SUNDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Sunday’s five games with FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet. Including LIVERPOOL v SPURS at 4.30pm.
BOURNEMOUTH V LEEDS
2pm We have a massive Sunday in the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week! We have five games to enjoy, a lot more than usual after a busy midweek fixture list and we kick the day off with a big that could have a big impact on the relegation battle as Bournemouth host Leeds. This game would have been a lot more important had Bournemouth not beaten Southampton on Thursday night – that result moved them up into 14th, starting the weekend seven points away from the bottom three. It’s been a fantastic run for Bournemouth just at the right time; they’ve won five of their last eight games including wins against Liverpool and Spurs. They are pretty much safe now, and it’s Leeds who come into this game under pressure. They had a huge relegation battle midweek against Leicester, drawing 1-1 in a result that still left both sides under pressure but edged them further away from Everton. At least that draw broke a run of three losses for Leeds, but the major issue here is that they are away from home. They just haven’t been good enough away from home this season – they’ve only managed nine points from their 16 away games, the only side with a worse away record is Nottingham Forest.
We have an exceptionally open market for this game. Bournemouth are the marginal favourites at 2.7 but there’s only ten ticks between the sides as Leeds are trading 2.8 at the time of writing with the draw 3.6. It’s hard to support Leeds away from home coming into this game with their record – they have simply conceded too many sloppy goals and they don’t create as much away from home. They were slightly unlucky to lose away to Fulham recently because the game was very even, but still that highlights their poor form away because Fulham have been playing poor football lately. Ironically, three of Bournemouth’s last wins have come away from home, but they have had to play Brighton and West Ham here. I would lean towards a Bournemouth win, but I have to say the value bet looks to be the draw at 3.6. There isn’t much between these sides on paper, but obviously I’m keen to keep stakes small because you’d have to worry about the Leeds away form.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BouLee
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● This is Bournemouth’s first home league game against Leeds since a 3-1 defeat in the Championship in September 2014.
● Leeds have won 10 of their 13 league games against Bournemouth (D2 L1), including nine of the last 10. It’s their best league win rate against an opponent they’ve faced at least 10 times in their history (77%).
● Having won nine of their first 10 Premier League games against promoted sides since their return to the division in 2020, Leeds have lost three of their five such games this term (W2). They’ve lost both such away games, only losing all three against promoted teams in a single Premier League campaign twice before (1992-93 and 2003-04).
● Bournemouth have lost their last two Premier League home games, going down 2-0 against Brighton and 4-0 against West Ham. Only twice before have they lost three in a row at home in the top-flight, doing so in April 2016 and December 2019.
● Only Nottingham Forest (6) have won fewer away points than Leeds (9) in the Premier League this season. The Whites have also kept just one clean sheet in their last 18 on the road, a 0-0 draw at Newcastle in December.
● Bournemouth have lost 22 of their 30 Premier League games played on Sundays (W6 D2), going down 4-0 against West Ham in their only such game this season. It’s the highest loss rate any team has on a specific day of the week in the competition (73% – minimum 20 games).
● Leeds have both scored and conceded a goal in each of their last eight Premier League games. They last had a longer such run in league competition between October and November 1987 in the second tier (9 games).
● Each of Bournemouth’s last six Premier League home goals has been scored by a different player. Kieffer Moore is the Cherries’ top scorer at the Vitality Stadium this season with four goals, though his last strike came before the World Cup break in November.
● Having scored 17 goals in 23 home league games for Bournemouth in the Championship last season, Dominic Solanke has netted just once in 14 appearances at the Vitality Stadium this season.
● As well as leading the way for chances created (50) and assists (7) for Leeds in the Premier League this season, Jack Harrison has made more ball carries (309) and carried the ball a further distance (3479m) than any other player for the Whites in the league this term.
FULHAM V MANCHESTER CITY
2pm It was a superb week for Manchester City as they hammered Arsenal 4-1 on Wednesday night, and they travel to London to face Fulham. City have really kicked into gear in recent weeks – not only are they blowing sides away, but they are doing it with a confidence and performance level that makes you think how will they be beaten? Obviously they have been helped by Arsenal dropping points recently, but City have been putting sides to the sword for a while now. It started with a 7-0 win in the Champions League over RB Leipzig and just went from there. Fulham lost 1-0 midweek away to Aston Villa, and I know I have said this a few times this season but Fulham have been very lucky to collect the points they have this season. They are conceding an average xG of 1.9 but their actual goals conceded is only 1.3. A difference of 0.6 might seem like a small figure to someone who isn’t a fan of xG, but it’s actually the difference between mid-table and the relegation zone. The xG table isn’t kind to Fulham! They will need to sort their issues out at the back to avoid a relegation battle this season – hopefully management look at the figures and not just the results for their summer transfer plan.
Man City come into this game as the red-hot favourites. They are currently trading 1.27 at the time of writing which is the shortest price in the Premier League this weekend, even away from home. I haven’t been a fan of Fulham all season because their performance level has been poor. They concede a host of chances, and you just can’t do that against a side like City. The only negative thing to say about City is the last time they beat Arsenal they went to Nottingham Forest afterwards and dropped points! I can’t see Guardiola letting that happen again though – especially this deep into the title race. With City scoring goals and creating chances for fun, I can only see a one way traffic win here. City are trading 1.8 -1.5 goals on the Handicap which looks cracking value considering how many chances Fulham have been giving away this season. I’m happy with a very confident bet at those odds!
The Striker Says:
Four points win Manchester City -1.5 goals to beat Fulham at 1.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FulMan
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Fulham are winless in their last 15 Premier League meetings with Man City (D3 L12) since a 3-1 away win in April 2009. They’ve lost the last 10 in a row by an aggregate score of 28-4.
● Manchester City have won their last 13 meetings with Fulham in all competitions, only winning more consecutively against Watford (15 – 2013-2022) and West Brom (14 – 2012-2018) in their history.
● Fulham have kept just one clean sheet in their 29 Premier League games against Man City, a goalless draw at the Etihad Stadium in March 2004. Only Middlesbrough (15 against Man Utd) have played more Premier League home games against an opponent without ever keeping a clean sheet than Fulham’s 14 against Man City.
● Fulham have lost five of their last seven Premier League games (W2), more than they had in their previous 16 (W8 D4 L4). Having kept a clean sheet in five of their first nine league games following the World Cup break (4 goals conceded), the Cottagers have now conceded in each of their last eight (13 goals conceded).
● Manchester City have won their last three Premier League away games, last winning more consecutively between October and January last season (7).
● A win for Manchester City in this game would see them return to the top of the Premier League for the first time since February 17th. They’ve won their last seven league games, their best winning run since winning 12 in a row between November 2021 and January 2022.
● Man City manager Pep Guardiola has won 25 of his 38 Premier League away games against London sides, the highest win rate of any visiting manager to take charge of at least 10 such games (66%). All eight of his defeats in the capital have come against either Tottenham (5) or Chelsea (3).
● Kevin De Bruyne has been involved in seven goals in his last four Premier League appearances (3 goals, 4 assists), assisting in all four games. It’s the fourth time he’s assisted in four games in a row, with no Man City player ever doing so in five consecutive appearances in the competition.
● Erling Haaland has scored 33 Premier League goals for Manchester City this season, a record by a player in a 38-game season. He is one away from equalling the overall record in a season, set by Andrew Cole in 1993-94 and Alan Shearer in 1994-95 (34 goals) in 42-game campaigns. This will be his 30th appearance in the competition, with his 33 goals already more than 21 teams managed in total in their first 30 Premier League games.
● Jack Grealish has scored four goals and provided five assists in 12 Premier League away games for Man City this season, with only Erling Haaland (12) and Kevin De Bruyne (10) being involved in more. He’s averaging a goal or assist every 100 minutes on the road this term, the best ratio of any Man City player.
MANCHESTER UNITED V ASTON VILLA
2pm We have another Manchester club in action here as United host Aston Villa. This should be a good game – Unai Emery had Aston Villa playing some lovely football, and with everyone else dropping points they have climbed into sixth. They are actually level on points with Spurs now! When Emery took over it looked like a step down from Villarreal who were battling for the European spots in La Liga – Aston Villa were closer to the relegation zone rather than the European spots, but he’s done a wonderful job. After an entertaining 1-1 draw with Brentford last weekend, they got back to winning ways midweek against Fulham. They didn’t create as much as they have been recently, but it was an absolute shutout as they kept Fulham down to an xG of just 0.10. That’s one of the best defensive performances of the Premier League season xG wise. It’s a shame Manchester United weren’t as solid at the back in the second half against Spurs – once again, like the Sevilla first leg, United lead 2-0 at half-time and had the game won only to look legless in the second half and end up drawing 2-2. I know the schedule is hectic, but it’s clear that United were going to get hit with fatigue at some point. They also had the extra-time in the FA Cup Semi-Final.
You could, once again, point the finger to the subs coming on and changing the game in a negative way. Erik ten Hag needs s stronger squad for this fixture list – once we get outside the main starting XI United have a big drop in quality. It will be interesting to see what type of performance we get from them here – the fixtures just keep coming. It’s a shame for them they couldn’t win on Thursday and put the Top Four race to bed, but here we are. United come into the game trading as the odds on favourites – they are 1.82 at the time of writing with Aston Villa 4.8 and the draw is 4.0. I have to say United looked tired to me in the second half at Spurs, and there’s no rest with this schedule. I feel they are at least ten ticks too short at 1.82. Emery has this Villa side playing great football and they’ve looked full of energy too. They are unbeaten in their last ten Premier League games since losing 4-2 to Arsenal, and they put in a really impressive performance against Newcastle recently too. Coming to Old Trafford is always tough, but Villa were able to beat Manchester United when Emery first took over. I wouldn’t put anyone off the 4.8 on a Villa win to be honest, but I’m happy with a United lay at 1.82 to keep the draw on side. Even if United score first, it could be worth topping up given the way they have been finishing games lately.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Manchester United to beat Aston Villa at 1.82 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MunAst
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Manchester United have lost two of their last three Premier League games against Aston Villa (D1), as many as they had in their previous 51 (W37 D12).
● Following their 3-1 win at Villa Park in Unai Emery’s first game in charge in the reverse fixture, Aston Villa are looking to complete their first league double over Man Utd since 1954-55.
● Aston Villa won this exact fixture 1-0 last season – they’ve not won consecutive away league games against Man Utd since March/August 1930.
● Manchester United are unbeaten in 14 Premier League home games (W11 D3), the longest current ongoing run in the division. Their last defeat at Old Trafford was against Brighton on the opening weekend of the season.
● Aston Villa have lost just one of their nine Premier League away games under Unai Emery (W6 D2), with that loss coming at Manchester City in February (1-3).
● Aston Villa have kept a clean sheet in nine of their 20 Premier League games under Unai Emery – it’s just one fewer than Arsenal kept in 51 league games under the Spaniard (10).
● Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last 10 Premier League games, winning eight and drawing two. They last had a longer run without defeat in the top-flight between November 2008 and February 2009 (13 games).
● Aston Villa manager Unai Emery has won two and drawn two of his four Premier League meetings with Manchester United. It’s the most any manager has faced the Red Devils without ever losing in the competition, while he could also become the first manager to remain unbeaten in his first five against them.
● Jacob Ramsey has scored in the last two Premier League meetings between Aston Villa and Man Utd – no Villa player has ever scored in three consecutive appearances against Man Utd in the competition before.
● Marcus Rashford has scored 19 home goals in all competitions for Manchester United this season – the last player to net more at Old Trafford in a single campaign was Wayne Rooney (20 in 2009-10).
NEWCASTLE V SOUTHAMPTON
2pm We finish the 2pm games with the shortest price of the day as Newcastle host Southampton. These two had very different fortunes in their games midweek, and both games had a big impact on the relegation battle. Newcastle hammered Everton 4-1 away from home, and that result – along with other results from the sides around them – puts Everton under immense pressure to stay up now. While Southampton lost at home to Bournemouth – I said prior to that game if they won they’d still be in a very difficult position to stay up, but at least they’d be back in touch, a loss there is more than likely the final nail in the coffin. It’s not confirmed yet of course, but they are going to the Championship. It’s easy to see why Newcastle are trading the shortest price of the day – Southampton have been very poor this season and Newcastle have been one of the best sides in the Premier League. After they were taken over by their new owners by Saudi Arabia it was felt they were still years away from European football – they were in a relegation battle at the time of course – now they have Champions League football to look forward to next season! That will transform the club, bringing in higher quality players etc.
The only positive thing to say from a Southampton point of view is that they actually have more points away from home this season compared to at home. It’s been their home form that’s sent them down really – only ten points from 17 home games is a woeful return. From that point of view, they might put up a decent fight here but I feel it’s a case of how many goals can Newcastle score rather than will they win. I’d happily include the home win at 1.34 in any Acca this weekend! Newcastle are creating an average xG of 2.0 this season and they have been rock solid at the back too – they are conceding less than a goal per game. Southampton have had major issues up front – they are scoring less than a goal per game, and I feel Newcastle can keep a clean sheet here. Both Teams Not To Score is 1.73 and I feel this is a better option than picking an Over/Under line with Newcastle banging in goals for fun recently.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.73 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NewSou
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Newcastle have lost just one of their last 11 Premier League games against Southampton (W7 D3), a 2-0 away loss in November 2020.
● Southampton have won just one of their last 17 Premier League away games against Newcastle (D4 L12), picking up a 2-1 victory in January 2015 under Ronald Koeman.
● Newcastle have won eight of their last 10 meetings with Southampton in all competitions (D1 L1), winning three times against Saints already this season. They’ve never won four games against an opponent in a single season in their history, while the only side to beat Saints four times in a campaign were Liverpool in 1985-86 (including once in the Football League Super Cup).
● Newcastle have lost just one of their last 22 Premier League games against sides starting the day in the relegation zone (W12 D9), going down 1-0 at Sheffield United in January 2021. The Magpies have remained unbeaten in all 12 such home games in that time (W6 D6).
● Southampton are winless in their last 18 Premier League games against sides starting the day in the top four (D8 L10) since beating Liverpool 1-0 in January 2021. Saints have, however, drawn (4) more such games than they’ve lost (3) this season, drawing 3-3 with league leaders Arsenal most recently.
● No side has lost fewer Premier League home games than Newcastle this season (1 – W9 D5). They’ve won their last three at St James’ Park by an aggregate score of 10-2.
● Southampton drew 3-3 at Arsenal in their last Premier League away game, netting as many goals in that draw as they had in their previous six league games on the road. However, Saints haven’t avoided defeat in consecutive Premier League away games since February 2022 (W1 D1).
● Joe Willock – who has scored more Premier League goals against Southampton than he has any other opponent (3) – has been involved in a goal in each of his last three home league games for Newcastle, scoring one and assisting another two.
● 75% of Southampton’s 12 Premier League away goals this season have been scored by either James Ward-Prowse (5) or Che Adams (4). Since their return to the top-flight in 2012, only in 2013-14 (Jay Rodríguez and Rickie Lambert) and 2020-21 (Ward-Prowse and Danny Ings) have Saints had two players score 5+ away goals in a campaign in the competition.
● In Callum Wilson (7), Alexander Isak (5) and Miguel Almirón (5), Newcastle have had 3+ players score 5+ home goals in a single Premier League campaign for the first time since 2010-11 (Kevin Nolan, Andy Carroll, Shola Ameobi and Leon Best).
LIVERPOOL V TOTTENHAM
4.30pm The Premier League have saved the best until last on Sunday as Liverpool host Spurs in the prime Sunday TV slot. Both sides have had disappointing seasons because they have been giving away goals for fun, so this could be a very entertaining afternoon! Spurs were involved in another rollercoaster midweek as they came from 2-0 down at half-time against Manchester United to draw 2-2. Spurs have been a very weird team this season, they seem to only come alive when they are coming from a goal or two down, and they seemingly can’t start games at that level! It also has to be said that United looked a very tired side in the second half on Thursday, and Spurs took advantage. Liverpool beat West Ham 2-1 on Wednesday night, and that was three wins in a row for them. They have been scoring goals and creating a host of chances recently – that being said they still look dodgy at the back, and they’ve conceded in all three wins. Going forward they are still as good as ever though, and with Spurs leaking goals it’s hard to see anything bar a very entertaining game here to be honest. Both Teams To Score has won in Spurs last seven Premier League games, and that’s trading 1.67 here.
In the match odds market, Liverpool are trading odds on at 1.57 with Spurs 5.9 and the draw is 5.0. I’m sure Liverpool will be a popular bet given how many chances they have been creating lately, and to be honest Spurs have been all over the place. Most of the poorer performances from this Spurs season have come away from home too. If you fancy goals, Over 2.5 goals is trading four ticks shorter than the Liverpool price at 1.53. I feel this game screams goals, and although I couldn’t put anyone off Both Teams To Score at 1.67 or the Liverpool win at 1.57, I feel the best bet here is Over 2.5 goals at 1.53. Both sides have had so many issues at the back it’s hard not to see goals here – plus they both attack when they go behind too. We could have a real ding-dong battle with six or more goals even, however at the odds I’m confident on Over 2.5. It’s not quite a Max Bet, but it’s a very confident selection to finish the weekend.
The Striker Says:
Four points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.53 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivTtm
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Liverpool have lost just one of their last 20 Premier League games against Spurs (W13 D6), and are unbeaten in 10 since a 4-1 loss at Wembley Stadium in October 2017.
● Spurs have won just two of their last 35 away league games against Liverpool (D10 L23), winning 2-1 in August 1993 and 2-0 in May 2011.
● Liverpool have conceded four goals in their last two Premier League home games (2-2 v Arsenal, 3-2 v Nottingham Forest), as many as they had in their previous nine at Anfield. They’ve not conceded 2+ goals in three consecutive home league games since September 2012.
● Tottenham are winless in five Premier League away games, losing as many games in this run (3) has they had in their previous 16 on the road beforehand (W8 D5). It’s their longest run without an away league win since a run of 12 between February and November 2019.
● Tottenham have conceded 31 away goals in the Premier League this season, already their most in a single campaign since 2008-09 (35). They’ve only kept two league clean sheets outside of London this season, doing so in victories at Nottingham Forest (2-0) and Brighton (1-0).
● Liverpool have won their last three Premier League matches, despite conceding in each match. The last time they won four games in a row was in November and December earlier this season, also conceding in all four victories.
● Since Mohamed Salah joined Liverpool in 2017, no player has scored more Premier League goals against Tottenham than the Egyptian (7). Salah netted both goals in Liverpool’s 2-1 win over Spurs in the reverse fixture this season.
● Six of Tottenham’s last seven Premier League goals against Liverpool have been scored by either Harry Kane (3) or Son Heung-min (3). Overall, Kane has scored eight times against Liverpool in the competition, with only Andrew Cole netting more against the Reds (11).
● Mohamed Salah has been involved in 11 goals in his last eight home games in all competitions (8 goals, 3 assists), scoring at least once in each of his last six. The last Liverpool player to score in more consecutive Anfield appearances was Luis Suárez (8 in a row between April 2013 and January 2014).
● Harry Kane has scored in each of his last three Premier League away games, with Spurs failing to win all three (D2 L1). The last player to score in four consecutive away appearances in the division but not win any of them was Steven Fletcher between April and September 2012.
