SUNDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Sunday’s matches with a recommended BETDAQ bet. The action includes Man City v Spurs at 4.30pm.
BOURNEMOUTH V ASTON VILLA
2pm We have another cracking Super Sunday from the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! All eyes will be on Manchester City v Spurs later in the prime TV slot, but we have four fixtures to get through at 2pm. We start the day with Bournemouth hosting Aston Villa – it’s been a dream season so far for Villa. They start the weekend sitting in the Top Four, and you never know – Spurs, Man United, Newcastle and Chelsea have all been dropping points so maybe they could actually take that fourth spot. They are playing some quality football under Unai Emery, and they are full of confidence too. They notched up a win on Thursday night in the Europa Conference League but that game was overshowed by the crowd trouble with Legia Warsaw. Villa said the violence was “planned” by elements of the Legia Warsaw fanbase – annoyed at being given a very small ticket allocation for fears of crowd trouble. Police were injured, and in the end no away supporters were allowed in the stadium which made for bizarre scenes and atmosphere. They brought it on themselves though, not being a allowed in. Villa got the job done, and they’ll be hoping to get the job done here again.
On paper, this is a very winnable fixture. Bournemouth have been pretty average this season. They have managed three wins in their last four games though, and that included a win here over Newcastle who were hit by injuries. The others wins came against Burnley and Sheffield United; two sides odds on to get relegated this season. Bournemouth have been creating an OK amount of chances, but they have issues at the back. Their average xG conceded of 1.71 is the fourth worst record at the back in the Premier League, and they are coming up against a top class Villa side here. Villa come into the game as the favourites, but they aren’t trading odds on which I feel is wrong. Aston Villa are 2.06 with Bournemouth 3.6 and the draw is 4.1 at the time of writing. I feel the 2.06 is massive on Villa here; they are creating an average xG of 1.64 which is Top Six form this season. That’s better than the likes of Chelsea, Newcastle and Man United. Emery has them playing with a lot of confidence, and they can take full advantage of Bournemouth’s issues at the back – at 2.06 I feel they are worth a Max Bet!
The Striker Says:
Five points win Aston Villa to beat Bournemouth at 2.06 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BouAvl
CHELSEA V BRIGHTON
2pm This should be a cracking fixture as Chelsea host Brighton. It’s a very important game for both sides too because they aren’t where they will want to be. Chelsea sit down in tenth, and their chances of competing again quickly for the Top Four look to be gone already – turns out it’s not going to be a quick bounce back! Brighton have slipped down to eighth after an excellent start to the season – they badly needed that win over Nottingham Forest last weekend after going six games without a win. We have a very interesting market here, and I’m sure there’s going to be some big opinions either side of the book here. Chelsea are the odds on favourites at 1.78 with Brighton 4.6 and the draw is 4.4. Obviously Brighton have had a disappointing run, and of course Chelsea have played better than their bare results but I have to say I was very surprised to see Chelsea trading as short as 1.78 when I clicked into the market. They just haven’t had the results to justify that price – I know that they have been creating some good chances but they desperately lack a striker. It’s going to be hard to get away from the Chelsea lay at the odds here.
Looking at the stats, both sides have nearly the same overall performance figure. Chelsea have a performance figure of +0.31 while for Brighton it’s +0.30. That level would have you competing for the Europa League spots – in or around sixth perhaps. Brighton have been creating more and conceding more, while Chelsea create less but also concede less. Chelsea basically have the same performance level at home and away, so being at home isn’t a massive thing for them. Brighton definitely create more at home, and when you see that they concede more chances than they create away from home you can understand why plenty of punters want to be on Chelsea here. I’m fully respect the fact that Brighton have struggled away from home this season, but the 1.78 is still too short in my opinion. I’m going to keep stakes limited, but I expect a closer game than those odds suggest.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Chelsea to beat Brighton at 1.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CheBha
LIVERPOOL V FULHAM
2pm Next we have the shortest price of Sunday in the Premier League as Liverpool host Fulham. Liverpool will be fully expected to win here, and they come into the game trading as short as 1.27 at the time of writing. If you fancy a shock, Fulham are 12.0 while the draw is 7.2. This should be a routine win for Jurgen Klopp’s men, and the only question is how many goals they will score in my opinion. There’s no prizes for tipping up 1.27 shots, but they are a nice addition for any Acca this weekend! They breezed through the Europa League on Thursday night winning 4-0 against LASK and they would have been pleased with a 1-1 draw away to Manchester City last weekend. Especially since that was another 12.30pm kick off after an International Break – Klopp seems to have a huge issue with those fixtures and it always being Liverpool! Fulham managed a 3-2 win last weekend against Wolves, and they needed that after a run without a win. They are way too good to be involved in a relegation battle, but Fulham have been playing pretty average football.
Their average xG created is just 1.13 – compare that to Liverpool at 1.93! Fulham are obviously conceding more chances than that, but there isn’t a huge gap between them on chances conceded. Fulham are conceding an average at 1.53 and Liverpool’s average is 1.39 which is pretty big for a top club that’s in a title race. Usually the title winners keep their average xG conceded to around 1.0. Of course, we all know Liverpool always tend to have issues at the back. Over 2.5 goals will be a popular bet here at 1.45 but in fairness three of the last four meetings have finished with Under 2.5 goals. Fulham have actually got results in three of the last four meetings too – that could put you off Liverpool at 1.27! I like Both Teams To Score here at 1.9. I know Fulham are quite limited going forward, but you always get chances against Liverpool and I can see them finding the net at some stage with Liverpool winning in the end. Happy to keep stakes small here.
The Striker Says:
One point win Both Teams To Score at 1.9 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivFlm
WEST HAM V CRYSTAL PALACE
2pm We finish the 2pm games with West Ham hosting Crystal Palace, and we have a very interesting market here again. West Ham are the favourites, as you would expect with home advantage – they are trading 2.1 with Crystal Palace 4.0 and the draw is 3.6 at the time of writing. David Moyes was getting big praise on Thursday night after another win in the Europa League, but it hasn’t all been good this season. There are some major worries in the Premier League; their average xG conceded this season is a very high 1.73. The only sides doing worse at the back are Sheffield United and Luton Town – two sides odds on to go down. The Hammers are obviously creating more chances going forward, and that is why they are happily sitting in mid-table. It would be a surprise if they could finish in the European spots again though if they keep playing at this level. West Ham fans best enjoy Europe this season in my opinion – unless of course they pull off a Europa League win to follow up their Europa Conference League win last season!
While West Ham have been conceding a lot of chances and goals, they have been over-performing going forward. Their average goals scored works out at 1.77, but their average xG created is 1.31. Eventually they will come back down to the expected level, because that’s just how probability works over time. What makes this game interesting is West Ham are decent favourites, and Palace probably aren’t good enough to take advantage of their issues at the back. Palace only have an average xG created of 1.18 this season and they have been conceding more chances than they are creating. Of course with West Ham conceding chances for fun, they’ll get gifted a few here! The 2.1 on West Ham doesn’t make much appeal and I’m happy to stay away from the match odds market. Both Teams To Score is trading 1.91 and that looks a decent position with both sides poor at the back.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.91 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WesCrl
MANCHESTER CITY V TOTTENHAM
4.30pm The Premier League have saved the best until last this weekend as Manchester City host Spurs in the prime TV slot this week! Spurs come into this game in crisis mode after three back-to-back losses against Chelsea, Wolves and Aston Villa. They were sitting top of the table prior to this run, and it’s all gone wrong quite quickly for Ange Postecoglou since the Chelsea game. Red cards and injuries have completely messed up his system that brought Spurs so much success at the start of the season, and now it is interesting to see how Spurs handle the situation. So far, they haven’t been going a good job. They crumble in the final moments against Wolves, and although you could say they were unlucky against Aston Villa, it seems their whole mindset has changed. They can go from having the world at their feet with so much confidence, so then seemingly not knowing how to kick a ball. That is basically in a nutshell, Spurs. Roy Keane said the loss against Aston Villa last weekend was very “Spursy” – how could you disagree with him! Manchester City come into this game as the red-hot favourites – they are currently trading as short as 1.32 with Spurs 10.5 and the draw is 6.6.
City will be hoping to bounce back quickly after losing top spot last weekend with a 1-1 draw here against Liverpool. While City aren’t sitting top at the moment, they have looked by far and away the best side in the Premier League this season. They are still odds on to lift the title, it would be a surprise if they didn’t to be honest. With City trading so short in the match odds market and it being hard to see past them, we’ll have to look around the side markets for some value. Spurs have been playing a very open game under Postecoglou this season, and generally City always play an open game – they went 2-0 down against RB Leipzig here in the Champions League midweek before coming back to win 3-2! This game absolutely screams goals, and the market is expecting goals with Over 2.5 goals trading as short as 1.4. I feel with Spurs having so many issues however, City can cover the handicap here. They are trading 1.84 -1.5 goals and that looks a cracking bet to end the weekend.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Manchester City -1.5 goals to beat Tottenham at 1.84 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MciTtm
