PREMIER LEAGUE SUNDAY: The Striker previews Sunday’s Premier League games including TOTTENHAM v NEWCASTLE at 4.30pm – all with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats via FACTMAN.
ASTON VILLA V BRENTFORD
2pm It’s nonstop action in the Premier League at the moment, and we have another massive Super Sunday on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We have plenty of talking points to get through this weekend, none more so than the sacking of Steven Gerrard at Aston Villa after losing again midweek, and we kick off Sunday with Aston Villa in action again as they host Brentford. I think it was a sign of just how poor Gerrard was at Villa that there was no real debate on whether or not he should be sacked. The results were very poor recently, and to be honest any fan of xG would have known he didn’t really improve them anyway. They were in danger of getting into a relegation fight when he took over, and they rode a good wave of momentum when he came in, but their xG figures were never really that impressive. They always struggled to create chances, and although they are “too good to go down” they were never doing any better than 14th. We have seen talk of the likes of Unai Emery, Mauricio Pochettino and even the current Brentford manager Thomas Frank taking over but surely that’s the Aston Villa wish list rather than anything else. I can’t see any of those three wanting to accept this job – it would be a massive step down for Pochettino even if he is without a job at the moment.
It will be fascinating to see how the Villa players respond here. It’s always hard to tell if a manager lost the dressing room when it’s not obvious – you can usually tell by the uptick in performance levels after they have been sacked. It’s a really bad sign for the club when the performance levels don’t change – a recent classic example of this was Rafa Benitez at Everton; he got sacked but they stayed playing average football and just avoided relegation. With Villa starting the weekend just outside the bottom three, and level on points now with Wolves and just one ahead of Leicester they need a performance here. It’s ironic that they probably created one of their best xG figures when losing here against Chelsea last weekend and Gerrard came under intense pressure. Brentford played well against Chelsea midweek, they drew 0-0 but should have won as they had the better chances. I expect a pretty close game here, and it’s hard to get away from the Villa lay at 2.2. They just haven’t played well enough to justify those odds – granted we might see a bounce in performance here – so I’m keeping stakes reasonably small.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Aston Villa to beat Brentford at 2.2 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AstBre
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LEEDS V FULHAM
2pm We have another big game in the relegation battle here as Leeds host Fulham. Leeds are another side under pressure towards the bottom of the table – they start the weekend sitting in 16th but they have the same amount of points as Aston Villa and Wolves – if they don’t do something quickly they can easily drop into the bottom three, especially now with Leicester getting some wins too. Leeds will be a little bit more comfortable because they have a game in hand on the sides around them, but whatever way you look at things it hasn’t been a good start to the season for them. It’s been the opposite for Fulham, and they have collected 15 points from their 11 games to be sitting in the top half of the table. They have moved themselves out of the relegation discussion, and they put on one of their best performances of the season midweek against Aston Villa. Obviously we won’t get too carried away because Villa have been playing so poorly, but you have to say Fulham will be delighted with their overall performance as they return to the Premier League. This is an interesting market with Leeds the clear favourites – they aren’t quite odds on but they are trading 2.1 at the time of writing. They have been unlucky lately, but the 2.1 still feels a little too short in what should be a close game.
It would have been very disappointing for Leeds to lose 2-0 midweek against Leicester, but to be fair to them they did finish the game with a higher xG figure. It’s just one of those things; they just have to keep playing good football and eventually they’ll start taking their chances. They were even more unlucky to lose 1-0 against Arsenal in their last home game last weekend – they finished that game with an xG of 2.35 and they just can’t keep wasting their chances! I feel like we have been saying the same thing about Leeds for a while though – they tend to create a lot of chances but fail to convert them. Fulham will come into this game full of confidence, and although their away performances have to be a worry here I’m happy with a small lay on Leeds from a value point of view. I just expect a closer game than odds of 2.1 suggest, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a draw here.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Leeds to beat Fulham at 2.1 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeeFul
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SOUTHAMPTON V ARSENAL
2pm Another fascinating game. Southampton finally broke their winless run midweek with a very hard fought 1-0 win away to Bournemouth, and now they host league leaders Arsenal. It was a shame we didn’t get to see Arsenal v Man City midweek but Arsenal had to catch up on their Europa League fixture against PSV which they won 1-0. Arsenal played superbly on Thursday evening, and could have easily scored four or five – that was definitely a good “bounce back” performance after two average performances against Bodo/Glimt and Leeds. I know they won both games 1-0 but they only created xG figures of 0.72 and 0.86. Both times they conceded a higher xG figure, and as I said above Leeds finished the game with an xG of 2.35. When you see figures like that you have to question whether or not the wheels are starting to fall off this Arsenal side but for the moment at least they are back to cruise control. On paper, this is another one of those “tricky” fixtures that Arsenal of old would have struggled in. They would have almost been bullied out of winning – despite conceding a big xG away to Leeds you have to give this Arsenal side big credit for grinding out a result – that’s something that they haven’t been doing for years. And who knows, maybe they actually can challenge for the title this season.
The ”title contender” tag was almost a joke at the start of the season, but the longer they stay on top the more interesting things get. I know Arsenal still have a few issues, but you can’t knock them this season. Over all their performances have been to a high level, and they are creating a host of chances. Most importantly of all, they look to have a backbone about them too – they just aren’t rolling over under pressure anymore. Despite Southampton putting together two results with a draw here against West Ham and a win against Bournemouth, I’m happy to take the 1.6 on Arsenal here. Southampton just haven’t been good enough this season – they are conceding 1.6 goals on average and scoring 0.9. Giving away that many chances against an in-form side like Arsenal is only going to end one way. I’m not fully sold on “new Arsenal” so they won’t be a Max Bet, but they are a confident one. This should be a smooth win for the Gunners.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Arsenal to beat Southampton at 1.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SouArl
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WOLVES V LEICESTER
2pm We finish the 2pm games with a huge game in the relegation battle as Wolves host Leicester. It’s actually a massive day towards the bottom of the table with Aston Villa, Leeds Wolves and Leicester all in action. This is obviously the biggest clash because a win for either side who equally do damage to the other. It will be fascinating to see who comes out on top, and indeed who plays the better football too. Both sides have recorded recent wins with Wolves beating Nottingham Forest last weekend and then Leicester beating Leeds midweek. They both still sit in the bottom three however, and probably Wolves are under a little bit more pressure at the moment because Leicester seem to be putting a few results together. I have to say though even with Leicester getting results, their performances have still been very poor. They really took their chances against Nottingham Forest and credit to them for that, but they equally conceded a higher xG figure than they created against Leeds midweek and it was a very boring 0-0 against Crystal Palace last weekend. I know everyone will say they have good momentum at the moment, but they still have a lot of work to do in my opinion. Similar can be said above Wolves, but they are probably in a worse position because they have less quality than Leicester.
Although technically this is the most open market of the day, Wolves are still reasonable favourites at 2.38. When I look at this fixture I just see a very close game between two average sides. From a value point of view, I really can’t have Wolves as short as 2.38. They just aren’t creating enough chances to justify those odds, even against a poor side like Leicester. Of course I’m going to keep stakes small here because both sides lack quality, but it’s hard to see past the Wolves lay. Both sides have been conceding chances too, so it’s not like I want to jump on Under 2.5 goals either. Even though Wolves won two recent games here against Southampton and Nottingham Forest – both times winning 1-0 – both times they also conceded a higher xG figure than they created showing things could be even worse for them in the bottom three. Leicester aren’t a side you want to rely on however, so I’ll be keeping stakes to a minimum here but the Wolves price is simply too short.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Wolves to beat Leicester at 2.38 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WolLei
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TOTTENHAM V NEWCASTLE
4.30pm We finish an intriguing day in the markets with Spurs hosting Newcastle. While Manchester United took all the headlines midweek against Spurs, for the right and wrong reasons in the case of Ronaldo, what got lost in the media was how average Spurs were. They were totally outplayed again in a big game and it’s hasn’t been a good few weeks for them. They were outplayed in the North London Derby and outplayed at Old Trafford – this is a side who should be pushing for that third spot this season, but they have come up well short in two big games now. Even in between they were pretty average when winning away to Brighton; lucky too because they conceded a higher xG figure than they created. Conte had a little go at his squad after the game, and I always think that’s the wrong thing to do – I know that is his style but I suppose that’s why he is always viewed as a short-term manager. He’s going to have another tough fixture on his hands here against Newcastle who have bene fantastic this season. They started the weekend sitting in sixth place, and they could be even higher too – they have been unlucky a few times this season and they have been creating chances for fun too.
Newcastle recently picked up a result away to Manchester United, and we landed a lay on United not too far away from where Spurs are trading for this game. This should be another close game, and Spurs feel a little short at 2.16. You can’t help but be impressed by Newcastle this season – they are creating an average xG of 1.9 going forward which is highly impressive and conceding close to 1.0. Spurs’ figures are actually worse than Newcastle because they haven’t been creating as many chances which is obviously interesting given how everyone views both sides! Clearly Spurs have been a lot more comfortable at home this season and most of their average performances have come away from home. That’s why I’m going to reduce my stakes here, but Newcastle should make this game closer than odds of 2.16 suggest on Spurs and I’m happy with the home lay from a value point of view. What an interesting day ahead!
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Tottenham to beat Newcastle at 2.16 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TotNew
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