SUNDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Sunday’s games including FACTMAN stats and recommended BETDAQ bets. The highlight comes at 4pm as the new champions Man City take on Chelsea.
WEST HAM V LEEDS
1.30pm This day next week is the final Premier League matchday of the 2022/23 season, but before we get there we have a cracking Super Sunday on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! All eyes will be on Manchester City v Chelsea as the headline fixture today, however we start the day with a huge game as West Ham host Leeds. It’s been an incredible week for the Hammers as they got through to the Europa Conference League Final on Thursday night. The joy was tainted a little when the players had to get involved in crowd trouble afterwards, we had crazy scenes where the AZ Alkmaar fans attacked the family section of West Ham. The Europa Conference League run has definitely taken the pressure of David Moyes as West Ham having been having a terrible season in the Premier League – they have gone from competing for the European spots to trying to avoid a relegation battle. They start the weekend six points away from Leeds, and even if Leeds win their final two games and West Ham lose they aren’t going to be caught because of the massive goal difference.
All the pressure is on Leeds here, and they’ll be hoping that West Ham take their eyes off the Premier League now and focus on the Europa Conference League Final. They could easily do that next week, and I would suggest any players carrying a knock or anything like that won’t be risked. That will give Leeds a chance, and that’s something they need because they have been woeful away from home this season. They’ve only managed nine points away from home this season and that is the main reason why they are sitting in the bottom three. They’ve also finished the season poorly – only five points from their last eight games isn’t good enough given their position. It’s hard to support them away from home, even if the Hammers won’t be fully focused on this game. Leeds always play an open game, and their main issues have been at the back as always, so I feel we’ll see goals here. Both Teams To Score looks a very nice option at 1.73. West Ham have been much better with home advantage, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a very high scoring game.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.73 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WesLee
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● West Ham have won three of their five Premier League games against Leeds since the Whites’ return to the top-flight in 2020 (D1 L1), having won just two of their 20 against them in the competition between 1993-94 and 2002-03 (D4 L14).
● Leeds won this exact fixture 3-2 last season, last winning consecutive top-flight visits to West Ham in January 1997.
● West Ham haven’t lost their final home league game in any of the last five seasons (W3 D2), since a 4-0 loss against Liverpool in 2016-17.
● Leeds have won their final away league game in each of the last three seasons, including a 2-1 win at Brentford last term to secure Premier League survival. They’ve never won their last away game in four consecutive campaigns before.
● Leeds have lost all six of their Premier League games in London this season. Defeat here would see 2022- 23 be the ninth consecutive campaign in which at least one club has failed to pick up a single Premier League point in London – Leicester 2014-15, Aston Villa 2015-16, Hull City 2016-17, Watford 2017-18, Huddersfield 2018-19, Norwich 2019-20, Sheffield United 2020-21 and Watford 2021-22.
● West Ham have lost four of their last five Premier League games. However, they did win their last home game 1-0 against Manchester United, last winning back-to-back matches at the London Stadium in October (three in a row).
● Leeds have both scored and conceded in each of their last 11 league games (17 scored, 31 conceded) since losing 0-1 to Chelsea in March. The last side to have a longer run of both scoring and conceding in the Premier League were Everton (16 in a row from September 2012 to January 2013), while Leeds have never done so in 12 consecutive league games before.
● Leeds have conceded 150 league goals since the start of last season (79 in 2021-22, 71 this season), more than any other side in the big five European leagues. It’s the most league goals they’ve shipped across two consecutive top-flight seasons since the 166 between 1958-59 (74) and 1959-60 (92), being relegated from the top-flight in the latter.
● Leeds manager Sam Allardyce is winless in his last eight Premier League games against West Ham (D3 L5), having won five in a row before that. He’s lost his last five against the Hammers (with four different clubs), while he’s also lost his last eight against West Ham boss David Moyes.
● Patrick Bamford has failed to score either of his two Premier League penalties this season, the only Leeds player to miss multiple spot kicks in a single campaign in the competition.
BRIGHTON V SOUTHAMPTON
2pm With so much at stake for Leeds and Manchester City at either ends of the table today, it will be easy to forget about the fixture in between! Brighton host Southampton with the home side looking to bounce back from another heavy defeat midweek. They lost 4-1 against Newcastle, and after a 5-1 loss to Everton recently too Brighton are leaking goals! In between those fixtures was an excellent 3-0 win away to Arsenal, talk about up-and-down! Unfortunately for Southampton fans, their season has only been down. They just haven’t been good enough this season, and they are already confirmed as going down to the Championship. They have really lacked quality this season, and I feel they will find it difficult to bounce back up too. They’ve had problems all over the pitch; they are conceding close to two goals per game and scoring less than one. Their home form has been terrible which is so important when you’re in a relegation fight – look at how poor Nottingham Forest have been away from home but their home form has kept them alive. Southampton have only managed ten points at home this season; they actually have more points away from home!
I feel the most disappointing thing for Southampton is they have went down without a fight. They’ve only managed one point from their last eight games, and it feels like the players have given up. It’s easy to understand why Brighton are trading so short at 1.25. That’s even shorter than Manchester City at home today which doesn’t happen often! The only positive for Southampton here is they have been better away from home, but the gulf in class will be too big here. It’s hard to see past the Brighton win, but obviously we’re going to have to look around the side markets for some value. Brighton like to play a very open game, and it seems they have just decided to entertain over the last few weeks – their games have been jam packed with goals! Southampton won’t sit back here given they have nothing to play for, and Brighton can cover the 1.5 goal Handicap. Their average xG created this season is 2.2, and they’re going to get plenty of chances here.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Brighton -1.5 goals to beat Southampton at 1.67 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BriSth
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Brighton have won two of their last four league games against Southampton (D2), as many as they had in their previous 18 against them (D8 L8).
● Southampton are unbeaten in their five Premier League away games against Brighton (W3 D2), with their last away league defeat against them coming in the Championship in January 2012 (0-3).
● The home side has never won in 11 Premier League meetings between Brighton and Southampton (D6 L5), making it the most played fixture in the competition’s history without a home win.
● Having lost their final away league game in just one of their first six seasons back in the Premier League since 2012-13 (W4 D1), Southampton have now done so in three of their last four campaigns (W1).
● Brighton suffered a 5-1 home defeat to Everton last time at the Amex, with the Toffees starting the day in 19th position. The Seagulls have only won four of their 18 home Premier League matches against sides in the relegation zone (D10 L4) and have lost their last two overall, also losing 3-1 to Nottingham Forest at the City Ground in April, who were 19th.
● Already relegated Southampton have lost their last four Premier League games, their third run of four or more defeats in a row in the 2022-23 campaign. Each manager to take charge of the Saints this season has had a four-game losing run (Hasenhüttl, Jones and Selles).
● Southampton have shipped 3+ goals in each of their last three away Premier League games (3-3 vs Arsenal, 1-3 vs Newcastle, 3-4 vs Nottingham Forest). They last did so in four away games in a row in their first four away matches of the 2012-13 season.
● Since winning two of their first three Premier League games under Ruben Selles (L1), Southampton have won none of their last 11 under the Spaniard (D3 L8), the longest current winless run in the division and longest for the Saints under a single manager since Mauricio Pellegrino went 12 without a win between November 2017 and January 2018.
● Players aged under the age of 21 have played 7,321 minutes in the Premier League this season for Southampton, the most by a team in a single campaign since Man City in 2007-08 (7,835). 29% of those minutes have been played by 19-year-old Roméo Lavia (2,084), who has been booked nine times. Only two teenagers have received 10 yellows in one season: Wayne Rooney in 2003-04 (11) and Lee Cattermole in 2006-07 (10).
● Alexis Mac Allister has scored seven goals in his last 12 Premier League home starts for Brighton, with all those coming in the 2022-23 campaign. Only Glenn Murray (8 in 2018-19) has scored more at the Amex in a season for the Seagulls than Mac Allister this season.
MANCHESTER CITY V CHELSEA
4pm The Premier League have saved the best fixture until last this weekend as newly crowned champions Manchester City host Chelsea. In years gone by this would be a huge clash between two top sides. This season Chelsea have been a laughing stock however, and anything bar a City win would be a massive shock now. The home win is trading as short as 1.27, and it’s hard to make the case that it should be a lay as well. So much has happened Chelsea this season that you wonder where it went wrong. Would they find themselves in the bottom half of the table if they stuck with Thomas Tuchel? Have they actually moved forward without him. The appointment of Frank Lampard has been a disaster too – Chelsea have only managed five points from their last eight games – that’s the same as Leeds, and only better than Southampton! In between that run was the exit from the Champions League, and they conceded an xG of 2.03 at home who Nottingham Forest last weekend, who have the worst away record in the Premier League this season. There’s so many negatives about the situation at Chelsea I’m sure they just can’t wait for it to be over.
Talk about opposite situations here with Manchester City absolutely flying. They hammered Real Madrid 4-0 to get into the Champions League Final on Wednesday night, and European glory is seemingly waiting for them now as they will be expected to beat Inter Milan in the Final. City have finished the season like a train, and it’s hard to see Chelsea getting anything here – I actually feel this is a case of how many goals can City score rather than will they win. Saying that against a club like Chelsea is quite something. City’s average xG created this season is as high as 2.4, and what’s even more remarkable is that they are conceding less than one goal per game too. I feel they can cover the Handicap here, and although it’s tempting to take the 2.9 on -2.5 goals, the 1.78 on -1.5 goals looks cracking value. Chelsea have conceded so many sloppy goals this season, and even more so since Lampard took over, I feel we’re getting a lot of value here. The 1.78 is worth a Max Bet in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Manchester City -1.5 goals to beat Chelsea at 1.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MciChl
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Manchester City have won their last three Premier League games against Chelsea, all by a 1-0 scoreline. They’ve never won four in a row against the Blues in their league history.
● Since beating them 1-0 in the 2021 Champions League final, Chelsea have lost their last five meetings with Man City in all competitions without scoring a single goal. The last team they lost more consecutively against was Blackburn (7 between 1993 and 1996), while they’ve never lost six in a row against a team without scoring.
● Manchester City have won all three of their meetings with Chelsea in all competitions this season – the only side to beat the Blues four times in a single campaign are Manchester United, who did so in 2010-11.
● Manchester City have won their final home league game in eight of the last nine seasons, with the exception being a 2-2 draw with Arsenal in 2015-16. Their last such defeat came against Norwich in 2012- 13.
● Since the start of last season, Chelsea have won none of their 14 Premier League games against sides starting the day above them in the table (D4 L10), losing each of their last three.
● Manchester City have scored 59 home Premier League goals this season – on only three previous occasions has a side netted 60+ in a campaign: Chelsea in 2009-10 (68) and Man City in both 2013-14 (63) and 2017-18 (61).
● Since their last Premier League defeat in February against Spurs, Manchester City have trailed for just 10 minutes and 56 seconds in the league, doing so in the first half of an eventual 4-1 win over Liverpool in April. In total, City have trailed for 228 minutes in the Premier League this season, the fewest of any team.
● Riyad Mahrez has scored four goals in Man City’s three games against Chelsea in all competitions this season, opening the scoring in each match. The last Man City player to score in four games against an opponent in a single season was Dennis Tueart against Norwich City in 1975-76.
● Manchester City’s Kevin De Bruyne has only scored more Premier League goals against Arsenal (8) than he has against former side Chelsea (5), with those five goals being the most any player has scored against the Blues having previously played for them in the competition.
● Chelsea manager Frank Lampard is one of only two managers to avoid defeat away at Manchester City in the Premier League this season, drawing 1-1 with Everton in December. The last manager to manage away at Man City twice in a single league campaign and avoid defeat in both was Gordon Lee in 1976-77, drawing with both Newcastle and Everton.
