SUPER SUNDAY: The Striker previews Sunday’s games between NOTTINGHAM FOREST v EVERTON and LIVERPOOL v MAN U both including FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V EVERTON
2pm What a Super Sunday in the Premier League this week! It’s a blockbuster day on BETDAQ Betting Exchange as Liverpool and Manchester United clash at Anfield, but we start the day with a big game at the bottom of the table. Nottingham Forest host Everton with a lot on the line here. After two huge wins recently against Arsenal and Leeds at home, Everton find themselves back in the relegation zone after losses to Aston Villa and Arsenal. While the midweek games was Arsenal’s game in hand over Manchester City, that wasn’t the case for Everton who started this weekend having played one more game than West Ham, Leeds, Bournemouth and Southampton. Although Everton have lost their last two games without scoring, they haven’t played too badly. They have finished those games with xG figures of 1.88 and 1.77. Decent figures, especially considering that their average xG is only 1.2 this season – and their actual goals scored average is as low as 0.7. They still continue to have major issues at the back – their average xG conceded is a high 1.8, but it seems Sean Dyche has made improvements. Whether or not those improvements are good enough to see Everton stay up is the big question however.
Nottingham Forest are in a different place. They started the weekend four points ahead of Everton, and a win here would likely see them out of the relegation picture. A loss would see them dragged back in – high stakes then! They will be delighted to have home advantage in such a big game because they have been a lot more comfortable at home – most of their points have come at home, whereas away they have only managed six points which is the joint-lowest return in the Premier League this season. Everton have also been woeful away from home – they have only managed seven points away all season. We have a very open market here, and for me I can’t disagree with the prices here. Nottingham Forest should be the favourites with home advantage, but Everton have been showing the signs of improvement since Dyche took over. I’m happy to stay away from the match odds market, and back Both Teams To Score at 2.1. I know Everton haven’t scored in their last two, but they produced good xG figures and they have been so poor at the back I expect Nottingham Forest to find the net at some stage. This could actually be a very entertaining game.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 2.1 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NotEve
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Nottingham Forest have lost their last two home games against Everton, as many as they had in their previous 29 against them at the City Ground in all competitions. However, this is the first time they’re hosting the Toffees since a 2-0 league defeat in September 1998.
● Everton have kept a clean sheet in six of their 11 Premier League games against Nottingham Forest. They’ve won every time they’ve kept them out, but failed to win every time they’ve conceded against them in the competition (D1 L4).
● Everton are winless in their last eight Premier League games against promoted sides (D3 L5), the longest ever such run by an ever-present side in the competition. The Toffees last had a longer winless run against promoted sides in the top-flight between April 1971 and April 1973 (9 games).
● Everton have lost 13 of their last 17 Premier League games on a Sunday (W3 D1), including 10 of the last 13 (W3). However, their three wins in this run have come in their last six matches.
● Nottingham Forest are unbeaten in their last eight Premier League home games (W4 D4), with only Manchester United (11) on a longer current run. It’s their longest run without defeat at the City Ground in the top-flight since a run of 20 between February 1995 and January 1996.
● Nottingham Forest have only failed to score in one of their 12 home league games this season, a 2-0 loss against Tottenham in August. This is in stark contrast to their away form in which they’ve failed to score in nine of 12 games.
● 14 of Nottingham Forest’s 42 goals conceded in the Premier League this season have been from outside the box, both a league-high total and percentage (33%). The last team to ship more from distance in a single campaign were Fulham in 2013-14 (18).
● Chris Wood – who scored Nottingham Forest’s equaliser against Man City in their last home game – scored his first ever Premier League goal against Everton, while at Leicester in August 2014. All three of his goals against the Toffees have come at different venues – King Power Stadium, Turf Moor and Goodison Park.
● Morgan Gibbs-White has been involved in five goals in his last six home league games for Nottingham Forest (2 goals, 3 assists). All seven of his Premier League goal involvements this season have come at the City Ground (2 goals, 5 assists).
● Brennan Johnson has scored three goals in his last three Premier League home games, while he also scored Nottingham Forest’s goal in their 1-1 draw with Everton in August. The last Forest player to score home and away against Everton in the same league season was Steve Hodge in 1982-83.
LIVERPOOL V MANCHESTER UNITED
4.30pm What a fixture! Liverpool host Manchester United in undoubtedly the highlight of the weekend – this is a fantastic game for the prime TV slot on Sunday afternoon! There’s going to be plenty of talking points around this game, and I’m sure it will take the headlines this weekend regardless of the result. Both sides were in action midweek with Liverpool beating Wolves 2-0 here and United beating West Ham 3-1 in the FA Cup. It’s been a fantastic run for United recently, and they must be buzzing coming into this fixture. Beating Barcelona in the Europa League and then lifting your first trophy for over six years is always going to be a nice week! It will be very interesting to see how ten Hag sets his side up here – he knows that if you attack Liverpool you get a lot of success this season. Klopp’s side have been all over the place at the back – they are conceding an average xG of 1.6 this season which is very high for a club as big as them. They are obviously very entertaining to watch because their average xG created is 2.2 at the same time! This weekend is absolutely huge for Liverpool in my opinion. Newcastle are away to Manchester City and Spurs have a tricky away tie too, plus we know they have been poor away from home. If those two have lost on Saturday and then Liverpool win here suddenly they are very much back in the Top Four picture. As I said in my preview of their game midweek, if they won both their games in hand they were going to be close – they have won one of those, and now this would be a big statement if they could beat an in-form United side.
United aren’t as good as Liverpool going forward; their average xG created is only 1.7, but they have been far more solid at the back. They have the confidence of a winning side at the moment – we saw how good morale was at the weekend around the Carabao Cup win. Even the manager dancing with the players shows they are in a fantastic place at the moment. This is a huge test for them though, but you wouldn’t be surprised if they had good success against this Liverpool defence. After all, a lot of sides have had success against Liverpool this season! As you would expect, we have an open market with Liverpool trading 2.54, Manchester United 2.98 and the draw is 3.75 at the time of writing. United have been absolutely superb recently, and the way they are attacking at the moment I would be surprised if they couldn’t go well against this Liverpool defence. It is tempting to back United at 2.98, but I am also keen to have the draw on our side here – I feel the Liverpool lay at 2.54 is a safer option and it offers nice value too. I would have the sides very close together in the market – Liverpool have kept four clean sheets in the Premier League, but can they keep out an in-form United side? I would be surprised if they did, and I’m happy with the Liverpool lay.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Liverpool to beat Manchester United at 2.54 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivMnu
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Liverpool are unbeaten in their last six home league games against Manchester United (W3 D3) since a 1-0 loss in January 2016. It’s their longest run without defeat against the Red Devils at Anfield since a run of nine between 1970 and 1979.
● Manchester United have completed the Premier League double over Liverpool more than any other side (8), and are looking to do so for the first time since 2015-16 following their 2-1 win at Old Trafford in August.
● Manchester United have scored just one goal in their last seven away games against Liverpool in all competitions, failing to score in each of the last three. Only once have they failed to score in four consecutive visits to Anfield, doing so between 1988 and 1992.
● This will be the 32nd Premier League meeting between Liverpool and Man Utd on a Sunday, the joint-most played fixture on that day (level with Chelsea vs Liverpool). Liverpool are unbeaten in the last seven such games (W3 D4), winning 5-0 at Old Trafford in the most recent meeting in October 2021.
● Manchester United have lost just one of their last 11 Premier League games (W8 D2), going down 3-2 at Arsenal in January. Since the resumption of the competition following the World Cup break, no side has won more points than the Red Devils (23).
● Manchester United have scored in each of their last 15 Premier League games, the longest current run in the competition and the Red Devils’ longest since a run of 17 between February and October 2020.
● Mohamed Salah is Liverpool’s all-time highest goalscorer against Manchester United in all competitions with 10 goals. Nine of those strikes have come in his last five appearances against them, with the Egyptian netting in every match in that run.
● Since the start of the 2017-18 season, no player has scored more goals against Liverpool in all competitions than Manchester United’s Marcus Rashford (6, level with Harry Kane). However, all six of his goals against the Reds have come at Old Trafford.
● Marcus Rashford and Jadon Sancho were on the scoresheet in Man Utd’s 2-1 win over Liverpool in August – the last English player to score home and away league goals against them for the Red Devils in a single season was Tommy Taylor in 1953-54.
● Marcus Rashford has scored 10 goals in his last 10 Premier League games, netting in each of his last five appearances. Only three different Manchester United players have scored in six in a row – Ruud van Nistelrooy (3 separate runs), Eric Cantona (April 1996) and Cristiano Ronaldo (April 2008).
