PREMIER LEAGUE SUNDAY: The Striker looks ahead to a fascinating Sunday in the Premier League which starts at 2pm with LEEDS v MAN U followed by MAN CITY v VILLA at 4.30pm. Both matches include FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LEEDS V MANCHESTER UNITED
2pm We have a cracking Super Sunday in the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange featuring both Manchester clubs! Will we see two wins for United and City? I’m sure they will be a popular double! We start the day with Leeds hosting Manchester United, in a very quick rematch after the sides met at Old Trafford on Wednesday. Most of the discussion, on Twitter anyway, was about the match not being shown live on TV – we all have multiple subscriptions these days, it was remarkable it wasn’t on one! We had a very entertaining 2-2 draw which plenty of chances at both ends of the pitch. You’d have to say United created the better quality chances because they finished with an xG of over 2.0 while Leeds didn’t even reach at xG of 0.75. Leeds got off to a superb start, and to be fair to them they managed to hold the lead until half-time and then add to it too. You’d always be disappointed to not win from 2-0 up, but I think on balance Leeds will be happy with the draw at Old Trafford. They are still slap-bang in the relegation battle, and every point matters. It’s fair to say that United were much the better side, and it’s easy to understand why they are the odds on favourites coming into this game.
United are trading 1.98 at the time of writing, so just marginally odds on. There will be some big opinions either way on that price, some punters will be keen to lay United but I wouldn’t be. If anything, I would lean towards backing them. In reality given the chances, United should have won on Wednesday and if you played the same game again they would win plenty of times compared to only drawing. It was still a big setback for United though, especially with Arsenal and Manchester City losing last weekend – it was a chance missed to apply a little bit of pressure. We landed a nice bet on Wednesday on Over 2.5 goals, and once again these two just scream goals. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.73 this time around which looks like a cracking price. It was 1.62 on Wednesday, and there wasn’t much stress watching the game if you backed it. We had three points at 1.62, but I feel 1.73 is worth a Max Bet. Leeds just don’t know how to play a tight game, even their games with Under 2.5 goals have plenty of chances. United won’t sit back here, and have been creating a lot lately too. I think, and also looking at Wednesday too, these sides gel together really well and we should see another end-to-end game.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.73 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeeMun
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Leeds lost this exact fixture 4-2 last season but haven’t lost consecutive home league games against Manchester United since October 1976.
● Manchester United have scored 4+ goals in three different Premier League away games against Leeds, winning 4-0 in September 1996, 4-3 in March 2002, and 4-2 last season. Only Arsenal (4 times) have scored 4+ goals at Elland Road as visitors in the competition more often.
● This is the first time Leeds have faced the same opponent in consecutive top-flight fixtures in the same season since April 1974 against Sheffield United (0-0 at home, 2-0 away), and the first time they’ve faced Manchester United in consecutive league fixtures since April 1947 (1-3 away, 0-2 home).
● This is the first time Manchester United have faced the same opponent in consecutive top-flight fixtures in the same season since December 1967 against Wolves, winning 4-0 at home and 3-2 away en route to a second-place finish that season.
● Leeds have won just one of their last eight Premier League home games (D4 L3), beating Bournemouth 4-3 in November. Their last two at Elland Road have both finished level (2-2 v West Ham, 0-0 v Brentford).
● Manchester United have lost six of their last 11 Premier League games on a Sunday (W4 D1), including four of nine this season. Only in 2013-14 (5) and 2018-19 (6) have the Red Devils lost more Sunday games in a single campaign in the competition.
● Having lost 4-0 to Brentford in their first away game this season, Manchester United have scored in each of their last 10 on the road in the Premier League (15 goals in total). They lost at Arsenal in their last away league match, but are yet to lose consecutively away from home under Erik Ten Hag.
● Manchester United have opened the scoring in each of their last four Premier League away games but have failed to win the last two (1-1 vs Crystal Palace, 2-3 vs Arsenal). Just twice before have the Red Devils been winless in three consecutive Premier League away games having opened the scoring (D3 in March 1994, D3 in August 2019).
● Despite only making his home debut for the club in November, and playing just five home games, only Rodrigo (6) has scored more goals at Elland Road for Leeds in all competitions this season than Wilfried Gnonto (3).
● Man Utd’s Marcus Rashford has scored two goals in his last three Premier League away games, having netted just once in his previous 18 on the road.
MANCHESTER CITY V ASTON VILLA
4.30pm The next Manchester club are in action as Manchester City host Aston Villa. It hasn’t been a good time of things for City over the last week or so. They now have the Premier League investigation hanging over them and then they lost 1-0 to Spurs last weekend too. After watching Arsenal lose to Everton, not closing the gap would have been a bitter blow. I think for the first time, most football fans have started to question whether City can catch Arsenal now. Of course, we’ve had the whole Haaland debate again this week about him adding to the side. When he’s not scoring, it seems we are always going to have this debate and then the next week he scores a hat-trick! Last season, everyone said City were missing a natural goal scorer, now they have one and he doesn’t score, he doesn’t fit into the system! Despite a few issues, and the Premier League investigation hanging over them is a massive one, City are going to start this game trading the shortest price of the weekend. They are trading 1.26 at the time of writing – fair to say the market is very confident on the home win here! With Aston Villa conceding four goals at home to Leicester last weekend, how many goals will they concede away to City?
I wouldn’t put anyone off City at 1.26, but that’s a price for an Acca. I think this is a case of how many goals can City score rather than can they win. With that in mind, focus turns to the goal and handicap markets. City’s xG figure was very disappointing against Spurs last weekend, and it wasn’t so long ago that Manchester United held them to their lowest xG of the season. Those two games came away from home, but they haven’t been creating a huge volume of chances. I can’t see past the home win here, but I expect to see Villa keep the score line respectable. I would expect Emery to set up Villa quite negatively and draw for a draw, with City grinding out a 2-0 or 3-0 win holding the ball for most of the game. It is tempting to go for Under 3.5 goals or Villa on the handicap, but Both Teams Not To Score is 1.85 which stands out. This is a game to keep stakes low however, and I’m happy with a one point bet at 1.85.
The Striker Says:
One point win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.85 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MciAvl
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Manchester City have won their last 12 Premier League home games against Aston Villa, coming from 2-0 down to win 3-2 and secure the Premier League title on the final day last season.
● Following their 1-1 draw at Villa Park in September, Aston Villa are looking to avoid defeat in both Premier League meetings with Man City in a season for the first time since 2000-01, when they drew 2-2 at home and won 3-1 at Maine Road.
● Aston Villa have won just one of their last 29 away league games against reigning top-flight champions (D6 L22), beating Manchester United 1-0 at Old Trafford in December 2009 under Martin O’Neill. They’ve lost their last eight such games by an aggregate score of 26-6.
● Manchester City have lost four Premier League games this season, already more than they did in the whole of 2021-22 (3). They lost 1-0 at Tottenham last time out, but haven’t lost consecutive league games since December 2018.
● Aston Villa have won all three of their Premier League away games under Unai Emery, with John Gregory the only manager in Villa’s league history to win his first four on the road (first 5 between March-May 1998). Villa last won four consecutive top-flight away games between November 2008 and February 2009 (7).
● Aston Villa have scored at least once in their eight Premier League games under Unai Emery, with their 14 goals scored in these matches as many as they’d netted in their previous 15 combined. The Villans last had a longer scoring streak in the top-flight between March and May 2010 (10 games).
● This will be Man City boss Pep Guardiola’s 250th Premier League game as manager. He’s the 29th manager to reach this milestone in the competition, while only five managers have more wins than the Spaniard (183). Indeed, Guardiola has the highest win rate of any permanent manager in Premier League history (73.5%).
● Aston Villa manager Unai Emery has never beaten Man City’s Pep Guardiola in 12 previous meetings in all competitions, drawing four and losing eight. His first ever Premier League game in charge came against Guardiola’s City, and a 2-0 defeat with Arsenal at the Emirates in August 2018.
● As well as being the top scorer in the Premier League this season with 25 goals, Erling Haaland’s strikes have earned Man City a league-high 18 points. However, last time out against Tottenham, the Norwegian failed to register a single shot or touch in the opposition penalty area in 90 minutes.
● Aston Villa striker Ollie Watkins is looking to score in three consecutive Premier League games for the first time. He last scored in three straight league appearances in August 2018 with Brentford in the Championship.
