THURSDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Thursday’s game between NEWCASTLE v BRIGHTON with FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NEWCASTLE v BRIGHTON
7.30pm All eyes might be on the Europa League Semi-Finals on Thursday night, but we also have Premier League action on BETDAQ Betting Exchange as Newcastle host Brighton. This is Newcastle’s game in hand over Liverpool, and suddenly they find themselves under pressure in the Top Four race. They’ve worked so hard it would be cruel to let it slip now, but it will be interesting to see how they handle the pressure of an intense run-in. They are in the box seat – they have a one advantage over Liverpool and this game in hand.
Speaking of handling the pressure of an intense run-in, Brighton ended Arsenal’s title hopes at the weekend with an impressive 3-0 win away from home. The damage was done to Arsenal prior to that fixture – they just weren’t good enough against West Ham and Southampton – we all saw the signs they weren’t handling the pressure and they changed the way they were playing too. Although Newcastle have dropped points in their last two games, I haven’t saw the same type of signs. They created a bigger xG figure against Leeds, and the game against Arsenal was closer than a 2-0 loss suggested.
Newcastle come into the game as the clear favourites, but they aren’t trading odds on. The home win is trading 2.08 with Brighton 3.65 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing. Brighton have played some excellent football away from home this season – they sit in the Top Four on the away form table, while they drop down to mid-table on home form. Newcastle have been very strong at home, so both sides are evenly matched coming into this fixture and I have to say the 2.08 on Newcastle feels a little short.
There really isn’t much between the sides on paper. Newcastle have been excellent going forward this season – their advantage xG created is 2.1 while their average conceded is only 1.2. Brighton have very similar stats – their average xG created is marginally higher at 2.2 and their conceded is also marginally higher at 1.3. Brighton have been involved in plenty of high scoring games this season, and Over 2.5 goals will be a popular bet at 1.64 especially with how good Newcastle have been going forward.
Newcastle have been averaging under three goals per Premier League game that they are involved in however – the average works out at 2.7, so I can’t make the case that Overs should be a lot shorter than 1.64. I don’t see much value there. I’m happy with the Newcastle lay at 2.08 here; I know Brighton have thrown in some poorer performances lately so I’m going to keep stakes limited however they can definitely make this game closer than the odds suggest – especially with their away form.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Newcastle to beat Brighton at 2.08 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NewBri
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Newcastle have won just one of their 11 Premier League games against Brighton (D6 L4), though it was in this exact fixture last season (2-1). It’s their lowest win rate against any side they’ve faced more than twice in the competition (9%).
● Brighton have kept eight Premier League clean sheets against Newcastle, more than against any other side. They’ve kept a clean sheet in 73% of their Premier League games against the Magpies (8/11) – of all teams to face another more than 10 times in the competition, only Chelsea against Portsmouth (79%) have recorded a higher share of shutouts (11/14).
● The reverse fixture between Newcastle and Brighton this season took place 278 days ago, on the 13th August 2022 (0-0). Excluding the 2019-20 campaign (which had a 3-month break during lockdown), it’s the longest gap between two sides meeting in a single Premier League season.
● Newcastle have kept just one clean sheet in their last 15 Premier League games, a 2-0 win against Manchester United in April. They’ve conceded twice in both of their last two, last conceding multiple goals in three consecutive games in December 2021.
● Brighton have won eight Premier League away games this season, with only top two sides Manchester City (11) and Arsenal (12) winning more. Meanwhile, only Arsenal (35) have scored more on the road than Brighton (33) this term.
● Newcastle boss Eddie Howe has lost just one of his eight Premier League meetings with Brighton (W5 D2), winning all four of his home games against the Seagulls in the top-flight.
● Callum Wilson has scored 17 Premier League goals this season, including 10 in his last nine appearances. It’s the most by a Newcastle player in a single top-flight campaign since Alan Shearer in 2003-04 (22).
● Brighton have scored eight Premier League goals from teenagers this season (Ferguson 4, Enciso 3, Buonanotte 1), more than any other side. The last team to net more such goals in a campaign were Manchester United in 2019-20 (11).
● Deniz Undav has scored three goals in his last four Premier League games for Brighton, having failed to find the net in any of his first 14 appearances in the competition.
● Callum Wilson has scored 10 Premier League braces for Newcastle (including three in his last four games), but is yet to net a hat-trick for the Magpies. Only Sadio Mané at Liverpool (12) and Ryan Giggs for Manchester United (11) have netted more braces for a side without getting a hat-trick in the competition.
