PREMIER LEAGUE SUNDAY: The Striker looks ahead to the two games between MAN U v LEICESTER and SPURS v WEST HAM with FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MANCHESTER UNITED V LEICESTER
2pm It’s an intriguing Super Sunday in the Premier League with two odds on favourites with home advantage on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. The home favourites face two sides having lacklustre seasons; way too good to go down but still hanging around the bottom of the table. I’m sure the home win double will be a popular bet! We kick the day off with Manchester United hosting Leicester, and they are currently trading the shortest price of the day at 1.66. Leicester come into this game in good form however, they have finally moved away from the relegation fight (for the second time) and they have scored eight goals in their last two games. I wouldn’t say that they completely hammered Aston Villa and Spurs, but they definitely took their chances and they must be full of confidence coming here. It will be interesting to see what ten Hag does when picking his starting XI – United have a very important run of games coming up. Barcelona in the second leg of the Europa League and then the League Cup Final next weekend. He opted to rest some players against Leeds, maybe he might feel he can get away with doing that again? For me that would be risky given that Leicester have seemingly found their goal scoring touch.
It’s definitely a trading angle here to keep an eye on the team news, and we should see some market movement when the news breaks. United put in a great performance away to Barcelona on Thursday night – they might even say they were unlucky to draw given they took a 2-1 lead and finished the game with a higher xG figure. Even though they beat Leeds last weekend, their performance wasn’t great and they conceded a host of chances. It was classic Leeds not taking their chances! Leicester actually have a good record against United in recent times – United have only won once in the last six meetings in all competitions. I wouldn’t be rushing to back the home side at 1.66 to be honest, and if anything they are a tempting lay. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here however because this game screams goals. Both sides have been creating a lot lately, but they have also been leaking goals and chances – especially Leicester. We should have a very entertaining game here, and at 1.65 Over 2.5 goals is worthy of a Max Bet for me. I’d be very surprised if we didn’t see plenty of goals between these two.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.65 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MunLei
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Manchester United won the reverse fixture 1-0 against Leicester, ending a run of four Premier League games without a win against the Foxes (D2 L2).
● Leicester have avoided defeat in their last two Premier League away games against Man Utd (W1 D1) – they last had a longer league run without defeat at Old Trafford between August 1972 and April 1977 (W1 D3).
● Manchester United have scored at least once in each of their last 27 Premier League games against Leicester – only Manchester City (28 against Newcastle) have had a longer scoring run against an opponent in the competition.
● After losing their final two games of 2021-22 and the first two games of this campaign, Manchester United have now lost just three of their last 21 Premier League matches (W14 D4). Indeed, since (and including) their first win of the season against Liverpool on August 22nd, Manchester United have earned more Premier League points than any other side (46).
● Leicester have won their last two Premier League games despite conceding first both times, beating Aston Villa 4-2 and Tottenham 4-1. There have been four previous occasions of a side winning three Premier League games in a row despite conceding first each time – Leeds in November 1997, Manchester United in January 2003, Arsenal in March 2012 (4) and Liverpool in May 2022.
● Leicester are looking to win three consecutive Premier League games for the first time since January 2021, while they’ve scored more goals in these last two victories (8) than they had in their previous eight league games combined (7).
● Manchester United have scored a league-high eight Premier League goals via substitutes this season, while no side has conceded more goals to subs than Leicester City (7).
● Marcus Rashford has scored in each of his last six Premier League home games; only two Manchester United players have scored in more consecutive appearances at Old Trafford in the competition – Wayne Rooney (8 between December 2009-March 2010) and Cristiano Ronaldo (10 between March-November 2008).
● Leicester’s James Maddison has been involved in 21 goals in his last 19 Premier League starts, scoring 13 and assisting eight. However, he’s faced Manchester United without ever scoring more often than any other opponent in the competition (8 games).
● Kelechi Iheanacho has been involved in five goals in his last two Premier League games for Leicester (2 goals, 3 assists) as many as he had in his previous 27 appearances (3 goals, 2 assists).
TOTTENHAM V WEST HAM
4.30pm We have a London Derby to finish the weekend in the Premier League as Spurs host West Ham. Both clubs have been having a tough time this season, and their managers look like they have aged quickly this year! West Ham are hanging around the relegation battle despite having a very impressive looking squad on paper – a squad that was challenging for European spots over the last few season. Spurs have dropped out of the Top Four since the World Cup, and they are still going backwards. Another loss last weekend against Leicester really gives Newcastle a nice cushion, especially considering that Newcastle have dropped a lot of points recently too. Spurs were outplayed by AC Milan midweek in the Champions League, but away from home I don’t think they will be too unhappy with a 1-0 loss – AC Milan finished the game with an xG of over 2.0, so things could have been worse. It’s hard to have confidence in either side here, and Spurs at 1.88 doesn’t make much appeal to me. I would lean towards laying them because if West Ham can repeat their two performances against Newcastle and Chelsea recently then they should get something here. Newcastle and Chelsea (despite not winning many games) have been creating high xG figures recently, but West Ham kept them down to 1.51 and 1.24, earning two 1-1 draws which was a fair reflection of the matches in my opinion.
I think the only thing you can say about Spurs at the moment is that they are hard to predict. They produced their best performance of the season in their last home game with a 1-0 win over Manchester City, and then in true Spurs fashion they lost to Leicester in their next game while conceding four goals! If only Spurs played Manchester City every week, they would be world beaters – it’s bizarre how they keep their best performances for City. What Spurs do have in their favour here is they have been a lot more comfortable at home this season. All of their poor performances have come away from home, and West Ham haven’t been great away from home this season either. They’ve only managed six points from their 11 games. I feel Spurs will win, but the 1.88 is too short for me so I’m going to stay out of the match odds market. This is another game that screams goals because both sides have been conceding a host of sloppy goals this season. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.92 and that looks cracking value in what should be an entertaining game.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.92 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TotWes
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● After keeping five consecutive home clean sheets against West Ham between 2006 and 2011, Spurs have recorded just one shutout in their last 10 against the Hammers in the Premier League. However, they’ve lost just twice in this run (W5 D3).
● Only once in the last eight seasons have West Ham avoided defeat in both Premier League meetings with Tottenham, doing so in 2020-21. In that campaign, they came from 3-0 down in the last 10 minutes to draw 3-3 at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
● Tottenham lost 2-0 against Arsenal in their last Premier League home London derby, having won five in a row before this. They’ve not lost consecutive home league London derbies since November 2004.
● West Ham have lost their last five away London derbies in the Premier League, since winning 3-2 at Crystal Palace on New Year’s Day 2022. It’s their longest such losing run since a streak of six between April 2009 and October 2010.
● Tottenham have scored a league-low share 36% of their Premier League goals in the first half of games this season (15/42), while only Bournemouth (24) and Southampton (20) have conceded more often before half-time than Spurs (18).
● Tottenham have lost four of their seven Premier League games so far in 2023 (W3), as many as they had lost in their previous 22 before this (W13 D5).
● West Ham have taken five points from their last three Premier League games (W1 D2), as many as they had won in their previous 10 (W1 D2 L7). The Hammers have come from behind to draw their last two league games (1-1 vs Newcastle and Chelsea).
● Tottenham have scored more goals from corners than any other side in the Premier League this season (11). However, West Ham are the only side so far yet to concede a goal from a corner this term.
● Four of West Ham’s last five Premier League victories against Tottenham have seen Michail Antonio score, with the Jamaican netting in three different 1-0 victories in that run. No player has ever scored in four different 1-0 victories against a specific opponent in Premier League history.
● No player has scored either the opening goal (7) or the winning goal (8) in more different Premier League games this season than Tottenham striker Harry Kane.
