SUNDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Sunday’s four games with FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
FULHAM V ARSENAL
2pm It’s a busier than usual Super Sunday from the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week with four fixtures! With no Friday or Monday night football this weekend, it’s been a hectic weekend. We have three games kicking off at 2pm, and the first of which is a London Derby between Fulham and Arsenal. Fulham are having a dream season so far, but they had their first loss for a while last weekend against Brentford. They are still living the dream starting the weekend in 7th, especially considering they were one of the favourites to go down this season after coming up from the Championship! The Fulham stats tell a different story though, they have conceded a lot of chances this season and they have been lucky to have collected the points they have. Their average xG conceded this season is a very high 1.9. Their actual goals conceded works out at only 1.3, so there is a big difference there. As I said last weekend, eventually sides will start taking their chances against them and as the season goes on I can see them sliding down the table. Brentford created an xG of 2.53 against them last weekend, and scored three goals. Arsenal should get a lot of chances here, and they will be a popular bet at 1.63.
Arsenal had a very entertaining 2-2 draw on Thursday night in the Europa League away to Sporting Lisbon. It was a yo-yo game where they had the lead, went 2-1 down and then got back to 2-2. It was a very end-to-end game, and on balance a draw was a fair result and also a result that Arsenal won’t be unhappy with. Arsenal have really had a backbone this season, especially away from home. They have a belief about them this season that we haven’t saw for a long time with Arsenal – the win over Bournemouth last weekend was a classic example of that really. Arsenal have also been superb away from home this season – they have 31 points from their 13 away games, which is actually seven more points than Manchester City in the same number of away games. With Fulham conceding so many chances and Arsenal creating so many, I can only see one winner here. The 1.63 is cracking value too in my opinion, and Arsenal are worth a Max Bet at the odds.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Arsenal to beat Fulham at 1.63 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FulArs
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Fulham are winless in nine Premier League meetings with Arsenal (D2 L7) since a 2-1 home win in January 2012. They’ve lost all four against the Gunners at Craven Cottage in this run.
● Arsenal have won 71% of their Premier League games against Fulham (22/31), their highest win rate against an opponent they’ve faced 20+ times in the competition.
● Arsenal have won all four of their away Premier League London derbies this season by an aggregate score of 8-0. In the history of the English Football League, no side has ever won five consecutive away London derbies while keeping a clean sheet each time.
● Fulham have lost 16 of their last 18 Premier League games against sides starting the day top of the table (W2), including each of the last nine in a row. The exceptions in this run were victories in March 2006 (vs Chelsea) and March 2009 (vs Manchester United).
● Fulham have lost just three of their 13 Premier League home games this season (W6 D4), going down to Newcastle, Manchester United and Tottenham. Even if they lose all of their remaining home games this term, it would be fewer defeats (9) than they suffered at Craven Cottage in any of their previous three Premier League campaigns (13 in 2020-21, 10 in 2018-19 & 11 in 2013-14).
● Arsenal have won a league-high five Premier League games when conceding the first goal this season, only winning more such games in the competition in 1999-00 (7), 2003-04 (6) and 2011-12 (6). The Gunners have won a league-high 15 points from losing positions so far this term.
● Arsenal have scored three 90th minute winning goals in the Premier League this term, their joint-most in a single campaign in the competition (also three in 1999-00, 2009-10, 2011-12 and 2016-17). These three winners have all come in their last eight games (against Man Utd, Aston Villa and Bournemouth).
● Bukayo Saka has generated more chances following a carry (moving 5+ metres with the ball) than any other player in the Premier League this season (44), with the Arsenal winger attempting 21 shots and creating 23 chances for a teammate in this manner.
● Manor Solomon has scored in each of his last five appearances for Fulham across all competitions (five goals). Coming into the weekend, the only Premier League players who have recorded a longer scoring streak in 2022-23 are Erling Haaland (10) and Marcus Rashford (7).
● Arsenal’s Reiss Nelson has made just three Premier League appearances this season (all as a sub), playing just 85 minutes across these games. However, he’s chalked up five goal involvements in these matches (3 goals, 2 assists), and become just the second player to both score and assist a goal in two different games as a sub within a single season, after Vladimir Smicer in 2001-02.
MANCHESTER UNITED V SOUTHAMPTON
2pm Manchester United aim to get back to winning ways in the Premier League against Southampton next after their embarrassing 7-0 loss against Liverpool last weekend. Of course, they already got back to winning ways on Thursday night in the Europa League – a comfortable 4-1 win over Real Betis that could have easily been more. Their xG was 4.89 in the end! Even though the second leg is away from home, they have more than one foot in the Quarter-Final now. They were very well backed on Thursday in the markets, and it will be interesting to see the weight of money on ten Hag’s men here. They are trading 1.37 at the time of writing, but they went from around 1.45 to 1.32 on Thursday! Southampton recorded a huge win last weekend over Leicester, they stayed in the bottom three but moved off the bottom spot on goal difference. The relegation battle is going to be very tight this season, and there really isn’t much between the bottom six. Southampton’s season won’t depend on results away to Manchester United, and surely they’ll be viewing this game as a shot to nothing – they did manage a 1-0 win away to Chelsea recently! Southampton actually haven’t been poor away from home this season, unlike other sides in the relegation battle, they have more points away from home compared to at home!
It’s hard to see past a United win here, but I feel Southampton can keep the score line respectable. With United trading 1.37 in the match odds market, it’s wise to look around the side markets for some value. The main focus here will be the goal and the handicap markets. United created a lot of chances on Thursday night here, but I would expect Southampton to be a little more solid at the back. They have been conceding chances this year, but their average xG conceded is only 1.6 which is lower than most sides around them. The market is expecting goals, with Over 2.5 goals trading 1.7 and the market isn’t expecting United to score them all. Southampton are odds on with a 1.5 goal handicap. I have to say, I like Under 2.5 goals here at 2.36 – I can see United having to grind out a 1-0 or 2-0 win in a hard fought game. This is a game for low stakes, but I’m happy with Unders at the odds.
The Striker Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.36 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MunSou
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● After losing back-to-back home league games against Southampton in January 2015/January 2016, Manchester United are unbeaten in their last six against them at Old Trafford. They’ve alternated between a victory and a draw each time in that run, drawing 1-1 last season.
● Southampton are winless in their last 14 meetings with Manchester United in all competitions (D7 L7), since a 1-0 win at Old Trafford in January 2016.
● Manchester United have won 36 points from losing positions in Premier League games against Southampton – no side has won more points from behind against an opponent (Liverpool also 36 against Newcastle).
● Manchester United lost 7-0 at Liverpool last time out in the Premier League, and haven’t lost consecutive league games since May/August last year (4 in a row). Their seven goals conceded in that defeat was just one fewer than they shipped in their 10 previous league games combined (8).
● Southampton have won two of their three Premier League games under Ruben Selles (L1), as many as they had in their previous 17 under Ralph Hasenhüttl and Nathan Jones (D2 L13).
● Southampton are the only team to have won more than half of their Premier League points in away games so far this season, with 12 of their 21 points coming on the road (57%).
● All six of Southampton’s Premier League wins this season have been by a one-goal margin. They’re the only team yet to win by more than one goal so far this term, while as it stands it’s their most victories in a single Premier League season without winning by 2+ goals.
● Marcus Rashford has scored in each of his last seven Premier League home games; only two Manchester United players have scored in more consecutive appearances at Old Trafford in the competition – Wayne Rooney (8 between December 2009-March 2010) and Cristiano Ronaldo (10 between March-November 2008).
● Bruno Fernandes has been directly involved in six goals in his six Premier League games against Southampton (3 goals, 3 assists), netting Man Utd’s winner in the reverse fixture in August. Only against Leeds (8) has the Portuguese been involved in more goals in the competition.
● Southampton’s James Ward-Prowse has scored 27% of his direct free-kick shots in the Premier League this season (3/11), but has failed to convert either of his two penalties taken this term. No Southampton player has ever missed three penalties in a single Premier League campaign.
WEST HAM V ASTON VILLA
2pm With Manchester United and Arsenal both involved in the 2pm games, West Ham v Aston Villa could easily get lost! It’s a classic fixture that only gets a few minutes on Match Of The Day unless anything dramatic happens. Speaking of “classic examples” is there a better example of “too good to go down” than West Ham this season? They have a cracking squad, the same squad who battles for the European spots last season and now they started this weekend only one point outside the bottom three. It would have almost been a surprise for a lot of casual football fans to see them play in the Europa Conference League on Thursday night! The Hammers come into this game as the favourites, but this is also the most open market of the day. Only because we have three odds on favourites in the other games, West Ham are still reasonably short favourites at 2.26. That prices definitely looks a little short to me – West Ham conceded four last weekend against Brighton and then three prior to that against Manchester United. It must be highlighted though that those two games came away from home, and West Ham have been poor away from home all season.
David Moyes side has only managed six points away from home all season, which is the joint-lowest in the Premier League this season. From that point of view, West Ham will be happy to have home advantage here but it’s not like Aston Villa have been poor away from home. They have been grinding away results, and Unai Emery has definitely improved them since coming in. They are still a pretty average side with a limited squad talent wise, but Emery has them creating more chances. Based purely on the stats, West Ham have been playing better football this season – they create more on average than Aston Villa and concede less, but those are overall stats including when Gerrard was Villa manager. I just look at this game and feel we’ll see a very close game, closer than odds of 2.26 suggest so from a value point of view I’m happy with a small West Ham lay at the odds.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) West Ham to beat Aston Villa at 2.26 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WesAst
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● West Ham have won their last five Premier League meetings with Aston Villa – in their top-flight history, only against Coventry (9 between 1983 and 1987) and Villa themselves (6 between 1964 and 1967) have they won more consecutively.
● Aston Villa are winless in their last nine Premier League games against West Ham (D3 L6), since a 1-0 home win in May 2015. They’ve lost six of their last eight against the Hammers, as many as in their previous 35 (W12 D17).
● Aston Villa have lost five of their last six Premier League away games in London, though they did win their last such visit 2-0 against Spurs in January. They last won consecutive away league games in the capital in November 2020.
● After losing their last three home league games of 2022, West Ham are unbeaten at the London Stadium in 2023 (W2 D1). They’ve conceded just one goal at home so far this calendar year, while scoring seven themselves.
● Aston Villa have won their last two Premier League games, beating Everton 2-0 and Crystal Palace 1-0. They last won three in a row in March 2022, keeping a clean sheet in each game in that run.
● No team has scored more Premier League goals in the opening 15 minutes of games this season than Aston Villa (9). The Villans have also conceded a league-high nine goals in this timeframe, but West Ham are the only team yet to score in this period so far.
● West Ham manager David Moyes is unbeaten in his last 13 Premier League games against Aston Villa (W8 D5) since a 1-0 loss with Everton in August 2010. Overall, Moyes has only won more Premier League games against Fulham (17) than he has against the Villans (12).
● West Ham striker Danny Ings scored six Premier League goals for Aston Villa this season; he could be the first player to score for and against the Villans in the same Premier League campaign, while he would be the first player to do so with any team since Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Manchester United in 2017-18.
● Pablo Fornals has scored in each of his last three Premier League games against Aston Villa – the only West Ham players to score in four consecutive appearances against an opponent in the competition are Carlton Cole against Fulham and Manuel Lanzini against Crystal Palace.
● Ollie Watkins has scored in each of his last three Premier League away games – the only Aston Villa player to do so in four consecutive games is Dwight Yorke between March and May 1998.
NEWCASTLE V WOLVES
4.30pm We end the weekend with Newcastle hosting Wolves! Not the most glamorous prime TV Sunday afternoon slot, especially when we had Liverpool v Manchester United this time last week! Although this might not be the most glamorous tie, it is a very interesting one. Wolves managed another win last weekend, this time over Spurs, and that was another huge boost in their battle to stay up this season. At one stage, that looked very dodgy to be honest but they have recorded plenty of points since the World Cup. They started this weekend five points way from the bottom three. Despite Wolves beating Liverpool and Spurs recently, Newcastle will view this as a very winnable fixture. Toe be honest too, they need a win here. They have had a very difficult fixture list having had to play Liverpool and Manchester City in their last two Premier League games, and then lost the Carabao Cup Final in between to Manchester United. You can forgive them those losses against top clubs, and the main reason they have fallen out of the Top Four was all their draws before those games. They were dropping points against sides they should be beating – Leeds, Crystal Palace, West Ham and Bournemouth are all closer to the bottom of the table. I know Newcastle finished those games with good xG figures, but football is a results business and you have to take your chances. Newcastle must be a little low on confidence, and I wouldn’t be rushing to back them at 1.73.
While Newcastle dropped down to sixth after last weekend, it isn’t all bad news. They have two games in hand on Spurs in fourth and a game in hand on Liverpool in fifth. They still have a good chance of finishing in the Top Four, but they can’t afford to drop more points. In fairness it’s been an incredible season from Newcastle – we all expected improvement given the money behind them now, but not this much improvement so quickly! I’m happy to stay away from the match odds market here, and I like Under 2.5 goals at 1.77. Just a few ticks above the Newcastle price, I feel it’s a much better value bet. Newcastle have been struggling to score goals lately – even when creating good chances they aren’t putting them away. Wolves will very likely sit back here, and they have grinded out plenty of results lately too. I actually wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a 0-0 here, but I like Unders at the odds.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.77 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NewWol
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Newcastle’s 1-0 win in this exact fixture last season ended a run of five home league games without a win against Wolves. They last beat them in consecutive meetings at St James’ Park in December 1977.
● Since their return to the Premier League in 2018, Wolves have conceded exactly once in all nine of their meetings with Newcastle (W2 D6 L1).
● Only Chelsea vs Manchester United (14), Arsenal vs Tottenham (12) and Aston Villa vs Newcastle (11) have finished 1-1 in the Premier League more often than Newcastle vs Wolves (9), despite this fixture only taking place on 15 occasions previously.
● Of all Premier League fixtures to have been played at least 15 times, Newcastle vs Wolves has seen the highest percentage of meetings end in draws (67% – 10/15), and the highest percentage of meetings where both teams have scored (93% – 14/15).
● Newcastle have lost their last three matches in all competitions, having lost just twice in their first 29 this season. They’ve failed to score in each of these three defeats, last losing four in a row without reply in January 2021.
● After a run of six consecutive clean sheets, Newcastle have now conceded in each of their last four Premier League games (D2 L2). They’ve shipped six goals across these four games, one more than they had in their previous 15 league games combined (5).
● Wolves have won five of their 11 Premier League games under Julen Lopetegui (D2 L4), with only five teams winning more since the Spaniard’s arrival (Arsenal, Man City, Man Utd, Fulham, Liverpool). Indeed, Wolves’ previous five victories had come across a spell of 29 games.
● This match pits the team with the fewest goals conceded (Newcastle, 17) against the side with the joint-fewest goals scored (Wolves, 19) in the Premier League this season. Wolves also have the lowest shot conversion rate this season (6.6%), while Newcastle have conceded just 6.6% of their shots faced this term (17/256) – a league-low.
● In his English league career, Newcastle striker Callum Wilson has played more games (8) and more minutes (661) against Wolves without scoring than he has versus any other opponent.
● With one goal and two assists, Wolves’ Raúl Jiménez has been directly involved in three goals in his last three Premier League games against Newcastle. However, it’s been 19 games and over a year since he scored a Premier League goal (10th March 2022 against Watford), with the Mexican having 28 shots in this time.
