PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Sunday’s Premier League games – all with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
BURNLEY V LIVERPOOL
2pm We have a cracking Sunday ahead in the Premier League! We have everything on BETDAQ Betting Exchange today – short priced favourites, very open markets and odds on home favourites. We start with the shortest price of the day as Liverpool travel to take on Burnley. Liverpool will be happy the African Cup of Nations is over as they get their two best players back, but I would keep an eye on Mo Salah over the next few weeks because Egypt went to extra time so many times. Plus the added fact of they didn’t win and the disappointment of the final, it might take him a while to recover physically. That’s something to watch out for, but Liverpool have been superb and I couldn’t put anyone off putting Liverpool in any BETDAQ Multiple today. Burnley picked up a 0-0 draw recently against Arsenal, but we all know Liverpool are on a different level to Arsenal. I feel anything is a bonus from a Burnley point of view, but that 0-0 draw with Watford was so disappointing. I felt they could win, but a 0-0 draw did nothing for either side – however with the games in hand a win would have given Burnley a fighting chance of staying up.
The market is expect a straightforward Liverpool win here as they are trading 1.37 at the time of writing, and to be honest I can’t see past a Liverpool win here. I felt they might struggle without Salah and Mane over the last few weeks, but they have been scoring plenty of goals and kept their xG figures high. They have created a higher average xG going forward than Manchester City this season which shows the quality they have going forward – their main issue has come at the back, and that’s why they find themselves so far behind City. One price I was surprised to see here was Both Teams Not To Score at 1.83. Burnley have created so little recently I expected around 1.66 when I clicked into the market. I know Liverpool like to play an open game and perhaps that will give Burnley chances but they have looked so limited going forward. Their main aim here will be to defend too, and I can see Liverpool having most of the ball and keeping a clean sheet.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.83 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/3gE8nPH
MATCH STATS
● Burnley have won just two of their 15 Premier League meetings with Liverpool (D2 L11), winning 2-0 at Turf Moor in August 2016 and 1-0 at Anfield in January last season.
● Liverpool have won six of their seven Premier League away games against Burnley, with the exception being a 2-0 loss in August 2016. It’s their best win rate at any side they’ve faced more than twice on the road in the competition (86%).
● Liverpool have won their last five Premier League games against the side bottom of the table by an aggregate score of 12-0. The Reds have lost two of their 10 such games under Jürgen Klopp (W7 D1), with both coming against Swansea (2-3 in January 2017, 0-1 in January 2018).
● Burnley haven’t won a home league game on a Sunday since January 2020 (2-1 vs Leicester), with the Clarets drawing four and losing two of their six such games since. Overall, of teams to have played at least 50 Sunday games in the Premier League, Burnley have the lowest win rate on the day in the competition (17% – 10 wins from 58 games).
● After failing to score in their final away Premier League game of 2020 (0-0 v Newcastle), and their first away Premier League game of 2021 (0-1 v Southampton), Liverpool have only failed to score in one of their last 22 league games on the road (0-1 v Leicester in December), with the Reds netting 56 times in total.
● Each of Burnley’s last four Premier League home games have been drawn, with the Clarets coming from behind in two of those (the other two finished goalless). There have been eight occasions of a team drawing five consecutive home games in the competition, most recently Burnley themselves in March 2021.
● Burnley have won just one of their last 23 Premier League games (D11 L11), with 10 of their last 15 ending in a draw. Indeed, they’ve drawn each of their last three league games, last having four consecutive draws back in March 1987 while in the fourth tier.
● Liverpool’s Roberto Firmino has had a hand in five goals in his last four Premier League starts against Burnley (4 goals, 1 assist). The Brazilian has also been directly involved in four goals in his last four appearances at Turf Moor in the competition (3 goals, 1 assist).
● Jay Rodriguez scored Burnley’s equaliser in their last Premier League game against Manchester United. Only once has he scored in consecutive Premier League games for the Clarets, doing so in July 2020 – the second game of which was a 1-1 draw against Liverpool.
● Liverpool’s Andrew Robertson has registered five assists in his last four away Premier League games and has six overall for the Reds on the road this season. The last Liverpool player to assist more than six away goals in a Premier League season was Danny Murphy in the 2002-03 season (Mo Salah also has six away assists this season).
NEWCASTLE V ASTON VILLA
2pm We have two open markets this afternoon, this is the first of them as Newcastle host Aston Villa. While Newcastle are right in the heat of a relegation battle, we won’t see them treated as such within the markets. They have added some nice players in the transfer window and the market will respect that. They will be expected to improve and we won’t see usual “relegation battler” prices. This game will give us a good idea of where Newcastle stand because Aston Villa are a solid side, but they aren’t amazing. They are your average mid-table Premier League side to be honest – they shouldn’t have been so low down the table when Steven Gerrard took over, but he has given them an obvious boost and their performances have followed. I have to say he got a little lucky at the start because they recorded wins over Brighton and Crystal Palace in very close games but after a good performance against Manchester City they put in some good performances against the likes of Leicester, Norwich and Manchester United. They have been pretty steady really, and they will bring their usual level to this game – the question is can Newcastle cope with that and get a result?
That win over Leeds before the winter break was absolutely huge for Newcastle, and it was so important as well to attract some new players to the club. They are definitely favourites to stay up from the bottom four, but they need to deliver now. It wasn’t a surprise to see an open market here, but I still feel there’s value on offer in the match odds market. Newcastle have been reasonably solid at home of late, and I feel that they can get a result here. Villa haven’t been creating enough chances to blow sides away, especially away from home, and they are worth laying at 2.4. I would have them closer to 2.6 – for all that Gerrard hasn’t given them a great boost and confidence, they still have to grind out results and their xG figures don’t stand out going forward. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a draw here to be honest but the value play is the Villa lay to have the Newcastle win on our side too. What a massive result for Newcastle if they can get three points here.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Aston Villa to beat Newcastle at 2.4 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/3HP3Tl1
MATCH STATS
● Newcastle are unbeaten in their last 12 Premier League home games against Aston Villa (W6 D6) since a 3-0 loss in April 2005. Each of the last three in the competition between the sides at St James’ Park has finished 1-1.
● Aston Villa are looking to do the double over Newcastle for just the second time in the Premier League, previously doing so in the 2004-05 campaign under David O’Leary.
● Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last seven Premier League games against Newcastle (W3 D4), having lost five of their seven against them before this (D2).
● Newcastle have won their last two Premier League games, having won just one of their first 20 this season. The Magpies are looking to secure three consecutive league victories for the first time since November 2018.
● None of Aston Villa’s last 15 Premier League away games has finished level (W6 L9), with the Villans alternating between victory (3) and defeat (2) in their last five. Their last draw on the road, however, did come at Newcastle in March (1-1).
● Newcastle have had at least 10 shots in each of their last four Premier League games, averaging 15 shots per game across these matches. The Magpies are also averaging 5.3 shots on target in these games, two more than their average across the season beforehand (3.2).
● Two of Newcastle’s last four Premier League goals have come from a direct free-kick, with Jonjo Shelvey netting against Leeds and Kieran Trippier doing so against Everton. Just two of their previous 116 league goals had come in this fashion.
● Only Liverpool have failed to score in fewer Premier League games than Aston Villa (3) this season. The Villans have only failed to score in one of their 11 games under Steven Gerrard so far (0-1 vs Liverpool).
● Danny Ings and Anwar El Ghazi scored in Aston Villa’s 2-0 win against Newcastle in the reverse fixture – the last player to score home and away league goals against the Magpies for the Villans in the same season was Juan Pablo Angel in 2004-05.
● Philippe Coutinho has been involved in four goals in three Premier League games since joining Aston Villa (2 goals, 2 assists), with the Brazilian averaging a goal involvement every 44 minutes so far for the Villans.
TOTTENHAM V WOLVES
2pm We finish the 2pm games with Spurs hosting Wolves. I was a little surprised to see Wolves lose to Norwich in the FA Cup last weekend, but you have to respect the fact Norwich were riding a wave of confidence going into that game with their recent wins and getting out of the bottom three. In hindsight after that game, you’d probably say the winter break came at a bad time for Wolves because they had put a few wins together. That being said, they weren’t exactly winning games impressively. They were lucky to win at Brentford and the Manchester United game was very even. Although given the issues United were going through, you were almost waiting for the late Wolves goal to win the game. Wolves have probably been one of the most boring sides in the Premier League this season stats wise – they have scored and conceded less than one goal per game on average. That’s Wolves though – they always try to grind out results and that is their game – you have to respect them for it as they do a good job.
They will likely set up to defend here and try to stop this Spurs side. Conte has really impressed me since coming into Spurs though, and they have had an excellent home record. When he took over, Spurs looked like a basket case but given their games in hand they are in pole position for a Top Four finish. I feel Wolves would have a decent chance if they had home advantage, but the Spurs xG figures at home have been so impressive I feel they will create a lot more than Wolves and that is what will be the difference here. I know Wolves are a hard side to break down, but the 1.7 on Spurs offers enough value to back. There is the goals market to consider when you think of the likely tactics from Wolves here, but under 2.5 goals is basically the same price as the Spurs win and I’m happier with that given their impressive home performances this season. They have created an xG figures of over 2.0 a lot of times since Conte took over – a similar type of performance will get the job done here.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Tottenham to beat Wolves at 1.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/3rMziyQ
MATCH STATS
● Following their 1-0 win at Molineux earlier in the season, Tottenham are looking to secure their first league double over Wolves since the 2003-04 campaign.
● Wolves have won two of their last three away league games against Spurs (L1), as many as they had in their previous 15 visits (D5 L8). However, they did lose this exact fixture 2-0 last season.
● Eight of the 15 Premier League meetings between Tottenham and Wolves have been won by the away side (53%). Of all fixtures to have been played at least 15 times in the competition, only Leicester vs Manchester City has been won by the visitors more often (55% – 12/22).
● Following three consecutive away Premier League victories, Wolves are looking to win four in a row on the road in the top-flight for the first time since April 1980 under John Barnwell, a run of five.
● Having been unbeaten in their first nine Premier League games under Antonio Conte, Tottenham have now lost their last two. The Italian hasn’t lost three consecutive league games since November 2009, while at Atalanta.
● No side has conceded fewer away Premier League goals this season than Wolves (8, level with Chelsea and Man City). Goalkeeper José Sá is conceding a goal every 124 minutes in away Premier League games, the second-best average of any goalkeeper to play 10+ games in the competition’s history, behind only Ederson (one every 127 minutes).
● Tottenham have scored at least twice in each of their last six Premier League home games. On just two occasions have they had a longer run of scoring 2+ goals in consecutive home games in the competition, with both taking place at White Hart Lane – seven between September-December 1998 and seven between February-May 2017.
● Since the first game at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in April 2019, Spurs’ Son Heung-min has both scored (23) and assisted (16) more Premier League goals than any other player at the ground. Indeed, the Korean has scored more goals in 50 Premier League appearances at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (23) than he netted in 61 home games for Spurs at Wembley and White Hart Lane combined (22).
● Tottenham’s Son Heung-min has been directly involved in seven goals in his last seven Premier League games, scoring five and assisting two. Each of these goals has been scored in the second half, and each coming in or later than the 65th minute.
● João Moutinho has scored two goals in his last two away Premier League appearances for Wolves, as many as he scored in his first 66 on the road for the club. At 35 years and 158 days on the day of this game, he would be the oldest player to score in three consecutive away Premier League appearances since Les Ferdinand for Leicester City in March 2004, who was 37.
LEICESTER V WEST HAM
4.30pm We finish Super Sunday with a cracker. Leicester host West Ham in the most open betting heat of the day. Although there’s a lot going on with the Top Four race this season, West Ham aren’t fully out of the race yet. The reality is not many really expect West Ham to finish in the Top Four when we get to the crunch, but just being involved at this stage of the season is fantastic for West Ham and the target must be staying in the Europa League for another season. You have to give credit to David Moyes for what he’s done at the club, especially because when he arrived he was seen as a joke after his experience at Manchester United and then Real Sociedad. You almost forget his time at Sunderland too given Sunderland go through so many managers! Although we have an open market here, The Hammers will view this has a fantastic chance to pick up an away win because Leicester have been so average this season. As I said in their midweek fixture, Brendan Rodgers would have been under immense pressure if it wasn’t for the media being focused on Ole Gunnar Solskjaer at the time.
Leicester didn’t do anything to boost morale with a 4-1 loss last weekend in the FA Cup to Nottingham Forest, and that effectively ended their season given where they are in the Premier League and getting knocked out of the Europa League. Getting knocked out so early in the FA Cup is a big blow too considering they were defending Champions, and they just haven’t been good enough this season. They have been conceding goals for fun this season, and that will be music to the ears of West Ham when you consider how many chances they create. West Ham have scored very close to two goals per game in the Premier League this season, and Leicester have conceded the same! I know Leicester have home advantage here and everyone expects a very close game, but so much points to a West Ham win here I’m happy to take the 2.58.
The Striker Says:
Three points win West Ham to beat Leicester at 2.58 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/33hsCQ5
MATCH STATS
● Leicester have conceded at least three goals in each of their last three Premier League meetings with West Ham (L3), losing this exact fixture 3-0 last season.
● West Ham have won each of their last three Premier League games against Leicester, last winning more consecutively against the Foxes in the competition in their first four such meetings between 1994 and 1997.
● West Ham have scored in 90% of their Premier League games against Leicester (26/29) – their highest ratio against an opponent they’ve faced more than 10 times in the competition.
● Leicester won their last three home Premier League games in 2021 but have won neither of their two in 2022 (D1 L1), despite going ahead in both games. They had only dropped points in three of their previous 17 league games at the King Power when taking the lead (W14 L3).
● West Ham have lost four of their last seven Premier League away games (W2 D1), as many as they had in their previous 20 on the road before this (W12 D4).
● West Ham have made fewer changes to their starting XI than any other side in the Premier League this season (28). They’ve named an unchanged side on eight occasions this term (a league-high), only doing so more often in a single campaign in the competition in 1993-94 (13) and 2008-09 (12).
● West Ham’s Michail Antonio has been involved in five goals in his last five Premier League appearances against Leicester (4 goals, 1 assist), including two goals and an assist in the Hammers’ 4-1 win in the reverse fixture this season.
● Leicester manager Brendan Rodgers has lost each of his last three meetings with David Moyes in all competitions – the only managers he’s lost four in a row against in his career are Alex Ferguson (2011-2013) and Carlo Ancelotti (2014-2020).
● Leicester’s Patson Daka has scored in four of his five home Premier League appearances so far, netting once in each game. He has scored in all three home starts and could be the seventh player in Premier League history to score in his first four, and second to do so in any as months, after Southampton’s Armando Broja.
● Jarrod Bowen has been involved in more goals in all competitions than any other West Ham player this season (19 – 11 goals, 8 assists). The last Englishman to score more than Bowen’s 11 in a single campaign with the Hammers as a top-flight club was Carlton Cole in 2008-09 (12).
