SUNDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Sunday’s three Premier League games with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats. BURNLEY V LEEDS, TOTTENHAM V WATFORD and WOLVES V MANCHESTER UNITED.
BURNLEY V LEEDS
2pm We have a fascinating Super Sunday ahead as we head into the International Break! We also have three very interesting markets on BETDAQ Betting Exchange so I won’t waste any time and get straight into my thoughts. We start the day with Burnley hosting Leeds in an important game for both sides. Leeds have had a tricky start to the season having had to play Manchester United and Everton, and if they want to improve on their finishing position from last season then they need to start winning games like this. While Leeds managed a draw from one of their games, Burnley have lost two from two. They were unlucky to lose against Brighton as they created an xG of 1.99 when losing 2-1 but they were outplayed by Liverpool – that’s nothing unexpected though in fairness.
Leeds impressed me last season, but the underlining numbers suggest they have made a slow start to the season. While Burnley were completely outplayed by Liverpool, they did play very well here against Brighton – I know Leeds beat Burnley 4-0 here towards the end of last season, but looking at the xG figures Leeds were flattered by the result. Leeds are rightly favourites, but the 2.32 is a little too short for me based on what I’ve saw from Burnley at the start of the season and I’m happy to lay the away side here. Burnley have always been good at grinding out results, and they can grind Leeds down here and pick up their first point(s) of the season.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Leeds to beat Burnley at 2.32 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBurlee
MATCH STATS
● Burnley have won three of their last four home league games against Leeds (L1), though that one defeat did come in this exact fixture last season (4-0).
● Of the 38 opponents Leeds have faced at least 50 times in English league football, only against Coventry (53.8%) do they have a higher win rate than they do against Burnley (51.7% – won 31/60).
● Just one of the last 22 league meetings between Burnley and Leeds has finished level (1-1 in August 2015), with Leeds winning 15 of these to Burnley’s six.
● Leeds United won 4-0 in their first Premier League away game at Turf Moor (in this fixture last season), inflicting Burnley’s joint-heaviest defeat at home in the competition under Sean Dyche – their previous home defeats by four goals came against Chelsea and Everton in 2018.
● Burnley have lost each of their last five Premier League games at Turf Moor, while they have only suffered a longer run of home league defeats once in their history (seven consecutive home defeats in February 1890).
● Leeds United haven’t drawn a game away from home in the Premier League since February 2004 (1-1 v Manchester United) – in 20 away games in the competition under current manager Marcelo Bielsa, they have won 10 and lost the other 10.
● Burnley have scored just 15 league goals at Turf Moor since the start of last season (20 games). Excluding promoted and relegated teams, they are the lowest-scoring team in home games since the start of 2020-21.
● Since returning to the Premier League in 2020-21, Leeds United have allowed just 9.3 opposition passes per defensive action – the lowest average of any team in the competition.
● Chris Wood is Burnley’s all-time top scorer in the Premier League with 46 goals, however he’s only scored once in his eight league appearances against former club Leeds United. That goal came while playing for Millwall in the Championship in November 2012, while he’s failed to score in each of his five league games against them since then.
● Since Raphinha made his first Premier League start for Leeds United in November 2020, no player has made more assists in the competition than the Brazilian (9 – joint-most in this period, along with Kevin De Bruyne and Bruno Fernandes).
TOTTENHAM V WATFORD
2pm After starting their season on a high with a win over Aston Villa, Watford were brought back down to earth with a 2-0 loss against Brighton last weekend. Despite that, they will look at this game as a chance to cause an upset given all the drama at Spurs at the moment. I feel like that is a massive issue for Spurs and Arsenal these days – teams just don’t fear them anymore. Spurs have won their two opening games but those results don’t tell the full story. If you look at the underlining numbers you would be rightly worried about Spurs this season. They may have beaten Man City 1-0 but they conceded an xG of 2.41 and then they conceded an xG of 1.82 against Wolves when winning 1-0. Sides are creating a lot against them, just not taking their chances but that won’t last for long.
The big question today is can Watford create enough chances, and take them, to get a result. On paper, a lot of football fans will feel this will be a straightforward win for Spurs but I don’t see it that way. Spurs look a little short for me at 1.44. Their performances just don’t reflect odds like that. My worry about Watford is they didn’t create much at all away to Brighton last weekend, and while I’m keen to take on Spurs looking at their underlining numbers – Watford are hardly the best side to do that with. I fully take on board that argument but I still feel the 1.44 is worth laying for a small bet – watching Spurs at the moment is like Arsenal at the start of last season, they are winning but the performances aren’t there and a losing run is only a matter of time.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Tottenham to beat Watford at 1.44 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQTotwat
MATCH STATS
● Spurs have lost just one of their last 16 league games against Watford (W9 D6), going down 2-1 at Vicarage Road in September 2018.
● After winning their first three away league games against Tottenham between 1982 and 1985, Watford have since lost nine of their last 10 league visits to Spurs (D1).
● Spurs have lost just one of their last 27 home league games against promoted sides (W24 D2), with that loss coming against current boss Nuno Espírito Santo’s Wolves side in December 2018.
● Tottenham are looking to win each of their first three league games for just the second time in the last 12 seasons (also 2018-19), while they’ve never won their first three games of a league campaign without conceding in their Football League history.
● Watford have lost each of their last seven Premier League away games, failing to score on five occasions in that run. They last had a longer losing run on the road in the competition between December 1999 and May 2000 (10 games).
● Watford have won just two of their last 22 away league games in London (D4 L16), and are winless in 10 in the capital (D3 L7) since back-to-back victories over West Ham and Crystal Palace in 2018-19.
● Tottenham have won both of their opening two Premier League games this season, despite having the second lowest possession figure among all 20 teams after two games so far (38.25%).
● Tottenham’s Son Heung-min has scored five goals in nine Premier League appearances against Watford – only against Southampton (9) has he scored more in the competition.
● Tottenham’s Dele All scored his first Premier League goal in 533 days against Wolves last time out, ending a run of 19 top-flight appearances without a goal. He last scored in consecutive league games back in December 2019.
● Nuno Espírito Santo is looking to become just the second manager to win each of his first three league games in charge of Tottenham Hotspurs in the club’s history, after Arthur Rowe did so in August 1949. Spurs were in the second tier when Rowe first took charge, with no manager ever winning their first three top-flight games in charge of the Lilywhites.
WOLVES V MANCHESTER UNITED
4.30pm A fascinating fixture to end the weekend! Manchester United came up short away to Southampton last weekend but they were very unlucky not to win. They absolutely bossed the first half and should have scored two goals easily. That’s the thing about the Premier League though, if you don’t take your chances you get punished and that’s what happened – they went into HT 1-0 down! Southampton managed to hang on for a draw and although United played well, you just look at fixtures like this one away from home and question can they win. That being said, they matched the unbeaten away run of Arsenal’s “invincibles” with that draw against Southampton!
Wolves have lost their opening two fixtures, but they have actually been playing very well. They were very unlucky to lose both games, and you can easily make the argument that they could have even beaten Leicester. They created an xG of 1.66 to 0.55 against Leicester and then 1.82 to 1.57 against Spurs. I know United have been playing some very good attacking football, but they still have issues at the back and with Wolves creating these chances, I feel they will get a result here. You always have a question mark about United winning these type of away games, while the draw is a tempting bet at 3.75 I’d have United closer to 2.0 here and I’m happy to lay them at 1.77. It’s my most confident bet of the day.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Manchester United to beat Wolves at 1.77 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQWolmun
MATCH STATS
● Wolves lost this exact fixture 2-1 on the final day of the 2020-21 season – they’ve not lost consecutive home league games against Manchester United since December 1967.
● Manchester United have lost just one of their last eight Premier League meetings with Wolves (W4 D3), going down 2-1 at Molineux in April 2019.
● Manchester United are unbeaten in their last 27 Premier League away games (W17 D10) – if they avoid defeat here they will set a new record for longest unbeaten away run in English Football League history.
● Wolves have lost each of their last five Premier League games, scoring just one goal in the process. They’ve also lost five of their last seven home league games (W2), as many as they had in their previous 20 at Molineux (W9 D6).
● In the first two matchdays of the Premier League season, only Liverpool (46) attempted more shots than Wolves (42). They also had the sixth highest expected goals tally (3.2) of the 20 teams, yet they are still looking for their first league goal under Bruno Lage
● This will be Ole Gunnar Solskjær’s 100th Premier League match in charge of Manchester United (W52 D28 L19). Of the eight previous managers to reach the milestone for the Red Devils in the top-flight, only Ernest Mangnall (54) won more of his first 100 in charge than the Norwegian.
● Ole Gunnar Solskjær will become the ninth manager to take charge of 100 top-flight games for Manchester United in this match. Of the previous eight, only Matt Busby and Tommy Docherty won their 100th game in charge, with five of those managers losing their milestone match, including Alex Ferguson in April 1989.
● Paul Pogba has already assisted five goals for Manchester United in the Premier League this term; the most ever by a player after two games of a season in the competition. His assist against Southampton last time out saw him equal Cristiano Ronaldo’s tally for the Red Devils in the Premier League (34).
● Only Michail Antonio (11) has had more shots in the Premier League than Wolves’ Adama Traoré (10) so far this season, though he’s yet to find the net this term. Indeed, the Spaniard has scored with just two of his last 74 shots in the competition.
● Mason Greenwood has scored in both of Manchester United’s opening two games of the 2021-22 Premier League season, netting once against Leeds United and Southampton. He could become just the second teenager to score in his team’s opening three games of a Premier League campaign, after Robbie Fowler for Liverpool in 1994-95.
