PREMIER LEAGUE SUNDAY: The Striker previews WEST HAM v ASTON VILLA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
WEST HAM V ASTON VILLA
2pm We only have one Premier League fixture to enjoy this Sunday on BETDAQ Betting Exchange as the focus is on the FA Cup Quarter-Finals. While all eyes will be on Manchester United v Liverpool in the FA Cup, we do have a very interesting market here as West Ham host Aston Villa. West Ham were involved in a huge Europa League Last 16 clash on Thursday night, and they came through that to reach the Quarter-Finals. Could David Moyes take them all the way for another magical European night? They’ll definitely face tougher opposition than the Europa Conference League anyway!
Aston Villa suffered a huge blow last weekend as they lost at home to Spurs. That was a huge blow in the Top Four race, and then the defeat was embarrassing at 4-0 too. Obviously two goals in injury time made it look worse than it actually was, but at the same time Villa only finished the game with an xG of 0.64. Villa have been so good at home this season that performance was surprising, but they have definitely lost momentum in recent weeks in their battle for the Top Four.
You get the feeling that Villa need a bounce back win here, just to steady the ship and then see what happens. There’s still a long way to go in the Top Four race. The game in hand for Spurs will be against Chelsea too, and even if Chelsea have been so poor this season that’s still not a certain three points. We have an exceptionally open market here; there’s only four ticks between the sides at the time of writing. Aston Villa are the marginal favourites at 2.68 with West Ham 2.72 and the draw is 3.75. West Ham have been one of the biggest over-performing sides this season in the Premier League, but you do have to give them credit for getting as many results as they have.
Their stats highlight a lot of red flags though. Their average xG created is 1.16 which is in the bottom six attacking figures this season, however their actual goals scored average is 1.61 which is a huge difference and why they are closer to the top of the table rather than the bottom. Their average xG conceded is a whopping 1.78 which is the second worst defensive figure in the Premier League – only Sheffield United have conceded more chances. It’s hard to have confidence in the Hammers with figures like that, especially with them conceding so many goals.
While Villa are creating more than they are conceding away from home, they have definitely conceded more goals on the road. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market, but if pushed I would lean towards laying West Ham at the odds. However, this game screams goals to me – obviously West Ham have been leaking a lot of chances and goals this season, and the wheels have slightly come off Villa in recent weeks so Over 2.5 goals jumps off the page here at 1.66. Both Teams To Score is also appealing at 1.54, but the Overs bet looks the best value for me.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.66 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WhuAst
