SUNDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Sunday’s two Premier League games between WEST HAM v ARSENAL and NOTTINGHAM FOREST v MANCHESTER UNITED both with FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
WEST HAM V ARSENAL
2pm We have another fascinating Super Sunday from the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week! We have Arsenal and Manchester United both in action away from home, and they are both reasonably strong favourites – they are trading around 1.6 to 1.72 at the time of writing; will they be a winning double? We kick off the day with West Ham hosting Arsenal. David Moyes was given some breathing space after his side beat Fulham 1-0 away from home last weekend. As we know from the Graham Potter situation at Chelsea, once boards and owners start saying “winning this game is vital” you know you’re in a bad position. Potter won the two games requested by Chelsea, if you believe the media, and then still got sacked a few weeks later. There’s no getting away from the fact Moyes is a man under immense pressure, but his side started the weekend with a three point cushion on the bottom three. Arsenal are also a side under pressure after dropping points last weekend against Liverpool. The gap is six points starting this weekend with Manchester City having a game in hand – the huge game will be City hosting Arsenal towards the end of the month. Arsenal really can’t afford to drop any more points, and it will be interesting to see how they react here.
Arsenal have bounced back very well from setbacks this season, and you couldn’t say that they don’t have any backbone now. Arteta has definitely given them a strength, and that has produced a lot of points away from home. Even dropping points last weekend, they have collect five more points than Manchester City away from home this season. As I said above, Arsenal come into the game as the reasonably heavy favourites. They are trading 1.6 at the time of writing with West Ham 6.4 and the draw is 4.4. Arsenal fell apart in the second half against Liverpool last weekend, they conceded an xG of 4.40 which is one of the highest figures in the Premier League this season, but they should be much more comfortable against West Ham. The Hammers have been poor all season, they have been especially poor in front of goal and have really struggled to convert their chances. Fulham had been playing poor football going into the game they won last weekend too. I feel this will be one way traffic for Arsenal, and they can quickly get back to winning ways. Their away form has been excellent this season and West Ham are there for the taking – at 1.6 I feel Arsenal are worth a Max Bet.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Arsenal to beat West Ham at 1.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WesArl
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● West Ham United have won just two of their last 29 Premier League games against Arsenal (D5 L22), winning 2-0 away in August 2015 and 1-0 at home in January 2019.
● Arsenal have only lost three of their 26 Premier League visits to West Ham (W14 D9) and have won nine of their last 14 away games against the Hammers (D4 L1).
● Arsenal have won eight Premier League games against West Ham after conceding the first goal, including a 3-1 victory in the reverse fixture at the Emirates in December. It’s both the most wins Arsenal have against an opponent when conceding first, and the most defeats West Ham have against a side when opening the scoring in the competition.
● Arsenal have won all five of their away London derbies in the Premier League this season, by an aggregate score of 11-0. Only twice before have they won six consecutive league derbies on the road, doing so in February 1989 and March 2014.
● West Ham have won two of their last three Premier League games (L1), as many as they had in their previous 14. They’re looking to win back-to-back league games for the first time since October but lost 5-1 in their last home game against Newcastle.
● Arsenal have won 11 Premier League away games this season, only winning more on the road in 2001-02 (14) and 2004-05 (12). The Gunners have the most wins (11), most points (35), most goals scored (30) and fewest goals conceded (11) of any team away from home in the Premier League this term.
● Arsenal have scored 72 goals from an xG of 60.1 in the Premier League this season, with their difference of +11.9 bettered only by Manchester City (12.2). Meanwhile, West Ham have scored 27 goals from an xG of 38.4, with their difference of -11.4 the biggest negative difference this term.
● Arsenal are the only team yet to lose a Premier League game when scoring the first goal this season, winning 18 and drawing three. However, they did let a two-goal lead slip in their 2-2 draw at Liverpool last time out.
● Gabriel Martinelli has been involved in four goals in his four Premier League starts for Arsenal against West Ham (3 goals, 1 assist), netting his first ever goal in the competition in this fixture in December 2019. Against no side has the Brazilian been involved in more league goals for the Gunners.
● Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka has had 45 ball carries ending in either a shot (21) or a chance created (24) in the Premier League this season, more than any other player. On top of this, no player has been involved in more goals following a carry (6) than Saka this term (3 goals, 3 assists).
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V MANCHESTER UNITED
4.30pm We finish Super Sunday with Nottingham Forest hosting Manchester United. Forest will be glad to have home advantage this week after slipping into the relegation zone last weekend – they have no momentum just at the wrong time of the season when sides around them are picking up points. Their main issues have been away from home though – they have only managed six points away from home all season which is the worst return in the Premier League this season. They face a Manchester United side here who have to pick themselves up after a desperate end to their Europa League Quarter-Final on Thursday. It was a dream first half in Old Trafford as they lead 2-0, but a crazy final ten minutes saw them lose the two goal advantage and now they go into the second leg away from home at 2-2. They had one foot in the Semi-Final, and now they have a tricky night ahead in Seville. I’m not saying this was a factor on Thursday night, but United have a very hectic schedule as they battle for a Top Four finish, the FA Cup and the Europa League. Erik ten Hag made some subs on Thursday night and that probably backfired given who they finished the game with up front. At half-time, it looked like they could put the tie to bed. They can’t afford to ease up in the Premier League either, so it’s another massive week for United. Surely the players will be out on their feet at some stage this season.
United come into the game trading as the odds on favourites – they are currently 1.72 at the time of writing, but before the game on Thursday they were closer to 1.65. Already we have a few layers about! United should have done much better on Thursday night, but they face a Forest side here in terrible form. Their last four xG figures have been 0.56, 1.15, 0.98 and 0.29. They just aren’t creating chances at the moment, and in fairness to United they have been solid at the back under ten Hag. Of course, they still have their moments but they are much improved. I don’t think this will be a pretty game for viewers, United will likely have to grind out an ugly win but I feel it’s a good time to meet Forest. They just aren’t playing well at the moment, and the 1.72 is worth taking on United. I’m going to keep stakes limited because they are missing players, and also this game in sandwiched in between the Europa League Quarter-Final games which isn’t ideal. That being said, I’d have United a little shorter than 1.7 given how the sides have played all season.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Manchester United to beat Nottingham Forest at 1.72 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NotMun
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● This is Nottingham Forest’s first home league game against Manchester United since February 1999, when they lost 8-1 under Ron Atkinson with Ole Gunnar Solskjaer scoring four times as a substitute.
● Manchester United have won their last nine games against Nottingham Forest in all competitions, beating them three times this season alone (once in league, twice in League Cup). The Red Devils have beaten a side four times in a season twice before, doing so against Sheffield Wednesday in 1993-94 and Chelsea in 2010-11.
● Manchester United have won their last six Premier League games against Nottingham Forest, scoring at least three goals on each occasion. In English top-flight history, only Man City (8 vs Wolves, 1902-1932) and Arsenal (7 vs Middlesbrough, 1930-1933) have won more consecutively against an opponent while netting 3+ goals.
● Nottingham Forest are winless (D3 L6) and without a clean sheet in their last nine Premier League games. In fact, Forest are winless in all 23 league games in which they’ve conceded this season (D8 L15), with all six of their victories being to nil.
● Manchester United have lost three of their last four away games in the Premier League (W1), having only lost three of their first 10 on the road this season (W5 D2). The Red Devils have conceded 29 away goals in 14 away league games this term; not since 1978-79 have they hit 30 goals conceded within their first 15 away matches of a league campaign.
● Nottingham Forest have conceded a league-high 14 Premier League goals from outside the box this season, with Fulham in 2013-14 the last team to ship more in a single campaign (18).
● Manchester United have scored a league-high share 84% of their Premier League goals from open play this season (37/44), with their seven goals from set piece situations (including penalties) the joint-fewest in the division.
● 88% of Brennan Johnson’s Premier League goals for Nottingham Forest this season have come in home games (7/8). Of all players to have scored more than five goals this term, only Roberto Firmino (89%) has netted a higher share at home than Johnson.
● Jesse Lingard has yet to score for Nottingham Forest in the Premier League this season. He could become the third former Manchester United player to score his first Premier League goal for a side against the Red Devils, after Keith Gillespie at Sheffield United in 2006-07, and Dan James for Fulham this season.
● No player has scored more winning goals in the Premier League this season than Marcus Rashford (10), while only Cristiano Ronaldo (12 in 2007-08) has netted more winners for Manchester United in a single season. Three of Rashford’s last four strikes in the competition have been the winning goal of the game.
