PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker looks ahead to Sunday’s Premier League games with FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet. The highlight is the North London derby at 4.30pm TOTTENHAM v ARSENAL.
CHELSEA V CRYSTAL PALACE
2pm It’s another fantastic Super Sunday in the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange ! I’m sure all eyes will be on a massive North London Derby later, but we have two games with plenty of talking points to enjoy first. We start with Chelsea hosting Crystal Palace, with things looking more bleak as the days go by for Chelsea! The performance away to Fulham on Thursday night was much improved, but it was still another loss and puts Potter under further pressure. It’s a very interesting situation – he really isn’t long in the job but we know the ownership is trigger happy. I know we’ve been through this before, but in hindsight it really wasn’t a good decision to sack Thomas Tuchel – it seems obvious now that he had not lost the dressing room because the performances haven’t improved. The players were offering their best at the time, and unfortunately for Chelsea their best isn’t good enough at the moment. If you’re Graham Potter sitting in your office, you’re probably delighted to see your next fixture is Crystal Palace at home. This is a very winnable game, and the reality is Chelsea can under-perform and still win this game. That being said, the market has no real trust in Chelsea as they trade 1.72 at the time of writing. That’s quite a high price considering Crystal Palace have been very average this season.
We have landed some nice bets being against Chelsea in recent weeks, especially away from home before the World Cup too, but I have to say the 1.72 is a very tempting bet here. Betting is all about getting value, and I believe we’re getting good value backing Chelsea this time. Crystal Palace have been very poor this season in my opinion – they are too good to be involved in a relegation battle or anything like that, but their standard of play has been quite low. They’ve returned from the World Cup with three losses from four games in all competitions, only beating Bournemouth who have been conceding chances for fun. They fell apart in the second half against Spurs to lose 4-0, and then got beaten 2-1 by Southampton in the FA Cup last weekend. They are conceding an average xG of 1.6 per game this season which is quite high, and I fully accept that Chelsea have been miles off their best this season, but they can win this game. Although the Fulham loss added to their woes on Thursday night, they actually played very well. They created an xG of 2.74 which was their highest figure for the whole Premier League season and they only conceded 0.65. It was just unlucky to lose, and if they play a similar game here they will win in my opinion. I don’t want to go crazy with the stakes, but the 1.72 is cracking value.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Chelsea to beat Crystal Palace at 1.72 BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CheCry
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Chelsea have won their last 10 Premier League games against Crystal Palace. In their league history they’ve only ever won more consecutively against West Bromwich Albion (12 between 1989 and 2011), and Sunderland (11 between 2002 and 2010).
● Crystal Palace have conceded at least once in each of their last 17 Premier League games against Chelsea – only against Liverpool (a current run of 19) have they gone longer without a clean sheet in the competition.
● Two of the first four Premier League games between Chelsea and Crystal Palace were draws – since then, none of the last 23 between them has finished level (19 Chelsea wins).
● Chelsea have lost three of their last six home London derbies in the Premier League, including their only one under Graham Potter so far (0-1 vs Arsenal). The only Chelsea manager to lose his first two league London derby matches at Stamford Bridge was Tommy Docherty, who lost his first three in the 1961-62 campaign.
● No side has lost more games (4) or won fewer points (4) in Premier League London derby matches than Crystal Palace this season. However, they won their last such away match 2-1 against West Ham, last winning consecutive away top-flight London derbies in November 1997 (3 in a row).
● Chelsea have lost two of their last three Premier League home games (W1), as many as they had in their previous 21 league games at Stamford Bridge before this (W10 D9).
● Chelsea are yet to concede a goal in the first half of a home Premier League game this season, the only side to do so. The Blues haven’t conceded in the first half of any of their last nine league games at Stamford Bridge stretching back to last season, their longest such run since March 2013 (10 in a row).
● Crystal Palace have lost three of their last four Premier League games (W1), as many as they had in their previous 12 beforehand (W5 D4). They’ve only conceded once before half-time in these four games, shipping seven times after the break, including all four in their defeat against Spurs last time out.
● Chelsea boss Graham Potter has never won at home to Crystal Palace in all competitions in his managerial career, drawing one and losing three of four previous such games in charge of Swansea and Brighton. Indeed, Potter’s only managerial win home or away against the Eagles was this season’s reverse Premier League meeting with Chelsea at Selhurst Park, a 2-1 victory.
● Only Darwin Núñez (19) has had more shot-ending carries (moving 5+ metres with the ball) in the Premier League this season than Crystal Palace’s Wilfried Zaha (18), whose three goals following carries in 2022- 23 is a joint-high in the division. Zaha has also had 37 carries with a take-on; only Gabriel Martinelli (39) has had more in the Premier League this term.
NEWCASTLE V FULHAM
2pm We have another very interesting game kicking off at 2pm as Newcastle host Fulham. I’m sure everyone will be watching the Chelsea game, but this should be a very entertaining game between two sides who have been flying high this season. After the win over Chelsea on Thursday night, Fulham moved up into sixth place in the Premier League table which is remarkable considering they were in the relegation discussion at the start of the season – I suppose any club coming up from the Championship is going to be in that discussion, and you could argue that they have had plenty of luck this season. The win over Chelsea was another example of that because they conceded an xG of 2.74 while only creating 0.65, but you have to give them massive credit for getting as many points as they have. From a long-term point of view, I would definitely worry about them conceding an average xG of 2.0 per game this season because eventually sides are going to start taking their chances, but while they have been poor at the back they have been excellent going forward. They are creating an average xG of 1.6 attacking which is quite high, and that’s why they are so high up in the table. Newcastle are also having an excellent season – they sit even higher than Fulham – they start the weekend sitting in third and although they dropped points for the first time in a while, they won’t mind drawing 0-0 away to league leaders Arsenal.
Unlike Fulham, when you look at the Newcastle stats you can see they fully deserve to be where they are in the table. After a surprise loss to Sheffield Wednesday in the FA Cup, they got back to winning ways here midweek in the Carabao Cup. They beat Leicester 2-0, but it could have been more to be honest because they were all over them in the first half without scoring. Their stats are far more healthier compared to Fulham – they are creating an average xG of 2.0 per game this season while only conceding an average of 1.1. Those are stats you expect to see from a Top Four club, and it’s easy to see why they are trading 1.56 here. Although I expect Newcastle to get the win here, the 1.56 doesn’t offer a lot of value in my opinion – it’s hard to make the case that they should be shorter. The bet I like here is Over 2.5 goals at 1.81. Fulham have been playing an exceptionally open game this year, their stats fully back that up too, and Newcastle are very attacking at home. We should have an entertaining game here with plenty of chances.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.81 BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NewFul
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Newcastle are looking to complete the league double over Fulham for the first time since 2007-08, while they’re also looking to win three in a row against the Cottagers for the first time ever.
● Fulham are winless in their last six Premier League away games against Newcastle (D3 L3) since a 1-0 victory in May 2009. Their last two visits to St James’ Park have finished level.
● Newcastle are unbeaten in their last 13 Premier League games (W8 D5), only having one longer unbeaten run in the competition (14 between May and November 2011). That run of 14 games came under Alan Pardew, also the only time this century an English manager has gone 14+ Premier League games without defeat.
● Fulham have won their last two away Premier League games, beating Crystal Palace and Leicester, keeping a clean sheet in both. They haven’t won three in a row since April/May 2008, while they’ve never won three away top-flight games in a row without conceding before.
● Newcastle United have kept a clean sheet in their last four Premier League matches – the Magpies have never kept five in a row in the top-flight in their entire history. They last did so in league football between August and September 2009 in the Championship.
● Fulham have won four away Premier League games in 2022-23, as many as they managed in their previous two top-flight campaigns combined (1 in 2018-19, 3 in 2020-21). The Cottagers haven’t won five away games in a Premier League season since 2003-04.
● Callum Wilson has scored four goals in his four Premier League games against Fulham, netting in both of his appearances for Newcastle against the Cottagers.
● Aleksandar Mitrovic has scored in his last three away Premier League appearances for Fulham and could become the first ever Cottagers player to score in four in a row. He could become the second player this season to score against the Magpies at St James’ Park in the Premier League after previously playing for them in the competition, along with Ivan Toney.
● Nick Pope has kept a clean sheet in his last four Premier League appearances for Newcastle, his longest string of clean sheets in the competition. The last English goalkeeper with five consecutive clean sheets was Fraser Forster in February 2016 for Southampton (six in a row).
● Newcastle have lost none of the 16 Premier League games Sven Botman has played (W9 D7), the longest unbeaten start for any Magpies player in Premier League history. The Magpies are conceding a goal on average every 166 minutes with him on the pitch, the best ratio of any Newcastle player to play at least 200 minutes for the club in the Premier League.
TOTTENHAM V ARSENAL
4.30pm We finish Sunday with the biggest North London Derby for years. We’ve had some massive clashes between Spurs and Arsenal down through the years, and this one is right up there. Spurs have really been struggling lately, and they returned to action with two disappointing results against Brentford and Aston Villa. That meant they dropped out of the Top Four, but they did bounce back with a 4-0 win over Crystal Palace. You get the feeling that Spurs need a big result soon to steady the ship and take the pressure off Conte before he says anything silly in the press, and probably starts the process of losing the dressing room. This fixture would really lift spirits because they could put a big dent in Arsenal’s title challenge, and no doubt Spurs fans would love that too! Spurs and Manchester United are going to have a big say in the title race in the weeks to come, and it will be very interesting to see how things play out! Before the two big derbies this weekend, Arsenal have a five point advantage and their goal at the moment must be to just tick off each fixture and attempt to hold onto their lead. Arsenal have been playing the better football compared to Spurs this season, I don’t think that’s a question, and they come into this game as decent favourites.
The league leaders are trading 2.28 at the time of writing with Spurs 3.3 and the draw 3.75. Arsenal dropped their first points for a while with a very even 0-0 draw at home to Newcastle, the game dominated by Arsenal’s penalty claims but Newcastle stopped them from creating much. I’m sure Conte will set his team up to be solid at the back here, but are they good enough to deliver? Their average xG conceded is ticking up this season, but they are just conceding far too many sloppy goals this season. With Arsenal creating and scoring over two goals per game this season, and then also only conceding an average xG of less than one it’s actually hard to see past an Arsenal win here. The Spurs performances just haven’t been good lately – even the wins over Bournemouth and Leeds prior to the World Cup were full of chaos with Spurs coming from two goals down. Over 2.5 goals is a very tempting bet at 1.82, and I feel it’s a straight choice between Overs and Arsenal at 2.28. I personally couldn’t put anyone off the Arsenal bet, but Over 2.5 goals is my stand out bet here. Spurs games have been jam packed with goals recently, and then Arsenal have been creating so much I can only see goals here. The 1.82 is a very confident bet, and it’s worth a Max Bet!
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.82 BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TotArs
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Tottenham are unbeaten in their last eight Premier League home games against Arsenal (W6 D2). They’ve won their last three at home against them but have never won four in a row in their league history.
● Following their 3-1 win at the Emirates in October, Arsenal are looking to complete their first league double over Tottenham since 2013-14, which was also their last league victory away against Spurs.
● Tottenham have only failed to score in one of their last 17 Premier League games against Arsenal, finding the net in each of their last 10 since a 2-0 loss in November 2017.
● Tottenham have won 13 Premier League penalties against Arsenal, scoring 12 of them – only Liverpool against Spurs themselves have won (14) and scored (13) more against an opponent in the competition. Harry Kane has scored seven of these penalties, with no player scoring more from the spot against a single side in the competition’s history.
● This is the earliest in a calendar year the north London derby has been played in the Premier League since 1995, when Tottenham won 1-0 at White Hart Lane on January 2nd.
● Tottenham scored first for the first time in eight Premier League matches in their 4-0 win against Crystal Palace last time out. They’ve won 16 of their last 18 Premier League games when opening the scoring (D2) since a 3-2 loss against Southampton last February.
● Arsenal have won all six of their Premier League London derby matches this season, keeping a clean sheet in all three away games. They’ve not won seven league London derbies in a row since the 2007-08 campaign, which included home and away wins against Spurs.
● Tottenham have scored more second half goals than any other Premier League side this season (27), with these also accounting for a league-high 73% of their total (27/37). Meanwhile, only Newcastle (82%) have conceded a higher share of their Premier League goals after half-time this season than Arsenal (71% – 10/14).
● Tottenham’s Harry Kane – the highest scoring player in north London derby history with 14 goals – has scored in all but one of his eight Premier League home games against Arsenal (9 goals in total), failing only in July 2020.
● Since the start of last season, no player has been directly involved in more London derby goals in the Premier League than Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka (11 – 4 goals, 7 assists). Saka also created the most chances in the Gunners’ 3-1 victory over Spurs earlier this season (5).
