THE STRIKER: previews Sunday’s Premier League action with extended stats and a recommended bet. It’s underway at 12pm with ASTON VILLA v SOUTHAMPTON, then NEWCASTLE v EVERTON (2pm), MANCHESTER UNITED v ARSENAL (4.30pm) and TOTTENHAM v BRIGHTON (7.15pm).

The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!

Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.

ASTON VILLA V SOUTHAMPTON

12pm A thrilling Super Sunday awaits! We have some cracking fixtures today, and excellent markets on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. too as we have some pretty open games. Spurs are the shortest price today, and even they are trading 1.6+. We start early with Aston Villa taking on Southampton after losing their first game of the season to Leeds last weekend. They were unlucky not to score looking at xG, but they definitely weren’t unlucky to lose and they look too short to me at 2.6 here. Apart from the very eye-catching 7-2 win over Liverpool, which obviously people were going to rave about, Villa have slightly over-performed this season.

Don’t get me wrong, Villa have been very impressive. They are greatly improved from last season, but I just can’t have them at 2.6 to beat Southampton today. The Saints recorded a nice 2-0 win over Everton last weekend off the back of a 3-3 draw with Chelsea and two wins prior to that. They started a little slowly, but they have hit their stride now and looking at their xG numbers I think they are playing better, if not just as good, football compared to Villa. Southampton are tempting at 2.92, but the Villa lay jumps off the page for me at the odds.

The Striker Says:
Four points lay (liability) Aston Villa to beat Southampton at 2.6 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQaststh

MATCH STATS

  • Aston Villa are winless in their last seven Premier League encounters with Southampton (D3 L4), conceding 16 goals against them across the last five meetings (D1 L4).
  • Southampton are looking to win four consecutive league games against Aston Villa for the first time since August 1989.
  • Southampton have won their last two Premier League away games against Aston Villa, netting seven goals in the process. Their previous seven league goals at Villa Park had come across a 14-game spell between 1994-2014.
  • Aston Villa’s winning start to the season was ended at home to Leeds last time out (0-3). However, they’ve still picked up more points in their five games this season (12) than they managed in their final 14 games last term (10).
  • Only Liverpool (18) and Manchester City (15) have won more Premier League games in 2020 than Southampton (12, level with Arsenal and Manchester United).
  • Aston Villa have won three of their last four Premier League games on Sunday (D1) – as many as they’d won in their previous 29 such matches in the competition (W3 D4 L22).
  • Southampton manager Ralph Hasenhüttl has won 13 away games in the Premier League (W13 D8 L12), only Ronald Koeman (14) has won more in the competition for the club. Indeed, Hasenhüttl has the best points-per-game ratio in away matches of any other Southampton manager in the Premier League (1.42).
  • Southampton striker Shane Long has been directly involved in 11 goals in his last eight Premier League starts against Aston Villa (7 goals, 4 assists), four of those goal involvements came in a 6-1 drubbing in May 2015.
  • Since the start of last season, Aston Villa captain Jack Grealish has created more goalscoring chances in the Premier League than any other Englishman (106). Indeed, only Kevin De Bruyne (151) has supplied more chances in the competition in this period amongst all players than Grealish.
  • After failing to score in his first 24 Premier League appearances, Southampton’s Che Adams has scored six in his last 12 matches, including in each of the last two. He hasn’t found the net in three successive league games since a run of six for Birmingham City between January-February 2019.

NEWCASTLE V EVERTON

2pm Everton suffered their first loss of the season last weekend against Southampton, however they still held onto top spot at the start of Matchday 7. They’ll be hoping to win here to hold onto it again! Even though they were well beaten by Southampton, they have an excellent chance to bounce straight back against a very poor Newcastle side. Newcastle managed another lucky draw against Wolves on Sunday, with the equaliser coming in the 89th minute. I look at Newcastle’s xG and only see them struggling, yet somehow they find ways to get points. That draw against Spurs was incredible, and I’m sure Jose Mourinho still has nightmares about it!

It’s fair to say that this Everton side have been overrated at the start of the season. They had a reasonably easy run of fixtures after their early win over Spurs. However they have created some nice chances and dealt with the likes of Crystal Palace and Brighton easily. I really feel that they should be odds on here to beat this Newcastle side. Newcastle aren’t a lucky side for me, but they can’t keep getting lucky results! Everton at 2.04 for me are worth backing.

The Striker Says:
Three points win Everton to beat Newcastle at 2.04 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQnwceve

MATCH STATS

  • Newcastle have won just two of their last 15 Premier League meetings with Everton (D3 L10), winning 3-2 in home games in both December 2014 and March 2019.
  • Only at West Ham (11) have Everton won more Premier League away games than they have vs Newcastle (8), with six of their eight victories at St James’ Park coming in their last nine visits.
  • Newcastle United have won only one of their last seven Premier League home games (D2 L4), failing to keep a clean sheet in this run and conceding an average of 2.4 goals per game. The Magpies haven’t failed to record a shutout in eight successive PL matches at St James’ Park since February 2014.
  • Everton have only drawn one Premier League away game during Carlo Ancelotti’s reign, winning six and losing six, with the stalemate coming against West Ham in January.
  • Newcastle United have failed to win any of their last five Premier League games on Sunday (D3 L2), they last endured a longer winless run on this day back in May 2009 (seven games).
  • No Premier League side has registered fewer shots on target this season than Newcastle United (14), with the Magpies averaging just 2.3 per game – their lowest ratio in a single campaign in the competition since 1997-98 (when the data is available).
  • Everton have had a player sent off in their last two Premier League games (Richarlison and Lucas Digne); the Toffees are looking to avoid being the 10th side to see red in three successive outings, the last being Watford in December 2017.
  • Everton boss Carlo Ancelotti has yet to lose against Newcastle in the Premier League, although three have ended level (W1) – only versus West Ham (5) has the Italian managed more games without losing in the competition.
  • Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored more Premier League goals against Newcastle than he has versus any other opponent (4), netting his four goals in his last three games against the Magpies.
  • Only Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes (18) has created more goalscoring chances in the Premier League this season than Everton’s James Rodríguez (17), with the Colombian providing a league-high three assists from set-plays so far.

MANCHESTER UNITED V ARSENAL

4.30pm This is undoubtedly the highlight of the weekend! United have been on fire in the Champions League with wins over PSG and RB Leipzig, but that has yet to transfer over to the Premier League. A win here would be a much need boost and would push them into mid table. They finished Matchday 6 in 15th and although they have played a fixture less than most of the teams around them, they really need to start winning league games. Arsenal fans would have been full of optimism at the start of the season, but as I have been highlighting for a number of weeks the signs are there that they haven’t changed or improved.

Their xG numbers have been worrying. They were very lucky to beat West Ham 2-1 with a late goal as they “lost” the game 2.32 to 1.33 on xG. They were again lucky to beat Sheffield United, and while they have become more solid at the back – they aren’t creating that many chances. There are a number of issues with Man United too, don’t get me wrong, but on balance I like the 2.1 on the United win here. This Arsenal side is there for the taking, and while you can never rely on United to perform, the 2.1 is worth backing today. United have tended to perform better in big games, and even in the 0-0 draw with Chelsea last week they created more than Chelsea.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Manchester United to beat Arsenal at 2.1 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQmunarl

MATCH STATS

  • Manchester United are unbeaten in their last 13 home league games against Arsenal (W8 D5) since a 0-1 loss in September 2006.
  • Arsenal have won two of their last three Premier League games against Man Utd (D1), as many as they had in their previous 15 against them (W2 D5 L8). Indeed, Arsenal are unbeaten in their last four league games against Man Utd, last having a longer such run against them between 1989-1992 (5 games).
  • Manchester United are unbeaten in their last 29 home league games against Arsenal in games in which they’ve scored (W21 D8), last losing when scoring at home to the Gunners back in November 1977 (1-2).
  • Manchester United are winless in their three home league games so far this season (D1 L2), last failing to win any of their first four at Old Trafford in 1972-73. In fact, the Red Devils are winless in their last five league games at home, their longest such run since February 1990 (6).
  • Arsenal have averaged just 8.8 shots per game and scored 1.3 goals-per-game in the Premier League in 2020-21. It’s their lowest shots-per-game average in a single PL campaign since 1997-98 (when the data is available), while it’s their lowest goals-per-game average since 1995-96 (1.29).
  • Manchester United have the best win percentage (54% – 152 of 280) and points-per-game ratio (1.9) of any Premier League team when playing on Sunday (min. 3 games).
  • Manchester United have lost just two of their last 19 matches in the Premier League (W11 D6), although both defeats have come in the last five games and against London-based teams (Crystal Palace and Tottenham Hotspur).
  • Mikel Arteta is looking to become just the second manager in Arsenal’s history to win both of their first two games against Manchester United, after Herbert Chapman in 1925-26. The last Gunners manager to win their first away game against the Red Devils was Billy Wright in May 1963.
  • Since scoring twice against Arsenal on his Premier League debut in February 2016, Marcus Rashford hasn’t netted in any of his last nine games against them in all competitions, including five starts in this run.
  • Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has gone five league matches without a goal for the first time since November 2014, while playing for Borussia Dortmund. During this five-game streak, the striker has attempted only five shots in total and failed to land a shot on target on three occasions.

TOTTENHAM V BRIGHTON

7.15pm As I keep saying, it’s never dull with Jose Mourinho! After resting a number of players and losing 1-0 to Royal Antwerp, he went on a media rant saying that team selection is not difficult for him, clearly stating that the others weren’t good enough. This can always go two ways; either the players in question work harder to improve or they simply don’t play for Jose, and so begins the loss of another dressing room. In fairness to Mourinho, he has the first choice Spurs XI playing superbly but he’s playing a very dangerous game already – he will need the fringe players at some stage throughout the season with injuries and busy schedules. It’ll be interesting to see what happens!

Even with all the midweek drama, Spurs at 1.66 is a little tempting as they have been playing some excellent football. They have been creating a lot of chances and I wouldn’t read too much into the midweek performance. My bet is Over 2.5 goals though at 1.68. As I said, Spurs have been creating some good chances but Brighton have too. They were unlucky to only draw with Crystal Palace and they were very unlucky to lose against Manchester United. They can score here and we can see more than 2.5 goals.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.68 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQtotbha

MATCH STATS

  • Tottenham have won each of their last four home league games against Brighton (including all three in the Premier League), since a 0-1 loss in October 1981.
  • Brighton have won just one of their six Premier League meetings with Spurs (D1 L4), with that victory coming in last season’s meeting at the Amex Stadium (3-0).
  • Tottenham have only lost one of their last 12 matches in the Premier League (W7 D4), although they are without a win in the last three on home soil (D2 L1). The Lilywhites last went four Premier League home games without a win in December 2013.
  • Brighton have lost just once in their last 10 away Premier League games (W3 D6), losing to Everton in October.
  • Brighton have won just two of their last 15 Premier League games in London (D5 L8), beating Crystal Palace in March 2019 and Arsenal in December 2019.
  • Only bottom of the table Fulham (362) have been trailing for more minutes in Premier League matches this season than Brighton (241). In contrast, only Crystal Palace (313) have led for more minutes this term than Tottenham (294).
  • Only Brighton (7) have conceded more set-piece goals (incl. penalties) in the Premier League this season than Tottenham (6), with each side conceding three goals from the penalty spot (a joint-league high with four other teams).
  • Tottenham striker Harry Kane has scored 148 Premier League goals in just 216 appearances – should he reach 150 goals in this fixture, it would make him the joint-second quickest player to the milestone in the competition’s history (alongside Sergio Agüero), with only Alan Shearer (212 games) doing so in fewer games.
  • Tottenham striker Harry Kane has recorded eight assists in six Premier League appearances this season, the most he has ever provided in a single campaign in the competition. In fact, Kane has more assists than any other player in Europe’s top five leagues this season.
  • Just six games into this season, Tottenham duo Harry Kane (7 assists) and Son Heung-min (2 assists) have combined for nine Premier League goals so far – the joint-most for Spurs in a single campaign in the competition alongside Teddy Sheringham & Darren Anderton (9 in both 1992-93 and 1994-95) and Teddy Sheringham & Chris Armstrong (9 in 1995-96).

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