THE STRIKER: previews Sunday’s Premier League action with extended stats and a recommended bet. The weekend highlight is MAN CITY v LIVERPOOL at 4.30pm.

The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!

Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.

WEST BROM V TOTTENHAM

12pm What a fantastic day ahead in the Premier League! We have some cracking fixtures to get stuck into. We start the day early on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with West Brom hosting Spurs. Jose Mourinho will be happier this week after his side won midweek in the Champions League. It was only Ludogorets but they were very impressive creating an xG of 4.12. In fairness to Spurs they have been excellent this season. They have been unlucky, probably careless, at times but they are creating a lot of chances. For example, in their very unlucky 1-1 draw against Newcastle they created an xG of 3.49 and then had that horrible VAR decision at the end.

West Brom have been pretty poor this season. Apart from their crazy 3-3 draw with Chelsea when they benefitted from some huge Chelsea errors at the back, they have created very little. Even in the Chelsea game, they were gifted the goals. With the volume of chances Spurs are creating at the moment, I just can’t see them not outscoring this West Brom side and for me they look ten ticks too big at 1.55.

The Striker Says:
Three points win Tottenham to beat West Brom at 1.55 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwbatot

MATCH STATS

  • West Brom won their last Premier League encounter with Spurs, 1-0 back in May 2018. They’ve not won back-to-back league games against Tottenham since November 1984.
  • Tottenham have conceded just six goals in their last eight Premier League meetings with West Brom, and never more than once in a match in that run.
  • 46% of the Premier League meetings between West Brom and Spurs have ended in draws (11/24). Of all the fixtures to have been played at least 20 times in the competition, only Aston Villa v West Ham has ended level more regularly (48% – 20/42).
  • Tottenham lost their last Premier League game against a promoted side, 1-3 vs Sheffield United in July. They’ve not lost consecutive such matches since April 2012, against Norwich and QPR under Harry Redknapp.
  • West Brom are winless in their last eight Premier League games (D3 L5). The Baggies have shipped 18 goals in this run and failed to score in five different games.
  • Since losing their opening game of the season against Everton, Tottenham are now on the longest current unbeaten run in the Premier League (W4 D2). Coming into this weekend’s games, Spurs are also the highest scorers in the Premier League this term (18).
  • Tottenham have won all three of their away Premier League games this season – only three times in their history have they won their opening four on the road in a league campaign, doing so in 1949-50 when winning the second tier, 1960-61 when winning the top-flight title and in 2017-18 (finished third).
  • Tottenham striker Harry Kane has scored seven goals in his seven Premier League appearances against West Brom, one of nine sides he averages a goal-per-game or better against in the competition.
  • Coming into the weekend’s games, no player has scored more Premier League goals this season than Tottenham’s Son Heung-min (8), while teammate Harry Kane has provided the most assists this term (8). The duo are the only players to have reached double figures for goal involvements so far in the Premier League this season (Kane 14, Son 10).
  • Gareth Bale netted Tottenham’s winner last time out against Brighton, while he also scored the winning goal the last time he faced West Brom in the Premier League (1-0 at the Hawthorns in February 2013).

LEICESTER V WOLVES

2pm This fixture has the most open market of the day and it won’t be a surprise to see a very close game here. It’s fair to say that while both sides are very solid, I feel that Leicester should be winning this one. Apart from two wins against Crystal Palace and Fulham, Wolves have been pretty poor lately. They were exceptionally looking to beat Leeds looking at the xG figures and they had to settle for a 1-1 draw against Newcastle. Their problem has been a lack of chances created. Even against West Ham they could only create an xG 0.61 in a 4-0 loss. If they don’t start creating more chances they will struggle this season.

Leicester have had a very up and down season already! After beating Man City 5-2 they went on to lose 3-0 against West Ham and 1-0 against Aston Villa. The Europa League has been very good for them, and it looks like they have found their goal scoring touch and confidence again. They are playing lower quality sides, but it has spilled over into the Premier League with wins against Arsenal and Leeds. I think this is a good time to back Leicester – they are clearly playing better football than Wolves and at 2.44 they are very much worth backing.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Leicester to beat Wolves at 2.44 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQleiwol

MATCH STATS

  • Leicester have lost just one of their last 23 home league games against Wolves (W13 D9), with that defeat coming in the Championship in May 2007 (1-4).
  • In the top-flight, Wolves are winless in their last 10 away games against Leicester (D4 L6) since a 2-1 win in December 1971. Wolves have failed to score in six of their last seven top-flight matches at Filbert Street/King Power Stadium.
  • Half of the six Premier League games between Leicester and Wolves have finished 0-0, with the other three producing a total of 16 goals.
  • No team has won more Premier League games than Leicester so far this season (5), while coming into this weekend’s games only Spurs (18) have scored more goals than the Foxes (17) so far.
  • Leicester have lost three of their last four home Premier League games (W1), as many as in their previous 20 at the King Power Stadium (W12 D5 L3). The Foxes have lost their last two at home by an aggregate score of 0-4 – they’ve not lost three home league games in a row without scoring since September 1983.
  • Wolves are unbeaten in their last four Premier League games (W3 D1), earning as many points (10) in this run as they had from their previous 27 available in the competition (W3 D1 L5).
  • Leicester have the best shot conversion rate in the Premier League this season, netting with 26.2% of their efforts (17/65).
  • Rayan Ait Nouri scored on his Premier League debut for Wolves against Crystal Palace. He is looking to become only the fourth teenager to score in his first two Premier League appearances, after Alan Smith (1998, Leeds), Federico Macheda (2009, Man Utd) and Anthony Martial (2015, Man Utd).
  • Leicester’s Jamie Vardy has scored seven goals in his six Premier League games this season, as many as he had in his previous 19 appearances in the competition. 69% of Vardy’s Premier League goals have come since he’s turned 30 (76/110) – of the 29 players to score at least 100 in the competition, only Ian Wright netted a higher percentage aged 30+ (82% – 93/113).
  • Leicester’s Youri Tielemans has scored three goals in his seven Premier League appearances this season, already matching his tally from both 2018-19 (13 games) and 2019-20 (37 games) in the competition.

MANCHESTER CITY V LIVERPOOL

4.30pm The fixture everyone has been waiting for this weekend! Liverpool were crowned Champions by the time the sides met here in July but City put them in their place with a 4-0 win. It’ll be very interesting to see what City can do now Liverpool have something to play for, as Liverpool won in Anfield 3-1 with an excellent display. It’s a shame fixtures like this are behind closed doors, but it’s a fascinating fixture nonetheless. Liverpool are without their star man at the back in Virgil van Dijk but they ran riot midweek in the Champions League with a 5-0 win over Atalanta.

City look too short to me at 2.06. I won’t be reading much into the last meeting here as Liverpool had nothing to play for and were obviously in celebration mode. I fascinated to see what type of performance we get from City here as they have been lacklustre this season. I feel that is the best way to describe them. Just look at their xG numbers – they aren’t creating the same volume of chances as they usually would. You can easily see why they have dropped a lot of points already this season. I feel they will drop more again here against a top quality Liverpool side. It’s a City lay for me at 2.06.

The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Manchester City to beat Liverpool at 2.06 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQmcilfc

MATCH STATS

  • Manchester City have won their last three home league games against Liverpool by an aggregate score of 11-1. They’ve not won four consecutively against the Reds at home since March 1937.
  • Liverpool haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 10 away league games against Man City, conceding 26 goals in total in that run (W1 D2 L7).
  • Manchester City have won nine of their last 10 Premier League games against reigning champions, with the only exception in that run being a 2-4 loss at Leicester in December 2016. However, they’ve won none of their last 11 when facing Liverpool as the previous season’s title winner (D2 L9) since a 3-1 win in October 1977.
  • Manchester City are looking to win consecutive league games for the first time this season. The Citizens have scored exactly once in each of their last four matches – they last went five consecutive Premier League matches without netting more than once back in March 2009.
  • Liverpool have conceded 15 goals in their seven Premier League games this season, as many as they shipped in their first 26 league games last term. Indeed, it’s the most the Reds have conceded seven games into a league campaign since 1964-65 (also 15).
  • Since the start of last season, Liverpool have won a league-high 28 points from losing positions in the Premier League, coming from behind to win each of their last two games. The Reds have never won three consecutive Premier League games when conceding first, with Arsenal in March 2012 (4) the last to do so in the competition.
  • In their six Premier League games this season, Man City have scored just nine goals (1.5 per game) and have an expected goals (xG) figure of 7.9 (1.3 per game). It’s their lowest xG per game rate in the competition since we have this data available (2013-14), while it’s their lowest goals-per-game rate in the league since 2007-08 (1.2).
  • Manchester City boss Pep Guardiola has lost more games against Liverpool’s Jürgen Klopp than he has any other manager in his career (8).
  • Mohamed Salah has scored 80 Premier League goals in 115 games for Liverpool since joining the Reds in 2017, at least nine more than any other player in the division in that time.
  • Two of Diogo Jota’s three goals for Liverpool in the Premier League this season have been as a substitute – no other player has scored more than once from the bench in the competition so far this term.

ARSENAL V ASTON VILLA

7.15pm We end Super Sunday with two very different sides! After a brilliant start to the season, the Aston Villa bubble has been burst with two straight losses against Leeds and Southampton. They played well against Southampton after going 4-0 down, so perhaps their good form isn’t over yet. Arsenal have been on a high recently with easy wins in the Europa League and a 1-0 win against Manchester United. It must be noted that their Europa League opposition play their football at a much lower level but it’s good for their confidence nonetheless.

For me the jury is still out on Arsenal. United have been pretty poor this season, especially at Old Trafford where they haven’t created many chances at all. And Arsenal have been lucky to win a couple of games this season. Perhaps that’s what they needed – a little bit of luck to add to the belief that is something lacking when things get tough. This is a very interest fixture, as Villa are playing pretty solid football and should be a good test for Arsenal. I think Arsenal are a little short at 1.74, and are worth a small lay in what should be a good game to watch.

The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Arsenal to beat Aston Villa at 1.74 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQarlavl

MATCH STATS

  • Arsenal have won their last three home league games against Aston Villa by an aggregate score of 12-2. However, only Chelsea (5), Man City and Man Utd (4 each) have won more Premier League away games at the Emirates than Aston Villa (3).
  • Aston Villa are looking to win consecutive league games against Arsenal for the first time since May/December 1998, though both victories back then came at Villa Park.
  • Aston Villa’s 1-0 win against Arsenal at Villa Park in July ended a run of seven straight defeats against the Gunners in all competitions, across which they had conceded 23 goals.
  • Arsenal lost 0-1 against Leicester in their last home league game, their first home league defeat of 2020. They last lost back-to-back league games at the Emirates in December 2019 (a run of three), while they last failed to score in consecutive games at home in February 2016.
  • Aston Villa are the only side yet to concede away from home in the Premier League this season, while they were the only side not to keep a clean sheet on the road in the competition last season. Their away games have seen fewer goals scored than any other Premier League side this season (4), while their home games have seen the most goals in the competition so far (20 – F11 A9).
  • Having won their first four Premier League games this season, Aston Villa have now lost their last two. They’ve conceded as many goals in these two defeats as they had in their previous nine league games combined (7).
  • Arsenal have conceded fewer goals than any other Premier League side this season (7). However, the Gunners haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last six home league games, since beating Norwich 4-0 in July.
  • Arsenal are averaging 18 open play sequences of 10+ passes per Premier League game this season, compared to just 11.6 last season. Indeed, the Gunners have had more build-up attacks (10+ pass sequences that end with a shot or touch in the opposition box) this season than any other Premier League side (27).
  • Arsenal captain Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang ended his five-game Premier League goal drought with the winning penalty at Manchester United last time out. The Gabonese international has scored 62.5% of his Premier League goals on Sundays (35 in 43 games on Sunday, 21 in 49 games on all other days).
  • Coming into this weekend’s games, only Spurs duo Harry Kane (14) and Son Heung-min (10) have been involved in more Premier League goals this season than Aston Villa’s Jack Grealish (8 – 4 goals, 4 assists).

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