SUNDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Sunday’s Premier League games including CHELSEA v MAN U at 4.30pm. All games previewed with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
BRENTFORD V EVERTON
2pm It’s been a busy week for sides in Europe, and that means we have a bumper Sunday in the Premier League with five fixtures. It’s a shame that four have to kick off at the same time, and it should be a very busy afternoon on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. Brentford host Everton to start the action and we have an interesting market here. Brentford will be pleased with their start to the Premier League, but I’m not sure the market is correct here. There’s no doubt that Brentford have been impressive, but they look too short here at 2.34. Everton look too big at 3.5, however I feel the value option is to lay Brentford and have the draw on your side too. After making a very fast start to the season, Brentford’s results have dropped off quite a bit recently. They are still creating chances, so I can understand why football fans would want to back them here, but they are also conceding a lot more chances too.
Everton come into the game on a poor run too, however they have had a tough run of fixtures. They’ve had to play Man United, West Ham, Wolves, Spurs and Man City recently – with a shock 5-2 loss at home to Watford really raising eyebrows. They had the lead twice in that game and fell apart in the final 15 minutes – they would be under less pressure if they managed a win there. I know Everton have been conceding quite a few chances too, but in fairness they have been creating them too – for example they conceded an xG of 2.24 to Wolves but created 1.98 – they could have drawn the game 2-2 but lost a close game. I fully respect Brentford because they have been a breath of fresh air in the Premier League, but the market is wrong here in my opinion. I expect a very close game, and I would have the odds a lot closer together too. I’m happy with a Brentford lay from a value point of view.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Brentford to beat Everton at 2.24 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBreeve
MATCH STATS
● Brentford have lost three of their last four league meetings with Everton (W1), with this their first such game since a 6-1 away loss in the second tier in February 1954.
● This is the first meeting between Brentford and Everton in any competition since September 2010, in a League Cup match. Following a 1-1 draw at Griffin Park, the Bees progressed 4-3 on penalties.
● Everton have won five of their last six Premier League games in London (L1), as many as they had in their previous 32 visits to the capital in the competition.
● Just 31% of Brentford’s Premier League points this season have come in home games (4/13), the lowest ratio in the competition so far this term. Indeed, the Bees are winless at home since beating Arsenal 2-0 on the opening day of the season.
● Having kept three clean sheets and conceding just two goals (0.4 per game) in their first five Premier League games, Brentford have conceded in each of their last seven in the competition (15 in total – 2.1 per game).
● Everton had won 13 points from their first six Premier League games this season (W4 D1 L1), leaving them in fifth place and just one point off top spot. However, since then the Toffees have earned just two more points (D2 L4), fewer than any other Premier League side over the last six games.
● No side have conceded more Premier League goals in the first half of games than Brentford this season (11), with the Bees shipping the highest share before half-time (65%). However, only Aston Villa (3) have scored fewer goals in the opening 45 minutes of games than Everton (4) this term.
● Rico Henry has scored in consecutive Premier League games for Brentford, having netted just twice in his first 120 league appearances for the Bees. Indeed, 33% of his goals in English league football have come in the last two games (2/6).
● As Liverpool manager, Everton’s Rafael Benítez lost just one of his 36 Premier League games against promoted sides (3% – W26 D9). Since then, the Spaniard has lost seven of his 18 such games (39% – W5 D6), including a 5-2 home loss against Watford in his last such game.
● Only Emmanuel Dennis (6) has been shown more yellow cards than Everton’s Richarlison (5) in the Premier League this season, with the Brazilian picking up six bookings in his last nine appearances in the competition. Indeed, since he joined the Toffees in 2018, Richarlison has been booked more than any other forward in the Premier League (22).
BURNLEY V TOTTENHAM
2pm We have another very interesting market here as Burnley host Spurs. The big question here for everyone is do you back or lay Spurs at 2.12? Burnley are going to start this game in the bottom three, but they haven’t played that badly this season. I’m not saying that they deserve to be higher, because realistically they don’t, but they have been creating some decent chances. Perhaps because they have been playing a more open game than usual, that is costing them at the back. We’re used to Burnley just grinding out results rather than doing anything flashy, but at times this season they have created xG figures of over 2 which is quite rare for Burnley to be fair. We all know the multiple issues Spurs are going through at the moment, and even Conte came out during the week and said there is a lot of work to do with the squad. He basically said the squad isn’t good enough in a roundabout way – something we all know but it’s unusual to hear that sort of stuff from a new manager. It will actually be interesting to see how the players react here.
Spurs lost 2-1 midweek in the Europa Conference League but I’m happy to basically ignore that as they haven’t respected that competition for the whole season. They were terrible in the first half against Leeds last weekend, but in fairness to them they bounced back in the second half and put in a good display. It’s always hard to know with Leeds because Leeds are so poor at the back, but Spurs finished the game with an xG of 2.48. That was the first time this season that they have finished with an xG of over 2. That being said, Leeds do give away a lot of chances. I want to see more from Spurs before I believe they have changed. I feel Conte probably underestimated the amount of work needed here, and Burnley can get a result today. This is a game for small stakes, but I’m happy to be against Spurs at the odds.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Tottenham to beat Burnley at 2.12 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBurtot
MATCH STATS
● Burnley have won just one of their last 12 Premier League games against Spurs (D3 L8), winning 2-1 at Turf Moor in February 2019.
● Tottenham have only failed to score in one of their 14 Premier League games against Burnley, a 0-0 draw in April 2015. Meanwhile, they’ve kept eight clean sheets against the Clarets in the competition.
● Burnley have won just one of their last 15 league games (D6 L8), keeping just one clean sheet in that run. However, the Clarets are unbeaten in four in the Premier League (W1 D3), scoring more goals in this run (9) than they had in their previous 13 combined (8).
● Only Everton (7) have won more points from losing positions in the Premier League this season than Tottenham (6), with Spurs winning against Leeds last time out having trailed 1-0 at half-time.
● Only Norwich (120) have had fewer shots than Tottenham (124) in the Premier League so far this season. Indeed, Spurs’ record of 10.3 shots per game is their lowest on record in a single Premier League campaign (since 1997-98).
● Burnley have scored a league-high six headed goals in the Premier League this season, while Tottenham are one of three sides yet to have scored a header so far this term.
● Burnley keeper Nick Pope has conceded 14 goals against Tottenham in the Premier League, only against Manchester City (17) and Chelsea (15) has he conceded more. He’s also yet to keep a clean sheet in his five Premier League games against Spurs, only against Leicester City (7), Manchester City and Chelsea (both 6) has he played more against an opponent without keeping a clean sheet.
● Each of Burnley’s six Premier League goals against Tottenham under Sean Dyche have been scored by either Chris Wood or Ashley Barnes (both 3), with the only game the pair both scored in being their last league win against Spurs in February 2019 (2-1).
● Tottenham’s Harry Kane has either scored or assisted in each of his last six Premier League games against Burnley (7 goals, 3 assists), having scored just once in his first four Premier League appearances against the Clarets.
● Son Heung-min’s four Premier League goals have been worth six points to Tottenham this season, with no player’s strikes being more valuable to their side than the South Korean’s. Indeed, Son has scored the winning goal in three of Tottenham’s six Premier League victories this term.
LEICESTER V WATFORD
2pm Next we have Leicester hosting Watford with the away side hoping to continue their good form. Since losing 5-0 to Liverpool, Watford have picked up two wins against Everton and Manchester United while scoring nine goals and although they lost 1-0 to Arsenal and Southampton in between those games, they didn’t play that badly – they definitely could have got a draw from the Southampton game for example. They must come into this game with a lot of confidence after the 4-1 win over Manchester United, and with Leicester clearly not being at their best this season – Watford can attack this game with nothing to lose. Leicester are trading 1.66 at the time of writing, and although on paper they are a better side than Watford, it would take a brave punter to back them at the moment. They recorded a much needed win in the Europa League here on Thursday, but prior to that they had gone four games without a win. They were unlucky to lose here against Arsenal to be fair to them, and perhaps it’s harsh to expect them to beat an in-form Chelsea side.
Nevertheless, Leicester haven’t been at their best this season and it’s hard to have a huge amount of confidence in them. We landed a nice Max Bet against them with Chelsea at the weekend, and to be honest there wasn’t a moments worry. Much like the Spurs game above, I feel this is a game for small stakes. As I said, on paper Leicester should win but I want to see how they get on here. Watford are fighting a relegation battle at the moment, but they do come into the game with confidence and scoring goals. I expect them to make Leicester work very hard and possibly even get a result. The 1.66 on Leicester is too short in my opinion and I fully expect a closer game than the odds suggest.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Leicester to beat Watford at 1.66 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLeiwat
MATCH STATS
● Leicester have lost just one of their last 12 home league games against Watford (W9 D2), going down 2-1 in April 2013 in the Championship. The Foxes have won each of their last five such games by an aggregate score of 11-1.
● Watford have never previously kept a clean sheet in 20 top-flight meetings with Leicester – it’s the most one team has faced another in top-flight history while conceding in every single meeting.
● Four of the last five Premier League meetings between Leicester and Watford have seen a goal scored in the 90th minute (5 in total). The one game in this run in which there was no 90th minute goal saw a player red carded in the final minute instead.
● Leicester have lost their last two Premier League home games by an aggregate score of 5-0. They last lost three consecutive home league games without scoring back in September 1983.
● Only Norwich City (1) have scored the opening goal in fewer Premier League games than Watford this season (3). However, the Hornets have gone on to win all three games in which they’ve scored first.
● Though they’ve failed to score in a joint league-high seven different Premier League games this season, only six sides have scored more goals than Watford (16) in the competition so far this term.
● No side has conceded more Premier League goals from outside the box than Watford this season (5), while all 16 of the Hornets’ goals have been from inside the box. Only Crystal Palace (18) have scored more goals than Watford without any being from outside the area this term.
● Leicester striker Jamie Vardy has scored in each of his last three Premier League home games against Watford, with all three of these strikes coming from the penalty spot.
● Watford manager Claudio Ranieri – who guided Leicester to the Premier League title in 2015-16 – has won just one of his six Premier League games against sides he’s previously managed (D2 L3), beating Chelsea 2-1 in December 2015 with the Foxes.
● Emmanuel Dennis has scored four goals and assisted five more in just 11 Premier League appearances for Watford – should he score in this game, he would be only the sixth player in Premier League history to reach both five goals and assists in 12 or fewer games, after Eric Cantona (11), Jurgen Klinsmann (12), Arjen Robben (11), Andrey Arshavin (10) and Bruno Fernandes (9).
MANCHESTER CITY V WEST HAM
2pm We have a massive Top Four clash here as Manchester City host West Ham, however you wouldn’t know it by looking at the market! Manchester City are trading as short as 1.33 which is a bit of insult to how good West Ham have been to be honest – Liverpool were trading around the same odds to beat Southampton an Anfield on Saturday for example. It’s always hard to go against Manchester City as they are an excellent side, but you have to feel the 1.33 is a little short. It’s definitely not one for your BETDAQ Multiple this weekend – there are better options at 1.33 out there. West Ham will ultimately come up short in their bid for the Top Four again this season, but there’s no getting away from the fact that they are in the mix. With Manchester United, Arsenal, Leicester and Spurs all having issues this season the door is definitely open for that fourth spot. They did suffer a big setback with a 1-0 loss away to Wolves last weekend though, and I’m sure David Moyes would take a draw here without kicking a ball.
City record a massive win here midweek against PSG in the Champions League, and they have put four big wins together – two in the Champions League and then they beat Everton and Manchester United in the Premier League since losing here to Crystal Palace after getting a man sent off. They have played the best football of the season in my opinion, and I know a few results have gone against them, but you can’t argue with their underlining numbers. I do feel City are too short here, but I’m not going to take them on. With West Ham in excellent form and creating chances, I feel we’ll have an open game here with plenty of chances. I know there’s a huge gulf in class, but West Ham created an xG of 4.09 in the Europa League this week for example. Over 2.5 goals is 1.57 and that looks the best value option in what should be a very entertaining game.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.57 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQMciwes
MATCH STATS
● Manchester City have won nine of their 10 Premier League games against West Ham under Pep Guardiola (D1), scoring 28 and conceding just five in these matches.
● West Ham have won just one of their last 15 Premier League away games against Man City (D1 L13), winning 2-1 in September 2015 under Slaven Bilic.
● Having scored in 20 consecutive meetings with West Ham in all competitions, Manchester City drew 0-0 against the Hammers in their last meeting in the League Cup in October, before being eliminated on penalties.
● West Ham have taken just five points from 75 available in Premier League away games against reigning champions (W1 D2 L22), with their one victory coming at Manchester United in December 2001.
● Manchester City have kept a clean sheet in six of their last seven Premier League home games (W5 D1 L1), with the exception being a 2-0 loss against Crystal Palace last month.
● West Ham’s loss at Wolves last time out ended the Hammers’ four-game winning run in the Premier League. They’ve only lost consecutive league games twice since the start of last season, doing so in September 2020 and April 2021.
● Manchester City have played more open play crosses than any other team in the Premier League this season (206). The Citizens have had at least four teammates in the box for 98 of these, at least 37 more than any other side (West Ham, 61).
● West Ham are averaging 5.1 shots on target per game in the Premier League this season, their most in a single campaign in the competition since 2000-01 (5.3).
● Man City’s Raheem Sterling has been involved in 11 goals in his last eight Premier League games against West Ham (6 goals, 5 assists). However, only two of these have come at the Etihad (2 goals in August 2016).
● Bernardo Silva is Man City’s highest goalscorer in the Premier League this season with four goals. The Portuguese is looking to score in three consecutive league games for the very first time with the Citizens.
CHELSEA V MANCHESTER UNITED
4.30pm The Premier League has saved the best for last this weekend as Chelsea host Manchester United in the prime TV Sunday slot! Even if Manchester City beat West Ham in the earlier kick off, Chelsea will start this game top of the table on goal difference as they sat three points clear at the start of the weekend. They might have come up short looking at the xG figures when they played Liverpool and Manchester City, but there’s no doubt that they have been putting the smaller sides to the sword. Manchester United aren’t a small side, but they are going through a crisis at the moment and it seems an ideal time to back Chelsea here. We landed a nice Max Bet on Chelsea to beat Leicester last weekend, and we can repeat the trick here at 1.62. Obviously there’s going to be a lot of change for Manchester United with the sacking of Solskjaer but it is strange that they want to employ a manager for the rest of the season, and Ralf Rangnick seems to be the pick at the moment. Isn’t this what got them into this situation with Solskjaer? I was interested to see what kind of performance United put in midweek in the Champions League but they got the 2-0 win away to Villarreal which was a tricky tie, with another goal for Ronaldo.
On the same evening, Chelsea hammered Juventus 4-0 and they have been in excellent form since losing to Manchester City. Even in a 1-1 draw here with Burnley, they were exceptionally unlucky as they created an xG of 3.22 and should have easily won the game. With the volume of chances Chelsea are creating at the moment I just can’t see how United managed to stop them from scoring. They have so many issues at the back, and a manager change just isn’t going to change that overnight. United have had a very tough fixture list, but this could be another embarrassing loss with Chelsea in such good form. I can only see one winner here and the 1.62 on Chelsea is a Max Bet.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Chelsea to beat Manchester United at 1.62 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQChemun
MATCH STATS
● Chelsea are winless in their last seven Premier League games against Man Utd, only having a longer run without a league win against the Red Devils once before (10 games between 1938 and 1950).
● Manchester United have kept a clean sheet in each of their last four Premier League meetings with Chelsea – the only team to record a shutout in more consecutive league games against the Blues is Newcastle United, who did six in a row between 1913 and 1919.
● In all competitions, Manchester United have won three of their last four away games against Chelsea (D1), having won just three of their previous 25 visits to Stamford Bridge before this.
● This is the fifth time Chelsea have hosted Manchester United in a Premier League game when starting the day as the league leaders. The Blues have won three of the previous four (L1), going on to win the title in the season of each of the three victories (2005-06, 2009-10 and 2014-15).
● Manchester United are unbeaten in their last 11 Premier League away games in London (W7 D4), winning each of their last three in a row. They last won four consecutive league visits to the capital between May and November 2005.
● League leaders Chelsea have conceded just four goals in their 12 Premier League games this season. Only the Blues themselves (3 in 2004-05) have shipped fewer at this stage of an English top-flight campaign.
● Manchester United have lost five of their last seven Premier League games (W1 D1), as many as they had in their previous 42 in the competition. They’ve lost their two league games (vs Man City and Watford), but haven’t lost three in a row since December 2015.
● Michael Carrick will be the first Englishman to take charge of Manchester United in a league game since Ron Atkinson in November 1986 (1-1 vs Coventry). Four of the five managers to take charge of the Red Devils since Alex Ferguson left have won their first league game in charge, with Louis van Gaal the exception (1-2 vs Swansea in August 2014).
● Manchester United caretaker manager Michael Carrick will be the 14th different manager to take charge of his first ever Premier League game against Chelsea. 10 of the previous 13 to do so have lost (W1 D2), with Duncan Ferguson the only one to emerge triumphant (3-1 in December 2019).
● Chelsea striker Romelu Lukaku has only scored in one of his 11 Premier League appearances against Manchester United, netting a hat-trick as a substitute for West Brom in Sir Alex Ferguson’s final game in charge of the Red Devils in May 2013.
● In all competitions, Man Utd’s Cristiano Ronaldo has scored just one goal in 15 appearances against Chelsea, doing so in the 2008 Champions League final. The Blues are the side he’s faced the most without ever scoring against in top-flight football (10 games).
