THURSDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Thursday’s game between BRIGHTON v MANCHESTER UNITED with FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BRIGHTON V MANCHESTER UNITED
8pm We only have one Premier League fixture on Thursday night on BETDAQ Betting Exchange, but it’s a cracker as Brighton host Manchester United. This is a quick repeat of the FA Cup Semi-Final that went to penalties, and unfortunately for Brighton, Manchester United went through. Losing those games is always tough – both sides looked tired in their games afterwards as Manchester United threw away a two goal lead against Spurs and Brighton lost 3-1 to Nottingham Forest.
That result produced a massive reaction from the manager. He dropped half the squad at the weekend for their game against Wolves, and they absolutely hammered Wolves 6-0! Some football fans on Twitter were mocking the selection, not after 15 minutes though as they were 2-0 up already! The first XI are likely to return here, they probably needed a break to be fair, and they will be well rested for this game. That’s not good news for United who have looked tired at times over the last month. Against Sevilla twice, the subs didn’t work and they finished the game poorly in the second half and then they looked out on their feet in the second half against Spurs.
They did well to win at the weekend at home to an in-form Aston Villa side, and we should have a good game here. Although United are 11 points ahead of Brighton in the table, it’s a reflection of how good Brighton have been that they are trading as favourites here. The home win is 2.08 at the time of writing with Manchester United 3.75 and the draw is 3.9. Both sides have very similar profiles to be honest. Brighton actually have better xG figures – they create more and concede less on average over the season. That’s not to say United haven’t been impressive this season, they’ve actually made more mistakes at the back though, and you wouldn’t be surprised to see Maguire go during the summer.
Obviously the weekend went perfect for Brighton. They were able to rest players and still win impressively. They come into this game in ideal shape, and United have dropped plenty of points away from home this season against the top half of the table. In April there was a stat that United had lost away from home against every side in the top nine of the Premier League table. That helps understand the Brighton price as clear favourites, but United have clearly been poor away from home and I feel the 2.08 is worth backing on Brighton.
United have had a very hectic schedule, and given the volume of chances Brighton get it’s hard to see past them over the 90 minutes here. I would be tempted to wait and see how the first half goes, and then take Brighton to win the game in the second half. Draw/Brighton is a nice option in the Half-Time/Full-Time market at 5.2 or bigger, but I’m confident on Brighton here. This fixture comes at a good time, and United will have more woes away from home.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Brighton to beat Manchester United at 2.08 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BhaMun
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Brighton have won their last two Premier League games against Manchester United. They’ve never won three league games in a row against them before, nor have they ever done the league double over the Red Devils.
● Manchester United have lost three of their five Premier League games against Brighton at the Amex Stadium (W2). It’s their highest loss rate at any ground they’ve played at more than once in the competition (60%).
● Manchester United have won just one of their last 13 Premier League away games against sides starting the day in the top half of the table (D3 L9), beating Fulham (9th) 2-1 in November. The Red Devils have also failed to keep a clean sheet in any of these 13 games since beating Spurs 3-0 in October 2021.
● Brighton have won three of their last four midweek Premier League games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday), as many victories as in their previous 31 such fixtures (D12 L16). The Seagulls did however lose their most recent such encounter, a 3-1 defeat at Nottingham Forest.
● Manchester United have lost just one of their 11 Premier League away games played on a Thursday (W6 D4) and are unbeaten in nine such matches since a 3-1 defeat at Middlesbrough in December 2002.
● Manchester United have kept seven clean sheets in their last 10 Premier League matches, with no side keeping more since the start of this run on February 12th (also Aston Villa, 7). They’ve kept 26 clean sheets in all competitions this season, with only Barcelona keeping more (27) across the teams in the top five leagues in Europe in 2022-23.
● Brighton’s Pascal Groß has scored six Premier League goals against Manchester United, more than he has against any other opponent. Indeed, since Brighton’s first Premier League campaign in 2017-18, only Mohamed Salah (10) has scored more against the Red Devils than Groß.
● Bruno Fernandes scored the winning goal for Manchester United in their 1-0 win over Aston Villa last time out. Since his debut for the club in February 2020, he’s been involved in 74 Premier League goals (42 goals, 32 assists), 21 more than any other Red Devils player (Marcus Rashford, 53).
● Danny Welbeck has been involved in six goals across his last six Premier League appearances for Brighton at the Amex Stadium (5 goals, 1 assist) and will be looking to score in three successive home appearances in the competition for the first time since January 2014 (for Manchester United).
● No player has scored more Premier League goals against Manchester United having previously played for them in the competition than Brighton forward Danny Welbeck (3 – level with Wilfried Zaha).
