THE STRIKER: previews Sunday’s Premier League games – all previewed with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats. The action starts at 12pm with Leicester hosting West Ham and Southampton against West Brom.

The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!

Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.

LEICESTER V WEST HAM

12pm We have a very busy day in the Premier League on Sunday as we have an International Break coming up. The fixtures have been staggered for TV in recent weeks, but we have some clashes today as we couldn’t have Monday Night Football. We start with a cracker as Leicester host West Ham. Both sides have started the season in good form; however West Ham’s results don’t tell the full story. They lost against Newcastle and Arsenal, but they actually performed very well against Arsenal – having an xG of 2.32 compared to 1.33. They should prove a tough test for Leicester.

Brendan Rodgers men shocked everyone last weekend with a 5-2 win over Manchester City, with Jamie Vardy being the star man. They have started the season in superb form, with 12 goals in three games – all pretty much evenly spaced out too with three against West Brom, four against Burnley and five against Manchester City! Could we see six today? Leicester are an appealing bet at 1.71 but I like over 2.5 goals at 1.7 here – only one tick in the difference. Both sides have some excellent xG numbers and I can only see goals to start the day.

The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.7 with BETDAQ Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQleiwhm

MATCH STATS

  • Leicester won both Premier League meetings with West Ham last season, including a 4-1 victory in this exact fixture. They last won more consecutively against the Hammers in league competition between April 1965-December 1966 (5).
  • West Ham have won just one of their last 11 Premier League meetings with Leicester (D4 L6), winning 2-0 away in May 2018.
  • West Ham have won just four of their 23 away Premier League games under David Moyes (D5 L14), although one of those was a 2-0 win at Leicester in May 2018.
  • Leicester are looking to win their first four games to a league season for the first time in their history. Their haul of 12 goals so far is the most after three games of a Premier League season since 2011-12 (Man Utd 13, Man City 12).
  • London sides haven’t won any of their last eight Premier League visits to Leicester (D2 L6), with Crystal Palace the last side to beat the Foxes away in the competition (4-1 in February 2019).
  • West Ham have won just one of their last 11 Premier League away games (D2 L8), winning 4-0 at Norwich in July.
  • West Ham have kept just three clean sheets so far in the Premier League in 2020, fewer than any other side to have played in both campaigns. All three of the Hammers’ shutouts have been in 4-0 wins (vs Bournemouth, Norwich and Wolves).
  • Leicester have already scored five penalty goals in the Premier League this season, as many as they had in each of the 2017-18, 2018-19 and 2019-20 campaigns. They last netted more from the spot in their title-winning 2015-16 season (10).
  • Ayoze Pérez was directly involved in four of Leicester’s six Premier League goals against West Ham last season, assisting both goals in their 2-1 win at the London Stadium and scoring twice in their 4-1 home win against them.
  • No player has scored more Premier League goals this season than Leicester’s Jamie Vardy (5). However, last season’s golden boot winner has scored in just two of his last 12 home games in the competition (4 goals in total).

SOUTHAMPTON V WEST BROM

12pm West Brom must have thought they were dreaming at half-time against Chelsea last weekend with a 3-0 lead, however they were woken up and brought back down to earth fast as the game finished 3-3! They benefitted from some massive Chelsea errors, and you’d have to say that they will struggle to stay in the Premier League based on what we have seen thus far. It’s still early days though! They were poor against Leicester and Everton, and the reality is they have conceded 11 goals in three Premier League games.

It was very important for Southampton that they beat Burnley last weekend after losing their two opening fixtures – although they had to play Spurs. In fairness to Southampton, all three games have been tight looking at xG they have just came out on the wrong end of two – although they can’t complain about the Spurs result. With Southampton generating decent chances and West Brom conceding too many, I’m happy to back a home win here at 1.82.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Southampton to beat West Brom at 1.82 with BETDAQ Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQsouwba

MATCH STATS

  • Southampton have won each of their last three Premier League meetings with West Brom – only against Bradford, Crystal Palace and Hull (all four) have they won more consecutive games in the competition.
  • The away side has won four of the last five meetings between Southampton and West Brom in all competitions (L1), though Saints have been responsible for three of those victories.
  • Southampton have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their Premier League meetings with West Brom (9/16), their best ratio against any current Premier League side.
  • Southampton’s last 18 Premier League games against promoted sides has seen them have a run of five consecutive draws, five consecutive defeats and now eight consecutive victories.
  • Since the start of last season, Southampton have won just 21 points from 20 Premier League home games, fewer than any other ever-present side. These 21 points account for just 38% of the total of 55 won by Saints in this time.
  • West Bromwich Albion have conceded three goals in the second half of each of their three Premier League games this season – no team has ever shipped 3+ goals after half- time in four consecutive matches in the competition.
  • West Brom have conceded 3+ goals in all three of their Premier League games this season, and could become just the second team to ship as many in each of their first four in a single campaign after West Ham in 2010-11.
  • West Brom have picked up just two victories in their last 19 away games at Premier League level (W2 D4 L13), although both wins have come in the last four attempts. Meanwhile, the Baggies haven’t scored more than two goals in a Premier League away game in any of their last 84 such matches, since a 3-4 defeat to Aston Villa in January 2014.
  • Since the start of last season, Southampton’s Danny Ings has scored the opening goal in a league-high 12 Premier League games. However, just three of these games have been at St Mary’s.
  • West Brom’s Matheus Pereira has been involved in nine goals in his last 10 league games, scoring three and assisting six more. The Brazilian has had a hand in three of the Baggies’ five Premier League goals this season (1 goal, 2 assists).

ARSENAL V SHEFFIELD UNITED

2pm As expected Arsenal fans we’re brought back down to earth with a 3-1 loss to Liverpool last weekend. It was great to land out first Max Bet of the season. Arsenal’s xG numbers have been impressive, and although they meet a Sheffield United side who have lost their three opening games – I still feel that Arsenal haven’t really improved and results will reflect that eventually.

Sheffield United arrive here having lost their opening three, and they’ve yet to score too. In fairness to them, they deserved a draw (at the least) against Leeds, and deserved a draw against Aston Villa too but they have just had tight games go against them. They are creating chances, just not taking them. If they don’t take their chances against Arsenal they will be punished though as Arsenal usually generate a few goals at home. I think Arsenal will come up short against a mid-table side soon and everyone will say “same old Arsenal” but I think they are worth having a small investment on today at 1.59. That’s just a few ticks too big against this Sheffield United side.

The Striker Says:
One point win Arsenal to beat Sheffield United at 1.59 with BETDAQ Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQarsshu

MATCH STATS

  • Arsenal’s last victory over Sheffield United in the Premier League was back in September 2006 (3-0) – they are winless in their three meetings in the competition since (D1 L2), with their only goal in this run coming in the 1-1 draw at the Emirates last season.
  • Sheffield United are looking to go four consecutive top-flight games without defeat against Arsenal for the first time since March 1965 (five games – W2 D3).
  • At home, Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 10 league meetings with Sheffield United (W8 D2) since a 0-1 loss in August 1971.
  • Sheffield United are unbeaten in their last nine league games in London (W4 D5), the Blades’ longest ever run without defeat in the capital.
  • After losing all three of their home league games in December 2019, Arsenal are now unbeaten in their last 10 at the Emirates (W8 D2). Arsenal have only failed to score in three of their last 72 home league games, with all of those coming against Man City.
  • Sheffield United have only lost each of their first four games to a league season twice before, in 1995-96 (second tier) and 1966-67 (top-flight). They’ve never previously failed to score in each of their opening four league games in a single campaign before.
  • Sheffield United have lost each of their last six Premier League games – only once in their history have they lost more consecutive league games, losing seven in a row between August-September 1975 in the top-flight.
  • Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 40 Premier League home games against sides starting the day in the relegation zone (W38 D2) since a 0-1 loss against West Ham in April 2007. Arsenal’s current streak is the longest ever such unbeaten run in the competition.
  • Alexandre Lacazette has scored in each of Arsenal’s three league games this season – the last player to score in the Gunners’ first four games in a league season was Olivier Giroud in 2013-14.
  • Sheffield United are the only top-flight English side Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has faced with Arsenal and not scored against in all competitions.

WOLVES V FULHAM

2pm Fulham start Matchday 4 at the bottom of the Premier League table having conceded ten goals in three games. They shouldn’t have conceded four against Leeds and just came out on the wrong end of a thriller, but they were brushed aside by Arsenal and more worryingly Aston Villa last weekend. Villa only survived on the final day of the season but they kept Fulham to an xG of 0.82 at home while scoring three goals. Wolves may have lost two of their opening three games, but they’ll be confident of winning here.

It’s fair to say that Wolves have issues of their own after losing 4-0 to West Ham last weekend. You can dismiss the loss against Manchester City as that was expected, and they started their season with a win. Clearly they need to improve from last weekend but they have enough firepower to beat this Fulham side who keep giving away goals. Wolves should be shorter than 1.5 for me and I’m happy to take the 1.54.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Wolves to beat Fulham at 1.54 with BETDAQ Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwolful

MATCH STATS

  • Wolves have lost just one of their last 10 league meetings with Fulham (W7 D2), going down 0-2 at Craven Cottage in the Championship in February 2018.
  • Fulham haven’t won away against Wolves in the league since April 1985 (4-0 in the second tier), drawing three and losing nine at Molineux since.
  • Wolves have lost their last two Premier League games, last losing more consecutively in November 2018 (3). They’ve conceded seven goals across these two defeats, more than they had in their previous 11 Premier League games combined (6).
  • Wolves are unbeaten in their last seven Premier League home games against promoted sides (W4 D3) since a 0-3 loss against QPR in September 2011.
  • Since January 2019, Fulham have conceded at least twice in 17 of their 21 Premier League games (W4 D0 L17). The Cottagers have conceded 3+ goals in each of their last four in the Premier League.
  • Excluding games played on the opening day of the season, this will be Fulham’s 32nd consecutive Premier League match when starting the day in the relegation zone. It’s the longest such run in the competition since Sunderland’s 36 in 2016-2017.
  • No team has conceded more fouls than Fulham in the Premier League so far this season (48), with the Cottagers also receiving a league-high 10 yellow cards so far.
  • Fulham have conceded 10 Premier League goals so far this season, but have an expected goals against value of just below five, meaning based on the quality of chances they’ve faced, they’ve shipped around five goals more than the average team would be expected to.
  • Since the start of last season, only Mohamed Salah (149) has had more shots in the Premier League than Wolves’ Raúl Jiménez (128). Meanwhile, of the eight players to have had 100+ shots since the start of last season, only Raheem Sterling (19.4%) has a better shot conversion rate than the Mexican (14.8% – 19 goals from 128 shots).
  • Despite playing just 129 minutes together so far this season, Fulham’s Kenny Tete has created four goalscoring opportunities for Aleksandar Mitrovic in the Premier League – only Harry Kane to Son Heung-min (6 in 219 minutes) and James Rodríguez to Richarlison (5 in 254 minutes) have created more for a specific teammate so far this term.

MANCHESTER UNITED V TOTTENHAM

4.30pm This is undoubtedly the highlight of the weekend and we have a fascinating fixture ahead! You can pick your headline from anything really – both managers are under pressure for difference reasons. United were extremely lucky to beat Brighton last weekend, and that would have been a terrible start to the season for them if it wasn’t for a 100th minute penalty – it’s not often you see scenes like that. While Spurs were on the wrong end of a terrible VAR decision, but they performed well against Newcastle, with xG saying they “won: 3.49 to 1.07 – and 0.8 of that for Newcastle was a penalty.

Spurs have had a very busy weekend, after their draw with Newcastle they had to plat Chelsea in the Carabao Cup and then in a Europa League qualifier on Thursday night. Jose changed things up but clearly selection is an issue with such a busy schedule. He’ll have his best XI today though and I think they can get a result here. United have put in two poor performances on xG now and while Spurs aren’t the most reliable side, United are simply too short here at 2.0.

The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Manchester United to beat Tottenham at 2.0 with BETDAQ Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQmunttm

MATCH STATS

  • Man Utd are unbeaten in their last three Premier League meetings with Spurs (W2 D1), having lost four of their previous six against them in the competition before this (W2).
  • Tottenham’s last six top-flight away wins against Manchester United have all come under different managers, in a run stretching back to Bill Nicholson in March 1974 (also Keith Burkinshaw in 1976, Terry Venables in 1989, Andre Villas Boas in 2012, Tim Sherwood in 2014 and Mauricio Pochettino in 2018).
  • None of the last 14 Premier League meetings between Man Utd and Spurs at Old Trafford have ended level, with the Red Devils winning 11 to Spurs’ three.
  • Manchester United have only lost both of their first two home games to a league season four times previously (1930-31, 1948-49, 1969-70 & 1986-87). Indeed, on the last occasion this occurred (1986-87), the Red Devils’ two defeats both came to London clubs (West Ham United & Charlton Athletic) – they lost to Crystal Palace in this season’s opener.
  • Tottenham have kept just two clean sheets in their last 27 Premier League away games, with both of those shutouts coming last season against teams who were eventually relegated (0-0 v Watford, 0-0 v Bournemouth).
  • After scoring five goals from just nine shots against Southampton in their second league game this season, Tottenham scored just once from 23 shots in their last match against Newcastle, eventually shipping a stoppage time equaliser from the penalty spot.
  • Manchester United have found the net in each of their last 15 Premier League games, the longest current run of all current 20 sides in the competition.
  • Spurs boss José Mourinho is winless in his last six away league games against sides he’s previously managed (D2 L4).
  • Bruno Fernandes has been involved in 17 goals in his 16 Premier League games for Manchester United (9 goals, 8 assists). His 100th minute penalty strike against Brighton last time out is the latest Premier League winning goal since exact goal-times are available (2006-07).
  • Tottenham’s Harry Kane has provided more assists than any other Premier League player so far this season (5). Indeed, only in 2016-17 (7) has Kane ever provided more assists in a single top-flight campaign.

ASTON VILLA V LIVERPOOL

7.15pm We finished the weekend with the Champions Liverpool away to Aston Villa. We’ve seen a much improved Aston Villa side since they returned from lockdown. They have really fixture their issues at the back – that allowed them the chance to stay in the Premier League, and now they are playing with a new confidence. They impressed against Fulham, and grinded out a tough 1-0 win against Sheffield United – they probably wouldn’t have won that game this time last year. Playing Liverpool is clearly a different situation however!

Liverpool have already had to play Chelsea and Arsenal, but are ahead of Man City thanks to them losing to Leicester. They have been ultra-impressive, and it’s hard to see who stops them this season again. This fixture in November 2019 produced a dramatic 2-1 Liverpool win in the final moments where Villa lead until the last minutes of the game. It was perhaps only after Liverpool started to believe it was “there year.” Liverpool are clearly a great side, but I’m going to chance a small lay on them here against an in-form Villa side. The 1.36 is just a few ticks too short for my liking and it’s worth a small investment from a value point of view.

The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Liverpool to beat Aston Villa at 1.36 with BETDAQ Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQavlliv

MATCH STATS

  • Aston Villa have lost their last five Premier League meetings with Liverpool by an aggregate score of 3-15. They last lost more league games consecutively against the Reds between 1964 and 1975 (7).
  • Liverpool have lost just one of their last 19 Premier League away games against Aston Villa (W13 D5), winning their last six visits since a 0-1 loss in May 2011.
  • Aston Villa are winless in their last 15 Premier League games against reigning champions, losing the last 12 in a row (D3). Their last such victory at home was back in December 1998 against Arsenal, with the Villans drawing seven and losing 11 at Villa Park since.
  • Only Manchester United (16 at both Aston Villa and Everton) have won more away Premier League games against a single opponent than Liverpool have at Aston Villa (14). Indeed, Aston Villa v Liverpool has seen more away wins overall (20 – 14 by Liverpool, six by Villa) than any other Premier League fixture.
  • Aston Villa haven’t won each of their first three league games in a single campaign since 1962-63. Meanwhile, they haven’t kept a clean sheet in each of their opening three league games since 1900-01.
  • Liverpool won each of their opening four Premier League games in both 2018-19 and 2019-20, and could become the first team in top-flight history to do so in three consecutive campaigns.
  • Coming into this weekend’s games, Liverpool have had at least 17 more shots than any other Premier League side this season (61). Aston Villa faced a league-high 608 shots in the Premier League last season, though are facing just 10 shots-per-game this season compared to 16 in 2019-20.
  • Aston Villa are on the longest current unbeaten run of any side in the Premier League (6 – W4 D2), with the Villans looking to win three consecutively in the competition for the first time since April 2010.
  • Jack Grealish has scored two goals in his last three Premier League games for Aston Villa, as many as in his previous 19. He’s looking to score in back-to-back games in the competition for the first time since October 2019.
  • Liverpool’s Sadio Mané has scored six goals in his six Premier League games against Aston Villa, only scoring more against Crystal Palace (9) and Arsenal (7) in the competition. This includes the fastest ever Premier League hat-trick, which he scored for Southampton against the Villans in May 2015, with just 2 minutes and 56 seconds separating his three goals.

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