PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker looks ahead to Thursday’s Premier League derby between FULHAM v CHELSEA with a match preview, FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
FULHAM V CHELSEA
8pm After all the domestic Cup action, the focus switches back to the Premier League on Thursday evening on BETDAQ Betting Exchange as Fulham host Chelsea. What is usually one of the smaller London Derbies has turned into a massive game, especially for Chelsea and Graham Potter. Make no mistake about it, Chelsea are a club in crisis. They kick off this fixture sitting all the way down in tenth position, even behind Fulham who sit in seventh! Potter is a man under immense pressure, and Chelsea are in desperate need of a win.
It’s a sign of the times that Chelsea aren’t trading odds on to win. The match odds market at the time of writing currently trades; Fulham 3.5, Chelsea 2.2 and the draw is 3.7. Even the 2.2 on Chelsea feels a little short given the way they have been playing. It was a shock decision at the time to sack Thomas Tuchel, especially after he lead Chelsea to a Champions League win, but with the benefit of hindsight that now looks to be the wrong decision.
The reality is that it was always going to be a tough call either way – but now looking at the xG figures it’s clear that Potter hasn’t improved Chelsea. At best, they have stayed at the same level but they have probably dropped on confidence and that has had a knock on effect on results. They come into this game off the back of two losses to Manchester City which is always going to be a tough fixture, but they were embarrassed 4-0 in the FA Cup at the weekend. Despite only losing 1-0 in the Premier League last week, they were outplayed and could have conceded more. Manchester City’s xG figure was 1.75 for example.
The red flags on Chelsea away from home this season have been there for a while, and if they lose again here who knows what could happen. It’s a very difficult situation for Potter – he was happy at Brighton but he had to take the chance to manage a Champions League club – however, an early sacking would leave his career in a bad spot for the moment. Even ignoring the Man City games, Chelsea arrive here without a win away from home in the Premier League since mid-October against Aston Villa. They have played Brentford, Brighton, Newcastle and Nottingham Forest since and their xG figures were 0.56, 1.17, 0.36 and 1.29.
It’s clear that they have struggled to create chances all season. They are really struggling up front, and the fact they have spent so much money on that position without success makes things more difficult! The UK media are definitely going to be on their back, and you can see them getting to Potter already who is usually calm. Fulham will be a very tough fixture for Chelsea here – they have returned from the World Cup with three wins in the Premier League and a win in the FA Cup at the weekend.
They have been lucky at the back so far this season because they are conceding an average xG of 1.9 per game which is very high. They are creating a lot up front though – indeed their stats up front are better than Chelsea and that’s what has them higher in the table. It’s tempting to back Over 2.5 goals at 1.9 because Fulham have been involved in a lot of high scoring games this season along with the fact that Chelsea have been conceding a lot of sloppy goals. However, I can’t get away from the Chelsea lay here at 2.2. They simply haven’t been playing well enough to justify those odds, especially away from home, and Fulham can get a result here to pile more pressure on Potter.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Chelsea to beat Fulham at 2.2 on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FulChe
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Fulham have won just seven of their 74 league games against Chelsea – of the 1,542 fixtures to have been played at least 50 times in English Football League history, Fulham’s win rate against Chelsea is the lowest (9.5%).
● Chelsea have lost just one of their 30 Premier League games against Fulham (W19 D10), and are unbeaten in their last 20 against them since a 1-0 loss in March 2006.
● Chelsea have conceded just six goals in their last 15 Premier League games against Fulham, and never more than once in a match in that time.
● Fulham are looking to win consecutive Premier League London derbies for the first time since April 2013 (three in a row). Having beaten Brentford and Crystal Palace this term, the Cottagers are also looking to win 3+ London derbies in the same Premier League season for the first time since 2012-13 (3).
● Chelsea have won nine of their last 11 away London derbies in the Premier League, with the exceptions being a 3-2 loss at West Ham (December 2021) and a 0-0 draw at Brentford (October this season).
● Fulham have won each of their last three Premier League games, while they last won four consecutive top- flight games back in April 1966 under Viv Buckingham (a run of five).
● Fulham have won 28 points in 18 Premier League matches this season (W8 D4 L6), already equalling their points total from their previous appearance in the competition in 2020-21 (W5 D13 L20). This is the Cottagers’ joint-best points total after 18 Premier League matches, alongside the 2003-04 campaign (also 28).
● No current Premier League side has earned fewer wins or scored fewer goals across their last eight games than Chelsea (W1 D3 L4 F5 A9). Indeed, this is the first time Chelsea have only had one win across a run of eight Premier League games since October to December 2012, while the Blues last only won once in nine matches in the league from November 2010 to January 2011.
● Fulham boss Marco Silva has won just one of his four Premier League games against Chelsea (D1 L2), though it did come in his only previous home game against them – 2-0 with Everton in March 2019.
● Chelsea striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has been directly involved in five goals in his three Premier League games against Fulham (4 goals, 1 assist), with four of these coming in two games at Craven Cottage.
