PREMIER LEAGUE SUNDAY: The Striker previews NEWCASTLE v SUNDERLAND and TOTTENHAM v NOTTINGHAM FOREST with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NEWCASTLE V SUNDERLAND
12pm It’s a huge Super Sunday from the Premier League on Betdaq Betting Exchange! Not only do we have two massive fixtures as Newcastle host Sunderland and Spurs host Nottingham Forest; afterwards we then have the Carabao Cup Final between Arsenal and Manchester City (THE STRIKER PREVIEW). We kick the day off early with the Tyne-Wear derby at St James’ Park – one of the most emotionally charged fixtures in English football – probably a bit of added spice after Sunderland beat Newcastle earlier in the season, and then posed for that photo that didn’t sit well with Newcastle fans. The return of this rivalry to the Premier League has been fantastic though. Probably an ideal fixture for Newcastle to take their mind off the 7-2 hammering at the Camp Nou on Wednesday night. Barcelona demolished Eddie Howe’s side in the second half, and to be fair to Newcastle they had done really well in the tie up to that. Howe has spoken of making Sunderland pay for that heartache – let’s see what happens! Newcastle come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.73 with Sunderland 5.5 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing. There’s only two points between the sides in the Premier League table, but the underlying numbers paint a different picture.
Sunderland have been massively over-performing this season. Their average xG created of 1.15 is in the bottom three attacking figures in the Premier League, and their average xG conceded of 1.65 is also in the bottom three defensively. That is relegation standard, and surely they are seeing the red flags with a view to next season – they will have to spend money this summer. Newcastle have been the opposite – they are under-performing. Their average xG created of 1.57 is the seventh best attacking figure in the Premier League – a solid enough figure, though not elite, but they should be in the mix for European spots and they have spent most of the season in the bottom half of the table. The emotion of the Tyne-Wear derby is impossible to ignore – it has a habit of producing chaos regardless of form or logic, and while Sunderland haven’t been playing good football this season, you have give them respect for grinding out so many results – and obviously the Derby always increases everyone’s level. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here as I expect an entertaining game with goals – and Over 2.5 goals looks the value call at 1.96.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.96 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLNeSu
TOTTENHAM V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
2.15pm Next we have arguably the biggest game of the weekend as Spurs host Nottingham Forest. Can we say this is arguably one of the most important fixtures of the entire season given what’s at stake – obviously the title race is over at the other end of the table. A home defeat here could see them drop into the bottom three, depending of course on the West Ham result away to Aston Villa – and while Spurs have been under pressure in the relegation battle – a loss here will really make it a reality. To have a club of Spur’s stature even uttering the word relegation is extraordinary. Spurs also had Champions League football in midweek, which is crazy when you compare their domestic form – they were hammered by Atletico over the two legs, but at least they won midweek. It gives Igor Tudor’s side a crumb of psychological confidence heading into this enormous league fixture – Spurs come into the game at the favourites at 2.32 with Nottingham Forest 3.4 and the draw is 3.5 at the time of writing. Spurs not being odds on with home advantage might surprise a few casual football fans, but they’ve been playing poor football all season.
I know Forest are below them – and have had a drama filled season going through multiple managers – but at least they’ve been playing better than Spurs. Their average xG created of 1.47 is actually better than Spurs, who only have an attacking figure of 1.3. Spurs also have a marginally worse defensive figure too – an average xG conceded of 1.47 compared to Forest at 1.45. Forest also had the added complication of Europa League action on Thursday, travelling to Midtjylland trying to overturn a first-leg deficit, but they won that on penalties. You’re less tired when you win! While this is clearly a massive game, it’s also a game that’s hard to have a strong opinion on. Both teams have serious issues scoring, they also both have had issues keeping opponents out. Neither side has been creating quality consistently; I wouldn’t have a strong opinion on the goals market anyway and it’s easy to see why that market is basically 2.0/1.98 either side. I know Spurs have home advantage, and that is important here, but on balance it’s hard to see past a very close game here and the 2.32 looks a little short. Forest have clearly been creating more, but they need to start converting their chances – a mistake is never far away with Spurs, so maybe today is the day Forest finally take their chances. I’m happy to lay Spurs from a value point of view.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Tottenham to beat Nottingham Forest at 2.32 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLToNo
