PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker looks ahead to another Super Sunday in the Premier League with the highlight at 4.30pm as leaders ARSENAL take on MAN U. All matches include FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LEEDS V BRENTFORD
2pm Another Super Sunday in the Premier League, another very exciting day on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We have something for everyone this Sunday, an open market, a red-hot favourite and a massively important fixture! I’m sure all eyes will be on the main talking point of the day as Arsenal take on Manchester United in the prime TV slot, but we kick off the day with the most open market of the day with Leeds hosting Brentford. We have some massive relegation clashes this weekend in the Premier League, and Leeds will know the results of Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest and West Ham v Everton before they kick off here. They started the weekend only two points away from the bottom three, and even though there’s quite a few sides between Leeds and they bottom three, they have definitely been dragged back in the relegation mix. They face an in-form Brentford side here who have re-started their season with a bang! They’ve been unbeaten in the Premier League since returning from the World Cup, and they have played Spurs and Liverpool in two of their four games. They would have felt unlucky to only draw with Spurs too; they did have a 2-0 lead!
Leeds have been heading in the opposite direction. They have yet to win since the re-starting their season, but they have managed two draws from their four games. They also recorded a confidence boosting 5-2 over Cardiff in their FA Cup replay this week, and although they lost last weekend against Aston Villa they were very unlucky as they finished the game with an xG of 2.84. I suppose that performance was classic Leeds – concede sloppy goals and don’t take their chances – we have been here before! Although we have an open market here, Leeds are decent favourites. They are trading 2.46 while Brentford are 3.05 – I would have the sides a lot closer together in the betting for an even more open market. Brentford have been playing very good football coming into this game and I can definitely see them getting a result. I’m happy to lay Leeds at 2.46 from a value point of view as I can see Brentford making life very difficult for them here. Leeds always give away a few chances, and Brentford have been on fire in front of goal recently.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Leeds to beat Brentford at 2.46 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeeBre
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● There have been 14 goals in the three Premier League meetings between Leeds and Brentford (6 for Leeds, 8 for Brentford), with the Bees winning 5-2 earlier this season.
● Brentford are looking to complete a league double over Leeds for only the second time in their history, doing so previously in 2014-15 in the Championship.
● Having won two of their first three Premier League games this season (D1), Leeds have won just two of their subsequent 15 matches (D4 L9), with those victories coming consecutively in October/November against Liverpool and Bournemouth.
● Brentford have won their last three Premier League matches, last winning more consecutively as a top- flight club between February and March 1939 (5). Overall, the Bees are unbeaten in their last seven Premier League games (W4 D3), with only Newcastle (14) and Arsenal (12) currently on longer runs.
● Brentford are looking to win three consecutive away league games for the first time as a top-flight club, last doing so in any division in May 2021.
● Brentford are unbeaten in all 20 of their Premier League matches in which they’ve opened the scoring (W16 D4). From the start of a Premier League career, only Manchester United have had a longer unbeaten record when scoring first, doing so in their first 176 such games in the competition between 1992 and 1999.
● Since the start of last season, Leeds have conceded more Premier League goals than any other side (112), while only Everton (54) have won fewer points than the Whites among the 17 ever-present sides (55).
● Only Leicester (17) have dropped more points from winning positions in the Premier League this season than Leeds (13). However, Brentford are one of four teams yet to win when conceding the first goal in the Premier League this season (D4 L4).
● Leeds’ Patrick Bamford has scored (1) or assisted (1) a goal in each of his last two Premier League appearances, despite playing a total of just 61 minutes from the bench across these two games. No Leeds player has ever been involved in a goal in three consecutive Premier League substitute appearances before.
● Brentford striker Ivan Toney has scored 13 goals in 17 Premier League games this season, one more than he managed in 33 appearances last season. He’s scored all nine of his Premier League penalties, with only Yaya Touré having a better 100% record (11/11).
MANCHESTER CITY V WOLVES
2pm We have the shortest price of the day, indeed the whole weekend in the Premier League, as Manchester City host Wolves. The market is very confident of a comfortable home win here with City trading as short as 1.22 at the time of writing. Wolves have really struggled this season, but they pulled themselves out of the relegation zone since returning from the World Cup with wins over Everton and last weekend against West Ham. After all that hard work and effort, the fixture list hasn’t been kind to Wolves. They have to play Manchester City here, then we have a break for the FA Cup but after that the next Premier League fixture for Wolves is Liverpool! Maybe they can get a result in that game like they did in the FA Cup, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if Wolves slipped back in the bottom three – indeed they would be absolutely delighted to not be in the bottom three after those two fixtures! Manchester City had a massive setback when losing the Manchester Derby, and then they played Spurs on Thursday night under immense pressure. It was a crazy end to the first half and City went 2-0 behind – they were even boo’d off the pitch by their fans! In classic City fashion though, they roared back in the second half to win 4-2!
Despite that dramatic win, Pep Guardiola wasn’t happy afterwards. In fairness they were all over the place at the back for the two goals, and Guardiola said the top teams would take them apart. That was definitely harsh, but City can take any side in the world apart with their attacking. Even though Wolves have been grinding out results, and they must be more confident after their recent wins too, it’s hard to see them getting anything here. Their best hope seems to be playing for a 0-0 draw and hope that City have an off day in front of goal. With those Wolves tactics in mind, we could have a pretty boring game here with Wolves putting XI men behind the ball and City trying to find ways through them. I’d expect City to win 2-0 or 3-0 nil without it looking too impressive, and I’m happy to back Under 3.5 goals at 1.68 which looks a very nice option here. It’s hard to see Wolves causing City problems at the back, and I can also see Wolves keeping the score line reasonably respectable.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 3.5 goals at 1.68 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MciWol
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Since losing both Premier League games against Wolves in 2019-20, Manchester City have won their last five in a row against them, scoring 16 goals and conceding just three.
● Wolves have picked up just four points in eight Premier League visits to Manchester City (W1 D1 L6), with their one win there coming in October 2019.
● Wolves have won just four of their 17 Premier League games against reigning champions (D1 L12), losing the last five in a row. However, 50% of these wins came against Manchester City in 2019-20, including their only such away win (2-0).
● Since their return to the Premier League in 2018, Wolves have received more red cards against Manchester City than they have against any other opponent in the competition (3), accounting for 33% of their total reds in that time (3/9). Nathan Collins was dismissed in the reverse fixture at Molineux this season.
● Man City lost their last Premier League game on a Sunday, going down 1-0 at Liverpool in October. They last lost consecutive such matches between February and July 2020 (3 in a row).
● Wolves have won two of their four Premier League games under Julen Lopetegui (D1 L1), as many as they had won in their previous 22 before his arrival (D6 L14). They’re looking to win back-to-back league matches for the first time since March last season.
● Wolves are the lowest scorers in the Premier League this season, netting just 12 goals in their 19 games so far. However, they’re averaging a goal a game under Julen Lopetegui (4 in 4), compared to 0.5 per game before his arrival this season (8 in 15).
● Man City boss Pep Guardiola has won two of his three meetings with Wolves’ Julen Lopetegui in all competitions (L1), with his Bayern Munich side beating Porto 6-1 in April 2015, and Man City beating Sevilla 4-0 in this season’s UEFA Champions League.
● Man City’s Kevin De Bruyne has been directly involved in nine goals in his last six Premier League appearances against Wolves, scoring five and assisting four. However, all of these goal involvements have come away from home.
● Wolves’ Daniel Podence has scored three goals in his last four Premier League games, as many as he had in his previous 23. He’s scored in consecutive matches for the first time in the competition, with his last four goals being worth seven points to Wolves.
ARSENAL V MANCHESTER UNITED
4.30pm Fixtures don’t get much better than this for the prime Super Sunday TV slot! These two have had many battles throughout the years, and Arsenal have made their big return to title challengers this season too! What can we say about Manchester United this past week? They recorded an impressive win in the Manchester Derby last weekend, keeping City down to their lowest xG of the season. After that game, it was definitely a whisper but United could be in the title race. That didn’t last long though, as they could only manage a draw away to Crystal Palace midweek. That result was classic United over the past few years; slipping up against the mid-table side after a big win. You have to say though that they were unlucky – they created an xG of over three times what they conceded and the late goal was a sucker punch. It was a lovely free-kick though! The biggest setback was the yellow card for Casemiro because he now misses this game. Not having arguably their best player, in such an important position for United, is such a huge blow heading into this fixture. That “moment of madness” for Casemiro as Sky Sports called it, could easily cost United the game here.
When this market opened, Arsenal were trading around 2.06, but the Casemiro yellow card and suspension has moved Arsenal into 1.94 and I believe they are still great value at that price. Losing Casemiro is a huge blow for United, and it changes their whole team set-up in my opinion. Arsenal have been in superb form this season, and while I know Spurs have been struggling this season, they absolutely blew them away in the first half North London Derby and then closed it out very well for a 2-0 win. Arsenal fans would have been very exciting at half-time when Spurs lead Man City 2-0 on Thursday night, but City’s 4-2 win keeps the pressure on Arsenal for the time being. It’s hard to fault this Arsenal side though – they are creating an average xG of over two goals per game and only conceding an average of just under one. They are impressive stats, and it’s not a surprise they top the table. I don’t see United getting a result here without Casemiro holding things together in front of the back four, and I’m very happy to take the 1.94 on Arsenal. I know they have a nice lead at the top of the table, but given the history between these clubs, a win here would really give them the belief that they can hold off the City challenge and win the title. The 1.94 is a confident bet.
The Striker Says:
Four points win Arsenal to beat Manchester United at 1.94 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ArsMan
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Arsenal have won five of their last seven home Premier League matches against Manchester United (D1 L1), winning 3-1 at the Emirates last season.
● Man Utd are looking to complete only their second league double over Arsenal since Sir Alex Ferguson retired in 2013, doing so since then only in 2017-18 under José Mourinho.
● This is the 29th Premier League meeting between Arsenal and Manchester United on a Sunday, with only Chelsea v Liverpool (32) and Liverpool v Man Utd (31) taking place more often on the day. 65% of Arsenal’s Premier League victories over the Red Devils have been in Sunday games (11/17).
● Manchester United won 3-1 against Arsenal in September, with the Gunners top of the table. The only side they’ve beaten twice in the same Premier League campaign when the opponent was top both times are Newcastle United in 1995-96.
● This is just the third time Arsenal are hosting Manchester United in a Premier League match while top of the table, with the previous two meetings ending in draws – 1-1 in March 2004 and 2-2 in November 2007.
● Arsenal have scored in 17 of their 18 Premier League games this season, though the exception was their last home game in the competition (0-0 vs Newcastle). They’ve not failed to score in consecutive league matches at the Emirates Stadium since November 2020.
● Arsenal are yet to concede a goal in 2023, drawing 0-0 with Newcastle before wins against Oxford (3-0) and Tottenham (2-0). In only three calendar years have the Gunners not conceded in any of their first four competitive matches, doing so in 1935, 1994 and 2021.
● Bukayo Saka has scored in his last two Premier League games against Man Utd – only Freddie Ljungberg (1998-2000) and Thierry Henry (2000-2001) have scored in three in a row for Arsenal against the Red Devils in the competition.
● Man Utd’s Marcus Rashford has been involved in eight goals in his 10 Premier League starts against Arsenal (4 goals, 4 assists) – against no side has he produced more goal involvements in the Premier League than versus the Gunners.
● Arsenal’s Gabriel Martinelli has been involved in 10 goals in his last 10 Premier League games at the Emirates Stadium (6 goals, 4 assists), only failing to either score or assist a goal in two of his appearances in this run (vs Fulham and Newcastle).
