his six league appearances for West Ham, including in each of his last two at the London Stadium. Lingard has scored four goals in seven starts against Arsenal in all competitions, against no side has he netted more in English football.
- Arsenal striker Alexandre Lacazette has scored four goals in his last five Premier League games against West Ham, netting in each of his last two. The Frenchman has opened the scoring in the last two meetings between the London sides.
- Alexandre Lacazette is Arsenal’s top scoring Premier League player so far this season with 10 goals. He’s also scored in six of his last eight league London derby matches, with the Gunners winning all four such games in which he’s scored this term.
ASTON VILLA V TOTTENHAM
7.30pm Another excellent fixture. Despite only two fixtures today, they are two intriguing games. It’s been another eventful week for Spurs on the Jose Mourinho rollercoaster – say what you want about Mourinho, but it’s never dull! After a good run of form that saw them go back up the table and score plenty of goals, they have crashed back down to earth with a 2-1 loss against Arsenal and then got dumped out of the Europa League on Thursday with a 3-0 loss against Dinamo Zagreb. That loss is always going to grab headlines, and while they were very unlucky not to score – they really should have put the tie to bed in extra time. It will be interesting to see Mourinho’s reaction, as it always is, and this is a very tricky tie against an Aston Villa side who have been impressive at times this season.
Although much was made about the 3-0 loss against Dinamo, I would actually be more worried about the performance against Arsenal. Spurs created an xG of 2.01 against Dinamo and were just unlucky not to score. They only managed 0.44 against Arsenal though, and they must do better here. Villa come into this game with only one win in their last six, but they haven’t been playing too bad. They were very unlucky to lose against Sheffield United, creating an xG of 2.19 in a 1-0 loss. It’s fair to say that their level has dropped looking at their xG figures, and they aren’t creating the same volume of chances as they did early in the season. We could see a very cagey game here and while the draw is very tempting at 3.5, I like under 2.5 goals at 1.86 – it’s hard to see anything other than a very close game and with both sides struggling to create some chances at the moment I expect a low scoring affair.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.86 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQavltot
MATCH STATS
- In all competitions, Aston Villa have lost 11 of their last 12 matches against Tottenham Hotspur, winning the other in April 2015 under Tim Sherwood.
- Since a 1-2 defeat at Villa Park on New Year’s Day 2008, Spurs are unbeaten in nine away Premier League games against Aston Villa (W7 D2), winning the last five in a row; Spurs’ only longer away winning run against an opponent in the top-flight was against the Villans between 1950 and 1956 (7).
- Aston Villa have only lost six consecutive home Premier League matches against an opponent on two previous occasions – versus Manchester United (2003-2007) and Liverpool (2011-2019).
- This is the latest first meeting between two sides in a Premier League campaign since 2005-06, when Birmingham and Bolton’s first match against each other came on April 4th.
- Aston Villa averaged 2.1 goals-per-game in their first 13 Premier League games this season (27 goals in total), scoring at least three times on six occasions. Since then, the Villans have netted just 12 goals in 14 Premier League games and never more than twice in a match.
- Tottenham have lost nine of their 28 Premier League games so far this season – manager José Mourinho has never suffered as many as 10 defeats in a single league campaign in his career.
- Tottenham have lost four of their last five away league games (W1), as many as they had in their previous 20 on the road (W8 D8). Each of Spurs’ last eight away league wins has come against placed 13th or lower in the table, last beating a side in the top half on the road back in December 2019 (2-1 vs Wolves).
- Aston Villa are averaging 5.1 shots on target per game in the Premier League this season, their highest in a single top-flight campaign since 2002-03 (5.2).
- Tottenham’s Gareth Bale netted his first league hat-trick of his senior club career the last time he faced Aston Villa, doing so in a 4-0 victory at Villa Park in December 2012.
- Tottenham’s Harry Kane has scored five goals in his last three Premier League appearances against Aston Villa, netting braces in his last two matches against the Villans.
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