SUNDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Sunday’s Premier League games. It’s LEEDS v BRENTFORD, MAN U v CRYSTAL PALACE, TOTTENHAM v NORWICH and ASTON VILLA v LEICESTER – all matches previewed with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.

LEEDS V BRENTFORD

2pm We have a fascinating Super Sunday in the Premier League this week! We have four home favourites, three of which are odds on favourites on BETDAQ Betting Exchange, and there’s question marks about all of them. This is a real day of different opinions on the odds, and I’m really looking forward to it. It’s actually a shame we have three games kicking off at the same time, but we start with Leeds hosting Brentford. Even though they beat Norwich recently, Leeds really needed that win against Crystal Palace midweek. It was a pretty even game but they managed to grind out a 1-0 win – keeping a clean sheet will be a big confidence boost for them too given their troubles at the back. That’s two clean sheets in a row, and while that is a promising sign if you look at the underlining numbers they do tell a different story. They conceded an xG of 1.99 against Brighton and then 1.25 against Crystal Palace so I wouldn’t suggest the issues at the back are fixed yet! It will be interesting to see can an attacking Brentford side create a lot of chances here.

Brentford have had a few disappointing results lately. They lost 2-0 to Spurs midweek but I wouldn’t mind that – I would be more worried about losing to Burnley and Norwich before drawing with Newcastle. After an excellent start to the season they have slipped a little down the table, and it’s always disappointing when you can’t beat a side in the bottom three. They were very unlucky to lose against Norwich but their away performances have been quite poor lately. I did note early in the season that they looked like a side who will be more comfortable at home, but then they went and beat Wolves and West Ham away. Since then they have created very little away and they have been playing poor sides too. I wouldn’t call myself a fan of Leeds because I know they have so many problems at the back, but this feels like a good time to back them. They come into the game with confidence and home advantage will play into their hands – at 1.95 they are worth backing.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Leeds to beat Brentford at 1.95 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLeebre

MATCH STATS

● Leeds have lost just one of their last 14 home league games against Brentford (W7 D6), going down 1-0 in the Championship in February 2015.
● This is the first top-flight meeting between Leeds and Brentford since April 1947, with the Bees winning 2-1 at Elland Road. Both sides were relegated at the end of the that campaign.
● Brentford haven’t conceded more than once in any of their 14 league meetings with Leeds in the 21st century (9 conceded in total), last doing so in a 4-0 defeat in March 1954.
● Brentford are unbeaten in their last six away league games against Yorkshire sides (W4 D2), last having a longer run without defeat in the county between 2007 and 2011 (8 games).
● Leeds are looking to win consecutive Premier League matches for the first time this season, while the Whites are looking to keep three consecutive clean sheets in the top-flight for the first time since August 2002.
● Brentford have lost five of their last seven games in the Premier League (W1 D1), after losing just one of their first seven matches in the competition (W3 D3). Indeed, the Bees have kept just two clean sheets in their last 12 Premier League matches, after recording a shutout in their first two games this season.
● Leeds have scored a 90th minute penalty in two of their last six Premier League matches, Rodrigo’s equaliser against Wolves and Raphinha’s winner against Crystal Palace. The Whites had only scored a penalty in the 90th minute of two of their first 514 Premier League matches – Gary McAllister’s third goal in a hat-trick against Coventry in October 1995 and Ian Harte’s winner against Derby in December 1999.
● Raphinha has scored 46% of Leeds’ Premier League goals so far this season (6/13), with the Brazilian’s strikes being worth seven points to the Whites.
● Aged 21 years and 278 days, Leeds United’s Illan Meslier will become the youngest goalkeeper in Premier League history to make 50 appearances in the competition, nine days younger than Joe Hart was in January 2009 when he made his 50th appearance. He’s the youngest Leeds goalkeeper to make 50 top-flight appearances since John Lukic in November 1980 (19y 337d).
● Ivan Toney has fired in 22% of Brentford’s shots in the Premier League this season (34/157), with only Brighton’s Leandro Trossard (23%) attempting a higher ratio for any side. Toney had half of Brentford’s shots in their 0-2 defeat at Spurs last time out (3/6).

MANCHESTER UNITED V CRYSTAL PALACE

2pm Next we have an intriguing affair as Manchester United host Crystal Palace. United played out a very dramatic 3-2 win here against Arsenal midweek in what was a massive game for both sides. The loser was always going to come under immense pressure from their fans and sure enough it left the Arsenal fans very unhappy. I noted before the game, it felt like United were there for the taking and the fans would have almost expected a good result. Ronaldo was the star of the show again, and after all the questions about does he fit into the side – he scores so many goals how could you even think about leaving him out? I felt Ralf Rangnick spoke very well after the game, and he’s definitely going to focus on the defensive element of Manchester United which is badly needed. They might bring in a higher profile manager during the summer, but so far anyway (from what he has said!), I’ve been impressed with Rangnick. He strikes me as the manager United need – not too high profile and will get the balance right. I suppose the problem with not being high profile is a couple of bad results and the fans turn on you.

Crystal Palace managed to shock United here last season when winning 3-1, and then in their last home game they held United to a 0-0 draw. United have actually only won once in their last four meetings and they haven’t won in the last three Premier League games against Palace at Old Trafford. When I clicked into the market I was very surprised to see United trading as big as 1.63 but you can understand why people would want to lay them given the stats. I can’t see Rangnick changing things too quickly and solving the issues at the back, but United will definitely go into this game with a better plan at the back. All they really need to do is fix the issues at the back because they have been excellent going forward. I’m looking forward to this game, but the best bet is United at 1.63 in my opinion. I feel that price is just too big. Palace come into the game without a win in three, but they aren’t playing badly so I’m happy to keep stakes limited, however United are too big to ignore.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Manchester United to beat Crystal Palace at 1.63 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQMuncry

MATCH STATS

● Manchester United failed to win either of their league meetings with Crystal Palace last season (D1 L1). They’ve not gone three without a win against the Eagles since a run of four between 1925 and 1970.
● Crystal Palace have won their last two away league games against Manchester United, as many as they’d managed in their previous 22 visits to Old Trafford in league competition (W2 D3 L17).
● Crystal Palace have taken seven points from their last four league meetings with Manchester United (W2 D1 L1), as many as they’d managed in their previous 23 against them (W1 D4 L18).
● Crystal Palace have already won 2-0 away against Manchester City in the Premier League this season – the last London side to win away at both Manchester clubs (City & United) in the same top-flight campaign was Arsenal in 1990-91.
● Man Utd have conceded in 15 consecutive home games in all competitions, their second-longest ever such run, after a 21-game streak ending in March 1959.
● Crystal Palace have lost back-to-back Premier League games, having lost just one of their previous 11 in the competition (W3 D7). However, these two defeats have been by a margin of one goal, with 10 of their previous 11 losses in the competition coming by at least two.
● Crystal Palace have shipped three goals in the 90th minute of Premier League games this season, with these costing the Eagles five points in total – 1-1 against Brighton, 2-2 against Arsenal and 0-1 last time out against Leeds.
● Wilfried Zaha netted twice in Crystal Palace’s 3-1 victory away against Manchester United last season – no player to have previously played for the Red Devils in the competition has ever scored in consecutive away games against them in the Premier League.
● Man Utd forward Anthony Martial turns 26 on the day of this game. He scored on his birthday in 2018 against Arsenal, and he could become just the second player to score on his birthday on two different occasions in the Premier League, after Teddy Sheringham (1994 and 1995).
● Since his debut for Manchester United in February 2020, Bruno Fernandes has been directly involved in more goals in all competitions than any other player for a Premier League club (79 – 45 goals, 34 assists).

TOTTENHAM V NORWICH

2pm We finish the 2pm games with the shortest price of the day as Spurs host Norwich. Spurs being the shortest price of the day should naturally come with a wealth warning but there have been obvious signs of progress already under Conte. They meet a Norwich side unbeaten in their last four games but they have been incredibly lucky looking at the xG numbers. They were very poor against Newcastle midweek – Newcastle got a man sent off very early in the game and Norwich were totally unable to take advantage. I don’t think their performance level has changed, but they have been getting results. It really shows what good momentum you can get from results and the confidence that follows – but they beat Brentford 2-1 while conceding an xG of 2.92, conceded a bigger xG when beating Southampton too. In fairness to Norwich, they could have beaten Wolves when they had home advantage but I don’t see them getting out of the relegation zone.

It’s actually hard to believe that Spurs started this weekend sitting in 6th given all the drama around the club. It has been their performances that have been the obvious issue though and the xG table puts them in 13th. They have been incredibly lucky to win some games but we can’t forget that there is a huge gulf in class here. Norwich are a very limited side, and although they have started to win games recently they have still given away a host of chances. Spurs have played two home games under Conte and they have created xG figures of 2.48 and 2.43. I don’t fully trust this Spurs sides against the top sides, but they should win easily here. They can cover the 1.5 goal handicap and it’s worth backing them at 2.22.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Tottenham -1.5 goals to beat Norwich at 2.22 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQTotnor

MATCH STATS

● Tottenham have won their last three Premier League home games against Norwich, more than they had in their first six against them in the competition (W2 D2 L2).
● Two of Norwich’s three Premier League victories against Tottenham have come away from home, with the Canaries winning at White Hart Lane in December 1993 and April 2012.
● Tottenham haven’t drawn any of their last 14 home Premier League games on a Sunday, winning 11 times and losing just three. Indeed, Spurs have won six of their last seven home Premier League matches played on a Sunday (L1), losing the other versus Chelsea (0-3).
● After a 25-game winless run in Premier League games in London, Norwich won their last visit to the capital in the competition (2-1 vs Brentford). They last won consecutive such matches in August/September 1992 – three in a row against Arsenal, Chelsea and Crystal Palace.
● Tottenham have won both of their first two Premier League home games under Antonio Conte – only Ryan Mason and Harry Redknapp won their opening three at home for the club in the competition.
● Norwich have taken eight points from their last four Premier League games (W2 D2), two more than they had in their previous 25 in the competition. The Canaries last had a five-game unbeaten run in the top-flight between October and December 2012 (10 games).
● Spurs striker Harry Kane has scored five goals in three Premier League games against Norwich, netting one penalty goal in all three matches. No player in Premier League history has scored a penalty in four consecutive appearances against a specific opponent before.
● This will be Spurs boss Antonio Conte’s first meeting with Norwich in the Premier League. Italian managers have won all eight of their games against the Canaries in the competition, with the most recent occasion being Carlo Ancelotti’s 1-0 win against them with Everton in June 2020.
● Son Heung-min has been directly involved in more Premier League goals at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium than any other player (34 – 19 goals, 15 assists). Indeed, his goal last time out versus Brentford was his 75th in the Premier League, while only four players have netted more for the Lilywhites in the competition (Harry Kane 167, Teddy Sheringham 97, Jermain Defoe 91, Robbie Keane 91).
● Norwich’s Teemu Pukki has scored three goals in his last four Premier League games, as many as he had in his previous 24 appearances in the competition. The Finnish striker has scored 62.5% of the Canaries’ Premier League goals this season (5/8).

ASTON VILLA V LEICESTER

4.30pm We finish the day with a very open market as Aston Villa host Leicester in the prime Sunday afternoon TV slot. This is going to be a very interesting game, with question marks about both sides. You can really see that Steven Gerrard coming in as given Aston Villa a big boost – he’s recorded two wins and they played well against Manchester City midweek. He’s an easy manager for the fans to get behind too, and it’s interesting to see how they get on over the next few weeks. I noted in my preview midweek that Villa haven’t really improved their performances but results have gone their way. There was much in the game against Brighton, and they actually conceded a bigger xG against Crystal Palace in their win there. Their best performance was actually against Man City midweek even though they lost. I have no doubt Gerrard has put a bit of confidence into the squad and the two early wins just go to boost that further. Although Villa are clearly a limited side when you look at their underlining numbers, they will be tough to beat here.

Leicester have really struggled this season. An in-form Leicester side would win this game, but Leicester started the weekend in 10th position. Their chances of European football next season look very slim, and their performance level has seen quite a dramatic drop off considering they have been pushing for a Champions League spot for the last two seasons. The xG table only puts them in 14th too. When you look at their recent games, it’s easy to see their problem. They have simply been giving away far too many chances. Even in their 4-2 win over Watford they conceded an xG of 3.05 which is remarkably big to give away at home to a side like Watford. They were lucky to draw away to Leeds recently too, and conceded an xG of 2.16 to Southampton midweek. I feel the match odds market is right here to have Aston Villa as favourites, and I’m happy to look towards the goal markets. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.94 and that looks excellent value in what should be an open game. Both sides have been giving away chances and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a high scoring game.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.94 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQAstlei

MATCH STATS

● Aston Villa have lost their last two home league games against Leicester – only once have they lost three in a row against them at Villa Park, doing so between 1936 and 1954.
● Leicester have won five of their last seven league games against Aston Villa (D1 L1), as many as they had in their previous 22 league meetings with the Villans (D9 L8).
● In Premier League history, only Middlesbrough (15 v Man Utd), Fulham (14 v Man City) and West Brom (13 v Arsenal) have hosted a side more often without registering a single clean sheet than Aston Villa and their 12 previous home games with Leicester, conceding 23 times across those matches.
● Leicester are without a clean sheet in their last 14 away Premier League games, since a 0-0 draw with Wolves in February. However, they have also scored in all 14 games, with Burnley the last top-flight team having a longer away run both scoring and conceding, between April 1961 and March 1962 (16 games in a row).
● Since their return to the Premier League in 2019, no side has lost more games on Sundays in the competition than Aston Villa (14). Meanwhile, only Tottenham (24) and Manchester United (18) have won more Sunday games than Leicester (17) in the same period.
● Both previous meetings between Aston Villa boss Steven Gerrard and Leicester’s Brendan Rodgers ended in 1-0 home wins – one apiece for Rangers and Celtic in the 2018-19 Scottish Premiership.
● Leicester striker Jamie Vardy has scored five goals in his last five Premier League games against Aston Villa, while teammate Harvey Barnes has been involved in four goals in his last three against the Villans (3 goals, 1 assist).
● Aston Villa manager Steven Gerrard suffered only his second league defeat in 55 matches last time out against Manchester City (W44 D9), losing the other with Rangers in August against Dundee United. He has never lost consecutive league games as a manager, while only four players have made more Premier League appearances under Brendan Rodgers than Gerrard did during their time together at Liverpool (99).
● Leicester manager Brendan Rodgers has won all six of his Premier League away games against Aston Villa – no manager has a better 100% win rate away against an opponent in the competition’s history (Jürgen Klopp also 6/6 vs Crystal Palace).
● Ollie Watkins has scored 18 goals in 49 Premier League appearances for Aston Villa – the last Englishman to score more than 18 goals in his first 50 games in the competition was Charlie Austin in October 2016 (23 goals).