SUNDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Sunday’s Premier League games between WEST HAM v SOUTHAMPTON and NEWCASTLE v MAN U both with FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
WEST HAM V SOUTHAMPTON
2pm It’s great to have the Premier League back after the International break, and we have a fantastic Super Sunday in store on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We have a massive relegation battle, and then a repeat of the Carabao Cup Final in the prime TV slot later. We kick the action off with West Ham hosting Southampton, and this is a proper relegation six pointer with both sides sitting in the bottom three. It’s fair to say that not many Premier League fans have believed that West Ham are in trouble this season – a loss here would surely change that however! West Ham have an excellent squad on paper, and their xG figures aren’t too bad either – they just haven’t been able to grind out results this season. They are creating more chances than they are conceding on average this season, so you’d have to expect them to move up the table. That being said, you never know what the pressure can do! Southampton have managed to get three results from their last four games, but they still sit bottom of the table. Two draws against Manchester United and Spurs, as well as a win against Leicester, have put them right back into the mix to stay up. They are only one point behind West Ham, and there are so many sides in the relegation battle this season Southampton have given themselves a decent chance of staying up.
Despite their recent results, Southampton remain the favourites to go down this season. They will surely view this game as a good chance to pick up some points though. They have actually been better on the road this season – they have recorded three more points away from home compared to at home from the same number of games. West Ham will be happy to have home advantage however; they have only managed six points away from home all season which is the joint-lowest record in the Premier League this season. West Ham have had a problem scoring goals this season, and I feel Southampton will set out for a draw here. That plan could easily work given how poor the Hammers have been in front of goal. The West Ham lay at 1.79 is a very tempting bet because I expect a closer game than those odds suggest; however Under 2.5 goals is the stand out bet here at 1.83. Neither side have done well in front of goal this season, and in such an important game I can’t see either side being too open either. I even wouldn’t be surprised to see a 0-0 full-time score but Under 2.5 goals looks cracking value at 1.83.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.83 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WesSou
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● West Ham have lost just one of their last 10 Premier League games against Southampton (W6 D3), though that was a 3-2 defeat in this exact fixture last season.
● Southampton are looking to win consecutive league visits to West Ham for the first time since April 1992 – they’d lost four in a row at the Hammers before last season’s 3-2 victory.
● Coming into this weekend’s games, Southampton have picked up the highest share of their Premier League points this season away from home (57% – 13/23). Meanwhile, only Nottingham Forest (77%) have a higher share of points won at home in 2022-23 than West Ham (75% – 18/24).
● Since losing three straight home league games from November to December, West Ham are unbeaten in their last four at the London Stadium (W2 D2). Not since April 2022 have the Hammers gone longer without a home defeat in the Premier League (six games).
● Sides starting the day bottom of the Premier League have won 11 league matches this season, four more than the whole of last term (7), and the most in a single campaign in the competition since 2017-18 (12). Southampton have been responsible for three of these victories by bottom-placed sides in 2022-23, a joint- high (also Leicester).
● Southampton have picked up as many points in their six Premier League games under Rubén Sellés (8 – W2 D2 L2) as they had in their 17 league matches beforehand (W2 D2 L13).
● No other sides have kept fewer clean sheets in the Premier League this season than Southampton (4) and West Ham (5). For the Hammers, five clean sheets is their fewest at this stage of a top-flight season since 2018-19 under Manuel Pellegrini (4), while it is the lowest tally by a David Moyes side in their first 26 matches of a Premier League campaign since Sunderland in 2016-17 (4).
● Saïd Benrahma has more Premier League goal involvements than any other West Ham player this season (7 – 4 goals, 3 assists). The Algerian is looking to score in back-to-back Premier League appearances for the first time since December 2021, when one of those matches was at home to Southampton.
● Before the March international break, only Rodri (243) won possession more times than West Ham’s Declan Rice (232) in the Premier League this season, while, among midfielders, only Rodri again (300) made more progressive carries (moving 5+ metres upfield with the ball) than Rice (222) in the division this term.
● Coming into this weekend’s games, only Kieran Trippier (49) has created more chances from set plays than James Ward-Prowse (35) in the Premier League this season, while the Southampton skipper is the only player to create 25+ chances from both open play (27) and set pieces (35) in the division this term.
NEWCASTLE V MANCHESTER UNITED
4.30pm We have a repeat of the Carabao Cup Final as Newcastle host Manchester United. This should be a fascinating game, and it’s a sign of the times that Newcastle come into the game as the favourites. They have been playing excellent football this season, there’s no doubt about that, but Manchester United beat them comfortably in the Carabao Cup and they will be confident of getting a result here. The major issue for United however is Casemiro is out after getting a red card before the International break. He’s been a key player for United this season, and they will miss him massively. Rashford picked up a knock and didn’t play for England as well, so he would have to be a little doubt to start. Newcastle are missing some players as well, and the team news could see some big market movement here – definitely a trading angle! The match odds at the time of writing currently trade; Newcastle 2.48, Manchester United 3.1 and the draw is 3.55. This is a huge game in the Top Four battle, and Newcastle start the game sitting three points behind United. Looking at the table, it’s probably Spurs in the most trouble because both sides have two games in hand on Spurs. United are one point ahead, while Newcastle are only two points behind Spurs – plus you have the added drama around Conte at the moment too.
Newcastle should be in a better position. They have dropped points in games they should have won – especially Bournemouth, Crystal Palace and Leeds. Here against Leeds, they finished with an xG of 2.85 in a 0-0 draw. Their average xG created this season is a very high 1.9 and they are only conceding an average of 1.1. Those stats are very solid, and they deserve to be sitting high up in the table. They are actually better stats than United ahead of them in the table – they are only creating an average xG of 1.7 and conceding more at 1.4. Erik ten Hag has done a wonderful job with United, but he still has more work to do. I’m going to keep stakes small here because of the Rashford worry and obviously Casemiro out too, but I expect a very close game here and I’m happy with the Newcastle lay at 2.48 from a value point of view. I would just have Newcastle a little higher in the market and United a little lower – there really isn’t much between the sides. Newcastle deserve to be the favourites, but the 2.48 is a few ticks too short in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Newcastle to beat Manchester United at 2.48 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NewMun
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Newcastle are winless in six Premier League games against Man Utd (D2 L4), though the last two have both been drawn – they’ve not gone three league games without defeat against the Red Devils since January 2012 (W1 D2).
● Manchester United have won more Premier League away games against Newcastle than any other side (14). However, they’ve lost two of their last five such visits (W2 D1), having lost just one of their previous 13 at St James’ Park.
● Following their goalless draw at Old Trafford in the reverse fixture, Newcastle are looking to keep a clean sheet in consecutive Premier League games against Manchester United for the first time since May 1997.
● Following a run of just one win in eight Premier League games (D5 L2), Newcastle have won their last two. The Magpies last three league victories have seen them score the winner in the 89th, 79th and 90th minute respectively.
● Manchester United have failed to score in their last two Premier League games, as many times as in their first 24 matches this season. The Red Devils last went three league games without a goal in February 2020 under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer.
● Coming into this weekend’s fixtures, only Bournemouth (38), Nottingham Forest (32) and Leicester City (30) have conceded more away goals in the Premier League this season than Man Utd (27). Indeed, only in four different Premier League campaigns have the Red Devils conceded more on the road – 1999-00 (29), 2001-02 (28), 2018-19 (29) and 2021-22 (35).
● On average, Newcastle’s Premier League games have been 98 minutes and 58 seconds this season, the third highest in the division. However, the ball has been in play on average for just 51 minutes and 41 seconds, the lowest in the competition this term.
● Man Utd’s Marcus Rashford has been involved in seven goals in his eight Premier League starts against Newcastle (4 goals, 3 assists) – only against Arsenal and Leicester (9 each) has he been involved in more.
● Alexander Isak has scored six goals in 10 Premier League appearances for Newcastle this season, including three in his last two. He could become just the third Swedish player to score in 3+ consecutive Premier League appearances after Freddie Ljungberg (5 in April 2002), and Zlatan Ibrahimovic (two runs of three in 2016).
● No player has scored more winning goals in the Premier League this season than Marcus Rashford, with nine of his 14 strikes being the winner. Only two Manchester United players have ever scored more winning goals in a single campaign in the competition – Cristiano Ronaldo (12 in 2007-08) and Wayne Rooney (10 in 2009-10).
